Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation due to the dual weakness in supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the certainty of supply contraction and rigid demand will offset each other, limiting the downward space for coal prices [4][12] - The market for thermal coal is experiencing a supply contraction, with prices showing a slight decline, while the demand remains supported by heating needs due to cold weather [11][12] - The coking coal market is seeing marginal adjustments in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating, and the overall supply remains tight [23][24] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market is experiencing overall fluctuations, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as funds shift from high-valuation technology and precious metals to low-valuation, high-prosperity sectors like consumption and aviation services [5][36] - The average daily trading volume in the market is 2.41 trillion yuan, indicating high market activity despite increased volatility [5] Thermal Coal - The supply-demand structure for thermal coal is improving, with supply constraints from major production areas due to safety regulations and the upcoming Spring Festival [11][12] - Prices for thermal coal are showing a mixed trend, with slight increases at ports and declines in some production areas [12][13] - The average price for Shanxi Datong thermal coal (Q5500) is 565 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan from the previous week [13] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing a mixed price trend, with some prices declining while others remain stable [24][25] - The average price for Shanxi Gujiao No. 2 coking coal is reported at 1250 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan from the previous week [25] - The overall supply remains tight, with independent coking plants showing a slight increase in operating rates [23][24] Shipping Situation - The shipping situation shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price, with various routes experiencing slight declines in shipping costs [33] Industry News - Significant collaborations are being established in the coal industry, such as the resource exchange agreement between Shaanxi Coal and Yanchang Petroleum [34] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation towards a dual focus on raw materials and fuel, with policies aimed at controlling coal consumption in key regions [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the short - term, medium - term, and intraday of thermal coal spot, the view is "oscillation". The core logic is that during the peak winter period, high daily coal consumption in national power plants drives inventory reduction in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. However, stable coal production and a bearish long - term market outlook suppress coal prices at a low level. [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the peak demand season supports a slight increase in port coal prices. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - The reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". As of February 5, 2026, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 692 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. High daily coal consumption in power plants drives inventory reduction, but stable production and a bearish long - term outlook keep coal prices low. [4]

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：情绪偏低迷 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 10 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格震荡小幅收涨，夜盘价格再度走弱。近日 钢矿整体走势偏弱，叠加季节性淡季，抑制煤焦反弹高度。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，上周国内煤矿陆续开始停产放假，据 Mysteel 调研， 云南、山西晋中等地煤矿放假较早，产量下滑较为明显，本周农历腊月二 十三左右，将进入民营煤矿放假高峰期，停产煤矿激增，产量将大幅下滑。 上周原煤、精煤日产 192.5 万吨、75.5 万吨，分别环比下降 5.3 万吨、 1.6 万吨。煤减量预期对煤价存在一定支撑，不过减产基本符合往年规律， 下游已提前备货，不具备持续上涨驱动。进口端，上周蒙煤甘其毛都口岸 日通关量略有下降。需求端，钢厂生产相对平稳，日均铁水产量维持 228 万吨左右。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：当前煤焦供需矛盾一般，黑色金属市场整体情绪偏弱，价格偏 弱是运行，节前最后一周，注意持仓风险控制。 后期关注/风险因素：关注焦 ...

焦炭：多头止盈，震荡偏弱 焦煤：多头止盈，震荡偏弱 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 10 日 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1147 | 8. 5 | 0. 7% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1703.5 | 5 | 0. 3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 798141 | 469142 | -6791 | | | | J2605 | 16755 | 34909 | -121 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1570 1483 | 1570 1483 | 0 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1266 | 1266 | 0 | | | ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 703.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 -52.0 25省终端可用天数 20.8 0.4 0.9 -0.1 3.2 秦皇岛5000 619.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 -46.0 25省终端供煤 601.2 -2.8 -7.3 -38.8 -21.6 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -50.0 北方港库存 2290.0 -13.0 -24.0 -256.0 -222.3 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 北方锚地船舶 87.0 9.0 -4.0 -5.0 45.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -50.0 北方港调入量 130.9 -13.4 -9.9 -9.7 2.4 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -17.0 北方港吞吐量 98.8 -46.4 -30.4 -37.1 6.6 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 CBCFI海运指数 511.8 -1.2 -84.4 -114.0 39.2 25省终 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 焦煤维持区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 焦炭期货低位整理 | 期货研究报告 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量为 75.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of the coking coal market is expected to tighten significantly as private coal mines in production areas gradually enter the state of shutdown and holiday. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to remain stable in the short term [2][6] - For coking coal, factors such as rising hot metal production and limited supply increase are positive, while factors like slowdown in procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negative [4] - For coke, rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate are positive factors, while factors such as squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - draft of restocking demand are negative [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to tighten, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 570,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises maintain normal production, but the overall market demand is average, and inventory pressure is emerging. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 180,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [6][7] Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [10] - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various port metallurgical cokes from different origins and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising or remaining unchanged [11] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 201,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 1.095 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week [25] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 824,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 692,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to last week [29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Demand expectations are weakening, and prices are oscillating downward [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The apparent demand is weakening month-on-month, with wide fluctuations [2][8] - Silico-manganese and ferrosilicon: The sentiment in the sector is weak, with wide fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Long positions are taking profits, and the market is oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Demand expectations are poor, and prices are falling [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 1,361 lots to 513,384 lots. Among the spot prices, the price of imported ore increased slightly, while the price of domestic ore decreased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the RB2605 rebar futures contract, the closing price was 3,064 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan or 0.84%. For the HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures contract, the closing price was 3,239 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan or 0.55%. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [8][9] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on February 5th, the production of rebar decreased by 8.15 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.05 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 44.04 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil increased by 3.62 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that for hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the production and inventory of key steel enterprises showed different trends. BHP Billiton's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Silico-manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the silicon iron 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,610 yuan/ton and 5,594 yuan/ton respectively, down 24 yuan and 30 yuan. The closing prices of the manganese silicon 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,778 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton respectively, down 38 yuan and 44 yuan. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon also showed certain changes, and the price differences between futures and spot, near and far months, and cross-varieties also had corresponding adjustments [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions were reported. NMT announced the March 2026 manganese ore shipment price to China, with an increase. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices and quantities of silicon iron and manganese silicon in February [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon iron and manganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,147 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 0.7%. The closing price of the J2605 coke futures contract was 1,703.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.3%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction on the same day had a high rejection rate, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest also had certain changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions remained stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [22] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on February 10, 2026, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from February 3 to February 9, 2026, shows values ranging from - 109 to - 104 yuan/ton. The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are provided, with basis values such as 178.39, 190.88, etc. and the ratio values like 0.1361, 0.1368, etc [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: Inter - month spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, as well as inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol. Basis data for these chemical commodities from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are also presented [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, along with inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil. Basis data for these black metals from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are also shown [19][20] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are presented, with values like - 340, - 120, etc [28] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on February 9, 2026, are provided [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are given. Inter - month spreads for multiple agricultural products and inter - commodity spreads for some agricultural products are also presented [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are provided, along with inter - month spreads for these stock indices [52][54]