Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, creating significant financial pressure, with monthly interest payments of $890 billion against a revenue of $389 billion [1] - The U.S. Treasury has approved a new debt issuance plan of $1.2 trillion for the last quarter, despite claims of strong creditworthiness [2] - Global central banks are increasingly wary of U.S. debt, with countries like Brazil and South Africa exploring alternative currencies and financial arrangements [2][3] Group 2 - China has strategically reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by $480 billion over the past 18 months and increased its gold reserves to 16% of its foreign exchange reserves [3] - The CIPS system in China is processing 4.8 trillion yuan in cross-border transactions daily, indicating a shift away from the SWIFT system [3] - The potential for a coordinated sell-off of U.S. debt by global markets poses a significant risk to the U.S. financial system, with fears of a debt crisis escalating [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve - The core PCE price index in the US decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a potential interest rate cut later this year, despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts on inflation and employment [1] - The US GDP for Q1 was revised to a -0.2% growth rate, indicating economic stagnation, while consumer confidence has dropped significantly [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged following Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, with spot gold reaching $3,380 per ounce [2] - Gold mining stocks experienced significant gains, with Newmont rising nearly 5.5% and Barrick Gold over 6% [2] - Long-term demand for gold is driven by central bank purchases, making gold a safer investment compared to more volatile gold mining stocks [2] Group 3: Seagate Technology Developments - Seagate Technology's stock rose by 29.56% in May, driven by the delivery of 40TB hard drive samples and plans for larger capacities [3] - The company aims to produce a 100TB hard drive by 2030, addressing the growing demand for data storage in AI and data centers [3] - Seagate reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase and a 12.6-fold increase in profit, highlighting its strong market position [3] Group 4: Oil Market Outlook - OPEC+ decided to maintain an increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, consistent with previous months [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts continued OPEC+ production increases, potentially leading to lower oil prices, while Goldman Sachs expects a more cautious approach [5][6] - The overall supply-demand balance remains skewed towards oversupply, with US production growth impacting global oil prices [6] Group 5: US Stock Market Projections - After a 6.2% rebound in May, the US stock market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to rising inflation and slowing economic growth [7] - The S&P 500 index has only increased by about 0.9% this year, underperforming compared to European markets [7] - Concerns over inflation and fiscal issues may lead to higher bond yields, affecting the attractiveness of US equities [7]

Group 1 - German economist Martin Luecke stated that the U.S. government's debt and tariff policies are pushing the country towards a financial crisis, describing these policies as a "disastrous operation manual for a complete collapse" [1] - California Attorney General Rob Bonta indicated readiness to sue to protect local businesses if President Trump proceeds with tariffs against Apple, which is headquartered in Cupertino, California [1] - President Trump expressed agreement with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments that the U.S. does not need to bring textile manufacturing back domestically, focusing instead on manufacturing "big items" like chips, computers, and AI [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the current world order is fundamentally shaken, with multilateral cooperation being replaced by zero-sum thinking and power struggles, which could pose risks to Europe [2] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil emphasized the need for the EU to focus on a solution that benefits both Europe and the U.S. [2] - The Japanese government plans to allocate 900 billion yen to mitigate rising electricity and gas costs and support small and medium-sized enterprises, with total project scale expected to reach 2.8 trillion yen [2] Group 3 - U.S. crude oil futures remained flat at $61.53 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.05% to $64.81 per barrel [3] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.7% to $3342.2 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 0.11% to $33.645 per ounce [4] - Eurozone bond yields declined, with France's 10-year bond yield down by 2.4 basis points to 3.234%, Germany's by 0.7 basis points to 2.558%, Italy's by 3 basis points to 3.552%, and Spain's by 1.3 basis points to 3.174% [4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 99.012, with various currency exchange rates showing slight fluctuations against the dollar [4] Group 5 - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1843 against the U.S. dollar, appreciating by 52 basis points from the previous trading day [5]

FICC日报 | 2025-05-23 特朗普税收法案通过众议院，美国财政赤字担忧加剧 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进 口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同）， 对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月19日，中国 央行表示将抓好一揽子货币金融政策措施的落实和传导。5月20日，中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR)分别从3.1%与3.6%下调至3%和3.5%。中国央行5月23日将开展5000亿元MLF操作。5月9日—12日何立峰副总 理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商 机制。重点关注原油，集运指数，黄金等对该事件敏感的商品。5月15日商务部例行发布会回应中方对美关税反制 措施调整，称因美方撤销对华加征关税而相应调整，并表明对中美经贸磋商机制持开放态度，双方将依日内瓦会 谈共识保持沟通。此外中方再次敦促美方 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025年5月14日12时01分起，对 美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%，暂停24% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Group 1 - The Geneva talks between China and the US have made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a trade negotiation mechanism, and a joint statement is expected to be released on Monday [2][8] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices nearly flat as investors awaited clarity on US-China tariff negotiations [3] - The US Treasury yields remained stable, and trading volume decreased compared to usual levels, reflecting market uncertainty [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration has identified around 20 key trading partners for initial negotiations, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, with Japan's Prime Minister aiming for a trade agreement before the July Senate elections [5] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to rising inflation and unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [5] - The Chinese CPI data for April indicates that tariffs have caused deflation for the third consecutive month, prompting the People's Bank of China to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery in its monetary policy [8]

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 凌晨美联储年内第三次维持利率不变，美联储主席鲍威尔继续硬钢特朗普，对黄金而言构成利空！不过，美联储利率决议期间，黄金波动有限，主要因为特 朗普重返白宫后开启的全球"关税大战"成了市场的焦点，同时全球地缘局势云波诡谲，使得美联储影响力大打折扣！ 经过昨天欧美盘折腾后，今天先看区间，重点3360区域支撑，上方重点3400区域压制。向下破位，行情进一步走空，关注回撤3325--3300大关；向上突破， 则看涨3420--3440，甚至冲击历史新高！操作上，3360-3400区间内高抛低吸不追单，打破区间则顺势跟进一波！ 白银，窄幅波动，方向跟着黄金；昨天冲高33.3后大跌，接下来继续关注高空，短线32.2-32区域支撑先看反弹！ 昨天央妈降息降准，以应对当前市场不确定性，似乎影响并不大。当前，市场不缺钱，缺的是信心！消费贷款助力经济也就罢了，连养老都需要贷款了，也 是没法说。 基本面上，地缘局势依然是焦点，印巴冲突牵动全球的神经；俄乌和谈难以达成，冲突随时进一步加剧；美伊谈判各有各的底线，也是死 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in risk appetite following China's interest rate cuts and confirmation of trade talks with the U.S., leading to a rise in Asian stock markets and commodity prices [1][5][6] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy interest rate, bringing it down from 1.5% to 1.4% [1] - The upcoming visit of China's Vice Premier He Lifeng to Switzerland for trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to further influence market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Asian markets showed positive performance, with MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.4%, and notable increases in indices such as the South Korean Composite Index and the MSCI Vietnam Index [5][6] - Commodity prices, including iron ore and steel futures, experienced upward trends, with significant gains in agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and wheat, all rising over 1% [6][7] - International oil prices continued to rebound, with WTI crude oil rising over 0.63% and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.50% [7][8]

五一假期，全球金融市场风险事件扎堆，日本央行一如预期维持利率不变，调降经济增长预估；美国4月 非农报告表现强劲，推后美联储降息预期；OPEC 同意6月石油产量增加41.1万桶/日，OPEC 料将进一步 加快增产步伐。 美国第一季度经济三年来首次萎缩，关税生效前企业大力囤货导致进口创纪录；美国4月制造业进一步萎 缩，关税挤压供应链令投入价格居高不下；美国初请失业金人数升至两个月最高，高于市场预期。 美国股市节节攀升，三大指数纷纷创出逾一个月高位，聚焦美联储政策前景；日本股市连续第七个交易 日上涨，创下2023年8月以来最长连涨纪录；香港恒生指数创近一个月新高，贸易紧张有缓和迹象；美元 指数从三周高位回落，就业数据良好且贸易局势缓和；离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.20关口，为去年11月 以来首次。 大宗商品方面，CBOT大豆探底回升，一度跌至两周低点，受贸易战情绪影响；伦铜5月持续反弹，寄希 望于贸易紧张局势缓和；金价从两周低位回升，强劲的就业报告令金价承压；油价继续探底，因OPEC 将 加速增产引发供应增加担忧。 **美国股市连续第二周上涨** 美国股市在五一假期涨势明显，周线连续第二周上涨，三大股指创出逾一个月 ...