Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Concerns**: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - **Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - **Concerns**: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - **Concerns**: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - **Production and Demand**: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment is generally favorable for commodities. Overseas, Powell's dovish signal strengthens the market's interest - rate cut expectation, and the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations. Domestically, although the July domestic demand data is still weak, the market's pessimistic expectation of deflation has changed. However, the fundamentals of both raw materials and finished products are weakening, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. Overall, the steel market is expected to show a range - bound pattern [3]. - The supply of iron ore first increases and then stabilizes. The high demand for hot metal is maintained, but the downstream terminal demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the premium retracement supports the iron ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to be mainly range - bound [18]. - The details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted by over - production inspections and the 276 - working - day policy. The current main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished product demand in the peak season, the production changes of coking coal mines, and the implementation effect of macro - policies [30]. - Driven by profit, the production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. With the production restrictions on some steel mills before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, the ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price of ferroalloys is affected by the price of coking coal, and in the long - term, the valuation trend of coking coal is upward, but the short - term fluctuation is intense [48]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash remains unchanged [57]. - The near - end trading of glass returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, the production and sales situation improves. The policy expectation fluctuates, and the market sentiment also fluctuates. The supply of glass is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is at a high level, and the spot negative feedback continues. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Overseas macro - drivers are upward, and domestic deflation pessimism has changed. However, steel has a high - supply pressure with super - seasonal inventory accumulation. Raw material fundamentals are weakening, but the overall inventory of finished products is not high, and the total demand is acceptable. The market is expected to be range - bound [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3224, 3261, and 3138 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3377, 3388, and 3389 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on August 25, 2025, was 3354 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 53 yuan/ton [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: Supply first increases and then stabilizes, demand for hot metal is high but terminal demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Coking coal supply supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 787, 763, and 806.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 780 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, the 45 - port port clearance volume was 325.74 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" policy details are pending, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted. The main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [30]. - **Price and Basis Data**: On August 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost in Tangshan (Meng 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 88 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost in Rizhao Port (wet - quenched) was 1616 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 120.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Price and Profit**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, and the immediate coking profit was 397 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: Driven by profit, production is increasing, with high supply pressure. With production restrictions on steel mills and no obvious demand improvement, inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price is affected by coking coal [48]. - **Data of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: On August 25, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 yuan/ton [49][51]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory is at a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [57]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1393 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 167 yuan/ton [58]. - **Spot Price**: The heavy - soda market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the heavy - soda to light - soda price difference was 100 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The near - end trading returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, production and sales improve. Policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuate. Supply is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the spot negative feedback continues [83]. - **Price and Month - Spread Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1280 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 281 yuan/ton [84]. - **Production and Sales Data**: On August 24, 2025, the production and sales rate in Shahe was 110%, and in Hubei was 131% [85].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,898.00 | +66.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,680.00 | +38.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 569,284.00 | -20065.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 437,597.00 | -5312.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -82,183.00 | -2933.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -35,432.00 | +281.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 100.00 | +10.00↑ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 168.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 68,919.00 | -1175.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 20,234.00 | -240.00↓ | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view can be extracted from the provided data, which mainly consists of price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data of ferrous alloys. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon - iron, on August 25, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block was 5300, with a daily change of - 30 and a weekly change of - 150; the export price of Tianjin 72 silicon - iron was 1055 (USD), with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30 [2]. - For silicon - manganese, on the same day, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese at the production area was 5750, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 50; the trading price of Ningxia 6517 silicon - manganese was 5550, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 250 [2]. Supply - The data shows the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in China from 2021 to 2025, including monthly production, weekly production, and monthly capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - It also presents the production of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The demand - related data includes the estimated corrected monthly production of crude steel in China from 2021 to 2025, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the demand for silicon - manganese in China (in ten thousand tons) [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon - iron, it shows the weekly inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China from 2021 to 2025, including the inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - For silicon - manganese, it presents the daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon - iron, it shows the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 to 2025, the market price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, and the production cost, disk - based profit, and spot profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - For silicon - manganese, it shows the profit of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2021 to 2025, as well as the disk - based profit of silicon - manganese in Ningxia and Guangxi [7].

Report Title - Manganese Silicon Weekly Report (August 18 - August 22) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the cost aspect, the centralized pre - procurement of northern alloy plants is nearing completion, port activity has decreased, high - price offers from miners are reducing, and the "buy on rising" sentiment in the market has increased with strong wait - and - see mood and cautious procurement. Coke has been stable recently, and the current spot cost has little change [2]. - Regarding the supply side, the overall start - up of the north and south markets has little fluctuation. Factory inventory pressure is temporarily not large as manufacturers were active in hedging or selling before. Due to the weak operation of the silicon - manganese futures market and cost inversion, alloy plants are reluctant to lower prices, and many are not quoting prices, with a rising bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - From the demand side, affected by the decline of the silicon - manganese futures market, the new steel tender prices have dropped significantly after the HeSteel tender, with acceptance pricing concentrated around 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, and the acceptance of silicon - manganese alloy is average. The approaching military parade production restrictions in northern steel mills are expected to temporarily suppress the demand for silicon - manganese alloy [2]. - Overall, the sentiment in the silicon - manganese market has cooled slightly recently. The silicon - manganese price stabilized after a mid - week decline, and the future price trend still depends on the futures market fluctuations and changes in supply - demand fundamentals. It is predicted that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and annual production in different regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas are presented [6][7] - **Production**: - Annual, weekly, and monthly production data of Chinese silicon - manganese are shown, along with the weekly start - up rate of silicon - manganese enterprises [7][10] - Monthly production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are provided [11][12] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Procurement Volume**: Monthly procurement volumes of silicon - manganese 6517 by enterprises such as HeSteel Group, Shagang Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., as well as the weekly demand in China are presented [13] - **Steel Tender Procurement Price**: Monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by enterprises like Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, and others are shown [15] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Weekly data on the daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are provided [17] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Monthly import and export quantities of ferromanganese - silicon in China are presented [19] Manganese Silicon Inventory - Weekly inventory data of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are provided [21] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Monthly import volumes of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [23] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Weekly port inventory data of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory in China are provided [25] - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port are presented [27] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [28] - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are presented [29] Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in regions such as the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the inventory accumulation rate accelerating, and the steel mills' profit is gradually shrinking. If the demand fails to improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [3]. - For iron ore, although the supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season, the contradiction between high hot metal production and weak terminal demand needs attention. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - For ferrous alloys, the prices are affected by emotions in the short term. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The fundamental problems of over - supply in manganese silicon and silicon iron still exist [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and polysilicon will maintain a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and high - volatility operation [16][17]. - For glass and soda ash, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center of soda ash may gradually rise, but the upward space is limited [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3361 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand had a slight recovery but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 770.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50). The weighted position was 82.93 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.71 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4075 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous period. Port inventory continued to rise slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrous Alloys - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.10%, and the silicon iron main contract (SF511) closed up 0.07% [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There was no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of silicon iron, and the supply also showed a continuous recovery trend [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, up 1.27% (+ 110). The weighted contract position decreased by 5333 hands to 523742 hands [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand remained. Production continued to rise, and the demand support for prices was limited [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 51405 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 125). The weighted contract position decreased by 8014 hands to 327469 hands [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It maintained a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Production remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price was 1220 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, inventory pressure increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center might gradually rise in the long term [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overvaluation risk of ferroalloys has been significantly released, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4][5]. - The demand side of alloys may face short - term shocks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply side will be suppressed after the price decline [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Supply - the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise slightly this week, but the growth rate slowed down after the price dropped significantly. Demand - the pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the apparent demand for steel rebounded. There may be short - term demand shocks due to phased production restrictions in Tangshan steel mills. Cost - the electricity price was stable, and the price of port manganese ore declined slightly but remained firm [4]. - **Market sentiment**: "Anti - involution" leading varieties such as polysilicon, coking coal, and lithium carbonate showed differentiation, and lithium carbonate once hit the daily limit down, dragging down the sentiment of other commodities. After the futures price fell as expected and approached the cost line of some production areas, the overvaluation risk of both absolute valuation and futures premium was significantly released [4]. Strategies - **Single - side trading**: The overvaluation risk has been significantly released, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. - **Arbitrage**: The cash - and - carry arbitrage can be gradually closed for profit. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [5]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.03 tons (accounting for about 70% of the total demand), unchanged from the previous week; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.53 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%; the national ferrosilicon output was 11.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 46.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%; the national silicomanganese output was 21.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 15.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 tons [12]. Cost and Profit - **Silicomanganese**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5831 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 81 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5939 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 339 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6424 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 624 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6168 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 418 yuan/ton [30]. - **Ferrosilicon**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5535 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 235 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5388 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 58 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, the production cost was 5600 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 300 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 157 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 309 yuan/ton [40]. Other Data - **Metal Magnesium Demand**: Data on the price of magnesium metal in Fugu and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi were provided [67]. - **Silicon - Iron Inventory**: Data on the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills were presented [71]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: Data on the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants were provided [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. There is support due to certain repair in steel demand, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, there is also short - term pressure from factors such as expected hot metal production cuts, continuous steel inventory accumulation, and a decline in coal daily consumption in August. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal price has a callback in the futures market, and the coke's seventh - round price increase has partially landed. In the medium term, the coking coal price center will gradually rise, and one can wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices [11]. - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The factors driving price increases are weakening, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand [16]. - For ferroalloys, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a bottom - oscillating trend recently. The high - premium risk has been largely released, and the supply and demand sides have different characteristics that need attention [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [2]. - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+10), in Beijing was 3,260 yuan (-), the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,420 yuan (-10), and in Tianjin was 3,370 yuan (-10) [3]. Logic Analysis - The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend in the night session yesterday. Steel production resumed this week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of the five major steel products accumulated, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained strong, and building - material demand rebounded from the bottom. Steel demand has shown some repair, and high hot - metal production and strong exports support steel prices. However, with the approaching military parade, hot - metal production is expected to decrease next week, and there is short - term pressure on steel prices. But the production - cut window is short, and the downside space is limited. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price maintains a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low and continue to hold. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points from last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points from last year. The steel - mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.189 million tons from last year. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average raw - coal output was 1.912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons. The raw - coal inventory was 4.716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons. The daily average clean - coal output was 771,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The clean - coal inventory was 2.756 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons [9]. - The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,596 yuan/ton, in Rizhao Port was 1,616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,700 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 5 coal was 1,099 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 coal was 1,063 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) was 1,235 yuan/ton [10]. Logic Analysis - The hot - metal production increased slightly this week, and the steel mills' demand for raw materials was resilient. The coal - mine production also increased slightly, but considering factors such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the resumption of production is expected to be limited. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled recently, and the coking - coal price in the futures market has corrected. In the spot market, the coking - coal price has both increases and decreases, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The seventh - round price increase of coke has partially landed and is expected to be fully implemented in the next two days. In the medium term, due to relevant policies on over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disturbed, and the coking - coal price center will gradually rise [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore Related Information - The EU and the US issued a joint statement, announcing the details of the new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. - As of August 2025, 20 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization have been approved, with a total debt - resolution scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan. - The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan (+2), converted to the standard product was 810 yuan; the spot price of Super Special fines was 650 yuan (+5), converted to the standard product was 876 yuan; the spot price of Carajas fines was 881 yuan (+3), converted to the standard product was 838 yuan. The mainstream pricing product was PB fines with a spot price of 769 yuan (+2) and a standard - product price of 810 yuan, and the basis of the main contract of iron ore 01 was 38 [14]. Logic Analysis - The iron ore price oscillated narrowly in the night session. Fundamentally, the shipment of mainstream mines was stable, and it was difficult to see a large increase year - on - year. The shipment of non - mainstream mines in August continued to be at a high level year - on - year and was expected to contribute a certain increase. On the demand side, the growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in July. The weakening of manufacturing may be due to the relatively fast progress of equipment - renewal funds in the first half of the year and the slowdown in the second half. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak. The steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year - on - year in the first half of the year, but it has weakened significantly in the third quarter so far, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. Overall, the factors driving the price increase have weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand, so the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. Trading Strategies No specific trading strategies for iron ore are provided in a complete form in the text. Ferroalloys Related Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 747,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%. In July, the domestic billet export volume was 157,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07%. - On the 21st, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lump was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron ore was 29.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree [18]. Logic Analysis - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production has been increasing recently. Pay attention to whether the resumption - of - production trend will stop after the price decline. On the demand side, the sample steel production still remained at a high level this week, supporting the demand for raw materials. After the significant price decline this week, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [18]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese - ore spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the price of Gabon lump at Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The overall silicomanganese spot price declined, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, also pay attention to whether the current resumption - of - production rhythm will be interrupted after the price decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand of the rebar sample increased slightly this week and has not yet formed a downward trend. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently. - Arbitrage: Enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low. - Options: Sell a straddle option combination at high prices [20].

Report Title - "Iron Alloy Morning Report" [1] Report Date - August 22, 2025 [2] Key Information on Silicon Iron Price - For natural silicon iron blocks: in Ningxia 72, the spot price is 5330 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 170; in Inner Mongolia 72, it's 5300, down 50 daily and 150 weekly; in Qinghai 72, 5300, down 50 daily and 200 weekly; in Shaanxi 72, 5300, no daily change and a 150 weekly decrease; in Shaanxi 75, 5900, no daily change and a 100 weekly increase [2]. - For qualified silicon iron blocks in Jiangsu 72, the spot price is 5600, with no daily change and a 50 weekly decrease [2]. - For silicon iron export prices in Tianjin 72, it's 1055, no daily change and a 30 weekly increase; in Tianjin 75, it's 1110, up 10 daily and 35 weekly [2]. Futures - The main contract price of silicon iron is 5638, up 16 daily and down 106 weekly; the 01 contract is 5614, up 14 daily and down 290 weekly; the 05 contract is 5734, up 6 daily and down 304 weekly; the 09 contract is 5454, up 8 daily and down 290 weekly [2]. Spreads - The main - month basis is - 8, down 16 daily and 64 weekly; the 1 - 5 month spread is - 120, up 8 daily and 14 weekly; the 5 - 9 month spread is 280, down 2 daily and 14 weekly; the 9 - 1 month spread is - 160, down 6 daily and no weekly change; the double - silicon main spread is - 200, up 14 daily and 106 weekly [2]. Key Information on Silicon Manganese Price - For silicon manganese production areas: in Inner Mongolia 6517, the ex - factory price is 5750, no daily change and a 50 weekly decrease; in Ningxia 6517, it's 5570, down 30 daily and 300 weekly; in Guangxi 6517, 5780, down 20 daily and 120 weekly; in Guizhou 6517, 5730, down 20 daily and 140 weekly; in Yunnan 6517, 5730, down 20 daily and 140 weekly; in Guangxi 6014, 5250, down 50 daily and 50 weekly [2]. Futures - The main contract price of silicon manganese is 5838, up 2 daily and down 212 weekly; the 01 contract is 5838, up 2 daily and down 306 weekly; the 05 contract is 5888, up 2 daily and down 290 weekly; the 09 contract is 5746, down 10 daily and 304 weekly [2]. Spreads - The main - month basis is 132, down 32 daily and up 82 weekly; the 1 - 5 month spread is - 50, no daily change and a 16 weekly decrease; the 5 - 9 month spread is 142, up 12 daily and 14 weekly; the 9 - 1 month spread is - 92, down 12 daily and up 2 weekly [2]