Core Viewpoint - Financial cycle adjustments lead to significant changes in asset allocation, with a systematic increase in the proportion of safe assets and a decrease in real estate allocation, while stock assets may see a systematic increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Cycle Adjustments - Financial cycle adjustments indicate a shift in economic growth models, emphasizing efficiency improvements from technological innovation and population quality [3][4]. - The analysis shows that after a peak in real estate prices, the proportion of safe assets increases by over 5 percentage points in the fifth year, while real estate allocation decreases by about 8 percentage points, and stock allocation increases by approximately 3 percentage points [2][3]. - In the sixth to tenth years post-peak, safe asset allocation rises by around 5 percentage points, real estate allocation declines by about 10 percentage points, and stock allocation increases by approximately 5 percentage points [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Changes - The adjustment in the financial cycle leads to a significant change in investor risk preferences, with a tendency for safe assets to increase in allocation [5][6]. - International experiences show that after a financial cycle peak, the proportion of real estate in household asset allocation decreases systematically, while stock-related assets increase [7][10]. - For example, in the U.S., even after real estate prices recovered to previous highs, the allocation to real estate decreased from 45.0% to 36.0%, while stock-related assets increased from 36.9% to 44.4% [8][10]. Group 3: Impact on Chinese Market - In China, the proportion of safe assets in urban households is estimated to rise from about 16% in 2021 to approximately 27% by Q3 2025, while real estate allocation is expected to decrease from 74% to 58%, and stock-related assets to increase from 9% to 15% [16][17]. - The shift in monetary policy, particularly the increase in fiscal contributions to money supply, is expected to support the rise of stock allocations while reducing the appeal of real estate investments [17][20]. - The analysis indicates that the stock market's elasticity to monetary supply has increased, while the elasticity of the real estate market has decreased, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards equities [22][24]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Valuation - The differentiation in return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) between traditional and new economy sectors has become more pronounced, with new economy sectors showing improvement while traditional sectors lag [51][52]. - The valuation of new economy sectors has increased significantly, while traditional sectors have seen little change, indicating a potential need for traditional sectors to improve their valuations to sustain market growth [56][57]. - The analysis of A-share market performance shows that the new economy sectors have outperformed traditional sectors, aligning with the broader trend of efficiency-driven growth [59].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a new round of increases driven by liquidity, with both internal and external liquidity remaining abundant [1][2]. Liquidity and Valuation - Factors constraining liquidity have eased, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improved funding conditions in Hong Kong, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and the resolution of profit concerns following the interim reports [2][3]. - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, accounting for about 30% of market transactions, becoming a significant market support [3]. Fundamental and Policy Analysis - The earnings growth of Hong Kong companies is at a historically low level, with a clear division between old and new economic structures [2]. - China is maintaining a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the effectiveness of policy implementation [2]. Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes three offensive sectors (technology, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials) and two defensive positions (turnaround stocks and high-dividend stocks) [4]. - Technology stocks are expected to see sustainable growth potential, with the Hang Seng Technology Index valued at only half of the Nasdaq [4]. - Non-bank financials are benefiting from record trading volumes and improved investment returns [4]. - High-dividend strategies are supported by a stable dividend yield of 6.12% from the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index, with increasing demand for dividend stocks [4].

来源：市场资讯 来源：招商证券策略研究 展望后市，港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎来新一轮上涨。从港股中 报数据来看，港股公司业绩增速处于历史较低水平，新旧经济结构分化明显，以科技为主导的结构性行 情具有坚实的盈利支撑。配置方向上聚焦三进攻（科技、有色、非银）+两底仓（困境反转、红利）。 核心观点 ⚑ 港股9月核心观点。短期看，港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎来新 一轮上涨。9月制约流动性因素有所缓解：1）美联储降息推进；2）香港市场资金面偏紧问题缓解；3） 南向资金持续流入港股市场；4）中报"靴子落地"，盈利担忧利空出尽。中长期来看，随着供需格局改 善，经济企稳回升，可能将迎来需求景气拐点，上市公司的盈利也有望底部反转。港股作为全球估值洼 地，估值修复空间很大。 ⚑ 基本面与政策：弱复苏格局延续，政策强调落地执行。港股公司业绩增速处于历史较低水平，新旧经 济结构分化明显。中国延续更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策基调，更强调政策的落地和有效 性。产业政策聚焦"人工智能+"，国务院印发相关行动意见，新质生产力培育进入加速期。 ⚑ 流动性与估值：内外资合力 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 09 月 15 日 流动性驱动港股新一轮上涨，聚焦三进攻+两底仓 ——港股 9 月策略月报 展望后市，港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎 来新一轮上涨。从港股中报数据来看，港股公司业绩增速处于历史较低水平， 新旧经济结构分化明显，以科技为主导的结构性行情具有坚实的盈利支撑。配 置方向上聚焦三进攻（科技、有色、非银）+两底仓（困境反转、红利）。 ❑ 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期、海外政策超预期收紧。 专题报告 相关报告 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1、《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何 ——港股系列研究报告（1）》 2、《港股市场流动性跟踪框架 ——港股系列研究报告（2）》 策略研究 一、大势研判：流动性驱动反弹，突出结构性机会 短期观点：港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎来新 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining core investment themes while exploring new platforms in the A-share market for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][4] - Key recommended sectors include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military industry, financial IT, power equipment, and agricultural products [3] - The report anticipates a more abundant liquidity environment due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may enhance market expectations [4][10] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected to steadily decline, with GDP growth expected at 5.0% for 2025, and 4.6% for Q4 2025 [10][11] - Consumer retail sales are forecasted to grow by 3.8% for the year, with a significant slowdown in investment across various sectors, particularly in real estate, which is expected to decline by 14.3% [10][11] - The report highlights that while exports are expected to maintain a high level of activity, a slight decline in growth is anticipated in Q4 due to high base effects from the previous year [19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated recovery of the RMB exchange rate, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may attract foreign capital inflows [42][61] - It notes that the central bank has a clear intention to guide the RMB towards appreciation, which is crucial for maintaining market liquidity [47][61] - The report also indicates that the RMB's appreciation could lead to increased foreign investment in domestic stocks, enhancing overall market liquidity [61][62]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the market, predicting a "systematic slow bull" trend with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to challenge the 0.618 retracement level of the largest decline since 2015, indicating ample bullish potential [4][68][69] - The report emphasizes a market style rotation favoring mid to large-cap stocks, with a focus on growth-oriented valuations, particularly in the consumer, cyclical, and growth sectors [5][81] - The report identifies three key "expectation gaps" for industry allocation: the dominance of large financials in market height, the need for investment and consumption to meet GDP growth targets, and the potential shift in technology investments from hardware to software sectors [6][84] Group 2 - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve for growth, consumption, and cyclical styles, while financial and stable styles may see a decline [84] - The report notes that the recent policy measures have been supportive, with a focus on technology, real estate, and consumption, aligning with the current economic characteristics [12][18] - The report suggests that the construction of new policy financial tools is likely to support infrastructure investment growth, which may positively impact related sectors [18][84]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index declining while the ChiNext Index remains strong, indicating sector-specific movements and underlying market dynamics [1] Market Performance - As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26% to 3860.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.52% to 3066.18 points [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 23034 billion [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as insurance, banking, liquor, brokerage, and non-ferrous metals experienced declines, while agriculture, automotive, and real estate sectors saw gains [1] - Active sectors included online gaming, CXO concepts, and robotics [1] Investment Insights - Huaxi Securities emphasizes that the driving force behind the current bull market remains unchanged, with strong policy support for stabilizing the stock market and abundant potential incremental funds from residents [1] - High-growth sectors are expected to enjoy valuation premiums during industrial transformations, with a focus on hard technology and new productivity areas likely to receive policy catalysts following the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October [1] - The recent increase in overseas AI industry capital expenditure expectations has positively influenced market sentiment [1] - A selection of high-growth sectors is recommended, including solid-state batteries, energy storage, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI applications, and humanoid robots, as well as new consumption areas like IP economy and oral tobacco [1] - The backdrop of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may provide dual support for Hong Kong stocks through foreign and southbound capital inflows, particularly in the internet sector [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that macro narratives, disappointing domestic economic data for July, the Federal Reserve's open stance on interest rate cuts, and abundant market liquidity are key factors driving market strength. The report anticipates that after fluctuations, non-bank financials, represented by brokerages, are likely to show an upward trend [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the strengthening trends in the brokerage and financial IT sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Guolian Minsheng and those with valuation expansion potential like Dongfang Securities and Huatai Securities [1][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Points - The report covers the performance of the CSI 300 index at 4522 points (up 1.38%), the insurance index at 1288.79 points (down 0.7%), and the brokerage index at 7251.34 points (up 0.66%) for the week of September 8-12, 2025 [7]. - The report notes that the U.S. CPI for August met expectations, but initial jobless claims data was unexpectedly poor, reinforcing expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [7][8]. 2. Key Investment Portfolio 2.1 Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is viewed as having attractive valuation recovery potential, with specific recommendations for stocks such as China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance [12]. 2.2 Brokerage Sector - The report highlights the potential of mid-sized securities firms benefiting from innovation and market conditions, recommending stocks like Dongfang Wealth and Zhejiang Securities. It also suggests focusing on leading firms with diversified revenue structures such as Huatai Securities and China Galaxy Securities [13].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the positive impact of the comprehensive deepening reform of technology finance, which has led to a strong rise in financial technology and brokerage concepts, as evidenced by the performance of related ETFs [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 11:10 AM on September 15, the Financial Technology ETF Huaxia (516100) increased by 0.52%, with mixed performance among its holdings [1]. - Leading stocks included Ronglian Technology, Wealth Trend, New Morning Technology, Guiding Compass, and Shenzhou Information, while stocks like Donghua Software, Jinke New Materials, and Digital Certification experienced significant declines [1]. - The Brokerage ETF Fund (515010) rose by 0.41% [1]. Group 2: Policy and Strategic Implications - The Central Committee's decision on further deepening reforms emphasizes the systematic support role of technology finance, aiming to enhance its functional positioning and promote the integration of innovation, industry, value, and financial chains [1]. - The initiative is expected to support the construction of a strong technology and financial nation, contributing to the overall modernization and national rejuvenation efforts in China [1]. Group 3: ETF Composition and Benefits - The Financial Technology ETF Huaxia (516100) tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, covering sectors such as stock trading software, software development, digital currency, and digital security [1]. - It has a stablecoin content of 21.22%, digital currency content of 36.12%, and stock trading software content of 22.48%, all of which are the highest among market ETFs [1]. - The ETF is anticipated to benefit from the market recovery and the dual advantages of AI [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of 3888 points, setting a new annual high [2][3][16] - The technology sector remains the main driving force of the market, with expectations for continued performance despite recent fluctuations [2][3][16] - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with more stocks declining than rising, indicating a cautious approach among investors [5][19] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to continue as the main focus, with potential for internal rotation and high-low switches within the sector [2][3][16] - Solid-state batteries and new technologies in the renewable energy sector are highlighted as areas of opportunity, particularly for leading companies with core technology reserves [2][3][16] - The cyclical sectors and high-end manufacturing are seen as key beneficiaries of economic recovery, presenting further investment opportunities [2][3][16] - The brokerage sector is benefiting from increased market activity, with direct profits from brokerage and margin financing businesses [2][3][16] Recent Performance - The three major indices have all reached new highs for the year, indicating a potential continuation of the volatile bull market [3][17] - The PPI in the US decreased by 0.1% in August, easing inflationary pressures and raising expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3][17] - Trading volume has rebounded, with total trading exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a return to a strong trading environment [3][17] Investment Strategy - For companies with strong fundamentals and clear industry prospects, maintaining positions is recommended [18] - It is advisable to reduce exposure to sectors that have seen excessive gains and high valuations [18] - Attention should be given to second-tier technology leaders, cyclical sectors, and brokerage stocks during market corrections for structural opportunities [18]