Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing capacity regulation policies in the pig industry, recommending a "platform + ecosystem" model represented by Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [3] - The report highlights the need to shift from a cyclical perspective to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [6][17] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - In May, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a stable capacity within the green regulatory range [6][16] - The average pig price rose to 14.66 CNY/kg, with the complete cost for leading enterprises dropping to around 12 CNY/kg, suggesting a favorable profit outlook [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong financial performance, such as Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent chicken seedlings remains high, with the average price at 47.93 CNY, reflecting a 5.25% increase [7][18] - The report notes a persistent contradiction between high production capacity and weak consumption in the white feather chicken industry, leading to potential market share gains for integrated enterprises [7][18] - Key investment targets include leading companies in imported breeding stock and fully integrated enterprises like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a recovery in aquaculture profitability due to rising fish prices and falling feed prices, with expectations for a rebound in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [8][19] - The leading companies are expected to improve their market share and cash flow as the capital expansion phase ends [8][19][21] 4. Pet Industry - The report indicates strong performance from domestic pet brands during the Tmall 618 sales event, with brands like Guibao and Zhongchong showing significant growth [11][22] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a focus on brands that demonstrate continuous high growth and strong overseas performance [11][22] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes a significant reduction in grain imports, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in the first five months of 2025, which may support price recovery [12][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply and the need for price increases to enhance farmers' income [12][29] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report states that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3922 points, reflecting a 1.95% increase, while the agriculture index rose by 0.80% [30][31] - The report highlights the overall stability in the pig market, with average prices showing a slight decline due to seasonal consumption effects [52]

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience and growth potential of the logistics and procurement sector in China, with a total social logistics volume of 138.7 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [2] - China's foreign trade shows unique resilience, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months, marking a 2.5% year-on-year increase [2] - The industrial sector's profit has seen a slight decline, with profits totaling 2.72 trillion yuan in the first five months, down 1.1% year-on-year, influenced by insufficient effective demand and declining industrial product prices [2] - The small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector is rapidly developing, with over 60 million SMEs expected by the end of 2024, and significant growth in revenue for large-scale industrial SMEs [2] Industry Analysis - The pet food industry shows strong consumer resilience, with pet food sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a robust growth trend [7][8] - The report identifies a shift towards health-oriented and refined pet food products, with emerging categories like air-dried and baked food experiencing rapid growth [7] - The export of pet food has faced challenges due to tariff disruptions, with a 5.52% year-on-year decline in export volume in May, but the long-term impact is expected to be manageable [9] - The oil service engineering sector is experiencing high demand due to increased capital expenditure in the upstream oil and gas sector, with significant revenue growth projected for companies like CNOOC [11][12][15] - The report forecasts that CNOOC's capital expenditure will range from 125 billion to 135 billion yuan in 2025, driving further growth in oil service engineering business [14][15]

余欢擅长成长股投资，具有成长属性的新消费领域是他的重点关注方向之一。余欢表示后续将继续积极 关注成长股方向，一是行业竞争格局改善、企业进入利润释放期、估值偏低有望重估的港股科技互联网 板块；二是处于高速发展阶段的新消费领域，包括潮玩、美容护理、宠物食品等；三是受益AI技术驱 动的子行业，包括机器人、智能驾驶、AI端侧应用等。 免责声明：本通讯所载信息来源于本公司认为可靠的渠道和研究员个人判断，但本公司不对其准确性或 完整性提供直接或隐含的声明或保证。此通讯并非对相关证券或市场的完整表述或概括，任何所表达的 意见可能会更改且不另外通知。此通讯不应被接受者作为对其独立判断的替代或投资决策依据。本公司 或本公司的相关机构、雇员或代理人不对任何人使用此全部或部分内容的行为或由此而引致的任何损失 承担任何责任。未经长城基金管理有限公司事先书面许可，任何人不得将此报告或其任何部分以任何形 式进行派发、复制、转载或发布，且不得对本通讯进行任何有悖原意的删节或修改。基金管理人提醒， 每个公民都有举报洗钱犯罪的义务和权利。每个公民都应严格遵守反洗钱的相关法律、法规。投资须谨 慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, particularly focusing on the pet food sector [2]. Core Insights - The pet consumption market shows strong resilience and growth potential, with a total sales figure of 75 billion yuan during the 618 shopping festival, contributing to an overall e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan [3][17]. - The report highlights two key trends: the dominance of cat food in sales rankings and the increasing demand for health-oriented and specialized pet food products [3][20]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with significant improvements in rankings for brands like Xianlang and Frigate, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards local products [4][21]. Summary by Sections 1. 618 Shopping Festival Performance - The 618 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, with pet food sales reaching 75 billion yuan, showcasing strong consumer demand [3][17]. - Cat food products dominated the sales rankings, with all top 10 brands in the cat food category also appearing in the overall top 10 sales list [3][18]. - Health-oriented and specialized pet food categories, such as air-dried and baked food, are experiencing rapid growth, reflecting a trend towards more refined pet care [20][24]. 2. Brand Performance and Market Trends - Domestic brands are increasingly prominent, with Xianlang rising to the top position in the pet food category, and Frigate improving its ranking significantly [4][21]. - The report notes that pet supplies are also gaining traction, with brands like Xiaopei and Xucuihua entering the top 20 sales rankings [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of health and specialization in pet food, with brands like Royal Canin and Frigate making notable appearances in various categories [20][24]. 3. E-commerce Channel Preferences - Different e-commerce platforms exhibit varying consumer preferences, with JD.com showing a higher representation of overseas brands compared to Tmall [5][27]. - New brands are emerging rapidly on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, with established brands like Maifudi maintaining strong positions [5][30]. - The export of pet food is facing temporary disruptions due to tariffs, but the overall impact is expected to be manageable as companies adapt by expanding production in non-US markets [5][33]. 4. Long-term Outlook - The domestic pet food market is expected to continue its steady growth, with local brands reshaping the market landscape and improving their market share and profitability [5][33]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pet food sector, such as Zhongchong Co., Ltd., Petty Co., Ltd., and other prominent players like Guobao Pet [5][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth and market leadership of Guibao Pet, a Chinese pet food company, which has become a significant player in the domestic pet food industry, particularly through its brand Maifudi, achieving substantial sales and market presence during the 618 shopping festival. Company Overview - Guibao Pet's stock price reached 107.55 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 430 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [3] - The founder, Qin Hua, transitioned from being a middle school physics teacher to a successful entrepreneur, amassing a fortune in the high-end pet food sector [4][5] - Qin Hua holds about 53.24% of the company's shares, valued at approximately 230 billion yuan based on the latest market capitalization [5] Market Potential - According to Goldman Sachs, the number of pets in urban China is expected to exceed 70 million by 2030, indicating a growing market for pet-related products [6] - The pet consumption market is projected to grow by 7.5% in 2024, surpassing 300 billion yuan, with pet food being a significant segment [6][7] Product Offerings - Guibao Pet offers over 1,300 products across three main categories: pet snacks, wet food, and dry food, focusing on high-quality ingredients [7] - The company has achieved a gross margin of 42.27%, which is higher than many competitors in the industry [10] Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company has significantly increased its sales expenses from 167 million yuan in 2018 to 1.055 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 35% [11] - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin contributed 37.72% of Guibao's revenue in 2024, showcasing the effectiveness of its digital marketing strategies [11] Recent Developments - Guibao Pet's stock has seen multiple shareholder sell-offs, with the second-largest shareholder reducing their stake by 3%, generating a profit of 1.08 billion yuan [15][16] - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new factory in Thailand, which is expected to double its output and enhance its competitive edge [17]

Summary of Petty Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Petty Co. - **Industry**: Pet Food and Treats Key Points and Arguments Production Capacity and Market Demand - Southeast Asia factories have a total production capacity of 26,000 tons, sufficient to meet U.S. market demand for the next two years [2][3] - The Cambodia factory focuses on high-priced products, with an annual output value close to 500 million RMB when fully operational [2][3] - The Vietnam factory has added 2,000 tons of capacity, with an expected annual output value of 800-900 million RMB when fully operational [2][3] Impact of Tariffs - The company plans to share the burden of the 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Vietnam and Cambodia with customers, as current major clients have not requested the company to absorb the tariff [2][5] - The company will continue to negotiate with clients to adapt to future policy changes [5] Market Performance - The U.S. market accounts for approximately 65% of the company's contract manufacturing business, expected to remain stable this year [6][7] - Significant growth is observed in the European market, particularly in the UK and Canada, driven by offline supermarket clients [2][5] - Orders in the U.S. market are normal and unaffected by tariff increases, with third-quarter orders expected to be on par with the previous year [7] Brand Performance - The proprietary brand "Jueyan" is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 50%, with projected revenue for the first half of the year between 400 million and 450 million RMB [4][10] - The "Haodangjia" brand is anticipated to continue expanding in the second half of the year [4] Financial Performance - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue primarily due to adjustments in customer order delivery cycles and increased sales expenses [4][11] - The company expects the gross profit margin to remain stable in the second quarter, with sales expenses continuing to rise [11] Currency Exchange and Material Costs - The company has experienced stable raw material prices, including chicken, with no significant fluctuations [10] - The impact of currency fluctuations, particularly the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and appreciation of the RMB, is being monitored, with potential negative effects on business if the RMB continues to strengthen [8][12] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company plans to launch new products, including cat food, to capture a larger market share [12] - The "Jueyan" brand is positioned in the mid to high-end market, while "Haodangjia" targets the mid-range market [12] Sales Channels - The majority of sales currently come from online channels, with a focus on expanding into offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets like Sam's Club [13] - The company has successfully entered Sam's Club with its "Jueyan" duck jerky product, which aligns with the brand's positioning [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant growth from the New Zealand high-end staple food brand "Smart Balance," expected to receive certification by early July 2025 [15][16] - The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market competitiveness and meet consumer demand for high-quality imported products [15][16]

宠物行业专家 - 2025 年中期策略会 20250625 摘要 线上平台表现分化：天猫增长放缓，受限于补贴不足和流量匮乏，对中 小商家不友好；抖音受益于社交属性和高额补贴，增长超预期，尤其利 好新品推广；京东维持个位数增长，整体表现平稳。 2025 年 618 期间，各平台 ROI 和折扣策略差异显著：抖音国货品牌 ROI 较高，新品牌或中小高客单价品牌 ROI 较低；天猫采取直接立减策 略，成熟品牌 ROI 较高，新品牌 ROI 较低。 乖宝宠物旗下麦富迪因品牌拆分导致天猫榜单排名下滑，但整体体量依 然良好；弗列加特受小红书负面宣传影响，市场表现受到冲击。 中宠股份旗下顽皮品牌通过小金盾系列成功扭转品牌定位，实现销量增 长，但复购率仍待验证；卫仕品牌聚焦单一品类，但受佩蒂压制，品牌 势能不足，表现不佳。 佩蒂股份内部实行品牌赛马机制，爵宴品牌在高端狗零食领域占据优势， 但直营端拉新增长放缓；好世家品牌依赖淘客，数据萎缩；爵宴向猫产 品拓展战略存在风险。 Q&A 请分析 2025 年 618 期间天猫、抖音、京东等主要线上平台宠物食品板块的 销售额及增速情况，并指出超预期和低于预期的平台及其主要原因，同时展 ...

Group 1: Market and Performance Review - The light industry and textile apparel sectors have outperformed the CSI 300 index, with textile apparel rising by 2.05% and light industry by 2.43% as of June 24, 2025 [21][22] - In Q1 2025, the light industry saw a revenue decline of 0.78% year-on-year, while the textile apparel sector experienced a 13.33% decline in revenue [25][29] - The light industry’s net profit decreased by 18.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the textile apparel sector's net profit fell by 5.56% [25][29] Group 2: Home and Electric Two-Wheeler Industries - The home and electric two-wheeler sectors are expected to benefit from the deepening of the old-for-new policy, which is anticipated to improve demand and sales [37][44] - In the first five months of 2025, the retail sales of furniture increased by 21.40% year-on-year, significantly boosted by the old-for-new policy [43][44] - The electric two-wheeler industry faced challenges, with a projected 10.55% decline in sales for 2024, but the old-for-new policy is expected to support sales recovery [59][65] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The "谷子" economy, driven by Z generation consumers who value emotional and self-satisfying purchases, is projected to reach a market size of 1,689 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 40.63% year-on-year [7][79] - The pet food market is expected to grow to 3,002 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant increase in consumer preference for domestic brands [97][105] - The sanitary products market is also evolving, with non-leading domestic brands showing potential for growth due to the rise of e-commerce and consumer preferences for single products [7][105]

文｜《好博会》报道组 张俊 【期数】 No.57 【人物】 卫仕联合创始人 吕少骏 【 TA 说】 宠物寿命有限，哪怕能让它健健康康地多活一天，就让我们所有的努力，有了结结实实的 意义。 吕少骏至今仍然清楚记得，儿时陪伴了自己多年的猫咪在它8岁那年离开了。 年幼的他当时还不懂，以为猫的寿命就是那么短。后来他才知道，原来猫是可以活到15- 20岁的。 但它为什么没有活到这个年纪？ 他总结为喂养习惯问题。早年中国人养宠物大多是工具属性，比如抓老鼠、看家护院，喂的 也是剩菜剩饭，往往会忽视宠物的营养和健康问题。 这段童年记忆也在他的心里种下了一颗创业的种子，那就是要为中国的宠物健康做一些事， 让宠物们活得更健康一些，与主人的陪伴时间更久一些。 6月27—29日，在北京展览馆，卫仕将带着他们研发的宠物食品亮相首届美好生活博览 会。届时，卫仕的"余粮碗"公益活动也将暖心上线，现场观众参与"不弃养承诺"打卡行 动，即可领取"余粮碗套装"，为流浪小猫带去一份温暖与关爱。 创业初心 让宠物活得更健康一些 2005 年，国内宠物食品赛道几乎还处于蛮荒期，也就是在那年，一群年轻人怀揣着让宠物 活得更健康一些的初心，创立了卫仕品牌 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will implement seven rate cuts in 2026, starting in March, with the final rate expected to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, which is 175 basis points lower than the current rate of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions from the central bank in the second half of the year, with a possible rate cut of 30 basis points and a reserve requirement reduction of 0.5 percentage points [3] - CITIC Securities suggests that the central bank may provide liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts, especially considering the increased demand for liquidity from financial institutions due to accelerated government bond issuance [5] Group 2: Technology and Innovation - BlackRock expresses optimism about the potential for more "DeepSeek moments" in China's biotechnology, automation, and autonomous driving sectors, indicating a favorable environment for strong innovation in these tech companies [2] - CITIC Securities highlights the acceleration of AI application monetization overseas, predicting that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AI agents in various sectors, with early adopters likely to see cost reductions and performance improvements [4] - CITIC Securities also notes that the market for sensors used in humanoid robots is expected to reach 11.9 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the increasing deployment of humanoid robots and declining hardware costs [7] Group 3: Consumer and Market Trends - CITIC Jiantou focuses on investment opportunities in the pet sector, noting that the pet food market remains vibrant with significant growth potential, particularly for domestic brands amid ongoing trends of domestic substitution [3] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of energy companies that can increase production and reduce costs, particularly in light of potential disruptions to oil supply and the upward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025-2026 [6]