截至2026年2月10日收盘，有色金属ETF天弘(159157)换手16.21%，成交2.39亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪的中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)上涨 0.38%，实现三连阳，成分股东阳光上涨5.52%，盛和资源上涨4.94%，厦门钨业上涨2.45%，北方稀土上涨1.38%，锡业股份上涨1.37%。 截至2月10日，有色金属ETF天弘(159157)最新规模达16.64亿元，最新份额达17.15亿份，均创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，有色金属ETF天弘(159157)近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2.69亿元净流入，合计"吸金"6.14亿元。 【产品亮点】 日前，中国有色金属工业协会相关负责人在2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上表示，2025年有色金属企业经营效益大幅提升，资产、营 收、利润规模再创新高。 具体来看，2025年，我国规模以上有色金属工业企业1.2万余家，较2020年底增加39.2%。2025年，规模以上有色金属工业企业资产总额突破6.6万亿元， 比2024年增长8.2%；实现营业收入10.2万亿元，比2024年增长13.9%；行业实现利润再创历史新高， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US December retail sales were unexpectedly flat, with the consumer pressure increasing and the overseas market risk appetite declining. The US stock market showed a differentiated decline, the US dollar index fell, and the prices of precious metals, copper, and oil weakened. Attention should be paid to the US January non - farm payroll data [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market continued to recover in a narrow range, with a weakening money - making effect and a decline in trading volume. It is still in a slow recovery process, mainly showing a shock - repair pattern with dominant structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to the January CPI [2]. - Precious metals prices are in an adjustment phase, with a possible wide - range shock in the short term. The US January non - farm payroll data should be closely watched [3][4]. - Copper prices are in a short - term shock due to factors such as the Fed's possible long - term interest rate stability and weak US consumption data. The fundamentals show a low - growth rate in the mining end, a continuous mismatch in overseas inventories, and a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle in China, so copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum trading volume has shrunk significantly, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, and aluminum ingot inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. Short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina supply is stable, and the consumer end is mainly based on long - term contracts. The overall social inventory remains high, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - The supply side of cast aluminum has more enterprises on holiday, and the downstream demand continues to shrink. The market is waiting for the guidance of US employment data, and it is expected to follow the range - bound shock [11]. - Zinc prices are under pressure and fluctuate. The US December retail sales stagnated, and the market sentiment is cautious. The domestic Spring Festival is approaching, the trading and procurement are weak, and the social inventory is seasonally accumulating. It is expected that zinc prices will remain under pressure before the festival [12][13]. - Lead prices are difficult to rebound continuously. The downstream battery enterprises are mostly on holiday, the spot procurement has basically stopped, and the inventory is expected to increase. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern before the festival [14][15]. - Tin prices' rebound momentum is weakening. The US retail data is poor, and the market trading enthusiasm has cooled. The downstream enterprises have an earlier holiday and limited inventory preparation. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in China. Attention should be paid to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [16]. - Steel prices are mainly in a shock pattern. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Before the festival, the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a shock pattern in the short term [17]. - Iron ore prices are in a shock pattern. The overseas inventory has decreased, the overseas shipping and arrival volume have decreased this week, the port inventory is at a high level, and the steel mill's inventory replenishment has ended. It is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term [18][19]. - Coking coal and coke prices are in a shock pattern. The spot market is weakly stable, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the production of the coking coal market has decreased, and the steel mills and coking enterprises have completed inventory replenishment. It is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term [20]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are in a shock pattern. The February USDA report has a neutral impact, the US biodiesel policy expectations and the expected increase in Indian soybean oil import demand have boosted the US soybean price. The oil mill's crushing rate is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term [21]. - Palm oil prices are in a shock - decline pattern. The MPOB report's bullish expectations have been realized, and the high - frequency data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil has declined in early February. It is expected to decline in a shock pattern in the short term [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US December retail sales were unexpectedly flat, with the consumer pressure increasing and the overseas market risk appetite declining. The US stock market showed a differentiated decline, the US dollar index fell, and the prices of precious metals, copper, and oil weakened. Attention should be paid to the US January non - farm payroll data [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market continued to recover in a narrow range, with a weakening money - making effect and a decline in trading volume. It is still in a slow recovery process, mainly showing a shock - repair pattern with dominant structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to the January CPI [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Prices: COMEX gold futures fell 0.62% to $5047.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.01% to $80.58 per ounce. Platinum and palladium futures prices also slightly adjusted [3]. - Factors: The Fed officials emphasized the independence of monetary policy and maintaining the current interest rate, and the market's concern about the Fed's hawkish stance eased. Speculative funds left the market, and the weak US consumption data strengthened the market's expectation of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, but it had limited support for precious metal prices. The outflow of funds from silver ETFs increased the short - term volatility of silver [3]. - Outlook: The adjustment of precious metal prices may not be over, and they may show a wide - range shock in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US January non - farm payroll data [4]. 3.3 Copper - Prices: Shanghai copper's main contract was in a narrow - range shock, and LME copper fluctuated around $13,000. The domestic near - month C structure widened, and the spot market trading improved [6]. - Factors: The Fed may maintain the interest rate for a long time, and the US inflation is still high. The weak US consumption data in December was mainly due to the contraction of low - income groups' consumption. The mining company Harmony Gold's acquisition of the Australian CSA copper mine needs capital injection and strategic re - thinking [6]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy may remain unchanged for some time, and the weak US consumption data has dampened market risk appetite. The rebound and then decline of the US dollar have boosted the metal market. The fundamentals show a low - growth rate in the mining end, a continuous mismatch in overseas inventories, and a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle in China. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - Prices: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 23,515 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME aluminum closed at $3,105 per ton, down 0.8% [8]. - Factors: The US December retail sales were unexpectedly flat, and the Fed officials believed that the policy stance was appropriate and may be close to the neutral level. The market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data, and the trading volume has shrunk significantly. The supply and demand are both weak during the Spring Festival, and the aluminum ingot inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [8][9]. - Outlook: Short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate [9]. 3.5 Alumina - Prices: The alumina futures' main contract closed at 2,835 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,646 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - Factors: The supply is stable, the consumer end is mainly based on long - term contracts, and the overall social inventory remains high. The exchange's warehouse receipts inventory has slightly increased [10]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of previously减产 enterprises and the transportation situation during the Spring Festival [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - Prices: The cast aluminum alloy futures' main contract closed at 22,040 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [11]. - Factors: More enterprises on the supply side are on holiday, the downstream demand continues to shrink, and the market is waiting for the guidance of US employment data [11]. - Outlook: It is expected to follow the range - bound shock [11]. 3.7 Zinc - Prices: Shanghai zinc's main contract was in a shock, and LME zinc was slightly stronger [12]. - Factors: The US December retail sales stagnated, the market sentiment is cautious, the domestic Spring Festival is approaching, the trading and procurement are weak, and the social inventory is seasonally accumulating. The production plan of Zijin Mining Group's zinc (lead) ore is announced, and the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine in Namibia is in progress [12][13]. - Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will remain under pressure before the festival [13]. 3.8 Lead - Prices: Shanghai lead's main contract rose first and then fell, and LME lead was in a narrow - range shock [14]. - Factors: The downstream battery enterprises are mostly on holiday, the spot procurement has basically stopped, and some secondary lead enterprises have reduced quotations due to losses [15]. - Outlook: It is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern before the festival [15]. 3.9 Tin - Prices: Shanghai tin's main contract's shock center moved slightly upward, and LME tin was in a narrow - range shock [16]. - Factors: The US retail data is poor, the market trading enthusiasm has cooled, the downstream enterprises have an earlier holiday and limited inventory preparation, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in China [16]. - Outlook: The rebound momentum is weakening, attention should be paid to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average, and light - position participation is recommended before the long holiday [16]. 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Prices: Steel futures were in a shock. The Tangshan billet price was 2,900 yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar price was 3,220 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3,240 yuan/ton [17]. - Factors: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Before the festival, the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, and the steel production has decreased [17]. - Outlook: It is expected to be mainly in a shock pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risks during the long holiday [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - Prices: Iron ore futures were in a shock. The trading volume of spot trade was 550,000 tons, the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 763 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder price was 650 yuan/ton [18]. - Factors: The overseas inventory has decreased, the overseas shipping and arrival volume have decreased this week, the port inventory is at a high level, the steel mill's inventory replenishment has ended, and the iron water production is weakly stable [18][19]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term [19]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Prices: Coking coal and coke futures were in a shock. The Shanxi main coking coal price was 1,328 yuan/ton, and the Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke price was 1,470 yuan/ton [20]. - Factors: The spot market is weakly stable, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the production of the coking coal market has decreased, and the steel mills and coking enterprises have completed inventory replenishment. The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading margin and price limit of relevant varieties [20]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term [20]. 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Prices: The soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.40% to 2,734 yuan/ton, the rapeseed meal 05 contract was flat at 2,244 yuan/ton, and the CBOT US soybean 3 - month contract rose 13.5 to 1,123.5 cents per bushel [21]. - Factors: The February USDA report has a neutral impact, the US biodiesel policy expectations and the expected increase in Indian soybean oil import demand have boosted the US soybean price. The oil mill's crushing rate is gradually decreasing [21]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term [21]. 3.14 Palm Oil - Prices: The palm oil 05 contract fell 0.69% to 8,940 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract fell 0.30% to 8,098 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 0.61% to 9,096 yuan/ton [22]. - Factors: The MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in January decreased, the export increased, and the production decreased. The high - frequency data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil has declined in early February [22][23]. - Outlook: It is expected to decline in a shock pattern in the short term [23].

Group 1 - The market experienced narrow fluctuations on February 10, with mixed performance across the three major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37% [1] - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059.CSI) closed up by 0.38%, with leading stocks including Dongyangguang, Shenghe Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten [1] - The Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) recorded a trading volume of nearly 240 million yuan, with a net subscription of nearly 20 million units throughout the day [1] Group 2 - By 2025, there will be over 12,000 large-scale nonferrous metal industrial enterprises in China, an increase of 39.2% compared to the end of 2020. The total assets of these enterprises are expected to exceed 6.6 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% from 2024 [2] - The industry is projected to achieve operating revenue of 10.2 trillion yuan by 2025, representing a 13.9% increase from 2024, with total profits reaching a historical high of 528.45 billion yuan, up by 25.6% from 2024 [2] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that the industrial nonferrous sector will continue its upward cycle in 2026, driven by a reshaped supply-demand landscape and policy benefits [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF, which has seen significant inflows and growth in assets since its launch [1][3] - The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159157) has recorded a cumulative net inflow of 424 million yuan since its inception, with the latest fund size reaching 1.468 billion yuan, marking a new high [1] - The index tracked by the Tianhong ETF allocates over 10% to the rare earth sector, which is considered a strategic resource for the country, indicating its growing importance in the context of US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that the Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, while US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded at its fastest pace since 2022, boosting demand expectations for industrial metals [2] - The announcement of a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals by Trump has further strengthened market premium expectations for copper and other strategic resources [2] - Long-term demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be driven by AI computing center construction and global grid investments, despite short-term market fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - Spot gold reached $5050 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.54% [1] - Spot silver saw a daily increase of 1%, reaching $81.54 per ounce [1] - The gains for both gold and silver narrowed later in the day [1] Group 2 - MSCI announced its quarterly index adjustments effective after the market close on February 27, 2026 [1] - Notable additions to the MSCI China Index include 37 stocks such as Liou Co., Silver Holdings, Anji Technology, and Pony.ai [1] - The index will remove 16 stocks, including Fosun International, Great Wall Motors, and Vanke Enterprises [1]

2月10日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布的数据显示，1月份中国产铜在LME可用库存中的占比下降，原因是来自其他亚洲国家、南美和非洲的铜 流入。 LME可用铜库存量已达到2025年2月底以来的最高水平，该交易所已成为寻求在美国和亚洲储存金属的交易商的首选场所。 数据显示，截至上月底，LME仓库中中国产铜的占比为70%，低于12月份的79%。 从绝对值来看，LME仓库中中国产铜库存从12月份的87,475吨增至上月底的95,150吨。 然而，来自智利、秘鲁、印度、韩国和刚果民主共和国的共计18,400吨铜流入LME仓库，稀释了中国产铜的占比。 俄罗斯产铜占可用库存的9%，即12,600吨。 liumingkang@smm.cn 1月份，LME仓库中俄罗斯产铝的可用库存占比维持在58%，而印度产铝的占比下降3个百分点至36%。 从绝对值来看，俄罗斯产铝的库存减少2,350吨，至255,075吨；印度产铝库存减少19,950吨，至156,725吨。 为遵守美国和英国因俄乌冲突而对俄罗斯实施的制裁，自2024年4月13日起，LME已禁止在其仓库系统中存放俄罗斯产金属。 在此日期之前生产的金属仍可交易，但许多交易 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储再度强调独立性，中国央行继续适度 宽松 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-11 宏观策略（股指期货） 《求是》发文加快培育未来产业 A 股缩量窄幅震荡，科技股依然领先。港股近期止跌回升，或迎 来右侧配置机会。总体看国内权益风险可控，春季躁动可期。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储洛根：货币政策独立性是根本 综 金价震荡收跌，白银走弱。节前资金逐渐减仓流出贵金属，美 联储官员讲话捍卫独立性，叠加货币政策短期步入观望阶段， 缺乏增量刺激。美国 1 月零售销售数据意外走弱。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行发布 2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告 报 市场消息面较为平静，股市波动不大，资金面略显收敛，国债 期货窄幅震荡。短期市场存在上涨动力，不过追涨性价比不高， 待市场上涨动力趋缓后关注做空机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 16 家车企公布 1 月产销数据，12 家销量同比增长 钢价延续弱势震荡，节前基本面压力加大，各品种累库压力上 升，加上订单情况一般，市场情绪疲弱，均对钢价形成压制。 但市场谨慎情绪也降低了节后风险，关注是否有低估机会。 农产品（棉花） 棉纱产销 ...

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 行业研究 春节假期临近，关注节后需求——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 2 日至 2 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 4 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债保持零发行，公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额增加，短期融资 券发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，短期融资券净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债 净融资额为负，其余品种 ...

Group 1: Macro Environment and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday will see the domestic futures market enter a trading halt, while overseas markets will continue to operate, with macro data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations potentially impacting the domestic market post-holiday [1] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant overseas economic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties necessitate careful position management and risk hedging [1] - Key macro data to watch includes the U.S. retail sales data on February 17, preliminary PMI values for Europe and the U.S. on February 20, and the U.S. Q4 GDP data also on February 20 [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments since February, primarily due to a significant drop in precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets, leading to a general downward pressure on non-ferrous metals ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - If military actions are taken by the U.S. against Iran, it could escalate conflicts in the Middle East, potentially disrupting aluminum supply, as the Gulf region accounts for about 8% of global electrolytic aluminum production [2] - Mid-term outlook remains optimistic for non-ferrous metals, driven by continued Fed rate cuts and global fiscal expansion, which are expected to support manufacturing and increase demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and tin [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Precious metals are currently in a volatile phase, with prices having declined significantly but showing some stabilization; the market sentiment remains bullish on gold in the medium term [4] - The CFTC's net long positions in silver have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating that short-term selling pressure has been largely released, while gold may have formed a temporary bottom [4] - Analysts recommend holding positions in gold during the holiday to minimize trading costs, while silver and platinum may require lighter positions or options for risk hedging due to their higher volatility [4] Group 4: Crude Oil - The crude oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, which will dictate price movements; a breakdown in talks could lead to significant price increases [6] - Current oil prices already reflect some geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate further, prices may enter a recovery phase [6] - Analysts suggest maintaining caution in trading strategies, utilizing options or spread trading to manage price volatility during the holiday period [6]

Group 1: Market Insights from Jim Rogers - Jim Rogers has liquidated all his U.S. stock holdings and is focusing on physical commodities like gold, silver, and copper as a "perfect insurance policy" for potential crises [1][2] - He emphasizes the importance of holding gold and silver, stating they will serve as a crucial refuge in times of crisis and can also provide significant returns if the market conditions are favorable [1] - Rogers highlights the increasing demand for copper across various industries, particularly in electric vehicles and electronics, while noting the limited new copper mines being developed globally [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Ahead of Chinese New Year - As the Chinese New Year approaches, the domestic futures market will enter a holiday period while overseas markets continue trading, with macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions likely influencing market conditions [3] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant macroeconomic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties require careful position management and risk hedging [3] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments, with pressures from falling precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets leading to a general pullback [4] - There is a potential risk of supply disruptions in the aluminum market due to possible military actions in the Middle East, which could significantly impact global aluminum supply [4] - The long-term outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, driven by continued demand from AI infrastructure investments and global manufacturing support [4][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Price Volatility - Precious metals are currently experiencing price volatility, with a notable decline in prices but a decrease in volatility levels, indicating a potential stabilization phase [7] - Market sentiment remains bullish on gold's mid-term prospects, while silver and platinum are more volatile due to their industrial applications [7] - The recent decline in precious metal prices is viewed as a stress test for future liquidity tightening risks, with gold still holding significant long-term investment value [7] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could significantly affect oil prices [8] - Current oil prices reflect a certain level of geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate, prices may enter a recovery phase [8] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations are also critical, as any progress or setbacks could impact oil price volatility [8]