1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the consumer side. The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.01%. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 5.78% week - on - week as of January 14, 2026, while it increased by 35% year - on - year. The jujube has entered the peak stocking period, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase goods has increased. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading prompts include spot price and consumer side - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.01% - As of January 14, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 35% - The jujube has entered the peak stocking period, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase goods has increased. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [10] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The price of Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.01% [12] - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 19,483 lots [13] - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,271 [18] - As of this week, the price difference between Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and 2609 contract was - 235 yuan/ton [21] - As of this week, the basis between Hebei ash jujube spot price and the main contract of jujube futures was 595 yuan/ton [24] - As of January 16, 2026, the purchase price of Aksu jujube was 5.15 yuan/kg, Alar jujube was 5.65 yuan/kg, and Kashgar jujube was 6.5 yuan/kg - As of January 16, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade ash jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of special - grade ash jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.47 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.47 yuan/kg [28][35] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of January 14, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 35%; the jujube output in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [39][43] - Demand side: In November 2025, China's jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kg, the export amount was 53,004,642 yuan, the export average price was 14,983.36 yuan/ton, the export volume increased by 60.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.18% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export was 29,291,188 kg, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.50%; the BOCE Xinjiang jujube good brand trading was inactive this week [47][52] 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Option market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujube this week is mentioned, but specific data is not given - Futures - stock correlation: The price - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [55]

郑棉转为震荡 回归基本面 ——国信期货棉花周报 2026年1月16日 研究所 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑棉本周小幅震荡，周度跌幅0.37%。ICE期棉偏强震荡，周涨幅0.58%。 本周棉花价格指数回落。3128指数较上周下跌17元/吨，2129指数较上周下跌20元/吨。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 50,000.00 70,000.00 100,000.00 90,000.00 120,000.00 30,000 80,000 130,000 180,000 230,000 280,000 330,000 380,000 430,000 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oils this week was soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil, with a slight recovery in the soybean - palm oil spread. The soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal oil - to - meal ratios of the main contracts slightly recovered, and the price spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to rise. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal slightly declined, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil slightly recovered, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil significantly declined, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil slightly recovered [62][97][102]. - In the short - term, the technical indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish; the short - and medium - term indicators of soybean oil are bullish, while the long - term indicator is entangled; the indicators of palm oil are all entangled; and the indicators of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meals, international weather may be a factor for speculation, and domestic soybean meal spot remains firm. For oils, international geopolitics affects the market, and domestic oils may rotate [123][124]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: CBOT soybeans fluctuated lower this week, first falling and then rising. Domestic soybean meal futures declined, while the spot market was relatively firm, showing a situation of strong spot and weak futures [6]. - **Export Data**: As of January 8, 2026, the weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans was 1,529,707 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 17,934,546 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.8%. The export to China in that week was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.9% of the total [10]. - **South American Market**: In Brazil, as of January 9, the soybean harvest progress was 0.53%. In Argentina, as of January 8, the cotton, corn, and soybean planting rates were 86%, 90%, and 92% respectively [20][21][29]. - **Oilseed Market**: The USDA raised the production and inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season and lowered exports. The NOPA's December soybean crushing volume was the second - highest on record [32][31]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic soybean port inventory was about 833.96 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 99.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.7 tons [41][47]. 3.2 Oils Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: US soybean oil rose significantly this week, reaching a 7 - week high. Malaysian palm oil fluctuated at a low level and closed slightly higher. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil rising, palm oil rising and then falling, and rapeseed oil falling first and then rising [62]. - **International Data**: In December 2025, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased to 305 tons. In January 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month. In December 2025, India's palm oil imports reached an 8 - month low [66][67][68]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 214.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.48 tons [83]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Seasonal Analysis**: Seasonal index data for US soybeans, soybean meal, domestic soybean meal, and various oils and meals are provided, but no specific conclusions are drawn [114][115][117]. - **Next - Week Outlook**: Technically, the indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish; those of soybean oil are bullish in the short and medium - term; those of palm oil are entangled; and those of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meals, weather and South American harvests may affect the market, and domestic soybean meal spot remains firm. For oils, geopolitics and policies may impact the market, and domestic oils may rotate [123][124].

□ 孟亚生 将无形的气候资源转化为有形的发展动能，更是生动诠释了"好气候也是生产力"的深刻内涵。地处亚热 带与暖温带过渡带的江苏，坐拥"气候温和、四季分明、雨热同季、光热充沛"的先天优势。为了将"好 气候"转化为生产力，我省将气候区划与区域发展精准对接。苏南依托亚热带湿润季风气候，打造四季 常绿的康养旅居目的地；苏北凭借暖温带半湿润气候优势，发展雨热同季的优质农产品；沿海地区则深 挖风能资源，推进风电项目规模化开发。这种因地制宜的开发模式，让江苏的气候资源从模糊的"生态 标签"，转变为可规划、可落地的"产业蓝图"。 要让"好气候"持续转化为生产力，还需强化政策协同与科技支撑，筑牢保障体系。我省通过地方立法明 确气候资源保护和开发利用的原则与路径，要求重大项目开展气候可行性论证，从源头规避无序开发风 险。科技赋能也让气候服务更精准高效，为产业发展规避气候风险，为康养、旅游调度提供精准指 引。"政策+科技"的双轮驱动，既守住了生态保护底线，又提升了气候资源利用效率，为生产力持续释 放提供了稳定支撑。 "好气候"转化为生产力，本质是生态价值向经济价值、社会价值的多元转化。"好气候"转化为生产力， 既要立足本地气候资 ...

Group 1 - The core observation indicates that the prices of major commodities in Jining, Shandong Province, are showing mixed trends, with grain and oil prices stable with slight increases, meat and poultry prices overall rising, and vegetable prices continuing to decline [1][3][5] Group 2 - Grain and oil prices are stable with slight increases; the average price of wheat and corn is 1.22 yuan/kg and 1.08 yuan/kg, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 0.83% and 0.93%; flour and japonica rice prices remain unchanged at 1.92 yuan/kg and 2.52 yuan/kg [1] - Meat and poultry prices are generally rising; the average price of lean pork and pork belly is 11.86 yuan/kg and 10.71 yuan/kg, with month-on-month increases of 1.28% and 1.32%; the average price of white-cut chicken and eggs is 8.17 yuan/kg and 3.71 yuan/kg, with increases of 1.11% and 9.44% [3] - Vegetable prices are continuing to decline; the average price of 17 monitored vegetables is 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.99%, with significant declines in cucumber and eggplant prices, which fell by 8.89% and 7.50%, respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may have some divergence at the current position and operate in a range, but in the long - term, there are still things to look forward to on the policy side, and there may still be some room for the cotton price to rise [1] - For sugar, the domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with much speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is also significant hedging pressure above the 5300 integer mark. As the holiday approaches, it should be treated with a range - bound and weak outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.57% to 64.62 cents per pound, and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased 0.61% to 14,675 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 6,537 lots to 835,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,550 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical situation is volatile, and the U.S. is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating strongly above 99. The USDA January report slightly reduced the expected output of U.S. cotton in the 2025/26 season, supporting the U.S. cotton price. In the domestic market, the amplitude of Zhengzhou cotton has narrowed recently. The USDA January report slightly increased the expected output and consumption of Chinese cotton in the 2025/26 season, in line with market expectations. The year - on - year clothing exports this year have declined. The raw material inventory reserves of textile enterprises vary greatly, and attention should be paid to their replenishment actions before the festival [1] - **Sugar**: The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups range from 5320 to 5380 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5190 - 5230 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures price is under pressure due to the decline in energy prices and the significant increase in India's production year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India. The domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is significant hedging pressure above 5300 [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is - 15, down 5; the main basis is 1297, up 137. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,727, up 10, and the national spot price is 15,972, up 2 [2] - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 3, up 3; the main basis is 100, up 29. The spot price in Nanning is 5360, down 10, and in Liuzhou is 5380, up 10 [2] 3. Market Information - On January 15, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9329, an increase of 493 from the previous trading day, with 1209 valid forecasts [3] - On January 15, the cotton arrival prices in various domestic regions were: 15,727 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,968 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,060 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,168 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On January 15, the comprehensive yarn load was 49, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.5, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 32.7, down 0.1 from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5360 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5380 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14126, an increase of 4387 from the previous trading day, with 755 valid forecasts [4] 4. Chart Analysis - There are various charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][12][14][16] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry research, and has won many awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant awards [21] Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [24]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the integration of Lingnan characteristics into the global market, showcasing Guangzhou's rich cultural heritage and its evolution as a commercial hub, particularly through the "Guangdong Goods Going Global" initiative [2] Group 1: Open Innovation - Guangzhou's ability to lead in intelligent manufacturing is attributed to its spirit of "open innovation and continuous change," which has historical roots in craftsmanship and modern technological advancements [5] - The city has positioned itself as a hub for global technology resources, particularly in the smart connected electric vehicle sector, which is seen as a new engine for Guangdong goods to enter international markets [5][7] Group 2: Cultural Integration - The article highlights the importance of cultural integration in the textile and apparel industry, with products from various regions in Guangdong gaining global recognition, thus establishing the province's "global voice" in these sectors [8][9] - The upcoming "Please Come to Guangdong for the New Year" cultural tourism initiative aims to promote local customs and attract international visitors, enhancing the global appeal of Guangdong's lifestyle [9] Group 3: Consumer Experience - The launch of the Haixinsha Technology Island aims to bridge the gap between technological achievements and consumer experiences, showcasing "Guangdong Goods Manufacturing" as a market favorite [7] - Innovative marketing strategies, such as the "Sui Nong Ji" agricultural consumption map and themed community group buying, are being employed to enhance the visibility and sales of local agricultural products [10][11]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable compared to the previous week, with a slight increase in production material prices by 1.0% [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw minor increases, with citrus, watermelon, and bananas rising by 1.7%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for meat products experienced slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.67 yuan per kilogram, increasing by 0.9%, while beef and lamb decreased by 0.2% [1] - Average wholesale price for 30 types of vegetables was 5.68 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.9%, with specific vegetables like zucchini, cabbage, and tomatoes dropping by 8.2%, 5.0%, and 4.4% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices for non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with aluminum, copper, and zinc increasing by 5.2%, 3.3%, and 2.8% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices experienced minor increases, with urea and compound fertilizers rising by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices showed slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and channel steel priced at 3521 yuan, 3712 yuan, and 3560 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 777 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, while anthracite and coking coal decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Prices for basic chemical raw materials experienced minor fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene increasing by 1.1%, while sulfuric acid and soda ash decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices for finished oil products saw slight declines, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [6][8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [9][10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and specific operations should refer to the corresponding price ranges [12][13][15]. - For black and building materials, steel prices are affected by inventory and demand, and the prices of related products such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in a range [35][37][44]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be considered for short - selling if it breaks below a certain level, and crude oil is recommended for short - term waiting and seeing [58][63][64]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, the short - term pig price may support the near - month contract, while the egg price may have different strategies for near - month and far - month contracts [88][90][92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. In December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The 2nd Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in March, and the central bank lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - **期指基差比例**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **策略观点**: The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading is to prevent short - term market overheating. In the long run, the policy supports the capital market. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Thursday, the closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts are provided. The central bank announced the social financing scale and money supply data for 2025 and the adjustment of structural monetary policy tool interest rates [5][6]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted 1793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net investment of 1694 billion yuan [7]. - **策略观点**: The December financial data shows a stable total social financing scale. The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices and changes of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, and the US dollar index are provided. Trump announced not to impose tariffs on key metals, and the inflation data has an impact on the market [9]. - **策略观点**: The current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The geopolitical situation and commodity prices affect the copper price. The London copper price fell, and the Shanghai copper price rebounded after a decline. The inventory and basis information are also provided [12]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper supply is in a tight situation, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The decline in crude oil and precious metals prices led to a fall in the aluminum price. The inventory and basis information are provided [14]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is neutral to positive. The domestic inventory has a cumulative pressure, but the overseas low - inventory and strong spot support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain zinc brands [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, but the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain lead brands [19]. - **策略观点**: The lead industry situation is complex, and the lead price may follow the sector for a supplementary increase due to strong macro - sentiment [20]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price was strong. The spot price, cost, and other information are provided [22]. - **策略观点**: The nickel has a large excess pressure, but the macro - factors support the price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price continued to rise. The supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **策略观点**: Although the tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate with the market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The lithium carbonate price index and contract price changes are provided. The inventory decreased, and the export tax - rebate policy adjusted [25]. - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [26]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina index fell. The basis, overseas price, and inventory information are provided [28]. - **策略观点**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling on rallies [29]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless - steel price rose. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory information are provided [30]. - **策略观点**: The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell. The inventory and trading volume information are provided [32]. - **策略观点**: The cost supports the price, but the demand is average. The price is expected to move sideways in the short term [33]. Black and Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. The inventory and demand information are provided [35]. - **策略观点**: The steel production has increased slightly, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is still high. Pay attention to the de - stocking progress and policy changes [36]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [37][38]. - **策略观点**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume is declining. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [39]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The coking coal price fell, and the coke price rose. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [40][41]. - **策略观点**: The coking coal price was driven by the market atmosphere and policy expectations. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks [42][44]. Glass and Soda Ash - **玻璃行情资讯**: The glass price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [46]. - **玻璃策略观点**: The glass daily melting volume has decreased, and the cost supports the price. However, the terminal demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **纯碱行情资讯**: The soda - ash price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [47]. - **纯碱策略观点**: The soda - ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [47]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [48]. - **策略观点**: The commodity market sentiment may continue, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks. The future market trends are affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **工业硅行情资讯**: The industrial silicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [51]. - **工业硅策略观点**: The industrial silicon supply and demand are difficult to change significantly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [52][54]. - **多晶硅行情资讯**: The polysilicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [55]. - **多晶硅策略观点**: The polysilicon price was affected by market sentiment and policy. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [56]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate, inventory, and spot price information are provided [58][59][61]. - **策略观点**: The rubber seasonality is weak. Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider short - selling if the RU2605 contract breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [62]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The crude oil price fell, and the prices of related refined products changed. The US EIA weekly data shows the inventory changes [63]. - **策略观点**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a range - trading strategy [64]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [65]. - **策略观点**: The methanol valuation is low, and the future pattern is expected to improve. It is feasible to buy on dips [66]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [67][68]. - **策略观点**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [69]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices, basis, and supply - demand information of pure benzene and styrene are provided [70]. - **策略观点**: The styrene non - integrated profit has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter [71]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price fell. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory information are provided [72]. - **策略观点**: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [73]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [76]. - **策略观点**: The ethylene glycol supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the valuation may be compressed in the medium term. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term [77]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [78]. - **策略观点**: The PTA supply is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline. It is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [79]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [80]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price in the medium term [81][82]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [83]. - **策略观点**: The PE price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price rose. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [85]. - **策略观点**: The PP supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026. The price may bottom out when the oversupply pattern changes [86]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The live pig prices in different regions changed. The northern farms are waiting for price increases, and the southern market may reduce prices to increase sales [88]. - **策略观点**: The low price and festival effect stimulate consumption. The short - term spot price may support the near - month contract. In the medium term, pay attention to the pressure on the near - contract and wait for rallies to short. In the long term, wait for price drops to go long [90]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg prices in different regions were stable or rising. The supply and demand are relatively normal, and some people are still bullish [91]. - **策略观点**: The late Spring Festival drives the near - month contract to be strong. However, the supply is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract. For the far - month contract, be cautious of over - valued pressure [92]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The protein meal futures prices were weakly volatile. The USDA data shows the global soybean production and consumption situation. The domestic soybean inventory and oil - mill operating rate are provided [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall situation is better than in 2024/25. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [95]. Oils - **行情资讯**: The oil futures prices fell. The USDA and other data show the production, consumption, and inventory situation of different oils [96][97][98]. - **策略观点**: The current fundamental situation of palm oil is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [99]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar futures price was volatile. The UNICA and other data show the sugar production and export situation in Brazil [100][101]. - **策略观点**: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support level. The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The short - term downward space of the domestic sugar price is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [102]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton futures price fell slightly. The USDA data shows the global cotton production and consumption situation. The domestic cotton inventory and spinning - mill operating rate are provided [103][104][105]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is neutral. The Zhengzhou cotton price is mainly affected by the domestic market. Wait for price corrections to go long [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities have diverse market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies. For example, in the gold market, prices are expected to rise, while in the basic metal market, opportunities for stable buying are awaited. In the black industry and energy - chemical sectors, the market is complex and requires different strategies such as holding short positions, waiting and seeing, or taking short - term and medium - term actions according to specific situations. In the agricultural product market, prices generally show a trend of shock, and corresponding trading strategies are formulated based on supply - demand relationships [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The price of London gold remained at $4,600 per ounce, and the price of London silver remained at $93 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: In November, the total scale of US Treasury bonds held by countries and regions outside the US increased by $112.8 billion to $9.36 trillion. China's mainland holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $6.1 billion to $682.6 billion. Many Fed officials supported Powell, and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. Domestic gold ETFs continued to have a small inflow of 0.8 tons [1] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on gold, and wait and see on silver [1] Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper price fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a $2.5 - billion key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the downstream point - price increased after the price decline [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a clearer opportunity to buy on stabilization [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.89% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The LME price was $3,162 per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The electrolytic aluminum price had a small correction. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term, and focus on the movement of the main funds [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.39% to 2,789 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of alumina is gradually recovering, the inventory is continuously accumulating, and it is expected to continue the weak shock in the short term [3] Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 25,090 yuan/ton and 17,550 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan and 165 yuan respectively from the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 40 yuan/ton and - 100 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 14.32 dollars/ton and - 43.33 dollars/ton respectively [3] - **Fundamentals**: The zinc market was obviously driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support was insufficient. The lead market showed a weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards zinc, and operate in the range or be bearish on lead [3] Other Metals (Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Polysilicon, etc.) - **Market Performance and Fundamentals**: Each metal has its own characteristics. For example, the silicon market has supply reduction and demand - side anti - involution; the lithium carbonate market has price fluctuations affected by supply and demand; the polysilicon market has production reduction and inventory changes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The silicon market can consider short - selling on rallies; the lithium carbonate market is expected to have price support; the polysilicon market is expected to have a weak shock in the low position [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin price rose first and then fell yesterday [4] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports needed time [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for an opportunity to buy on stabilization [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,161 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The building material apparent demand increased by 150,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, and the output decreased by 10,000 tons to 1.9 million tons. The steel supply and demand were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract, with a reference range of 3,130 - 3,180 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 815 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.8 million tons to 1.66 billion tons. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure, and the valuation was slightly high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the steel mill profit deteriorated. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The supply - side inventory was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was low. The futures valuation was high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract, with a reference range of 1,155 - 1,200 [5] Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was loose in the near term, and there was a large - supply expectation in South America in the long term. The US soybean crushing was strong, but the export was weak [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybean was supported by the bullish expectation of US biodiesel, but it was still in the process of finding a bottom in the medium term. The domestic far - month contract was suppressed by the large - supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contract depended on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7] Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price was strong, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress was slower than the same period last year, and farmers were reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm would decline. The supply - demand contradiction was not large [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was in a weak seasonal decline, and the export improved month - on - month. The overall pattern was loose in the near term and in a weak seasonal decline in the long term [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The oils and fats were strong, trading on the bullish expectation of US biodiesel. Pay attention to the production and biodiesel policy in the medium term [7] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the international crude oil price dropped significantly [7] - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export sales increased significantly. India's cotton production was expected to increase. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to fluctuate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend was still valid [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a price range reference of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg futures price continued to rise, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the capacity reduction slowed down. The Spring Festival stocking boosted demand, and the inventory decreased [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The January slaughter volume was expected to be low first and then high, and the demand was stable in the short term. The supply pressure was not large in the short term, and the high - end - of - year demand supported the price [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Energy Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6,700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure slowed down, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film market weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields was stable [9] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on dips [9] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4,870, down 0.3% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PVC was at the bottom and waiting for macro - guidance. The supply was at a high level, and the demand weakened seasonally. The social inventory was at a high level [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the increasing supply and weakening demand [9] PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price was $882 per ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,047 yuan/ton. The spot basis was - 65 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PX supply was at a high level, and the PTA supply was also high. The polyester factory load decreased slightly, and the downstream entered the off - season [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The PX has strong expectations to support the price, and there may be a correction pressure in the short term. The PTA has a seasonal inventory increase in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 - contract processing margin [9] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Iran, the methanol futures price rose first and then continued to adjust in shock. As of January 15, the methanol 05 contract closed at 2,273 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The export tax - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products had little impact on methanol. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the port inventory was expected to remain at a high level. The Iranian methanol loading volume in January was expected to be low [9] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to rise in shock in the near future [9] Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract closed at 1,087, down 0.5% [10] - **Fundamentals**: The glass production reduction increased significantly. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the price was at the bottom [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the decreasing supply and weakening demand [10] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6,450 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [10] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The oil price dropped significantly yesterday. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the risk premium was difficult to fully withdraw, and it may remain in shock in the short term [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure was large, and the demand was in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory was higher than the five - year average [10] - **Trading Strategy**: It is not recommended to chase the high price. Wait for an opportunity to go short on rallies, or buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [10] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 7,160 yuan/ton, and the overseas market price was stable. The import window was closed [10] - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory was at a normal - to - high level, and the short - term supply - demand of styrene weakened. The downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on styrene or pure - benzene spreads on dips in the second quarter [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract closed at 1,194, down 2% [11] - **Fundamentals**: The soda - ash price was at the bottom, the expectation improved, and the inventory was at a high level. The supply was large, and the downstream demand was weak [11] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [11]