工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 工业硅触底反弹，多晶硅情绪消退 市场分析 2025-12-23，工业硅期货价格偏震荡走高，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一日结算变化 （145）元/吨，变化（1.68）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓213776手，2025-12-22仓单总数为9175手，较前一 日变化156手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 工业硅： SMM统计12月18日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.3万吨，较上周变化-1.43%。其中社会普通仓库13.8万吨，较上 周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库41.5万吨(含未注册成仓单及现货库部分)较上周减少1万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，多晶硅周度产量基本稳定，12 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with the US API crude oil inventory rising. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and various asset classes show different trends [1][6]. - A-shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume, potentially accumulating momentum for a cross - year market [23]. - The bond market is approaching a critical point, with a higher probability of short - term adjustment than direct upward movement [25]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and gold prices first declined and then rose. Gold and silver are still in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the risks and increased volatility caused by short - term profit - taking of long positions [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [12][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Q3 GDP growth was the fastest in two years. The market risk appetite remains high, and the US stock market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward trend [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume on December 23. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [21][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 59.3 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan on the day. The long - term varieties are bottom - building. It is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy at low prices and exit quickly [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the Changzhi market showed mixed trends. Currently, coking coal supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream restocking [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated coils. The global crude steel output in November decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy [29][31][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture pledged 18.5 million shares. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 03 contract and consider long positions for far - month contracts at low prices [34]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts was adjusted. The polysilicon inventory is still accumulating, and demand is weak. It is expected that the spot price may be difficult to fall, but it depends on whether the price increase can be passed on to downstream industries. It is recommended that investors hold positions cautiously [35][36][38]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The designated delivery warehouse and quality inspection institution of industrial silicon futures were adjusted. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on the production reduction rhythm of enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [38][41][42]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to trade with a volatile strategy [43]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc had a backwardation. The short - term fundamentals of zinc are not highly contradictory, and it is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive spreads and conduct reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [44][45]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Exar applied for incentives for capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is supported, but there is a callback risk after the resumption of production by large enterprises. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium and long term [47][48]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports in November increased significantly. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026. It is recommended to go long on dips if cobalt pricing is implemented, and short at high prices if the production quota expectations are not met [49][50][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin had a contango. The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and demand is weak. Inventory accumulation is a short - term pressure on prices. It is necessary to be vigilant against price drops [53][54][57]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices rebounded due to increased market risk appetite and geopolitical risks. Short - term oil prices will be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts [58][59]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price rose on December 23. The short - term market risk is high [60][61]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ZIM rejected the management's acquisition offer. The freight rate increase was not realized, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but inventory accumulation continues. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was in a volatile state. The main contract 2605 opened at 8685 yuan/ton and closed at 8595 yuan/ton, a change of (-45) yuan/ton or (-0.52)% compared to the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 was 221,606 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 21 was 9019 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - On December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 138,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot inventory) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 (0) yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the planned output in December was around 114,000 tons, with a slight decrease compared to November, resulting in limited change in the demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly compared to the previous week. In early December, monomer plants gradually reduced production, and the consumption of industrial silicon in December may decrease by about 5000 tons [2]. - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the reduced - production state this week. The downstream demand of the aluminum alloy industry showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a weak trend [2]. Strategy - The spot price is basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but inventory accumulation continues. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Pay attention to whether there are relevant capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy support, the futures price may rise. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 60,000 yuan/ton and closing at 58,845 yuan/ton, a change of -2.08% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,949 (139,187 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 213,280 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon declined slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.80 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.30 (with a 0.00% change compared to the previous period), and the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50GW, a decrease of -7.73% compared to the previous period. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25,000 tons, a change of -0.40% compared to the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, a change of -12.18% compared to the previous period [4]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.03) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.53 (0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.30 (0.05) yuan/piece [4][5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.30 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.31 (0.02) yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.31 (0.02) yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The consumption end performance is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, pay attention to the subsequent production and sales restrictions. The futures price has large fluctuations recently, and participants need to pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption end performance is average, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6].

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：厂库扩容便利仓单交割 | 4 | | 工业硅：以逢高做空思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：新增厂库额度，关注情绪面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,260 | 4,080 | 6,570 | 3,230 | 5,8 ...

硅年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 周贵升 从业资格证号： F3036194 投资咨询资格证号： Z0015986 硅年报 2025-12 基本面上看，在当前弱势行情下，工业硅整体开工率处于低位运行，西北 大厂因成本优势开工保持较高水平，同时关注环保天气以及行业自律对开工的 影响，西南地区开工呈现季节性波动，此外一体化龙头企业也保持较高开工， 整体供应压力仍存。需求端，增量较为有限，多晶硅保持高位水平，今年以来 多晶硅企业按行业自律生产，开工率维持 35%左右低位水平，下半年因行业反 内卷价格大幅反弹，叠加西南丰水期开工有所提升，近期多晶硅平台公司落地， 摘要： 整体来看，工业硅方面，目前工业硅仍处于缓慢去化阶段，供应端维持低 位小幅增加，需求端增量有限，因此上方空间有所压制，但下方受成本支撑， 预计工业硅价格维持低位震荡。多晶硅方面，收储平台持续推进，供应水平逐 步贴合需求，光伏装机维持高位震荡，预计盘面维持高位区间震荡，关注光伏 行业反内卷推进情况。 关注：硅企行业自律、光伏收储反内卷政策 未来产能规划将控制在合理区间，而新增光伏装机则受限于新 ...

下游兑现去产能，工业硅反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 工业硅周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅低位反弹，主因多晶硅去产能进入实质性阶 段，硅料行业供需结构持续改善，中国工业增加值同比增 速稳健。供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持88%的相对高位， 西南地区枯水期开工率较弱，内蒙和甘肃产量重心下移， 供应端继续收敛；从需求侧来看，多晶硅龙头厂家有大幅 调整现货价格计划，市场仍以执行历史订单为主；硅片价 格逼近现金成本线，二三线企业低价抛货现象大幅减少； 电池片由于近期银价大幅上涨，成本压力攀升一线企业释 放涨价信号；组件 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The reduction in industrial silicon production has not yet been implemented, and the spot price quotation of polysilicon has increased [1][12][14] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon still depend on the production reduction and shutdown rhythm of enterprises. If the production reduction plan is implemented, the industrial silicon market is expected to reach a tight balance in December. Otherwise, inventory may accumulate in Q1 2026. The key to the success of the price increase of polysilicon lies in whether it can be passed on to the downstream, which requires the entire industry chain to be more strictly self - disciplined to achieve "trading volume for price" [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8690 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9200 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon increased by 3055 yuan/ton to 60245 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton week - on - week [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Production Reduction Not Yet Implemented, Polysilicon Spot Price Quotation Increased Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Xinjiang added 2 furnaces, Yunnan decreased 2, Sichuan decreased 1, and Gansu decreased 3. The production reduction is not obvious. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.8 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.55 tons. The basis strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the possible production reduction in the polysilicon segment [2][12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 70.74%, the weekly output was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The inventory was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%. The price increase support is relatively stable, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, so the increase is expected to be limited [13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose sharply this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price quotation of polysilicon increased again. As of December 18, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The key to the success of the new price lies in whether the price increase can be passed on to the downstream [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers stopped falling and rebounded this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The inventory of silicon wafer factories decreased by 1.8GW week - on - week. The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise slightly [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells increased this week. Affected by the continuous rise in silver paste prices, many battery factories raised their prices. The inventory of overseas - sold battery cell factories increased by 0.37GW week - on - week. The probability of a price increase for battery cells is high, but the increase depends on the acceptance of the component end [16] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the price increase of battery cells, some leading enterprises have updated their quotations, raising the price by 2 - 4 cents/watt. The demand has dropped significantly, and the visibility of new orders is low. Whether the component price can rise depends on whether there can be a larger - scale production reduction [17] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The strategy is to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [4][18] - Polysilicon: The spot price is expected to be difficult to fall. The new price can only be successful if the price increase can be passed on to the downstream through "trading volume for price". Investors are advised to hold positions cautiously [4][18] 3.4 Hot News - Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the minimum opening order quantity of polysilicon futures contracts from 1 lot to 5 lots starting from December 22, 2025 [19] - The mechanism electricity prices for photovoltaic and wind power in Xinjiang in 2026 are 0.15 yuan/kWh and 0.21 yuan/kWh respectively, with a total electricity volume of 19.826 billion kWh [19] - The mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic in Yunnan in 2026 is 0.329 yuan/kWh [20] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides a large number of charts on the prices, production, and inventory of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, with data sources including SMM and Baichuan Yingfu [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].