1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market showed a strong upward trend on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive positive days and breaking through the 4100-point mark. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating a high level of market activity. The overall economic climate in China is improving, with the CPI and PPI showing positive trends, and the PMI indices rising above the expansion range [15]. - Different commodity futures have various trends and investment suggestions. For example, in the black sector, it is expected to be in a short - term shock and medium - long - term bottom - building state; in the agricultural product sector, different products such as cotton, sugar, and eggs have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [18][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council's Anti - monopoly and Anti - unfair Competition Committee Office will investigate and evaluate the market competition in the food delivery platform service industry. Meituan, Taobao Flash Delivery, and JD Delivery will cooperate actively [8]. - China declared multiple satellite constellation plans to the ITU in the last week of 2025, with a total scale of over 200,000 satellites [8]. - The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in January 2026 is completely dashed. The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased, reducing the possibility of an interest rate cut [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, including loan discount policies and risk - sharing mechanisms [9]. - In December 2025, China's CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year, and the PPI decline narrowed. The CPI and PPI both increased month - on - month [9]. - The regulatory authorities have issued new policy guidance on real estate financing, allowing loans for projects on the "white list" to be extended for up to 5 years [9]. - China has made a major breakthrough in the extraction and separation technology of salt lake lithium resources, improving the lithium ion recovery rate and reducing costs and energy consumption [9]. - DeepSeek plans to launch a new flagship AI model V4 around the Chinese New Year in mid - February, which shows better performance in code generation than existing mainstream models [10]. - The AGI - Next Frontier Summit believes that the competition in large models has shifted from the "Chat" to the "Agent" stage [10]. - Fund companies and sales institutions have received a notice on the implementation of regulations on the sales fees of publicly offered securities investment funds, with three key points attracting attention [10]. - The price of storage chips has skyrocketed, and tech giants are competing for DRAM supplies. The price of 8GB DDR4 memory has increased by more than 5 times in a year [11]. - The US Supreme Court has not made a ruling on Trump's tariffs, and the next announcement is on January 14. The government is prepared to re - implement tariffs if necessary [11]. - Trump has cancelled the second wave of military strikes against Venezuela, maintained the deployment of US ships, and plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities to lower mortgage rates [11]. - Trump has called for setting a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year starting from January 20, but the feasibility is uncertain [12]. - Trump discussed with oil company executives how to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and announced that the US will start refining and selling up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider following the trend, but be cautious about chasing highs due to the recent large short - term gains. The A - share market has been rising strongly, and the economic climate is improving, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock platform [14][15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to flatten the yield curve. The money market is balanced, and the bond market sentiment has declined. The central bank's monetary policy shows a retreat trend, and fiscal subsidy policies for consumption have been announced [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Spiral Steel Rebar and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is no new demand - side policy, and the supply - side policy interference for the steel industry is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits. - Fundamentally, the steel demand is under seasonal pressure, and the supply is relatively stable with low profits. The inventory has started to accumulate, and in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and be in a medium - long - term bottom - building state [18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. The supply side of coal has disturbances, and the downstream demand support has declined. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase, and the rebound space may be limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are still bearish, but the cost side may have a phased positive impact. It is recommended to control positions, hold short positions in silicomanganese at high levels, and temporarily observe ferrosilicon [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply is at a high level, and attention should be paid to new production capacity and cost - side expectations. - For glass, a long - holding strategy or partial profit - taking at high prices can be considered. The market sentiment has been boosted, and attention should be paid to cold repair and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand is still resilient but is expected to weaken compared to December. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [24][25]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - The fundamentals of lead are weak, with low downstream demand. Although the lead price may rebound before delivery, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation dragging down the price. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [26]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals show signs of weakening, but the production resumption expectation is reduced due to mine disruptions. The long - term demand is positive, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [27]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - The downstream demand has phased policy - driven support for export rush. The previous oversupply expectation needs time to verify the turn, and the disk is expected to fluctuate strongly but is still under upward pressure [28]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - It is possible to try to buy at low prices with cautious positions. The market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern after the regulatory meeting, and the export tax - rebate cancellation policy may drive an export rush in the first quarter [28][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The contradiction between pre - festival restocking and declining开工 leads to a short - term downward trend. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and the next target price subsidy policy [32][33]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of both strong supply and demand. The price is under pressure but also supported, and it is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. The global sugar market still faces an oversupply situation [34][35]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The 02 - 03 contracts of eggs are currently at a discount to the spot price and are driven by the short - term strength of the spot market. However, as the inventory of laying hens is still high and the post - holiday demand may decline, the upside space is limited. The futures contracts are in a near - strong and far - weak contango pattern [36]. 3.5.4 Apples - The supply side has the characteristics of "less quantity and poor quality" and low inventory, while the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products may remain stable. The market may show a strong trend if the demand decline is controlled during the Spring Festival [37]. 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The key to the price trend lies in the change of farmers' selling sentiment. Although there are some negative factors, the probability of a "panic selling" before the Spring Festival is low. Attention should be paid to the selling situation in March [38]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current market is in an oversupply situation, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales situation during the consumption peak season [39]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement. It is expected that large - scale enterprises will resume slaughter in the middle of the month, and the spot price may decline. The main futures contract should be shorted at high prices [39][40]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports, but the geopolitical situation in Iran has heated up again, bringing support to oil prices. Although the fundamentals show an oversupply situation, the geopolitical premium still exists [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical and macro factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand relationship has improved marginally, and the focus is on the Iranian situation and the potential substitution role of fuel oil [44]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong upward - driving force. It is recommended to adopt a shock - trading strategy and beware of回调 risks [44][45]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The short - term international macro environment and trading system may increase capital participation, but the lack of obvious supply - demand contradictions may limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - long opportunities during回调 can be considered [45]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. It is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is under pressure due to the decline of downstream products and poor high - price transactions [46][47]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, but the inventory is still relatively high, and there is a possibility of further accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and long positions in far - month contracts can be gradually considered [48]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market follows the general trend of the commodity futures market and has weak fundamentals. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range shock strategy [49]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The short - term price fluctuation of asphalt may increase due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The price of asphalt has stabilized after the increase [49][50]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the price will fluctuate with the cost. PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads can be considered. The supply - demand relationship of each product in the polyester chain shows different trends, and the overall rebound height is restricted by the terminal negative feedback [51]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the price of LPG has increased. The import cost provides support, and the demand is in the peak season. It still has some rebound momentum, but it is recommended to wait and see and not chase the rise [52][53]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the disk faces hedging pressure. However, the fundamentals are stable, and the external market price is strong, providing support for the domestic price. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the disk is expected to fluctuate [55]. 3.6.13 Urea - The coal price has increased, and the spot market trading of urea has weakened. After the price reduction, the trading of some factories is acceptable. The futures price maintains a shock trend [56].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - January 12, 2026 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 37 to close at 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 27 to close at 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 0.4% decrease [5][8]. - The external market stopped falling and stabilized. The market is waiting for the upcoming USDA report, and funds are adjusting their positions. Currently, it is expected that both yield and exports may be lowered. Pay attention to the guidance of the report. The meal market is generally oscillating, with soybean meal relatively stronger than rapeseed meal. The main reason is that the Prime Minister of Canada will visit China, and market rumors suggest that the additional tariff on rapeseed meal may be cancelled. Driven by sentiment, funds increased short positions, causing rapeseed meal to weaken. On the one hand, the arrival of soybeans has decreased month - on - month, and on the other hand, the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provides support for the near - term price of soybean meal [5][8]. - The Prime Minister of Canada is about to visit China, and rapeseed meal has weakened under the influence of sentiment. Pay attention to the progress of China - Canada trade agreements. The January USDA report in the United States is expected to show possible decreases in yield and exports, with little change in ending stocks. Funds are adjusting positions and waiting for the report. The external US soybean market has stopped falling and is oscillating. The good weather in South America continues, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest has increased. The expected decrease in domestic soybean arrivals and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand support the spot price, which is relatively firm. The auction of state - reserved imported soybeans restarted this week, cooling the market to some extent. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate in the short term [5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT March soybean contract price rose from 1047.25 to 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose from 443 to 450 dollars per ton, a 1.58% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans remained unchanged at 475 dollars per ton; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from 57.12 to 49.51 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract price rose from 2749 to 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract price fell from 2365 to 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased from 384 to 448 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China rose from 3120 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 0.64% increase; the spot price in South China rose from 3080 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 331 to 354 yuan per ton [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - In the US, for the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 87.8 tons, down from 117.8 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 2857.6 tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared to 79.2% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 47 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 689.3 tons and an unshipped volume of 570.1 tons. A private exporter reported selling 13.2 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [9]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending January 3, 2026, the soybean planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 98.2%, up from 97.9% the previous week, compared to 98.5% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 97.6%. The harvesting work has begun, with a progress of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the expected soybean export loading volume in January is 240 tons [9][10]. - According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of the week ending January 7, 2026, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 88.3%, up from 82% the previous week, compared to 97% in the same period last year [10]. - The weather forecast for South American producing areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than the average, and the precipitation process will continue, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The soil moisture in Argentine producing areas has declined, but the overall situation is still good. The cumulative precipitation in Argentine producing areas in the next two weeks will be lower than the average level. Continuously monitor the weather changes [10]. - As of the week ending January 2, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 710.25 tons, an increase of 55.81 tons from the previous week and 115.8 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 117.02 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons from the previous week and 48.66 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 579.8 tons, an increase of 198.2 tons from the previous week and 81.1 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 823.6 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week but an increase of 52.74 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week ending January 9, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 30.5417 tons, including 7.675 tons of spot trading and 22.8667 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume the previous week was 20.44 tons. The daily average pickup volume of soybean meal was 17.385 tons, compared to 18.22 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 176.58 tons, compared to 175.33 tons the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.53 days, compared to 9.4 days the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - The Safras & Mercado institution stated that factors such as oversupply in South America, the US production outlook, and geopolitical uncertainties will affect the soybean price trend in 2026. Looking forward to 2026, the soybean market will have sufficient supply, and the short - term price will face downward pressure, while the support provided by the premium of Brazilian soybeans will be relatively reduced [12]. - The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture reported that farmers' pace of selling soybeans has slowed down. As of December 31, 2025, the pre - sold volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 465 tons, compared to 337 tons in the same period last year. The sales volume of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4157 tons, compared to 3562 tons in the same period last year [12]. - The ANEC institution predicted that due to increased competition from the US, Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will drop to 77 million tons, about 10 million tons less than 87 million tons in 2025. It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will still reach a record 112 million tons, compared to about 109 million tons in 2025 [12]. - The Deral institution reported that the soybean harvest in Brazil's Parana state is still in its early stages, and preliminary results show good yields. Currently, about 4% of the soybean crops in the state have entered the maturity stage (the last stage before harvest), compared to 12% in the same period last year. Due to abnormal weather in previous months, the growth cycle of early - sown soybeans has been extended, but the yield is expected to be good. The predicted soybean output in Parana state in the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase [13]. - The Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat reported that Brazil's soybean export pace in December was significantly higher than the same period last year. From December 1 to 31, Brazil's soybean export volume was 3.383 million tons, compared to 2.006 million tons in December last year [13]. - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China from January 13 to 17, which will be the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017. This visit aims to strengthen cooperation between the two sides in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security. According to sources, as part of the consultations, Canada may suspend the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for one year. In response, China may temporarily cancel the 100% additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but trade restrictions on Canadian rapeseed will remain [13]. - The StoneX institution reported that the US Department of Agriculture has confirmed the sale of soybeans to China again, increasing the possibility of China achieving its goal of purchasing 12 million tons of soybeans. The predicted soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons, an increase of 0.2% from the December forecast of 177.2 million tons and a 5.2% increase from the previous year's output [14]. - The Cargonave institution reported that Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 reached a record 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase from 2024. The surge in Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 was mainly due to record - high production and large - scale purchases from China. Affected by the China - US trade war, Chinese buyers avoided US soybeans for most of 2025 and turned to South American soybeans [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the management fund's net position in the CBOT, the soybean meal main contract trend, the regional soybean meal spot price, the soybean meal M 5 - 9 month spread, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pickup volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [15][16][17][20][24][28][33][35][37][39][41][45][46].

其中，临漳韭菜、成安平菇、邱县鸡蛋、广平鸡蛋、马头大米等5个产品获评全国名特优新农产品；成 安县垚岸茄子、菌捷平菇、芳汀鸡蛋，大名县香全城小磨香油，涉县林溪—吉鲜鸡蛋，肥乡区社军苹 果、群利羊肚菌，武安市五泰红鸡蛋、佳美鲜鸡蛋等9个产品被认定为特质农品。 目前，我市有名特优新农产品21个，居全省第四，特质农品25个，并列全省第一，两项总数位列全省第 二。 转自：邯郸日报 本报讯 日前，农业农村部公布2025年第三批全国名特优新农产品及特质农品名录，我市共有14个农 产品入选。 （来源：邯郸日报） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, but the labor market maintained resilience. The market's risk appetite remained high, and there is a high probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in January [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. Despite regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market showed strong momentum, and there is still upward momentum in the short term [2]. - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher on Friday. The US non - farm payroll data in December was mixed, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks are favorable for precious metals, but the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index is not yet over [3]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to domestic price adjustments and the weakening of the rupee, the actual total export volume is expected to be difficult to reach the official quota [4]. - After the potential merger of Rio Tinto and Glencore, they will dominate the global copper supply. The macro - optimistic sentiment has returned, pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [5]. - The number of US oil rigs has decreased, and oil prices have maintained a rebound trend. Concerns about Iranian supply have led to an increase in risk premiums [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is discussing response plans for Iran. Trump will hear a report on Iran - related response plans on Tuesday [11]. - The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December 2025, lower than the expected 65,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, and hourly wages rose. The gold price was strong on Friday. The non - farm data was mixed, and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks made precious metals stronger, and short - term market volatility increased [12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the callback risk of precious metals in the short term [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatened Cuba to reach an agreement with the US quickly [14]. - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran, including sending a carrier strike group and launching cyber and information warfare [15]. - The non - farm data in December 2025 was below expectations. The market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate. The labor market situation is conducive to the rise of market risk appetite, and the US dollar will maintain a short - term oscillatory trend [17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will oscillate in the short term [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran [20]. - The US consumer confidence index in January reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable [21]. - The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, lower than expected. Although geopolitical risks are rising, they have not affected the risk appetite of the US stock market. The economic data is mixed, and the expectation of interest rate cuts remains restrained. It is expected that the US stock market will still operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner, but market volatility will increase [22]. - Investment advice: Expect the US stock market to experience increased volatility but maintain a bullish view [23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. The A - share market had heavy trading volume on Friday [24]. - The State Council deployed fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand. Although there are regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market is strong, and there is still upward momentum in the short term. Whether the regulatory authorities will introduce more powerful cooling measures is an important indicator [25]. - Investment advice: The long - holding strategy for stock indices is still dominant, and each index should be evenly allocated [26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan [27]. - The inflation data in December slightly exceeded market expectations. Domestic policies are actively addressing the supply - demand gap, and inflation is expected to rise. In an environment of rising inflation, the bond market is generally weak. It is not advisable to chase the high price, and short - selling hedging strategies can be considered [29]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when chasing the high price; consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on January 9. The Indonesian government plans to cut coal production by about 17.2% in 2026. The supply tightening expectation makes miners reluctant to lower prices. However, the daily consumption is not good, and it is expected that the coal price will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in January [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory state in January, and a continuous rebound is unlikely [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger [33]. - In January, the downstream steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment has increased. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 tons per week in the next two weeks [33]. - Investment advice: The raw materials are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillatory state before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to policy changes. The inventory of finished products is at a moderate level, which restricts the upward space [34]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills has rebounded to 2.295 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate have increased, while the profit rate has decreased [35]. - In 2025, China's new ship orders were 1,421, and the sales volume of excavators was 235,300. After the New Year's Day, the five major varieties of steel products began to accumulate inventory. The demand for rebar has decreased seasonally, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has remained resilient, but the inventory pressure is relatively high. The steel price trend is not clear in the short term [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices in the short term [39]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 10.3 million tons and may decrease to 10 million tons next year. As of January 7, Thailand's sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease [40]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to price and exchange - rate factors, some sugar mills are exporting at a loss. It is expected that India's actual sugar export volume will be difficult to reach the official quota. The upside of the external market is limited [42]. - Investment advice: In Guangxi, the sugar - pressing season is in full swing, and the new sugar supply is increasing. The upside of the futures market is limited. Pay attention to the actual stocking demand before the Spring Festival [43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 5.6% in 2025, but slightly missed the target [44]. - As of January 8, the national cotton processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. The US cotton export signing rate is still lagging. It is expected that the external market will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in the short term [45]. - Investment advice: Xinjiang's cotton - ginning factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The downstream textile enterprises' demand for raw materials provides support for cotton prices, but the subsequent restocking demand is not strong. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate before the Spring Festival, with limited downside. The long - term outlook remains bullish [47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons [48]. - The oil market continued to oscillate, and palm oil rebounded slightly. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The situation of the China - Canada talks is uncertain [48]. - Investment advice: The palm oil price is expected to continue an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Pay attention to the January high - frequency data and Indonesia's palm oil export tax increase news [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons. An auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans will be held on January 13 [50]. - The soybean meal futures price rose first and then fell. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly inventory report on January 12 [51]. - Investment advice: Continue to pay attention to the state reserve and customs policies. The supply - demand situation does not support a significant increase in the May contract of soybean meal unless there is a major abnormal reduction in South American production [51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger, which may create a diversified mining giant and dominate the global copper supply. Recent copper prices have soared due to supply shortages [53]. - Chile's national copper production in November decreased by 3%. The production of some major mines also changed. The macro - optimistic sentiment is pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [54]. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, continue to recommend buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, it is advisable to wait and see [56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products will be adjusted. It is expected that there will be a wave of rush - to - export in Q1 2026, but it is negative for demand in the whole year. The price of polysilicon may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in the short term [57]. - Investment advice: During the rush - to - export period, the polysilicon price may remain stable if the alliance exists. After the rush - to - export, the price may face pressure again [58]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in November 2025 was 93.7%. The supply and demand of industrial silicon need to pay attention to the demand side. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in January - February, and there may be significant inventory accumulation after March [59]. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not significant. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The export tax rebate policy for battery products will be adjusted. It is expected to lead to a short - term rush - to - export, which is beneficial to lithium carbonate. The lithium salt price is expected to continue to rise. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, but the demand is not weak [61]. - Investment advice: Hold the previous long positions, and be cautious when opening new long positions [62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lunnon Metals has obtained the final approval for the Lady Herial gold - nickel open - pit mine. The futures market shows increased competition between industrial and speculative funds. The export tax rebate policy adjustment is beneficial to short - term nickel consumption. The overall price is likely to rise, and there may be a structural shortage of intermediates [63]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips. Continue to hold the positions of selling out - of - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options. Be cautious when chasing the high price, and closely monitor the quota release [64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.39/ton. The primary lead smelting operation was oscillating, and the secondary lead refinery's inventory reached a high level. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. There is a risk of short - term price increase due to low inventory [66]. - Investment advice: Wait for opportunities to short on rallies. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage [67]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $42.57/ton. The Venezuela event may expand, and the zinc concentrate TC is expected to remain weak. The zinc demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [68]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips in the short term. Wait and see for the month - spread arbitrage. The internal - external positive arbitrage has a good risk - return ratio, but it depends on the inflow of bonded - area inventory [69]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - In 2025, Shanghai's sales volume of trade - in goods exceeded 121.2 billion yuan. The market supervision department will accelerate the formulation of relevant national standards. The global tin inventory decreased last week, and the supply is uncertain. The demand is weak, and the high price suppresses consumption [70]. - Investment advice: It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the December customs data and the recovery of the consumption side [74]. 2.16 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 9, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 89.56 euros/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The EU carbon price continued to oscillate last week. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the short - term sentiment is still cautious [75]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate strongly in the short term [76]. 2.17 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased to 409 as of January 9. Oil prices rose in the second half of last week. The market is not overly worried about Venezuela's supply disruption, but concerns about Iran's supply have increased. Geopolitical risks may lead to a short - term increase in risk premiums, but the high export volume and potential inventory accumulation may suppress oil prices [77]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the risk premium of oil prices in the short term [78].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a stark divergence, with precious metals experiencing a significant bull market while oil and black commodities faced oversupply issues [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw remarkable price increases, with gold rising over 60% and silver soaring 102% [2] - The agricultural market showed mixed results, with oilseeds benefiting from biofuel policies while grains remained subdued due to ample supply [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver emerged as the strongest sectors, driven by "de-dollarization" and interest rate cuts, leading to a substantial increase in gold purchases by central banks [2] - Central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly above pre-2022 averages [2] - The global gold ETF holdings increased by over 700 tons, reaching a total of 3932 tons, marking a record annual growth [2] Group 3: Base Metals - Copper and aluminum prices strengthened due to a balanced supply-demand dynamic, with copper prices reaching a historical high of 13,387.5 USD/ton [3] - A projected cumulative copper mine deficit of 3.13 million tons from 2026 to 2029 is anticipated due to supply instability [3] - Demand for copper related to green transition initiatives is significant, with investments in electric grids and data centers driving consumption [3] Group 4: Oil and Black Commodities - The oil market is characterized by a significant oversupply, with a daily surplus of 1.795 million barrels expected in 2025 [4] - The black commodities sector, particularly steel, is struggling, with steel mill profitability dropping from 68.4% to 36.4% [4] - Diesel markets are experiencing strength due to reduced Russian exports, despite overall oil market challenges [4] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Oilseeds are performing well, driven by increased biofuel blending ratios in Indonesia and Brazil, leading to an 8% growth in industrial consumption [4] - Other agricultural products, such as corn and soybeans, are expected to see price declines due to favorable supply conditions [4] Group 6: Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue its divergent trends into 2026, influenced by a "weak recovery and loose monetary policy" macroeconomic backdrop [6] - Strategic security, green transition, and emerging demand are identified as key structural opportunities for investment in 2026 [6] - Precious metals and core base metals are projected to maintain strong support, while the oil market is expected to remain under pressure [6][7]

（来源：工人日报） 欧盟成员国近日投票通过欧盟-南方共同市场（南共市）自由贸易协定，协定签署仪式计划于1月17日进 行。有分析人士认为，欧盟与南共市谈判多年，双方均想在全球贸易形势复杂的背景下实现抱团取暖。 然而，欧盟内部对协定始终存在反对声音，未来协定仍要经欧盟各成员国批准，这意味着协定最终落实 并给双方带来期待的利益恐怕还需要一个艰难的过程。 另外，在美国意图加强对西半球的控制之时，南共市国家希望能够增强贸易自主性，减少美国的影响。 在欧美关系出现裂痕的情况下，欧盟也希望能进一步开拓在拉美的市场。 目前，欧盟-南共市自贸协定距离正式生效还有一段距离。从欧盟方面来说，协定签署后还需要欧洲议 会和欧盟各成员国批准。从南共市来说，协定也要各成员国批准。法国农业、农食和粮食主权部部长安 妮·热纳瓦尔已经表示，"战斗"尚未结束，将争取欧洲议会否决该协定。欧洲媒体也报道称，欧洲议会 内部有相当一部分议员反对该协定。 实际上，欧盟为促使欧盟-南共市自贸协定通过，已经采取多项措施，包括强化进口管控、设立危机基 金、加强对农民的保障，必要时甚至暂停对相关农产品的优惠关税等，有些关税实现减免的过程可能持 不过，协定的达成并没 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the success of a rural community in North Liangjia Village, Qingdao, which has leveraged micro-short films to promote local agricultural products and boost tourism, achieving over 370 million views on their first production [2][5]. Group 1: Micro-Short Film Production - The first micro-short film titled "Flowers Bloom on Stone" was shot in August 2025, featuring 118 episodes filmed in just 15 days using a smartphone, leading to significant online popularity [2]. - Following the success of the initial film, the village produced additional micro-short films, each garnering over 100 million views, further establishing the village's presence in the digital space [2]. Group 2: Community Involvement and Development - Local villagers, including 64-year-old Zhao Meixia, participated in the film production, marking a shift from traditional roles to engaging in creative arts [2]. - The initiative was spearheaded by Ding Zhaoting, who transitioned from the construction industry to micro-short films, aiming to create an IP that would help sell local products [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Investment - The success of the micro-short films has attracted tourists and investors, with reports of up to 200 visitors per day and significant financial investments into local projects, including a sweet potato noodle processing factory [5]. - Initial investments started at 2 million yuan and have increased to 10 million yuan, with multiple projects planned, including sweet potato tea and pet food [5]. Group 4: Future Plans and Quality Enhancement - The village plans to continue producing micro-short films while improving production quality, transitioning from smartphones to cameras and expanding filming locations [6]. - Future content will diversify beyond rural themes to include urban interactions, relationships, and entrepreneurship, aligning with modern storytelling [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry as a whole, but it highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics, indicating potential investment opportunities based on historical percentiles [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks the valuation of A-shares as of January 9, 2026, with the overall market PE at 22.4 times and PB at 1.9 times, indicating a historical percentile of 83% and 49% respectively [1][2]. - Key sectors with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, and IT Services [1][2]. - The semiconductor market is projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in sales by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [3]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The overall market PE is 22.4x, with a historical percentile of 83% [1][2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 12x, with a historical percentile of 65% [1][2]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, with a historical percentile of 41% [1][2]. Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Real Estate - Automation Equipment - Retail - Chemical Pharmaceuticals - Electronics - IT Services [1][2]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Defense and Military - Electronics (Semiconductors) - Telecommunications [1][2]. Sector-Specific Insights New Energy - The photovoltaic industry sees a mixed trend with upstream silicon prices down by 9.4% while downstream battery prices increased by 1.3% [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.9% due to supply disruptions [1][2]. Technology (TMT) - The semiconductor index rose by 3.7%, with global sales increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [3]. - DRAM prices increased by 10.9%, indicating strong demand in the cloud services sector [3]. Real Estate Chain - Steel prices increased slightly, while cement prices remained stable [3]. - The glass market is expected to reach a weak balance due to production adjustments [3]. Consumer Goods - Pork prices decreased by 1.0%, while wholesale prices for liquor increased by 2.2% [3]. - Agricultural products showed mixed price movements, with corn prices stable and soybean prices up by 0.8% [3]. Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales increased by 19.2% year-on-year, driven by equipment upgrades and demand from mining sectors [3]. Cyclical Industries - Industrial metals saw price increases, with copper up by 4.1% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices rose by 3.7% due to geopolitical tensions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Hong Kong Local Fisheries and Agricultural Food Carnival Shandong Special Promotion event was held in Hong Kong, showcasing innovative agricultural products from Shandong, allowing Hong Kong citizens to experience the charm of Qilu culture [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured various "Lu" branded innovative agricultural products, including tea, beer, and fresh edible mushrooms, highlighting the agricultural offerings from Shandong [1][2]. - The promotion aims to serve as a "premium window" for showcasing Qilu culture and a "two-way bridge" for agricultural cooperation between Shandong and Hong Kong [2]. Group 2: Statements from Officials - Yang Wujie, Deputy Director of the Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, emphasized the long-standing agricultural cooperation between Shandong and Hong Kong, which supports Shandong's agricultural transformation and global outreach [2]. - Yu Pengchun, Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, stated that Hong Kong will leverage its advantages to promote mutual benefits and expand the brand influence of "Good Products from Shandong" in international markets [2]. - Li Cunzhi, Deputy Director of the Hong Kong SAR Government's Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department, expressed hope that the diverse products from "Good Products from Shandong" would quickly enter the Hong Kong market through this promotion [2]. Group 3: Product Offerings - Several Shandong enterprises presented innovative products during the promotion, including rare edible fungi and functional beverages, catering to the upgrading consumption needs in Hong Kong [2]. - The event was organized by the Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with various local companies and supported by the Hong Kong SAR Government [2].

Group 1 - The "Ji" brand products are gaining attention in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with a focus on high-quality agricultural products from Jilin, including deer, beef, lamb, and ginseng eggs [2][3] - A special event showcasing these products took place in Shenzhen, highlighting the cultural exchange and festive atmosphere brought by northern agricultural products [3] Group 2 - The Youth Rural Co-creation Research Program has been initiated by ten universities and research institutions to track youth engagement in rural areas, aiming to promote rural revitalization [11][12] - A typical case from Guangdong's Kaiping Town has been recognized in a national initiative to promote effective rural governance [13][14] Group 3 - The "Guangdong Year Dish Industry Alliance" was established to facilitate the entry of Guangdong's New Year dishes into the Shanghai market, indicating a strategic move to expand regional culinary influence [39][40] Group 4 - The "Mountain-Sea Connection" event in Haizhu District aims to promote local specialty products, enhancing community engagement and supporting local economies [37][38] - The "Youth Rural Plan" and various agricultural initiatives reflect a growing trend towards integrating youth into rural development and agricultural sectors [11][12]