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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - sentiment [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated market sentiment [2][13]. - Coke is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the resonance of macro and sector themes [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton (-0.25%); the position increased by 8,698 hands. The prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.0 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jinbuba also increased by 2.0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the futures contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.38%); for HC2601, it was 3,318 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%). The basis of RB2601 increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 3 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 30, weekly data showed that rebar production increased by 5.52 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.1 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 41.09 tons. The Ministry of Commerce and other 5 departments supported eligible commercial real estate projects to issue REITs. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends in production volume and daily output compared with the same period last year and the previous month. In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared with the previous period [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5550 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2605, it was 5648 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5842 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; for silicomanganese 2605, it was 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to iron alloy online, on October 30, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions had different changes. The operating rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu regions in October also changed. In January, the electricity price in Yunnan would rise, and some silicomanganese factories would reduce or stop production. Some steel mills finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon [14][16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1288 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-1.1%); for coke J2601, it was 1786.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan (-0.8%). The spot price of some coking coals and cokes changed, and the basis and spread also changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price and trading volume of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 changed. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market also had different daily and weekly price changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].

一是提升供应能力。主要是煤、气、电、运这几个方面。前三季度，规模以上工业原煤、天然气产量分 别同比增长2.0%、6.4%；截至9月底，全国累计发电装机容量37.2亿千瓦，同比增长18%；10月份以 来，国家铁路电煤装车保持在日均5.6万车的较高水平。 南都讯 记者杨文君 发自北京 在10月31日国家发展改革委召开的10月份新闻发布会上，委政策研究室副 主任、新闻发言人李超对今年的迎峰度冬工作进行了介绍。 据了解，近期，北方部分地区持续降温，多地提前达到入冬标准，社会公众对是否能温暖过冬十分关 心。 对此，李超介绍道，为做好今年的迎峰度冬工作，国家发展改革委会同有关方面，从抓好能源供应、资 源储备、应急调度等关键环节入手，为今年供暖季能源保供打好基础。 三是强化调峰能力。截至9月底，跨区输送电力最大达1.5亿千瓦，区域间的余缺互济能力显著增强；累 计建成投运新型储能装机1亿千瓦以上，提供了更加强大的调节能力；全国储气能力和管网冲峰能力较 上年都进一步提升。 李超表示，综合研判，今年供暖季能源供需总体是平衡的，民生用能保供稳价和群众温暖过冬是有保障 的。 二是夯实储备基础。截至10月27日，全国统调电厂存煤2.2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's energy supply for the heating season is expected to be stable, ensuring the public's warmth during winter despite adverse weather conditions affecting agricultural production [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has enhanced supply capabilities across coal, gas, electricity, and transportation sectors to meet energy demands [1] - In the first three quarters, China's industrial raw coal and natural gas production increased by 2.0% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, with a total installed power generation capacity of 3.72 billion kilowatts, up 18% year-on-year as of September [1] Group 2 - The NDRC is closely monitoring the situation and supporting local governments in disaster response, while also ensuring smooth channels for grain purchase and storage to stabilize the grain market [2] - Despite adverse weather conditions impacting agricultural production, summer grain production was stable, early rice saw an increase, and autumn grain production is on a solid foundation with ongoing harvests [2] - Overall, the impact of disaster weather on grain production is considered manageable, with expectations for another bumper harvest this year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices declining, while the North Stock 50 Index rose significantly, indicating mixed market sentiment and sector performance [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.63% to 3961.62 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.62%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.49%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index declined by 2.51%. In contrast, the North Stock 50 Index increased by 3.43% [3]. - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North Stock markets reached 15,794 billion [3]. Sector Analysis - Sectors such as stability, semiconductors, coal, and electricity saw declines, while the media sector surged. Additionally, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, textiles and apparel, and liquor sectors showed upward trends, with active interest in short drama games, innovative drugs, and AI application concepts [3]. Policy and Economic Outlook - Recent signals from the Fourth Plenary Session and the 2025 Financial Street Forum have released active policy signals, combined with a temporary easing of trade tensions, which have collectively maintained a high level of market risk appetite [3]. - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is expected to attract some international funds to emerging markets, enhancing the appeal of emerging assets, including those in China [3]. - From a mid-term perspective, continuous policy support for capital market optimization, clearer economic construction guidelines, coordinated macro policies, and the gradual emergence of global capital reallocation demands are injecting stable upward momentum into the market [3].

Market Overview - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% while the North Stock 50 Index rose significantly by over 3% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.63% to 3961.62 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.62%, the ChiNext Index declined by 1.49%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped by 2.51% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 1.5794 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, semiconductors, coal, and electricity saw declines, while the media sector surged [1] - The pharmaceutical, automotive, textile and apparel, and liquor sectors showed upward movement, with active interest in short drama games, innovative drugs, and AI application concepts [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - Dongguan Securities noted that recent positive policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session and the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, along with a temporary easing of trade tensions, have helped maintain a high level of market risk appetite [1] - In the short term, the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is expected to attract some international funds to emerging markets, enhancing the appeal of emerging assets, including those in China [1] - From a mid-term perspective, continuous policy support for capital market ecosystem optimization, clearer economic construction goals, coordinated macro policies, and the gradual emergence of global capital reallocation demands are providing robust upward momentum for the market [1] - The overall environment for equity asset allocation is becoming increasingly favorable due to multiple factors converging [1]

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Observe the inflection point of the weakening of the steel market sentiment and gradually reduce the spot or long positions [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, and future supply - demand changes should be monitored [2] - After the macro - positive factors are realized, the coal - coke market may see a supply - demand adjustment, and the 05 contract of coking coal tests the support at the previous high [4] - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are marginally weakening, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis Steel - On Thursday, the inventory data of steel was acceptable, with no effective inventory accumulation in the steel segment. However, the futures market fluctuated greatly, and the sentiment of positions became chaotic. After recent important events, the market sentiment may cool down. The basis between futures and spot has been repaired from a high level, but the production profit has not been effectively repaired, and it is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of weakening sentiment [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese followed the adjustment of the black sector. Their fundamentals have problems such as high supply, large inventory reduction pressure, and weak downstream demand, and prices are likely to fluctuate under pressure [2] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the trading atmosphere of coking coal and coke is average. Coking coal prices are rising, but there are more failed auctions. The price of port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is 1660 (+10), and the coking coal price index is 1343.6 (+7.0). After the macro - positive factors are realized, the black sector has declined, and coking coal and coke are relatively strong. But considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease [4] Iron Ore - After the short - term conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, commodities have significantly corrected. The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. This period has seen a significant decline in hot metal, and if the decline continues, the supply - demand surplus pressure of iron ore in the fourth quarter will increase. The expected increase in supply still limits the price ceiling [5] Group 3: Price and Data Information Futures Closing Prices - On October 30, for far - month contracts, RB2605 was 3327.00 (-3.00, -0.09%), HC2605 was 3170.00 (12.00, 0.39%), JM2605 was 779.50 (-18.50, -0.36%), J2605 was 1359.00 (3.00, 1.38%); for near - month contracts, RB2601 was 3106.00 (20.50, -0.38%), HC2601 was 3318.00 (12.00, -0.33%), J2601 was 802.50 (3.00, 0.59%), JM2601 was 1288.00 (10.50, 0.38%) [1] Spot Prices - On October 30, the price of Tianjin rebar was 3000.00 (-40.00), Tangshan billet was 3210.00 (20.00), Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 (0.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3350.00, and the Platts Index was 107.70 (-0.70). The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 (4.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 (-50.00), Rizhao Port PB was 807.00 (-40.00), and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 [1] Spreads, Ratios and Profits - On October 30, the rebar disk profit was 212.00 (-0.02), the coil - rebar spread was 1.39 (0.00), the coal - coke ratio was -169.13 (-16.45), the coking disk profit was 73.46, the rebar - ore ratio was 3.87 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions continue to boost market sentiment, but the differentiation of fundamentals leads to different price performances of sector varieties. The supply - demand of coal and coke remains balanced with high - level price oscillation, while high inventories of steel and continuous inventory accumulation of iron ore lead to price declines [1][2]. - The marginal weakening of the supply - demand pattern is the main feature of the later fundamental situation, which still poses upward resistance to the prices of some sector varieties. At the same time, there is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy levels. It is recommended to seize the upward opportunities under favorable macro and policy conditions [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The weekly molten iron output has decreased as expected. The weakening of steel mill profitability and the start of the off - season will limit the recovery space of molten iron after the end of environmental protection restrictions. Iron ore arrivals are expected to recover, and inventory is expected to increase marginally. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not prominent. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the finished product data has slightly improved, and the downward driving force of scrap steel is limited. It is expected that the short - term scrap steel price will mainly follow the finished products [2][10]. Carbon Element - Coke: Under environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is temporarily tightened, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not large. With the continuous increase in raw coal prices, coke has started three rounds of price increases. However, although the finished product prices have slightly recovered recently, steel mill profits are still under pressure, and the game between steel and coke continues. It is expected that the coke price will oscillate [2][12]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, the coal mine inventory has dropped to a recent low. The short - term fundamentals are healthy. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will oscillate, waiting for further macro and policy boosts [2][13]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost is stable, and the high output of steel supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the driving force for the price increase of manganese silicon is insufficient [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the ferrosilicon price in the short term. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward price space is limited [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Some manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase is implemented and the sales situation after implementation. If the sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][14]. - Soda ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center of gravity will still move down to promote capacity reduction [3][16]. Specific Varieties - Steel: The macro sentiment is volatile, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The spot market trading is generally weak, and the market sentiment has deteriorated. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro policy disturbances [8]. - Iron ore: The molten iron output has decreased significantly, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The spot price has weakened. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not large. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - Scrap steel: The arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the price is oscillating. The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand is temporarily tightened. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to increase, and coal mines continue to reduce inventory. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [13]. - Glass: Manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase and the sales situation. If the sales are weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. - Soda ash: After the supply recovery, manufacturers have returned to the inventory accumulation state. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center of gravity will move down [16]. - Manganese silicon: The driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic [17]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand relationship is still loose, and there is pressure above the futures price. The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the price in the short term, but the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose [18]. Related Indexes - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.57% to 2250.38, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52% to 2544.78, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87% to 2246.75 [99]. - The steel industry chain index on October 30, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.68%, a 5 - day increase of 2.52%, a 1 - month decline of 0.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.96% [101].

Market Overview - The market experienced a morning adjustment on October 31, with all three major indices declining collectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.56 trillion, an increase of 27.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,800 stocks in the market saw an increase, indicating a broad participation in the upward movement [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector showed resilience, with notable stocks such as Sanofi and Lianhuan Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [1] - The lithium battery sector was active, with Tianji Co. achieving two consecutive limit-ups and several other stocks also reaching the daily limit [1] - The Fujian sector strengthened again, with Pingtan Development achieving eight limit-ups in eleven days [1] - AI application concept stocks continued to rise, with Rongxin Culture and Fushi Holdings both hitting the daily limit [1] Declining Sectors - The computing hardware concept stocks collectively declined, with significant adjustments seen in the three major optical module companies [1] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept stocks fell, with China Nuclear Engineering hitting the daily limit down [1] - Sectors such as film and television, pharmaceuticals, and batteries saw the largest gains, while insurance, coal, and CPO sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Index Performance - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.49% [1] - The North Star 50 Index, however, increased by over 3% [1]

从财务结构看，公司总资产规模较年初增长4.17%，达到347.54亿元，资产负债结构基本稳定。尽管受 煤炭销量与价格波动影响，前三季度净利润有所承压，但公司在建工程同比增长明显，反映出其在产能 扩张与绿色转型方面的持续投入。随着后续项目陆续投产，公司盈利能力有望得到结构性改善。 甘肃能化表示，面对能源行业转型的关键阶段，公司将继续围绕"煤炭清洁高效利用+新能源布局"双轮 驱动战略，加快推进兰州新区、庆阳等地重大煤电及热电项目建设，不断提升绿色开采与低碳运营水 平，增强企业综合能源供应能力和抗风险能力。 在电力板块，兰州新区2×1000MW火电项目稳步推进，已完成初步设计编制和多项前期招标工作，强夯 工程已于9月底开标，项目建设步入实质性阶段。与此同时，新区热电联产项目也取得重要节点进展， 一号机组已于10月完成首次点火并进入整套启动准备阶段，为后续并网发电打下基础。 化工板块方面，靖远煤电清洁高效气化气综合利用(搬迁改造)项目一期已投入试生产，各单元竣工验收 有序推进；二期工程气化单元土建完工，尿素造粒塔主体建设完成，项目整体建设节奏紧凑高效。此 外，天宝公司红沙梁矿井及选煤厂项目也已启动地面储煤棚建设，进一 ...