研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据采源:SMM W | 2025-10-22 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-16 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121270.00 | 121150.00 | 121120.00 | 30.00 | 2 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 121380.00 | 121380.00 | 121420.00 | 0.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 121570.00 | 121560.00 | 10.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121660.00 | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 121790.00 | 121710.00 | 121900.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupplied pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless - steel market has weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, so it is expected to remain in range - bound oscillations [3][5]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,100 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a 0.19% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 93,921 (+20,070) lots, and the open interest was 127,005 (+5,694) lots. The main contract showed a volatile pattern of opening low and closing high, with a fluctuation range of only 0.44%. Supported by the expectation of loose liquidity and strong new - energy demand, along with the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the price oscillated upward [1]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and prices are stable. There is a certain price difference between supply and demand in the domestic market. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipments are coming to an end. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories have recently been purchasing raw materials [2]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand increased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,881 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 250,854 (-24) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventories and oversupply, it is expected that nickel prices will remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless - Steel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,385 (+52,175) lots, and the open interest was 166,411 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong nickel price, the main contract showed a volatile and strong trend with increasing volume and price, but there was a short - term oversold rebound. The continuous reduction of open interest in the main contract for 5 days reflects strong risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and the market doubts the sustainability of the rebound [3]. Spot - The driving effect of futures on spot is not obvious, and actual trading remains light. Spot prices remain low. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 934.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12765 | 55 11-12月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -20 | 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -8406 | 2293 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 166411 | -13119 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 74376 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9250 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 785 | 0 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.17 | -0.03 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 28570.87 | 4144.03 进口数量:镍铁(月,万吨) | 108 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals released on October 22, 2025, covering various non - ferrous metals such as copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For copper, the macro - level risk aversion cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, the terminal consumption is weak, and the strategy is to go long on dips cautiously [4][6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the price may rebound after the short - position reduction, with a focus on the implementation of the production - reduction expectation [15][16]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro logic is the main driving factor, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [22][23]. - For casting aluminum alloy, the macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [31][32]. - For zinc, the overseas low - inventory situation supports the LME price, and the domestic price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and go short on rallies [37][40]. - For lead, the downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions and add short on rallies [44]. - For nickel, the macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range [50][51]. - For stainless steel, the price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57][58]. - For tin, the Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the price may oscillate around the integer mark [63][65]. - For industrial silicon, it is weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction [70]. - For polycrystalline silicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [75][78]. - For lithium carbonate, the inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price oscillates strongly [83][84]. Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 85,420 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the index position decreased by 3,950 lots to 532,700 lots. The spot price had different changes in different regions [2][3]. - **Important Information**: European leaders supported a cease - fire, China's import of anode copper decreased in September 2025, and the import of scrap copper ingots increased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk - aversion sentiment cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, and the terminal consumption is weak [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and be cautious about chasing highs; hold the inter - market positive spread and arrange the inter - period positive spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline; wait and see for options [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 34 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 7,177 lots to 468,900 lots. The spot price decreased in different regions [9]. - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises tendered for alumina, some alumina enterprises carried out maintenance or production reduction, and China's alumina import and export data changed in September 2025 [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the production - reduction scale is expected to expand in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounds from the low due to the supply inflection point in the short term; wait and see for spreads and options [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 21,045 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 25,548 lots to 517,200 lots. The spot price rose in some regions [19]. - **Related Information**: The Russia - US meeting was in a deadlock, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and some overseas aluminum plants had production - reduction situations [19][20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro logic is the main driving factor, and overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads and options [23][24][25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 20,515 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions and rose slightly in the southwest [27]. - **Related Information**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data of un - wrought aluminum alloy changed in September 2025 [28][30]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is restricted by high social inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips with the aluminum price, and the medium - term strong - oscillation trend remains unchanged; wait and see for spreads and options [32][33]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.18% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 299 lots to 229,800 lots. The spot trading was weak [35]. - **Related Information**: The LME zinc market had a rare spot shortage on October 21 [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic price is under pressure, the overseas price is supported, and the export window is open [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; wait and see for spreads and options [40]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.03% to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,744 lots to 88,600 lots. The electrolytic lead supply was scarce [42]. - **Related Information**: Environmental protection measures affected the transportation in Hebei, and a small - scale regenerative lead smelter adjusted its production strategy [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the short position and add short on rallies; wait and see for spreads and options [44]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 130 to 121,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 660 lots. The spot premium had different changes [46][47][49]. - **Important Information**: China's nickel - sulfur and wet - process intermediate imports increased in September 2025 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range; wait and see for spreads; sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [51][52][53]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 45 to 12,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 10,286 lots. The spot price had a certain range [55]. - **Important Information**: Some stainless - steel enterprises in Taiwan applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term driven by news; buy ss2512 and sell ss2602 for spreads [58][59]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract Shanghai tin 2511 closed at 281,680 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton or 0.37%, and the position increased by 624 lots to 65,148 lots [61]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US and China - EU trade issues were involved, and the US president's remarks on Taiwan were responded to [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the demand recovers slowly [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate around the integer mark; wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is bearish in November, and the price is under short - term pressure but has support [69]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction; no suggestion for spreads and options [70][71][72]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance sheet will improve, and the short - term callback space is limited [75]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips; hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range; adjust the option strategy [78][79][80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1,240 to 77,120 yuan/ton, the index position increased by 41,864 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 873 to 29,019 tons. The spot price increased [82]. - **Important Information**: CATL's commercial - vehicle battery and energy - storage business grew [83]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, reflecting strong demand, and the price oscillates strongly [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [4]. - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand growth, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.36% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 60,391 (- 8,453) lots, and the open interest was 50,388 (+ 2,520) lots. The main contract was about to change, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and China's strong economic resilience in Q3 were the main reasons for the strong performance of the metal sector [2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The 1.4% nickel - ore tender of the Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at CIF43. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area was decreasing, and northern mines were mostly tendering for shipment. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they maintained cautious procurement. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel - ore market remained in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season in local mining areas and production preparations for next year, Indonesian factories started raw - material procurement [3]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,900 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained unchanged at 2,450 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 27,026 (+ 158) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (0) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel (2512) opened at 12,600 yuan/ton and closed at 12,665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,078 (+ 1,298) lots, and the open interest was 188,332 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel and the metal sector, the main contract of stainless steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The price center shifted slightly upward compared with the previous few trading days but did not break through the key resistance level. The trading volume increased moderately compared with the previous day, but short - term capital inflow was limited, and the rebound lacked real momentum [4]. - **Spot**: Downstream inquiries increased, and quotes rose slightly, but actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, and the overall trading situation improved slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 355 and 655 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 936.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - For electrolytic nickel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, with an expected trading range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Given a loose fundamental situation, high inventory pressure, and low valuation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies, with an expected trading range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Due to weak fundamentals and declining cost support, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][122]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.89%. Trading volume reached 486,300 lots (+196,400), and open interest was 60,500 lots (-17,300). LME nickel dropped 1.11% weekly, with trading volume at 34,600 lots (-6,400) [12]. - The basis premium was 1,240 yuan/ton [14]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, as did the shipping price from the Philippines to China [21]. - In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease but a 33.9% YoY increase [26]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 707,000 tons MoM, and port inventories rose by 30,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 14 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel narrowed [33]. - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, up 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY. Imports are expected to decline in October [36]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate rose. RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [40]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those in Indonesia increased [44]. - Nickel pig iron inventories decreased [46]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [50]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel decreased [54]. - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, and exports decreased [58]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [63][111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, while imports rose by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY. October's import and export volumes are expected to be similar to September's [67][114]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel declined, while that of nickel sulfate increased, widening the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is minimal [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors increased by 16.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, and those of ternary materials rose by 4.3% MoM and 33.7% YoY [77]. - In October, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 5.1% MoM and 24.3% YoY [79]. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, up 16.3% MoM and 23.7% YoY; sales were 1.604 million units, up 15.0% MoM and 24.6% YoY [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventories and LME nickel inventories increased [86]. - Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventories remained unchanged, while the six - region social total inventory increased by 4,014 tons [91]. 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from purchased nickel sulfate increased, while that from purchased nickel matte and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte integrated production [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Wait and see. Expected trading range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Loose fundamentals, high inventory pressure, and low valuation suggest low - level price fluctuations [95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures trended downward, with a weekly decline of 1.64%. The basis shrank to 970 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 716,700 lots (+557,400), and open interest was 197,700 lots (+144,300) [98]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support [102]. - Losses in the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel expanded [107]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. October's volumes are expected to be similar to September's [114]. 2.4 Inventory Side - Stainless Steel - Total domestic stainless steel social inventories decreased. 200 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased, while 300 - series inventories increased [120]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies. Expected trading range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Weak fundamentals, loose cost support, and inventory patterns suggest weak price oscillations [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3] - With increasing production schedules and slower - than - expected demand recovery, stainless steel prices are forecasted to stay in a weak oscillation, but recent policy guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the results of China - US trade talks need to be observed [5] Market Analysis of Nickel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 120,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 68,844 (- 7,491) lots, and the open interest was 58,658 (- 1,803) lots [1] Influence of Macro Data - China's macro data for the first three quarters showed that the GDP in Q3 was 3.545 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% (previous value: 5.2%), and other data indicated a situation of "strong supply and weak demand", causing Shanghai nickel prices to oscillate weakly [1] Nickel Ore Situation - The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The Eramen mine in the Philippines launched a new tender. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area decreased, while northern mines started to load and ship. Downstream iron plants, with reduced profits, were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remained abundant. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with a premium range of + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season, Indonesian factories had low enthusiasm for raw material procurement despite production pressure [1] Spot Market - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,868 (- 174) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (- 54) tons [2] Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,595 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,780 (+ 7,866) lots, and the open interest was 198,194 (- 4,171) lots [3] Influence of Macro Data - The real estate investment growth rate widened by 1 percentage point to - 13.9%, and the overall industry was still at the bottom - building stage. The recovery of stainless steel demand remained a long - term task [3] Spot Market - The market trading continued the light situation of the previous week, and prices remained basically stable. Under the pressure of sales, there were occasional lower quotes. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 390 - 690 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Neutral - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with contradictions still accumulating. Stainless steel has no obvious upward drive in the supply - demand situation, but cost limits the downside space. Industrial silicon's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and for polysilicon, the policy logic remains, with attention on the implementation node. Lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly due to the significant reduction of futures warehouse receipts [2][5][6][29][34][35][67][69]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel Fundamentals**: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic is intense. Refined nickel has marginal supply increase and weak demand, but the substitution of nickel - iron for nickel - plate in the alloy end and the uncertainty of Indonesian nickel ore policies affect the price. The short - term price has support at the bottom while inventory is accumulating at a high level [5]. - **Stainless Steel Fundamentals**: In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand double - weak thinking. In the short - term, there is a lack of upward drive in the fundamentals, but cost limits the downside space. The 10 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the cumulative surplus has converged compared to previous years [6]. - **Inventory Tracking**: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased, LME nickel inventory also increased. For stainless steel, the upstream inventory is high, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [9]. - **Market News**: There are events such as Indonesia's sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB policies, and potential tariff increases by the US, which all have an impact on the market [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price declined. The polysilicon futures price was strongly volatile, and the spot price was stable [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase in October, and the southwest region may reduce production in the future. The demand from downstream sectors has different trends, and overall, the industry inventory is accumulating. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in October and then decrease, and the demand from the silicon - wafer end is expected to be strong in October and may change later. The 10 - month supply - demand will accumulate inventory, and the inventory accumulation will slow down from November to December [30][31][34][35]. - **Trading Suggestions**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high prices, with the expected next - week futures price range of 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the expected next - week futures price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price strengthened, while the spot price declined slightly. The basis and the spread between different contracts also changed [67]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The futures warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate decreased significantly, indicating strong demand in the spot market. The production reached a new high, and the demand is expected to be optimistic until November, but the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage needs attention [68]. - **Trading Suggestions**: It is recommended to be bullish but not chase the price in the single - side trading. For inter - period trading, positive spreads are recommended. For hedging, option hedging is suggested [69].