Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] Investment Strategies Single - Side Strategies - **RB2601 and HC2601**: The rebound rhythm is undetermined. The latest prices are 3046 and 3250 respectively. Geopolitical easing and the improvement of steel terminal demand bring a steel price rebound, but it should be viewed with caution. The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it is through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the steel price increase process will be more tortuous; if it is through a significant improvement in terminal demand, the steel price increase will be smoother [6][7][8] - **J2601**: The latest price is 1757.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Recent coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel production enterprises has declined, coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, and there is a demand for a second - round price increase in coke spot, but the acceptance process of steel mills is slow [6][9] - **JM2601**: The latest price is 1248.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Cold weather in most of the north, stricter coal mine safety production inspections, and a decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance have led to higher coal prices. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year - on - year decline of more than 6% from January to September [6][9] Spread Arbitrage Strategies - **I2601**: The latest price is 771. It is expected to operate weakly. The five major steel products' production has recovered and the apparent demand has continued to rise, while the daily average pig iron output has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling below 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profits have been continuously narrowing, suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand [6] Core Views - The steel price rebound due to geopolitical easing and improved terminal demand should be treated with caution, and the recovery path of steel mill profits is crucial [7][8] - Coke and coking coal futures are likely to continue to strengthen after a phased correction, supported by news and the spot market [9][10] - The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term due to compressed steel mill profits and weakening demand [11][12] Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded with varying increases. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 0.39 percentage points to 89.94% week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early October has significantly rebounded from the low in early January [13] - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average pig iron output has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 1.05 million tons or 0.44% to 2.399 million tons week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills has declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks (down 0.90 percentage points to 52.30% week - on - week) [17] - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills nationwide has rebounded. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills has declined [17] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities has declined for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since the end of August. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities has declined from the high since early March [21] - **Downstream Demand**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year (the decline widened by 1.0 percentage point compared with January - August). The national automobile production increased by 10.9% year - on - year (the increase widened by 0.4 percentage point compared with January - August) [21] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. The disk profit of the rebar 2601 contract has shown a continuous 3 - week increase in the loss amplitude [25] - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: The gross profit per ton of long - process steel mill rebar calculated by the main spot price has shown a continuous 4 - week increase in the loss amplitude. The gross profit per ton of short - process steel mill rebar (at flat electricity price) has stabilized after a 6 - week decline [29] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. The steel price rebound should be viewed with caution [31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis has narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 190 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis has slightly narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 30 and 90 yuan/ton in the future [33][35] Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major coke spot markets have been relatively stable for 3 consecutive weeks, and the prices of major coking coal markets have mainly continued to rise [36] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises has rebounded from the low in mid - September [36] - **Inventory and Coking Plant Profit**: The coke port inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined significantly for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has shown a continuous 2 - week loss, and the loss amplitude has increased in the recent week [39] - **Sample Mine Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory**: The daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines has declined. The operating rate of 523 sample mines has declined. The clean coal and raw coal inventories of 523 sample mines have declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks [39] - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, China's coking coal imports decreased by 6.1% year - on - year. The port coking coal inventory has increased. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 2 consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined [44] - **Raw Coal and Coke Production**: From January to September, China's raw coal production increased by 2.72% year - on - year, and the coke production increased by 3.50% year - on - year [44] Conclusions and Suggestions - Coke and coking coal may have a phased correction, but the overall strengthening trend is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of the increase in downstream steel prices driven by costs [48][49] Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of October 23, the 62% Platts iron ore index has slightly declined. As of October 24, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port has slightly rebounded. The spreads between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB fines have changed [50] - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: In the week of October 24, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has continued to increase, and the daily average unloading volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. The inventory of imported ore for steel mills has decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills has declined [55] - **Shipping and Arrival**: In the week of October 17, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased significantly. It is expected that the arrival volume will gradually increase in the near future [58] - **Domestic Ore Production and Operation**: From January to September 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.55% year - on - year. As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises has declined [62] - **Port Transaction Volume and Pig Iron Cost**: As of October 23, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore transaction volume at major ports has declined. In the week of October 24, the average tax - free pig iron cost of 64 sample steel mills has continued to rise [64] - **Daily Average Pig Iron Output, Blast Furnace Operating Rate, and Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has declined, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate has declined, the blast furnace operating rate has increased, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises has declined [67] - **Five - Major Steel Products Production and Inventory**: In the week of October 24, the actual weekly production of the five major steel products has rebounded, the apparent demand has increased, and the inventory has declined [70] - **Transportation Cost**: As of October 22, the main iron ore freight prices have mainly increased. As of October 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) have increased [76] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Due to compressed steel mill profits, iron ore demand is under pressure, and the iron ore price is likely to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [80] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the basis between the Qingdao Port iron ore spot price (after moisture adjustment) and the iron ore futures main contract has widened. It is expected to narrow in the future, fluctuating between 30 and 90 yuan/ton [81]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as "Oscillating"; glass and soda ash are rated as "Adjusting" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and 2-year, 5-year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Rebounding"; 10-year treasury bond is rated as "Upward"; gold and silver are rated as "High-level Oscillating" [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs are rated as "Treated Bullishly"; pulp is rated as "Bottom Consolidation"; offset paper is rated as "Weak Oscillation" [5] - **Oil and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Wide-range Oscillation" [5] - **Feedstuffs**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 are rated as "Rebounding" [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Oscillating Bullishly" [6] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Oscillating"; PX, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "On the Sidelines"; PTA is rated as "Oscillating" [7] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The iron ore market has an oversupply situation that is difficult to reverse, and the steel market's demand is weak. The coal coke market is affected by safety inspections and low steel mill profits. The glass market is weak with increasing inventory [2] - **Financial Industry**: The stock index market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and the treasury bond market has a slight upward trend. The gold market is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - **Light Industry**: The log market has improved demand and cost support, while the pulp market has weak demand and cost pressure [5] - **Oil and Fats**: The oil and fats market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation [5] - **Feedstuffs**: The feedstuffs market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: The live pig market has sufficient supply and weak demand, with short-term weak oscillation [6] - **Soft Commodities**: The rubber market is affected by weather and demand, showing wide-range oscillation. The polyester market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties [7] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to remain high, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price may hit a new low if negative feedback occurs. Four main lines should be closely monitored [2] - **Coal Coke**: The market is concerned about demand-side policies. Supply concerns have increased, and the low profit of steel mills may lead to production cuts [2] - **Rolled Steel**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the demand is weak. The price stop-falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak with increasing inventory. The possibility of cold repair is increasing, and the price may continue to oscillate weakly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment. It is recommended to hold long positions [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10-year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The demand has improved, and the cost support has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be bullish [5] - **Pulp**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset Paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation. Attention should be paid to weather and production and sales changes [5] Feedstuffs - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, and Soybean No. 1**: The market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations. Attention should be paid to weather and trade negotiations [5][6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [6] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [7] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the price trends [7]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—铁矿石 2025年10月24日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者 （您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发 的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的 引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, iron ore prices have declined, with the main contract dropping from 809.5 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 6.11%, indicating a return to the lower end of the fluctuation range [1] Supply Situation - The decline in iron ore prices is primarily due to several factors: weakened market sentiment due to tariff disturbances, reduced steel production leading to lower iron ore demand, and a weakening supply-demand balance reflected in increased port inventories [2] - Domestic port arrivals for iron ore were reported at 26.763 million tons, remaining high despite a week-on-week decrease of 4.678 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 17.711 million tons [2] - Global iron ore shipments reached 33.335 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2598 million tons, continuing to be at a high level for the year, and a year-on-year increase of 15.45% [2] Price Trends - The Platts iron ore price index averaged $105/ton in October, maintaining a relatively high level, while high prices have led to increased overseas shipments and high levels of floating inventory at sea [3] - Domestic mining production has also rebounded, further suppressing iron ore price trends [3] Demand Dynamics - Demand for iron ore has weakened, with poor performance in steel demand during the peak season, leading to reduced production by steel mills and a decline in iron ore consumption [4] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease, indicating that while demand has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level compared to the year [4] - The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, with only 55.41% of mills reporting profits, a decline of 12.99 percentage points over ten weeks, indicating ongoing challenges in the steel market [4][5] Overall Market Outlook - The iron ore market continues to face downward pressure due to high supply levels and unresolved industry conflicts in the steel market, leading to a weak demand outlook [6]

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年10月24日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张庆 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3210 | 10 | 149 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3120 | 3110 | 10 | دو | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3270 | 3250 | 20 | 199 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3128 | 3120 | 8 | 92 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3157 | 3159 | -2 | 63 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3071 | 3068 | 3 | 149 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3280 | 20 | 44 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3200 | 20 | -36 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The spot market had stable foreign - market quotes and a 3 - yuan/ton price increase at Qingdao Port. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross, and the MACD green column narrowed for 3 consecutive days. The market may be affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and BHP's announcements. The supply and demand fundamentals show that Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded, arrivals have dropped, and iron - water production is at a high level but has declined slightly for 3 weeks. Steel production profits are shrinking. Overall, the coking coal market news may drive steel and iron ore prices up, but the changes in steel production profits and Sino - US negotiation results need to be observed [7][9][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 23, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract opened at 777 yuan/ton, reached a high of 782 yuan/ton, a low of 770 yuan/ton, and closed at 777 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume was 236,711 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,978 lots to 561,141 lots. Other related steel futures contracts also had different price changes and trading volumes [5][7] - The spot market: Main iron ore foreign - market quotes on October 23 were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross on the daily line, and the green column of the MACD indicator on the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive days [9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: China will send a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 to 27. On October 23, BHP stated that if its coking coal business in Australia does not receive regulatory support, it will be forced to make "difficult decisions." Last month, BHP announced the suspension of its joint - venture coking coal mine in Queensland due to low product prices and high royalties [10][11][12] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded, and arrivals have dropped significantly, mainly due to the regular decline after the end of the quarterly - end rush. The average daily iron - water production is still above 240 million tons but has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the current profits of rebar blast furnaces, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into a loss state. It is expected that the subsequent production will continue to fluctuate at around 240 million tons. Steel demand has recovered this week, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. The sustainability of the subsequent demand recovery needs to be observed [11] - Overall view: The sudden news in the coking coal market has a significant driving effect on prices, and steel and iron ore may follow the upward trend in the short term. However, the changes in steel production profits need to be observed to see if they can recover. In addition, the results of the Sino - US negotiations also need to be closely monitored [11] 3.2 Industry News - On October 23, BHP stated that if its coking coal business in Australia does not receive regulatory support, it will be forced to make "difficult decisions." Last month, BHP announced the suspension of its joint - venture coking coal mine in Queensland with a subsidiary of Mitsubishi due to low product prices and high royalties [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, Brazilian and Australian iron ore shipments, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, main port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and shipment volume, sample steel mill tax - free hot - metal cost, blast furnace and electric - furnace operating rates and capacity utilization, national average daily iron - water production, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, weekly output of the five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][18][22]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [8] 2) Core Views - The supply - demand of steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, inventory pressure cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The port inventory of iron ore has increased, and the price is oscillating. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has contracted month - on - month, and the prices are rebounding. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the market's acceptance of the second - round price increase of coke is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, environmental protection, and Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][6]. - The shipping cost of thermal coal remains high, and the price is continuing to run strongly. Although the supply of market coal is slightly affected by safety inspections, the overall impact is small. The winter storage demand and non - power coal demand are strong, so the short - term price is stable and bullish [8]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures rose slightly. The production and consumption of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased month - on - month. The inventory reduction in the building materials peak season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction of plates is still prominent [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded significantly. Due to the situation in Mongolia, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the spot resources at ports were in short supply. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is restricted by profit compression [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, safety inspections are strict, supply is tightened, and prices are rising. At ports, the inventory accumulation is slow, and the shipping cost remains high, supporting the price. The price advantage of imported coal is obvious, and the downstream bidding is increasing [8]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear strategy in the text, but factors such as coal mine safety supervision, port inventory accumulation, and coal consumption need to be focused on [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged; in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly [3] - For iron ore, the demand weakens after the decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory puts pressure on prices. The market is in a state of weak reality and macro - expectation tug - of - war, with prices oscillating [6] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher than short - selling [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the commodity environment, and the trend of coking coal futures has a certain driving effect on its price [14] - For polysilicon, the current price fluctuation is regarded as a phased correction within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [16] - For glass, in the short - term, without external factors, the market is expected to remain weak [19] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 129,796 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.995833 million lots, down 10,093 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3110 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,657 tons, down 2375 tons. The main contract position was 1.509998 million lots, up 6767 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance; hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly relieved. The steel mill profitability rate declined significantly recently, and the hot metal production decreased significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.39% (+3.00), and the position changed by +2978 lots to 561,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 941,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.33 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.65% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both increased, the shipment of FMG was strong, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month [6] - Demand: The average daily hot metal production in the latest period was 239.9 tons, falling below 240 tons, mainly affected by the weak steel price, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and the environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production [6] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 23, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.14% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 92 yuan/ton [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.65% at 5574 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 76 yuan/ton [9] Strategy Views - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has put pressure on commodities. Most of the current situation has been priced in, and subsequent macro - level factors may be more important [10] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.59% (+220). The weighted contract position changed by +103 lots to 438,582 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 595 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 145 yuan/ton [13] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 50760 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.89% (+450). The weighted contract position changed by - 3824 lots to 243,675 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.98 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 2220 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", and the supply pressure still exists. The demand is mainly restricted by supply. The cost provides support for the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [14] - Polysilicon: The over - expected increase in silicon material production in October and the decrease in downstream silicon wafer production lead to continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The supply pressure will be relieved if the leading enterprises start maintenance at the end of the month. The current price fluctuation is a phased correction [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1108 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+14). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1140 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1150 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million boxes, up 2.3374 million boxes (+3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12,367 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 6711 lots [18] - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (+12). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1185 yuan, up 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (+3.64%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 934,500 tons, down 62,000 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 767,600 tons, up 78,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3131 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4848 lots [20] Strategy Views - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, the downstream procurement rhythm slows down further, and the supply rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short - term, and the market is expected to remain weak [19] - Soda ash: The industry shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21]