研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|铁合金周报 2025-04-27 产能宽松背景下，合金持续走弱 策略摘要 硅锰方面，受到行业利润影响，硅锰产量继续下降。铁水产量环比增加，硅锰需求存 在韧性。由于硅锰产能充足，一旦利润改善，产量具备快速提升空间。考虑原料锰矿 港口库存处于低位，对合金成本具备一定支撑，关注锰矿供给端情况。硅铁方面，尽 管需求好转，但亏损情况下，硅铁产量高位回落，而厂家库存环比大增，下游企业库 存维持低位。由于硅铁产能相对宽松，价格仍将受到需求偏弱压制，后续关注产业政 策对黑色板块 ...

2025 年 4 月 27 日 锰硅：成本支撑减弱，锰硅偏弱震荡 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei029984@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan029838@gtjas.com | 报告导读： 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,640 元/吨，周环比变化-42 元/吨，成交 523,015 手，持仓 168,404 手，持仓环比变化-57,792 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡偏弱， 收于 5,796 元/吨，周环比变化-100 元/吨，成交 226995 手，持仓 87763 手，持仓环比变化 54,077 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 9.89 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.14 万吨，环比变化率为-1.4%。周开工 率为 30.91%，较上周变动-1.49 个百分点。锰硅本周产量 18.61 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.26 万吨，环比变化率为-1.4%，周开工率为 41.5 ...

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

最新：西南某钢厂最新硅铁招标价格敲定为6130/6140元/吨，相较上轮定价下调100元/吨，采购总量900吨；江苏某钢厂最新硅铁招标 启动，采购数量1550吨，后期最终定价情况本网站相关人员将会继续跟踪报道。 期货：震荡整理！ （转自：合金现货网） 现货：暂稳运行！！ 有明显波动，买卖双方僵持，整体暂呈观望态势。就本网站相关人员表示，今日硅铁75B主流报价仍在5600元/吨上下，整体报价相较 上一交易日变化不大。另，合金宝指数显示，截止上午九点，今日合金宝指数相较上一交易日暂稳运行，市场报价未有明显波动。其 中，河南、河北、山东、江苏等地硅铁75B现金含税包到价格在5755-6059元/吨之间，具体如下图所示： 综合来看 综合而言，短期硅铁行情或延续窄幅震荡，市场等待钢招定价指引，预计价格大幅调整的可能性不大。若招标价持平或小幅上移，可 能带动现货企稳；若招标价显著低于预期，则价格或再度承压。另，若供应收缩力度超预期或需求边际改善，市场或迎来阶段性反弹 机会，反之亦然。因此，综合各种情况分析，建议密切关注钢招定价、主产区减产执行情况及电价政策变动。且下周即将迎来五一小 长假，届时或迎来一波节前补库，但最终能 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the weekly output continued to decline, consumption slightly rebounded, traders were cautious with low - inventory. Steel mills pressured prices during procurement, and the game continued. Although the approaching Politburo meeting improved the market atmosphere and provided some support at low prices, the medium - term bearish pattern remained unchanged, and prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level. Strategies could be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For silicomanganese, the mills' losses persisted, production continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, weekly consumption decreased, and the pressure from high - level warehouse receipts remained. The price of manganese ore weakened, and port inventory was at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicomanganese remained loose, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly at a low level [28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 10030 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year increase of 9.02%. In March 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 50270 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.85% and a year - on - year increase of 18.02% [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2050 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.45%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 9490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.15% and a year - on - year increase of 50.45%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.26 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.42 days. The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 13757, a week - on - week increase of 2552 and a year - on - year decrease of 1587 [12][20]. 3.1.4 Cost - The electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the price of oxidized iron scale dropped, leading to a slight decline in costs. Although the profit in Inner Mongolia improved, overall losses still existed [4][17]. 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was 218 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 146 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.6 Position - The total position of ferrosilicon increased [21]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 18860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62% and a year - on - year increase of 18.57%. In March 2025, the national silicomanganese output was 89910 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.68% and a year - on - year increase of 6.52% [31]. 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 12630 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 3.44%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [34]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 15760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.57%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.61 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.58 days. The number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 119504, a week - on - week increase of 2003 and a year - on - year increase of 67274 [37][38]. 3.2.4 Cost - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port continued to decline, and the cost of silicomanganese kept moving down. Although the electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased and the profit improved, losses still persisted [28][44]. 3.2.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was +154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2.6 Position - The total position of silicomanganese increased on a weekly basis [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - On April 21, 2025, the latest price of silicon - iron natural block (Ningxia 72) was 5550, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50; the latest price of silicon - iron qualified block (Jiangsu 72) was 5850, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50; the latest price of silicon - manganese产区出厂价 (Inner Mongolia 6517) was 5700, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [2] - The report also presents historical price trends of various silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products from 2021 to 2025, including market prices in different regions, export and import prices, and contract prices [3][4][6] Supply - There are data on the production volume of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 to 2025 [4] - The production volume and enterprise start - up rate of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 are also provided [6] Demand - Data on the demand for silicon - manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, steel - union caliber) from 2021 to 2025 are presented, as well as the production volume of crude steel and stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the procurement volume and price of silicon - iron by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][7] Inventory - Information on the inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), as well as CZCE silicon - iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 to 2025 are provided [5] - For silicon - manganese, data on CZCE warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, inventory average available days in China, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly) from 2021 to 2025 are given [7] Cost and Profit - The report shows the electricity prices of ferroalloys in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi), the market price of blue - carbon, start - up rate, production profit, and the cost and profit of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions from 2021 to 2025 [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market - On April 15, the silicon iron 2506 contract closed at 5774, down 1.47%, while the spot price in Ningxia remained stable at 5800 [1] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that Fed Governor Waller suggested tariffs might lead the Fed to lower interest rates to avoid economic recession amid high inflation [1] - The profit margin for silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is -63 CNY/ton, while in Ningxia it is +1 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market - On April 15, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5960, down 1.32%, with the spot price in Inner Mongolia reported at 5750, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows that the weighted average interest rate for new personal housing loans in March was approximately 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [2] - The profit margin for manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is -120 CNY/ton, and in Ningxia it is -380 CNY/ton [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Silicon ferroalloy experiences wide - range fluctuations due to the successive shutdowns in major production areas, while manganese ferroalloy fluctuates widely due to the resonance of the black - metal sector [1]. Detailed Summaries 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Data** - Silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract has a closing price of 5944, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 32,205 and an open interest of 74,528. Silicon ferroalloy 2506 contract has a closing price of 5900, down 4 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 139,105 and an open interest of 195,566 [1]. - Manganese ferroalloy 2505 contract has a closing price of 5966, up 52 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 184,214 and an open interest of 292,991. Manganese ferroalloy 2506 contract has a closing price of 5988, up 54 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 35,035 and an open interest of 95,144 [1]. - **Spot Data** - The aggregated price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5620 yuan/ton. The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 1 yuan/ton - degree from the previous day. The price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shenmu is 610 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads** - The spot - 05 futures price spread of silicon ferroalloy is - 324 yuan/ton, and that of manganese ferroalloy is - 166 yuan/ton. The near - far month price spread of silicon ferroalloy 2505 - 2509 is 6 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The near - far month price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2505 - 2509 is - 90 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2505 - silicon ferroalloy 2505 is 22 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous day. The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 is 118 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On April 10th, the price range of 72 silicon ferroalloy is 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton in different regions, and the price range of 75 silicon ferroalloy is 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1050 - 1080 dollars/ton, and that of 75 is 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 fluctuates, and the spot quotation is scarce, with the factory quotes mostly in the range of 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [1]. - South32 announced that the offer price of South African semi - carbonate block (typical value Mn36.9%) in May 2025 is 4.05 dollars/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.6 dollars/ton - degree compared with April [1]. - A new silicon - ferroalloy maintenance enterprise in Qinghai, Qinghai Shouheng, is maintaining 1 unit, affecting the daily output by 30 tons. Qinghai Yehua maintained 2 units of 18500kva silicon - ferroalloy furnaces yesterday, reducing the daily output by 100 - 110 tons [2][3]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summaries by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on April 10, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 5,600, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 is 5,620, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly decrease of 130. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1,075 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese alloy at the production area's ex - factory price is 5,750, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various types of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy in different regions from 2021 - 2025, including market prices, export and import average prices, and price differences between different contracts [3][4][6]. Supply - The report shows the production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly data, as well as the capacity utilization rates of silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. For silicon manganese, it shows the production volume in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][6]. Demand - The report provides data on the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 (Steel Union's caliber). It also presents data on the production volume of crude steel in China, the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, etc., which can reflect the demand situation to some extent [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including national and regional (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) data, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions from 2021 - 2025. For silicon manganese, it shows the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [5][7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, it presents the electricity prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025. For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of silicon manganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions from 2021 - 2025 [5][7].