Market Overview - A-shares experienced a downward trend with all three major indices declining, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% to 3284.17, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.39% to 9878.43, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.53% to 1936.87 [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.2% to 21936.79, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a slight increase of 0.16% to 4990.78 [2][3] Sector Performance - The consumer sector in A-shares faced a significant pullback, with food and tourism stocks leading the decline. Notable declines included Youyou Foods and Guoguang Chain, which hit the daily limit down, and other stocks like Beiyinmei and Wanmei Biological dropping over 5% [5][7] - The real estate sector in A-shares also saw substantial losses, with Tianbao Infrastructure and Yuhua Development hitting the daily limit down, and several other stocks declining over 5% [7][8] Bond Market - The bond market showed strength, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.1%, the 10-year contract increasing by 0.09%, while the 5-year contract fell by 0.02% [3][4]

点击小程序查看报告原文 提振内需的必要性与政策实施的有效性正在提升 外部冲击之下，"扩内需"必要性进一步提升。 美国近期实施的关税政策力度远超预期，扰动全球贸易秩序，加剧全球经济放缓风险。中美贸易摩擦动态 演绎，截至4月16日，中国出口美国的个别商品累计各种名目的关税已达到245%[1]。在此背景下，我国政府迅速采取针对性措施，包括对等关税、出口管 制、反倾销调查、WTO诉讼等[2]，维护多边贸易。与此同时，在外部尤其贸易前景尚不明朗的背景下，更为积极地实施内需刺激政策必要性提升，以国 内增长确定性应对外部环境的不确定性。 当前时点"扩内需"的效果或优于以往。第一，从政策空间来看， 近期公布的物价数据显示，CPI同比2月起再次进入负增长区间，PPI同比持续低位运行， 通胀低位为货币宽松和财政刺激提供了更大操作空间。 第二，从政策目标来看， 扩大内需是去年底经济工作会议以及两会明确的首要任务[3]。特别地， 2024年地方政府债务置换计划落地后，地方偿债压力缓解，为新增投资及民生支出释放财政空间，地方政府配合中央逆周期调控的能力和意愿增强。 第 三，私人部门信心逐步企稳。 3月统计局公布的商品房销售面积、销售金 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of -0.0509 yuan for Q1 2025, showing a 2.49% improvement compared to -0.0522 yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was -0.29 billion yuan, a 3.33% improvement from -0.30 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.63 billion yuan, down 10.44% from 1.82 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The return on equity for Q1 2025 was -10.16%, a decline of 38.04% compared to -7.36% in Q1 2024 [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders hold a total of 19,442.09 million shares, accounting for 37.94% of the circulating shares, with an increase of 7,925.08 million shares compared to the previous period [2] - The largest shareholder, Xi'an Tourism Group, holds 17,768.04 million shares, representing 34.68% of the total share capital, with an increase of 7,485.84 million shares [3] - New entrants among the top shareholders include Ni Yusheng, Liu Haihang, Kong Run, and Han Shu, while several previous shareholders have exited the top ten list [3] Dividend Policy - The company has announced that it will not distribute dividends or transfer shares this time [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable operations with high dividends, and new project layouts are expected to open up growth opportunities [1] - The forecast for EPS from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 0.43, 0.46, and 0.52 yuan respectively, with a target price set at 11.61 yuan based on a 27 times P/E ratio for 2025 [2][8] Financial Information - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 799 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 152.4%. Projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 808 million yuan (+1.2%), 863 million yuan (+6.8%), 915 million yuan (+6.0%), and 972 million yuan (+6.2%) respectively [4] - Operating profit for 2023 is 319 million yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 2517.0%. The projections for the following years are 300 million yuan (-5.8%), 326 million yuan (+8.6%), 351 million yuan (+7.7%), and 390 million yuan (+11.2%) [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 227 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5971.9%. The projections for the next years are 211 million yuan (-7.3%), 236 million yuan (+12.0%), 255 million yuan (+8.0%), and 284 million yuan (+11.5%) [4] - The gross margin for 2023 is 58.7%, with projections of 57.4% for 2024, 58.9% for 2025, 59.7% for 2026, and 60.9% for 2027 [4] - The net margin for 2023 is 28.5%, with projections of 26.1% for 2024, 27.4% for 2025, 27.9% for 2026, and 29.2% for 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is 9.2%, with projections of 8.4% for 2024, 8.9% for 2025, 9.0% for 2026, and 9.7% for 2027 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a strong performance in Q4, with a revenue of 173 million yuan (+10.0%) and a net profit of 19 million yuan (+19.2%) during the off-peak season [7] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 91%, with a cash dividend proposal of 3.50 yuan per 10 shares [7] - The company’s three cableway operations received a total of 6.6684 million visitors in 2024, representing an increase of 8.9% year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop in the e-commerce sector, and for Meituan in the local life services sector, as well as for Didi Chuxing in the ride-sharing sector [16][17][18]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index rose by 2.53%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (up 1.59%) and the ChiNext Index (up 0.97%) [5][6]. - The retail sector index increased by 3.05%, also outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [5][6]. - The e-commerce competition landscape is better than expected, with leading companies' valuations at low levels [16]. - Ctrip's outbound tourism and overseas business continue to show high growth, with a focus on the recovery of outbound tourism and overseas market expansion [19]. - The local life services sector shows significant profit elasticity, with Meituan being a key recommendation [17]. - Didi Chuxing is expected to maintain stable growth and has significant profit growth potential due to its established market share and operational efficiencies [18]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - The competitive landscape is less concerning than previously thought, with expected profit growth for major players [16]. - Alibaba's e-commerce monetization rate has significantly improved, with a target price of 156-190 HKD per share [19]. - JD.com is expected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth, with a target price of 193-232 HKD per share [19]. - Vipshop's performance is driven by improved consumer sentiment and platform advantages, with a target price of 19.5 USD [19]. Local Life Services - Meituan's core business is expected to show resilience and profit release, with a target price of 176.8 HKD per share [17]. Ride-sharing Sector - Didi Chuxing is projected to have a significant profit growth potential, with a focus on both domestic and international markets [18]. Tourism Sector - Ctrip's revenue and profit have exceeded market expectations, with a projected revenue growth of 14%-15% for 2025 [19]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to launch over 120 promotional activities to boost restaurant consumption [24]. Retail Sector - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards quality retail, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket focusing on enhancing consumer trust and service quality [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Views - Domestic demand remains a crucial driver for economic growth, with a positive outlook on leading consumer companies and a focus on AI+ consumption investment opportunities [2] - The Chinese government is expected to have more room for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, which will further support domestic demand as a key growth driver [2] - As the economy gradually recovers and market expectations for stable growth policies increase, discretionary consumption is anticipated to see improvements in performance and valuation [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The social service index fell by 2.82% from February 24 to February 28, 2025, ranking 25th among 31 industry indices [5] - The retail index increased by 1.55% during the same period, ranking 13th, with a cumulative increase of 8.15% since the beginning of 2024 [5] - The beauty care index rose by 1.67%, ranking 12th, but has seen a cumulative decline of 11.66% since the start of 2024 [5] Sub-Industry Dynamics Restaurant and Tourism - Greenland Group aims to achieve over 10 billion yuan in tourism revenue within five years [13] - Tongcheng Travel integrates AI technology to enhance user experience in travel solutions [13] Retail - The duty-free sector shows strong growth, with a significant increase in visitor numbers during the Spring Festival [16] - Major retail players like Yonghui Supermarket are expanding their presence through strategic partnerships [17] Beauty and Personal Care - The rise of private label brands is notable, with significant sales achievements in the cosmetics sector [19] - New product launches and technological advancements are driving growth in the beauty industry [20] Company Updates - Key companies in the social service sector, such as Kerui International, reported a revenue increase of 20.60% for 2024 [23] - Beijing Renli announced a strategic transfer of its subsidiary, reflecting ongoing adjustments in corporate structure [25] - Focus on digital transformation is evident in companies like Lianhua Supermarket, which raised funds for business ecosystem upgrades [18]