gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 【原油】 美委紧张局势加剧，美国扣押了一艘戴有约185万桶委内瑞拉重质原油的邮轮，消息并未引发市场关 于供应中断的担忧。俄罗斯11月海运石油产品出口量仅比10月下降0.8%，炼油厂完成检修后复工抵 消了黑海等燃料出口量下降的影响。驱动油价核心因素仍围绕供应过剩压力,她缘消息频发下油价 波动加剧,但波动幅度及持续性正呈现弱化趋势。 (责金属) 周五美国科技股下跌带动金融市场剧烈波动,贵金属冲高回落。上周美联储如期降息同时宣布购债 计划,鲍威尔强调就业下行风险,会议释放中性偏鸽信号略超预期。短期市场波动放大,黄金关注 历史高点位置阻力,如果实现突破则贵金属近期强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 上周五夜盘铜价短线回调快，沪铜盘中减仓暂时关注MA10日均线表现。目前仓量仍高，周内关注美 国前期迟滞公布的经济指标与日本央行动作。多单减仓观望。 (铝) 周五美股下跌带动商品市场整体走弱,沪铝跌破22000元。近期铝市基本面矛盾有限,社库小幅下 降,现货反馈尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势维持,短期关注40日线和布林线中轨位置支撑。 (铸造铝合金) 废 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-12 EG主港延续累库，负荷下降 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3599元/吨（较前一交易日变动-83元/吨，幅度-2.25%），EG华东市场现货价 3613元/吨（较前一交易日变动-55元/吨，幅度-1.50%），EG华东现货基差-15元/吨（环比-4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1104 元/吨（环比+52元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为75.5万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到港 偏多 ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-12 2025/12/12 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 4.60 元/桶，跌幅 1.04%，报 439.70 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 38.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.57%，报 2382.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 20.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.67%，报 2986.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 1.81 百万桶至 425.69 百万桶，环比去库 0.42%；SPR 补库 0.25 百万桶至 411.92 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存累库 6.40 百万桶 至 220.82 百万桶，环比累库 2.98%；柴油库存累库 2.50 百万桶至 116.79 百万桶，环比累库 2.19%；燃料油库存去库 1.20 百万桶至 21.69 百万桶，环比去库 5.26%；航空煤油库存去库 1.38 百万桶至 42.57 百万桶，环比去库 3.13%。 甲醇、尿素 ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.30%报 112.790 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.030 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.825 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.456 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1898 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 1898 亿元，中标量 1898 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 793 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 1105 亿元。 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-11 EG主港延续累库,检修有所增多 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3682元/吨（较前一交易日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.24%），EG华东市场现货价3668 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.60%），EG华东现货基差-11元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1155 元/吨（环比-17元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为71.9万吨（环比+1.1万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到港 偏 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $58.25 per barrel, down $0.63, a decrease of 1.07% [2] - Brent February contract closed at $61.94 per barrel, down $0.55, a decrease of 0.88% [2] - EIA's report indicates that U.S. oil production is expected to reach a record high, with 2025 production revised up by 20,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 380,000 barrels per day [2][17] - The expectation of oversupply in the global market is increasing, with U.S. oil production for December averaging 13.85 million barrels per day, slightly down from November's 13.86 million barrels per day [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.34% to 2418 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 1.7% to 3014 yuan per ton [18] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to increased supply and weak downstream demand [18] - The market is expected to remain under pressure until January due to supply-driven fundamentals [18] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.41% to 2943 yuan per ton [18] - Winter storage prices are expected to drop to near five-year lows, with forecasts suggesting prices between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [18] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber fell by 80 yuan per ton to 14985 yuan per ton, while NR rose by 15 yuan per ton to 12080 yuan per ton [20] - The market is under pressure due to improved weather in overseas production areas and insufficient demand support [20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4644 yuan per ton, down 1.07%, while PX futures closed at 6780 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [21] - The overall production and sales in Jiangsu are weak, with average sales estimated at slightly above 40% [21] - Domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to tighten, but long-term inventory pressure remains [21] Methanol - Methanol prices are stable, with Taicang spot prices at 2075 yuan per ton [22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to slow unloading pace and limited price increases in downstream polyolefins [22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins negative for various production methods [23] - The market is transitioning to a supply-driven environment with high inventory pressure on downstream [23] PVC - PVC prices in East China have decreased, with the market facing high supply and slowing domestic demand [24] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish, with prices expected to trend towards the bottom [24] Urea - Urea prices continue to weaken, with mainstream prices in Shandong and Henan at 1690 yuan per ton and 1680 yuan per ton, respectively [25][26] - The market is characterized by high supply levels and fluctuating demand, with production rates showing regional disparities [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remain stable, with the market sentiment pressured by new capacity additions [27] - Demand support is limited, and the market is expected to continue facing downward pressure [27] Glass - Glass prices continue to decline, with the average price at 1097 yuan per ton [28] - The market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and declining demand [28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 9, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and many other commodities like coke, fuel oil, and SC crude oil also had significant declines. On the other hand, polysilicon rose over 3%, and some commodities such as live pigs and fiberboard had gains over 1%. Different futures varieties showed various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market news [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 9, domestic futures main contracts were mostly down. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and commodities like coke, fuel oil, SC crude oil, etc., dropped over 2%. In terms of gains, polysilicon rose over 3%, and live pigs, fiberboard, and container shipping to Europe routes rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026 due to low copper concentrate processing fees. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, some smelters are under maintenance, and production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut meeting, market sentiment is cautious [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. The news of Nigeria's mining suspension had little impact on the fundamentals. In November, production continued to grow, and it is expected to increase by about 3% in December. Downstream production growth has slowed, and the inventory reduction process has slowed down. It is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and some countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, and US oil inventories have increased. The US is at a high - production level. Geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Libya may cause supply disruptions. The market is worried about demand, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. It is expected to trade in a low - level range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: Last week, the operating rate increased slightly, and December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries is at a low level. Crude oil prices are weak, and it is expected that asphalt futures prices will trade in a weak range [13]. - **PP**: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period. On December 9, the enterprise operating rate increased, and the production ratio of standard products rose. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [14][15]. - **Plastic**: On December 9, the operating rate increased. As of December 5, the downstream operating rate decreased. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. India's policy changes have limited impact, and export orders have decreased. Social inventories are high, and it is expected to trade in a weak range [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened low and closed low, dropping over 2% on the day. The price of some spot products decreased. At the end of the year, imported coal impacts the domestic market. Coal production is at a high level, but some factories may reduce production. Inventories are not well - transferred, and the iron - water output decreased. The market is in a weak state [19][20]. - **Urea**: Opened low and closed low, trading weakly on the day. Spot prices are stable on the surface but decreasing in reality. The supply of gas - based plants decreased, and the cost support is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and the inventory reduction rate will slow down. The market has some support from exports and winter storage [21].

纯碱玻璃周报——2025.12.08 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供增需减预期仍存 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.74%（环比+0.66%），氨碱法90.85%（环比+2.45%），联碱法70.95%（+2.89%)； 周产量70.39万吨（环比+0.58万吨），轻碱产量32.24万吨（+0.73万吨），重碱产量38.15万吨 （-0.15万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需75.27万吨（-0.24万吨），轻碱表需33.53万吨（+0.38万吨），重碱表需41.75万吨 （-0.61万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存153.86万吨（-3.13万吨），轻碱库存72.78万吨（-0.67万吨），重碱库存 81.08万吨（-2.46万吨）。 4.核心逻辑 本周纯碱现货价格持稳运行，随着前期检修装置的陆续恢复，预计纯碱供应压力将有所提升， 后续需关注新增产能装置投产带来的供应增量情况。需求端，浮法及光 ...

周期论剑电话会议 顺周期跨年行情推荐 20251207 摘要 预计明年初货币政策可能宽松，金融监管总局下调保险公司权益入市风 险因子并拓宽券商资本空间，提升市场风险偏好。12 月至 2 月或是政策、 流动性和基本面向上共振的窗口期，建议关注科技成长、大金融和周期 类资产。 预计 2026 年全 A 股非金融业绩增长约 10.6%，股市盈利不再仅依赖传 统周期行业。未上市保险公司将在 2026 年实行新会计准则，预计保险 资金入市增量可能超过万亿，改善流动性环境。 重申航空板块前景乐观，预计 2025 年第四季度行业大幅减亏并全年扭 亏，2026 年需求增长将驱动票价和盈利上行，建议逆向布局航空超级 周期，包括国航、吉祥、东航、南航及春秋航空等公司。 预计第四季度及全年原油轮盈利创十年来新高，中东和南美原油增产效 应显现，印度缩减俄油进口驱动运价飙升。推荐中远海能、招商轮船、 招商南油、中国船舶租赁等公司。 化工板块目前处于底部状态，部分品种开始修复，反内卷政策推动带来 利好。应积极配置具备成本优势且新增产能带动业绩提升的龙头企业， 如煤化工龙头华鲁恒升。关注磷酸铁锂电解液、正丁醇、新醇等品种价 格上涨带来的投 ...

（来源：福能期货） 来源：福能期货 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考，在任何情况下不作为您的投资依据，据此入市，风险自担。因本平台暂 时无法设置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢 您的理解与配合！ 美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，基本符合市场预期。同时，9月实际个人消费支出环比意外持平，前值由上涨0.4%下修为 0.2%。另外，12月密歇根大学一年期通胀预期降至4.1%，创今年1月以来最低，5年通胀预期也降至3.2%。通胀数据符合预期为12美联储降息提供支持。 此外，11月末央行黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，是央行继去年11月重启增持后，连续第13个月增持黄金。综合来看，美国通胀符合预期、 就业市场不确定性较强、零售数据不及预期强化12月美联储降息预期，加之俄乌冲突扰动仍存、日元加息令避险情绪难以实质降温，预计金价震荡偏强。 中长期来看，受全球政治经济不确定、美元信用体系冲击等因素影响下，金价牛市基础仍存。建议前期多单底仓续持，并可考虑买入 ...