1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

金融期货早评 宏观：美政府再次面临部分停摆 【市场资讯】1）英国首相斯塔默：在华会谈取得了实质性成果。2）美国财政部发布报告： 未将任何经济体列入汇率操纵名单。3）美参议院未能推进拨款法案，联邦政府再次面临 "停摆"危机，国土安全部的拨款或另起法案。4）美国总统特朗普称，明天上午将宣布美联 储主席人选。 1. 微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌 10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 2. 特朗普：将于明早（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【策略建议】短期内，建议出口企业可在 7.01 附近，择机逢高分批锁定远期结汇，以规避 汇率回落可能导致的收益缩水风险；进口企业则可在 6.93 关口附近采取滚动购汇的策略。 【重要资讯】1）美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。 2）美国总统特朗普：将于明天早上（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 股指：短期预计延续调整 【市场回顾】 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 关键过渡阶段。海外方面，美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on January 29, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with significant increases in precious metals and base metals, while some contracts like polysilicon and lithium carbonate declined. In the stock index futures market, some contracts rose and some fell, and in the bond futures market, most contracts showed slight increases. Considering geopolitical situations, weather impacts, and supply - demand relationships, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly, and various chemical products will also show different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of January 29, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with沪银up over 8%,沪金nearly 8% up, and international copper over 7% up. In terms of declines, polysilicon dropped over 4% and lithium carbonate over 3%. In the stock index futures market, IF rose 1.00%, IH rose 1.88%, IC fell 1.14%, and IM fell 0.52%. In the bond futures market, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.01%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.09%. As of 15:18 on January 29, funds flowed into contracts such as中证1000 2603 and沪铜2603, and flowed out of沪铝2603 and碳酸锂2605 [6][7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Each Variety 3.2.1. Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Although it is the off - season for oil demand, due to winter storms, U.S. crude inventories decreased more than expected. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026, and cold weather pushed up diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating oil storage is high, and the supply is still in excess. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran, and the geopolitical risk is rising. Considering these factors, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3.2.2. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8%, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased. The downstream operating rates mostly declined, and the national shipments increased slightly. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. Venezuelan heavy crude supply is restricted, and some refineries in Shandong stopped production. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse - arbitrage [11]. 3.2.3. PP - As of the week of January 23, the PP downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate was about 79%. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. Due to the rise in crude oil prices and improved market sentiment, PP will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [12][15]. 3.2.4. Plastic - On January 29, the plastic operating rate was about 89%. As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Plastic will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [13][15]. 3.2.5. PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The export orders increased significantly, but the inventory pressure is still large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. PVC has insufficient upward momentum in the short term [16]. 3.2.6. Urea - Today, urea prices opened low and closed high. The spot price continued to rise, and some factories stopped selling. In early February, there will be gas - head plants resuming production, and the output is sufficient. Agricultural dealers are taking goods actively, but the compound fertilizer factory operating rate has decreased. The inventory is slightly decreasing. The overall fundamentals are supportive, but a callback should be watched out for [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent commodity market is not characterized by a rotational bull market across different sectors and varieties, but rather by isolated interest from funds in certain products, indicating a lack of macroeconomic forces influencing the entire commodity market. Given that many products have reached high levels and there are signs of weaker products catching up, a prolonged adjustment period in the commodity market is anticipated [4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market has seen rapid surges in specific star products such as gold, silver, corn, PTA, and styrene, leading to speculation about a rotational bull market. However, the market's recent volatility does not exhibit typical rotational characteristics [4][6]. - The traditional patterns of the commodity market can be categorized into three types: 1. **Product Differentiation Pattern**: Products move independently based on their fundamentals, typically occurring in the absence of significant macro themes [5]. 2. **Leading Product Pattern**: A clear leader, such as the black series during the 2016 supply-side reform, drives the market, with other products following its lead [5]. 3. **Rotational Pattern**: The summer of 2023 exemplified this, with a sequence of rotations among different sectors, although the current market displays a mix of characteristics from both rotational and leading product patterns [6]. Group 2: Chemical Products Outlook - There is a prevailing market sentiment that the commodity market is in a rotational bull phase, particularly with expectations for chemical products to take over the upward momentum. However, this assessment may be flawed [7]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and nickel, has shown significant gains over a prolonged period, but their current high levels and insufficient correction suggest limited potential for further increases [7]. - The chemical products sector, while showing some promise, faces challenges: the recent surge began from a relatively high point rather than a low base, indicating a rebound rather than a sustainable growth phase. Key products like styrene have already seen substantial gains, and the leading products lack the momentum for continued upward movement [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for EB2603 and BZ2603 is changed to neutral and under observation [3] Core Viewpoints - The low point of domestic pure benzene production may have passed, with a decrease in domestic supply and a slight increase in port inventory. The overall downstream operation is fair, and attention should be paid to the downstream's intention to pick up goods. - The lowest point of domestic styrene production may have gradually passed. Attention should be paid to the actual resumption progress. Styrene maintains low inventory, and the inventory pressure of its downstream has been further alleviated [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Temporal Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is - 40 yuan/ton (+13), and the spot - M2 spread is - 140 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton). - The basis of styrene's main contract is 241 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton) [1] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 193 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 195 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton), with a US - Korea spread of 91.0 dollars/ton (- 4.0 dollars/ton). - Styrene's non - integrated production profit is 750 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.80 tons), and its operating rate further decreases. - Styrene's East China port inventory is 100,600 tons (+7,100 tons), commercial inventory is 62,300 tons (+3,400 tons), and the operating rate is 69.6% (- 1.2%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is - 11 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), PS is - 431 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and ABS is - 1330 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton). - EPS operating rate is 58.71% (+4.65%), PS is 57.30% (- 0.10%), and ABS is 66.80% (- 3.00%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 950 yuan/ton (+180), phenol - acetone is - 828 yuan/ton (- 25), aniline is 1241 yuan/ton (+70), and adipic acid is - 755 yuan/ton (+195). - Caprolactam operating rate is 76.17% (- 1.00%), phenol is 85.50% (- 3.50%), aniline is 87.61% (+10.51%), and adipic acid is 69.10% (+3.80%) [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The chemical sector's atmosphere has weakened, and the EG price has retreated. The EG main contract closed at 3938 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan/ton, -1.40% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3827 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton, -1.49% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was -119 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -37 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -665 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals in the main ports of East China this week are slightly high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is still high due to high supply and weak demand from January to February. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February. Overseas supply pressure will ease after the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants around the end of February. The demand side is weakening as the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads are accelerating their decline [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 3938 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan/ton, -1.40% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3827 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton, -1.49% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was -119 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -37 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -665 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads were accelerating their decline, resulting in weakening rigid demand support [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals in the main ports of East China this week are slightly high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the 3900 yuan/ton support level. The EG fundamentals remain weak, and the valuation has deviated from the low range after continuous increases. Pay attention to capital dynamics and the relative valuation changes of ethylene downstream products after price increases [3]. - Inter-period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter-variety: None [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including chemicals, agriculture, macroeconomics, and finance. It details price movements, supply - demand dynamics, and market trends for different commodities and financial instruments. It also offers trading strategies and risk considerations for each segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On January 28, among the chemical products, crude oil had the largest increase with a 2.082% rise, while styrene had the largest decline with a 0.745% drop [4]. Agriculture - Sugar: Facing strong supply pressure but with cost support, it may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Suggested to wait and see or conduct range operations [13]. - Corn: The upward momentum has weakened, and there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 2270 - 2280 yuan/ton [13]. - Peanuts: The market is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is advisable to conduct range operations, with the upper pressure around 8114 yuan and the lower support at the 8000 - yuan mark [13]. - Other agricultural products: Pig prices are likely to rise, egg prices are approaching their peak with an expected decline after the holiday, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Macroeconomic News - China will introduce policies to protect the rights of new - form workers, and the profit of industrial enterprises in 2025 has reversed the downward trend [7]. - The Nipah virus in India has little impact on China, and a new drug has shown antiviral activity [7]. - Shenzhen's Nanshan District has become the first district with a GDP exceeding one trillion [7]. - The British Prime Minister will visit China, and the US dollar index has dropped [8]. - There is a new wave of price increases in the global chip industry [8]. - New AI models have been released [9]. Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views - **Agricultural Products** -白糖: Affected by international and domestic supply, it is in a state of low - level oscillation. The key is to watch the support at 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [13]. -玉米: The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the support at 2270 - 2280 yuan/ton [13]. -花生: Oscillating in the short term, with the upper pressure at 8114 yuan and the lower support at 8000 yuan [13]. -生猪: The spot price is likely to rise, while the futures price is weak [15]. -鸡蛋: The spot price is approaching its peak, and the futures price shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [15]. -红枣: The price is seeking support downward, and it is recommended to short after a rebound [15]. -棉花: Oscillating in a range, with support at 14500 yuan/ton and a possible decline to 14300 yuan/ton [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals** -烧碱: The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be weakly stable [15]. -焦煤 and Coke: Pressured and oscillating weakly [17]. -原木: Oscillating in a range, with the upper pressure at 775 - 778 yuan and the lower support at 771 yuan [17]. -纸浆: Weakly oscillating, with support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. -双胶纸: Oscillating in the 4100 - 4200 yuan/ton range, and beware of the price breaking below 4100 yuan [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** -铜 and Aluminum: The medium - term logic remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments and attention to macro risks [18]. -氧化铝: The supply is excessive, and the price is low [18]. -螺纹钢 and Hot Rolled Coil: The downstream winter storage intention is insufficient, and the steel mills' restocking is nearing the end. The support for rebar is at 3000 - 3100 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is at 3200 - 3250 yuan [18]. -铁合金: The cost is supported, and the short - term trend is to go long on dips [19]. -碳酸锂: The price is strong in the short term, and it is advisable to go long above 170000 yuan/ton [19]. - **Option Finance** - **Stock Index Options** - On January 27, the A - share market showed mixed trends among different indexes. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend [21]. - The A - share index is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic in the short term, focus on the main market direction, and avoid chasing high prices [22].

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on January 22nd had more declining contracts than rising ones. Platinum dropped over 4%, PTA over 3%, and other commodities also had significant drops. On the upside, silver rose over 7%, and palm oil over 2%. Different futures contracts showed various price trends and capital flows, and each commodity had its own supply - demand and market - influencing factors [5][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low. The exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio. Supply was affected by a strike at a Chilean copper mine, and TC/RC fees were weak. The expected domestic electrolytic copper production in January decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Demand was affected by the approaching Spring Festival and high copper prices. The C - L spread was converging, and the overall supply might improve marginally. In the short term, copper prices were expected to fluctuate at a high level, and there was a possibility of a cooling market in the second half of the year [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The production rate was high, and the inventory was decreasing. The export tax - rebate policy for batteries was adjusted, and the demand for batteries was strong. After a period of shock adjustment, the price was expected to be strong, but caution was needed due to high volatility [12]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan. The US crude oil inventory increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The US called for an increase in global oil production. The demand concern was alleviated, but the global crude oil floating storage was high, and the supply was in surplus. Geopolitical risks in Iran and other regions increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate [13][14]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy oil was restricted, which affected domestic asphalt production. It was recommended to use the reverse arbitrage strategy before March [15][17]. PP - The downstream PP production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. The cost was affected by the rising oil price. The PP price was expected to be strong in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound was questionable. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [18]. Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and the downstream production rate was at a low level. The petrochemical inventory was low. New production capacity was put into operation. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [19][20]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export orders increased due to the export tax - rebate policy. The social inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still in adjustment. The PVC price had limited upward momentum [21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. The Mongolian coal customs clearance was high, and the domestic production increased. The inventory of coking coal mines and downstream enterprises increased, and the winter - storage replenishment slowed down. The coking coal price was expected to be weak in the short term [22][23]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure increased as gas - based plants resumed production. The compound fertilizer factory's production rate increased, but the downstream demand was insufficient. The inventory was decreasing, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level [24].