Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for industrial silicon is not deep [1]. - The sentiment at the polysilicon industry conference is positive, which may boost the market [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price is 8,850 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 208,226 lots and an open interest of 241,016 lots; PS2605's closing price is 51,195 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 13,013 lots and an open interest of 39,092 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +500 yuan/ton; polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - feed) is +2555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 53500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2281.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 5474 yuan/ton; the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton; Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton, Ningxia washed coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton; Maoming petroleum coke is 1400 yuan/ton, Yangzi petroleum coke is 2340 yuan/ton; graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.53 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.435 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.738 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is 1906 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is 23800 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 40 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Yunnan Province issued the "Implementation Rules of the <Eco - protection Compensation Regulations> of Yunnan Province", aiming to establish a power - generating enterprise feedback mechanism, extracting ecological protection compensation funds from hydropower and photovoltaic enterprises based on power generation, operating income, or carbon sink losses for ecological restoration and efficient water resource utilization [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 2. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].

| 国内太阳能级多晶硅成交价 产品 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 均价 | 波动 | 波动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | n型复投料成交价 | | - | 1 | 1 | - | | n型致密料成交价 | | | | | | | p型多晶硅成交价 | | | | | - | | n型颗粒硅成交价 | | | | | | | 单位:万元/吨 | | | | 更新日期: | 2026-2-4 | 智通财经APP获悉，据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅主流产品均无报价，且无成交。本周市场观望情绪较上 周进一步加剧，新单签约完全停滞，仅极个别企业存在小额试探性询价。下游普遍以消化现有库存为 主，采购意愿极度低迷。 当前市场僵局深化的核心原因在于：第一，尽管白银价格近期出现回落，但银浆等关键辅材的绝对价格 仍处高位，电池片生产成本压力尚未缓解，下游对硅料价格的接受度持续受限。第二，春节临近，下游 硅片、电池片企业的开工计划不确定性增强，短期采购需求有所延后，而同期硅料企业停产减产在一定 程度上缓解了供应压力，供需两方面因素导致市场观望僵局进一步深化。 据硅业分会统计，1月份国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polysilicon market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with no quotations or transactions reported for mainstream products this week. The market sentiment has worsened, leading to a complete halt in new contract signings, with only a few companies engaging in minor exploratory inquiries [1] - The deepening market deadlock is attributed to high absolute prices of key materials like silver paste, which continue to exert cost pressure on battery production. This has limited the downstream acceptance of polysilicon prices. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the operational plans of downstream silicon wafer and battery manufacturers ahead of the Spring Festival has delayed short-term procurement needs [1] - In January, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 102,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The reduction mainly came from companies like Yongxiang Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Lihau Qingneng, while increases were noted from companies like Nanfang Glass and Tianrui. The production plan for February is set to further decrease to below 85,000 tons, aligning supply with demand [1] Group 2 - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in the short term, with sluggish demand before the Spring Festival and supply contraction continuing to dominate the market outlook. Significant price fluctuations are unlikely [2] - After the Spring Festival, as some downstream companies gradually release their rigid procurement needs, order transactions are expected to slowly resume, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range based on the cost lines of enterprises [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to market sentiment changes in industrial silicon and the situation of the Beijing meeting in polysilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,815 yuan/ton, with a volume of 256,241 lots, and an open interest of 234,800 lots. PS2605 closing price is 50,000 yuan/ton, with a volume of 18,297 lots, and an open interest of 38,411 lots [1] - Industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 35 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the continuous - first inter - period is 51.2 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 120.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium to East China Si5530 is + 535 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type re - investment material is + 3750 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53500 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 are - 2316.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 5509 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 33.3 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Costs - The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Downstream Products of Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - The prices and profit situations of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit is 1912 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 23650 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 360 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6233 newly - established on - record new energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaics) nationwide, including 36 wind power projects, 6190 photovoltaic power generation projects (48 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects and 6142 industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects), and 7 biomass power generation projects [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel market is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - In February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in the stainless - steel industry, and the nickel - iron expectation provides a bottom support [2][6]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the futures market shows a strong performance [2][12]. - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to the situation of the Beijing meeting [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 134,830, down 5,180 from T - 1, down 11,280 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585, up 165 from T - 1, down 955 from T - 5, etc [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 663,364, down 144,776 from T - 1, up 139,968 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 377,013, down 247,788 from T - 1, down 102,979 from T - 5, etc [6]. Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" [6]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [7]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [9]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0; the trend intensity of stainless - steel is 0 [11]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 148,100, up 15,660 from T - 1, down 31,500 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the 2605 contract was 619,542, down 24,772 from T - 1, up 237,229 from T - 5, etc [12]. Macro and Industry News - Shanghai will deepen the construction of an international economic center, carry out technological transformation and upgrading in industries such as petrochemical and steel, and support the development of new energy vehicle and other industries [13][14]. - The "250,000 - ton/year electrolyte solvent project" of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has been fully put into production [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,815 yuan/ton, up 20 from T - 1, down 45 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 50,000 yuan/ton, up 2,950 from T - 1, down 1,900 from T - 5 [16]. Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6,233 newly - added on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household - use photovoltaics) in China, including 36 wind - power projects, 6,190 photovoltaic projects, and 7 biomass - power generation projects [15][16]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 [18].

Copper - Copper prices have stabilized slightly overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining an import window closure status [3][13] - The US ISM manufacturing index for January rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February 2022, driven by robust growth in new orders and output [3][13] - China's January manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][13] - LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 174,675 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 1,859 tons to 525,967 tons [3][13] - The market is facing short-term price pressure due to weak fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival, with potential support testing in the range of 95,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [3][13] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.91% to $17,045 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.83% to 132,670 yuan per ton [14][15] - LME inventory decreased by 756 tons to 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 302 tons to 46,574 tons [14][15] - Despite market sentiment dragging prices down, there are concerns about tight resource supply, which may support boundary costs [14][15] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - The price of alumina showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan per ton, up 1.18% [16] - SHFE aluminum experienced a decline, with AL2603 closing at 23,520 yuan per ton, down 2.12% [16] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disturbances, causing inventory to gradually accumulate [16] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,795 yuan per ton, down 1.18% [17] - Polysilicon prices also fell, with the main contract closing at 47,050 yuan per ton, down 1.66% [17] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, impacting overall supply [17] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures dropped to 132,440 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices falling by 7,500 yuan to 160,500 yuan per ton [18] - Weekly production decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [18] - The market sentiment is currently negative, with prices under pressure, but strategic stocking demand from downstream may provide some support [18]

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 4 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 2）新华社 12 月 12 日从商务部获悉，商务部、海关总署日前印发公告，决定对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理。公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。 3）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 高位出分歧，锂价大幅回落 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-2 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：西北减产落地，需求进入淡季 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产7.36 万吨，环比-3.48%；全国开炉210 台，环比-7台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.10 万吨，环比-0.04%，开炉数环比不变。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比不变。四川地区周产 0万吨。 | | | | （3）12月产量39.71万吨，环比-1.15%，同比+19.75%；1月排产3 ...