Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent bidding prices for silicon iron have shown slight increases across various steel mills, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1][2] - Fujian steel mill announced a silicon iron bidding price of 5550 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 20 CNY/ton from June [1] - A steel mill in North China set its silicon iron bidding price at 5600 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous round, with a procurement quantity of 4500 tons [1] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve moderately due to the recent bidding prices, although actual demand remains limited due to the traditional off-season [2] - The current mainstream quotation for silicon iron 75B is around 5300 CNY/ton, with cash-inclusive prices in regions like Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranging from 5465 to 5779 CNY/ton [2] - The SF2509 futures contract exhibited a wide fluctuation today, closing at 5494 points, indicating mixed market sentiment with price movements near short-term averages [3] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the silicon iron market may maintain a stable trend in the short term, with limited potential for significant price adjustments [6] - Industry confidence appears to be somewhat cautious due to ongoing reports of steel mill production cuts and the deepening traditional demand off-season [6] - Close monitoring of supply-demand dynamics, raw material price trends, and futures performance is recommended for future market outlooks [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on July 15, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Tianjin 72 export (in US dollars) was 1010, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 50, and the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with a weekly increase of 80 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, export and import average prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and procurement data from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The report shows the demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the estimated demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. - It also includes data on the production of related downstream products, such as the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions, and data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast quantity, and inventory average available days, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - carbonated manganese ore and lanthanum charcoal, and production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5][6][7]. - The profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including spot profit, profit after converting to the main contract, and export profit [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - **Market Review** - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - **Market Review** - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Silicon Ferrosilicon - Last week, the silicon ferrosilicon futures market rose after a surge but continued to lift its center of gravity. Rumors on Thursday drove a rapid rebound in the market, but local enterprises did not receive relevant news. Supply and demand data showed little fluctuation, with raw material costs expected to remain stable and manufacturer inventories slightly increasing after a halt in decline. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5400 - 5800 [4]. Manganese Silico - Manganese - Last week, the weekly supply of manganese silico - manganese increased while demand decreased, and the futures market slightly declined after a surge. The short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, but the overall manganese ore inventory is low, and the cost support has strengthened. The alloy trading idea is short - term long and long - term short, and the industry can consider hedging when the basis is repaired and the upper pressure level is reached. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5700 - 6000 [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises was 9.87 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 13.7% year - on - year). The output in June 2025 was 41.41 tons (down 0.18% month - on - month and 14.13% year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2.01 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - Manufacturer inventory was 7.02 tons (up 4.8% week - on - week and 22.8% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.38 days (up 0.18 days month - on - month and 0.83 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - Electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The prices of other raw materials such as semi - coke remained stable. The cost of silicon ferrosilicon in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, and the profit increased [14]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract was 90 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,519 (up 8,242 week - on - week and 6,903 year - on - year) [17]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [19]. Manganese Silico - Manganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent manganese silico - manganese enterprises was 18.2 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week and down 18.2% year - on - year). The national output in June was 75.23 tons (up 1.3% month - on - month and down 19.1% year - on - year) [24]. Demand - The weekly consumption of manganese silico - manganese was 12.49 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 3.7% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [26]. Inventory - The sample enterprise inventory was 22.08 tons (down 0.67% week - on - week and up 51.4% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.49 days (up 0.34 days month - on - month and 0.42 days year - on - year) [29]. Cost - Manganese ore quotes were firm. Electricity prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the cost of manganese silico - manganese in various regions decreased slightly while the profit increased [36]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton, down 48 week - on - week. The number of manganese silico - manganese warehouse receipts was 85,037 (down 3,649 week - on - week and 43,238 year - on - year) [31]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [38].

上周五，硅铁2509合约收盘5460，下跌2.08%，现货端，宁夏硅铁现货报5330，上涨30元/吨。 （7月14日）全国硅铁价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | 报价 | 型 | 地 | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 新华实业 | 5180元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏新华实业集团有限公司 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 中卫银河 | 5180元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏中卫县银河冶炼有限公 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | 司 | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 三元中泰 | 5220元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏三元中泰冶金有限公司 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 大有冶炼 | 5180元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏中卫市大有冶炼有限公 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | 司 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Coke**: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - **Fundamentals**: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - **Price and Position**: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Performance**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On July 14, 2025, the latest price of silicon - iron natural block (Ningxia 72) was 5200 yuan, with a daily change of 50 yuan and a weekly change of 50 yuan; the latest price of silicon - iron qualified block (Jiangsu 72) was 5600 yuan, with a daily change of 0 yuan and a weekly change of 100 yuan; the latest price of silicon - manganese产区出厂价 (Inner Mongolia 6517) was 5600 yuan, with a daily change of 50 yuan and a weekly change of 50 yuan [2] - There are long - term price trend charts for various silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices, export and import prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6] Supply - There are data on the production volume of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rate and start - up rate of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly and weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [4] - The weekly production volume data of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6] Demand - There are data on the estimated and actual production volume of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten thousand tons), the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly, in ten thousand tons), and the demand volume of silicon - manganese in China (in ten thousand tons) from 2021 - 2025 [4][6][7] - Data on the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) and the procurement volume and price of FeMn65Si17 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) are provided [4][6] Inventory - There are data on the inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), and the inventory data of silicon - iron in CZCE (including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and their sum, daily) from 2021 - 2025 [5] - There are data on the inventory of silicon - manganese in CZCE (including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and their sum, daily), and the inventory data of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2021 - 2025 [7] Cost and Profit - There are data on the electricity price of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia (daily), the market price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi (daily), the start - up rate of semi - coke in China (weekly), and the production profit of semi - coke in China (daily) from 2021 - 2025 [5] - Data on the production cost, profit from converting to the main contract, and spot profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon - iron are provided [5] - Data on the profit of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit from converting Guangxi silicon - manganese to the main contract are provided [7]

Group 1 - The company held an online investor reception day on July 2025, where executives discussed operational performance and future plans with investors [1] - The company emphasizes high dividend returns to shareholders and aims to maintain current dividend levels despite market conditions [1][2] - The company plans to focus on technological innovation and supply chain upgrades to enhance competitiveness in the chlor-alkali chemical, clean energy, and ferroalloy sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The company has no current plans for A and B share consolidation or mid-term dividend schemes, and coal sales accounted for approximately 9% of revenue while clothing sales accounted for about 15% in 2024 [2] - The company reported a 32% year-on-year profit increase in the first quarter, primarily due to significant reductions in product costs [3] - The company is exploring new growth opportunities and optimizing its business layout, including potential entry into the medical sector through its investment in Richde Medical Technology [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From 2011 to the present, the price of ferromanganese silicon has experienced three fluctuation cycles, and it may currently be in the fourth downward cycle. The low price in June this year has broken through the low of the second cycle. The price fluctuations are affected by factors such as supply - side reform, demand changes, policy drives, and supply disruptions [5]. - The global manganese resource supply continues to expand, leading to a weakening of global manganese ore prices due to the oversupply situation. The production distribution of global manganese - based metals has changed significantly, with South Africa's dominant position strengthening and Gabon rising rapidly [6][12]. - The quotations of overseas mining enterprises and ports are oscillating downward, causing the production cost center of ferromanganese silicon to shift downward. The oversupply of manganese ore, weak port quotations, and reduced production costs all contribute to the downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [13][15]. - The ferromanganese silicon production is concentrated in the northern regions, while the over - capacity problem in the southern regions persists. The overall capacity of ferromanganese silicon continues to expand, but the regional distribution is uneven, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand [25]. - In the second half of 2025, there may be a concentrated production of ferromanganese silicon, mainly in Inner Mongolia in the northern region. With the development of new energy projects, the production cost of ferromanganese silicon may be further compressed [26]. - The raw material ore end of ferromanganese silicon may be a factor for price rebound, but the overall oversupply situation mainly drives the price downward. The periodic fluctuations of manganese ore prices and the switching of ferromanganese silicon supply - demand affect the bearish cycle of ferromanganese silicon [28][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2011 - 2015 Bear Market Cycle and Current Cycle Comparison - From 2011 - 2015, the price of ferromanganese silicon continuously hit new lows due to the enrichment of manganese ore import structure, lower quotations, weakened cost support, and over - capacity [5]. - In 2011 - 2015, the global production of manganese - based metals increased, but the production distribution changed significantly. The production in Australia, Brazil, India, China, etc., decreased to some extent [12]. - During 2013 - 2015, the production of ferromanganese silicon decreased sharply, while the production of crude steel remained stable. The oversupply of manganese ore, lower port quotations, and reduced production costs led to a downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [14][15]. Manganese Silicon Historical Price Review - From 2011 - 2025 to date, the price of ferromanganese silicon has gone through three fluctuation cycles: 2011 - 2015 (downward), 2016 - 2018 (supply - side reform with rising prices), 2018 - 2020 (weak demand with over - capacity intensification), 2020 - 2021 (policy - driven rebound), 2021 - 2024 (deepening over - capacity), 2024 (price fluctuations due to supply disruptions and production adjustments) [5]. Global Manganese Resource Supply - The global manganese resource supply continues to expand, and the oversupply of manganese ore has led to a weakening of global ore prices. The production distribution of global manganese - based metals has changed, with South Africa strengthening its dominant position and Gabon rising rapidly [6][12]. Manganese Ore Quotations and Production Costs - The quotations of overseas mining enterprises and ports are oscillating downward, causing the production cost center of ferromanganese silicon to shift downward. The oversupply of manganese ore, weak port quotations, and reduced production costs all contribute to the downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [13][15]. Manganese Silicon Capacity and Production Distribution - From 2011 - 2024, the national ferromanganese silicon capacity increased from 1598000 tons to 2859000 tons, with an expansion of 44%. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had more obvious capacity expansions [18]. - The production of ferromanganese silicon is concentrated in the northern regions, while the over - capacity problem in the southern regions persists. The overall capacity of ferromanganese silicon continues to expand, but the regional distribution is uneven, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand [23][25]. New Energy and Ferromanganese Silicon Cost - In the second half of 2025, there may be a concentrated production of ferromanganese silicon, mainly in Inner Mongolia in the northern region. With the development of "source - network - load - storage" projects and the increase in the proportion of green power use, the production cost of ferromanganese silicon may be further compressed [26]. Factors Affecting Ferromanganese Silicon Prices - The raw material ore end of ferromanganese silicon may be a factor for price rebound, but the overall oversupply situation mainly drives the price downward. The periodic fluctuations of manganese ore prices and the switching of ferromanganese silicon supply - demand affect the bearish cycle of ferromanganese silicon [28][31].