每经AI快讯，当地时间2月12日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨1.11%报1136.50美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.88%报431.25美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨2.75%报 552.00美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 12 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Price Information Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2962, 2790, and 2898 respectively, with increases of 12, 17, and 10. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao are 380, 270, 280, and 290 respectively [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2263, 2303, and 2349 respectively, with increases of 10, 15, and 19. Spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi are 227, 147, and 37 respectively [3]. Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 172 (down 5 from yesterday), 59 - spread is -108 (up 7), and 91 - spread is -64 (down 2) [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is -40 (down 5 from yesterday), 59 - spread is -46 (down 4), and 91 - spread is 86 (up 9) [3]. Cross - Variety Spreads - The current soybean - rapeseed 01 spread is 699, and 09 spread is 549. The current oil - meal ratio 01 is 2.710 [3]. Spot Spreads - The current soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 540 (down 13 from yesterday), rapeseed meal - sunflower meal spread is 210 (up 10), and soybean meal - sunflower meal spread is 820 (up 17) [3]. Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date, with significant changes compared to the previous day, e.g., for April shipment, the change in pressing profit is -35.02 [8]. Group 3: Market Conditions International - The US soybean market is bullish, mainly due to improved exports. The monthly supply - demand report's bearish impact is limited. The South American market is firm, less affected by the US soybean increase. The international soybean market is relatively loose in supply, with price pressure still existing [3][4]. Domestic - The domestic soybean meal market is bullish, driven by short - covering. The rapeseed meal market is also bullish, with significant position - reducing and price increases. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is narrowing [3]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International - US soybean carry - over stocks remain at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations. South American supply is increasing, with Brazil's new crop growing well and harvest progressing smoothly. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, with increased pressing and exports [4]. Domestic - As of February 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.484 million tons, with an operating rate of 68.33%. Soybean inventory is 5.6704 million tons, down 10.77% from last week. Rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are low, with supply pressure still existing [5]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The US soybean is bullish due to macro - factors, but high - price export sustainability is limited. International market uncertainty lies in weather. The domestic soybean meal market is bullish, but supply uncertainty remains. The rapeseed meal market is also bullish, affected by soybean meal and position - reducing. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread will be volatile [6]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold off on trading. - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading. - Options: Mainly use the strategy of selling wide straddles. [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The 25/26 global cotton supply-demand pattern is loose, with slow US cotton export sign - up. The short - term ICE US cotton will likely remain low - level volatile, and the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited. In China, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced. There may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range [1] - **Sugar**: The 25/26 global sugar market is in a surplus pattern, and the raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation. The long - term supply has potential positive factors. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Key Data - **Cotton**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.61%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,756 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 90%, 22 percentage points higher than the previous week and faster than last year's 80%. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55% [1] - **Sugar**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.23%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan, was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.41 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.308 million short tons of cane sugar. The sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 15.9% [3] - **Pulp**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,236 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.65%). The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,885 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening [5] Group 4: Market Analysis - **Cotton**: Internationally, the short - term ICE US cotton will remain low - level volatile, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be tight inventory at the end of the year. The key factors to watch are the reduction of planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation in the short - to - medium - term, and there are potential positive factors in the long - term. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure will ease, and the demand is expected to improve. However, the port inventory is high, and the overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [5] Group 5: Strategies - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch are the reduction of new - year planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1][2] - **Sugar**: Adopt an idea of bottom - building through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term. Key factors to watch are the macro situation and domestic import sugar control policies [5] - **Pulp**: The short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation. The overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [2][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the good weather in Brazil and the expected record - high soybean production will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices. With feed enterprises' procurement basically completed, oil mills' soybean meal and soybean inventories are high, so the soybean meal price will fluctuate. Future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazil's harvest [1][2] - For corn, last season's low corn imports led to significant depletion of channel inventories. Although there was a good harvest in Northeast China this season, affected by floods in North China and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply is not loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot trading, imports, and grain auctions [3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2773 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton or 1.43% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2288 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.96% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3060 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil's February soybean exports are expected to be 11.71 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.93 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 180 million tons and exports at 114 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2316 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 1.31%; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2571 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.94% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The US Department of Agriculture estimated the US 2025/26 corn planting area at 98.8 million acres, harvest area at 91.3 million acres, yield per acre at 186.5 bushels, production at 17.021 billion bushels, exports at 3.3 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels. Brazil's 2025/26 corn production is estimated at 131 million tons, and exports at 43 million tons [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - For soybean meal, Brazil's good weather and expected high - yield soybean production will suppress US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices. With sufficient domestic supply, the soybean meal price will fluctuate, and future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazil's harvest [2] - For corn, due to last season's low imports and this season's flood in North China, and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply is not loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot trading, imports, and grain auctions [5] 3.3 Strategy - The investment strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [2][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit and vegetable futures markets have complex supply - demand situations and price trends, with different trading strategies recommended for each variety [3][6][7]. - For sugar, the international supply surplus and domestic sufficient supply may lead to a downward price trend, and the SR2605 contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [3]. - Pulp is in a state of general fundamentals and low valuation, and the price has support but needs supply - side reduction news to strengthen. The 2605 contract is recommended to reduce short positions on dips and wait and see [3][4]. - Double - offset paper has weak cost support, and the spot price is stable. The 2605 contract is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [5]. - Cotton has a supply - abundant situation, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The 05 contract long positions are recommended to be reduced [6]. - Apples have supply - side support, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [7]. - For jujubes, the 2605 contract is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and protective put options can be bought for long positions. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, with short - term oscillatory trends | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expected production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Wait and see | The overall supply is relatively sufficient | 5070 - 5100 | 5320 - 5350 | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly long - allocate | The downstream is in the off - season, and pulp lacks new positive factors. There may be cost support for warehouse receipts | 5130 - 5200 | 5360 - 5400 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to the support after the basis widens | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 | | Cotton 2605 | Reduce long positions | The long - term positive expectations remain, but the external price decline restricts the domestic price, and the short - term price may fluctuate | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 563,510 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. In the sales area, the recent arrival volume has increased significantly, and the overall sales situation is okay with stable prices [17][18][19]. 3.2.2 Sugar Market - The USDA's February report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 season is 9.41 million short tons, with a sugar inventory/consumption ratio of 15.9%. As of mid - January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons [20]. - As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [20]. 3.2.3 Pulp Market The Chinese pulp market continues to weaken due to falling futures prices and weakening demand for key resale varieties. The spot price of imported NBSK has declined, and the inventory in major ports has increased [24]. 3.2.4 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The industry's overall inventory reduction speed decreased. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase [25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - In January, Vietnam's cotton imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 17.8%. The main import sources were the US, Brazil, and Australia [26]. - As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, advanced by 22 percentage points to 90%, faster than the same period last year. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55%, slightly faster than the previous year [26]. - In January 2026, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 3.615 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35% and a month - on - month increase of 11.77% [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9601 | 101 | 1.06% | | Jujube 2605 | 8895 | 225 | 2.60% | | Sugar 2605 | 5266 | - 12 | - 0.23% | | Pulp 2605 | 5236 | 34 | 0.65% | | Cotton 2605 | 14745 | 90 | 0.61% | [27] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 670 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5300 | 0 | - 1400 | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16029 | 41 | 1204 | [32] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. [46][47][49] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1343 | 57 | 2046 | Oscillating strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 205 | 45 | 215 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 9 | 1 | - 140 | Oscillating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 80 | 35 | 85 | Oscillating weakly | Sell on rallies | [52] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts showing the top 20 long and short positions and trading volume changes of each variety are mentioned [59][63][69]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3673 | 127 | - 399 | | Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9526 | | Pulp | 146427 | 0 | - 198876 | | Cotton | 10746 | 60 | 4016 | [84] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned [87][94][99].

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美国农业部 2 月报告虽上调巴西大豆产量至 1.8 亿吨，但对美豆供需数据未作调整，报告符合 市场预期。美豆走强实源于双重外部预期，一是市场持续交易中国可能额外采购美国大豆的预期，二是美 国政府 3 月初将确定的 2026 年生物燃料强制掺混配额政策，提振豆油及大豆需求前景。国内市场节前备 货结束，下游采购意愿低迷，油厂陆续停机致合同量收紧、部分压车，为豆粕现货提供阶段性支撑，但整 体购销情绪偏淡，且油厂库存偏高、供应宽松格局未改；菜粕受加菜籽进口传闻、澳菜籽压榨 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global corn supply pressure has weakened, but the U.S. corn is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short term. After the Spring Festival, corn may decline slightly, and the short - term upward space of the 05 corn contract on the futures market is limited [4][6]. - The price of starch mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The 05 starch contract has risen following corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [7]. - The U.S. corn supply pressure has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The corn spot in North China is strong, and the 03 corn contract may decline [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data Futures Market - For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2285, 2316, and 2331 respectively, with price increases of 21, 30, and 23, and price increase rates of 0.92%, 1.30%, and 0.99%. The trading volume of C2601 is 507 with an increase rate of 85.04%, C2605 is 790,787 with an increase rate of 103.56%, and C2509 is 31,530 with an increase rate of 188.97%. The open interest of C2601 is 3,527 with an increase rate of 2.29%, C2605 is 1,174,673 with an increase rate of 20.50%, and C2509 is 88,438 with an increase rate of 21.04% [2]. - For starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2620, 2637, and 2658 respectively, with price increases of 20, 29, and 18, and price increase rates of 0.76%, 1.10%, and 0.68%. The trading volume of CS2601 is 8 with a decrease rate of 42.86%, CS2605 is 59,825 with an increase rate of 34.94%, and CS2509 is 1,189 with a decrease rate of 55.13%. The open interest of CS2601 is 80 with an increase rate of 0.00%, CS2605 is 148,017 with an increase rate of 9.78%, and CS2509 is 8,298 with a decrease rate of 0.11% [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang is 2135 yuan, Songyuan Jiajie is 2190 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2362 yuan, Shouguang is 2346 yuan, Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan, Nantong Port is 2410 yuan, and Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan. The price in Shouguang has increased by 10 yuan, while others are stable. The basis in different regions ranges from - 196 to 119 [2]. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng is 2730 yuan, COFCO is 2700 yuan, Yihai (Heilongjiang) is 2700 yuan, Yufeng is 2830 yuan, Jinyu is 2820 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2920 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade is 2780 yuan. All prices are stable. The basis in different regions ranges from 63 to 283 [2]. Spread - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 is - 31 with a decrease of 9, C05 - C09 is - 15 with an increase of 7, C09 - C01 is 46 with an increase of 2 [2]. - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 17 with a decrease of 9, CS05 - CS09 is - 21 with an increase of 11, CS09 - CS01 is 38 with a decrease of 2 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 327 with a decrease of 5, CS01 - C01 is 335 with a decrease of 1, CS05 - C05 is 321 with a decrease of 1 [2]. 2. Market Judgment Corn - U.S. corn prices are oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July being 2201 yuan. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable at around 2330 yuan, and the northeast and north China corn spot prices are stable. The price difference between north China and northeast corn has widened. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and corn is still cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprises' inventory has increased. The 05 contract has increased in positions and broken through the previous high, but the short - term upward space is limited, and there may be a slight decline after the Spring Festival [4][6]. Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the Shandong corn spot price is strong. The starch price in Shandong is around 2780 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 102.5 million tons, an increase of 3.0 million tons from last week, with a monthly decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is starting to weaken but is still higher than last year. The 05 starch contract has risen following corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [7]. 3. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The 03 U.S. corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. All long positions in the 07 and 05 corn contracts should be liquidated [9]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the price is low [9]. 4. Corn Options - Option strategy: Short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [10]. 5. Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures showing the northern port's corn flat - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread over different time periods [14][15][19]

糖价内强外弱，郑棉延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14655元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨，幅度+0.51%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15713元/吨，较前一日变动+24元/吨，现货基差CF05+1058，较前一日变动-51；3128B棉全国均价15988元/吨， 较前一日变动+21元/吨，现货基差CF05+1333，较前一日变动-54。 近期市场资讯，据棉花信息网生产调查，2026年全国棉花意向种植面积同比减少82.7万亩，减幅1.7%。根据近三年 各省平均单产情况，推算全国棉花总产同比减少45.2万吨，减幅5.8%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，美棉出口签约进度仍偏慢，终端需求 受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响，整体表现疲软，短期ICE美棉预计仍将维持低位震荡。中长期看，美棉已 处于低估值区间，进一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不明确，后续需持续关注新季供应方面的题材。国 内方面，25/26年度国内棉花延续大幅增产，不过商业库存增幅远不及产量增幅。受减面积预期支撑，贸易商近期 持货意愿较强，现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The price of corn futures stopped falling and rose on Tuesday due to the increase in soybean prices. Before the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the corn market was low, with prices remaining stable in the Northeast. The price of corn in the selling area adjusted slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the corn price will maintain a narrow - range shock pattern, with a low possibility of significant fluctuations. The view is "oscillating weakly" [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed higher, and soybean oil futures reached a new high. The February supply - demand report was bearish, but the market was optimistic about the demand for US soybean oil after the US - India agreement. In the domestic market, soybean meal was mainly oscillating, with light trading. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell, following the decline in the surrounding market. The MPOB report was bullish, but the high - frequency data showed a decline in palm oil exports in February. In the domestic market, the oils and fats market was divided, with palm oil being weak. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures oscillated. The spot price of eggs continued to decline, and the futures price stabilized after falling to a low level. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Pigs**: On Tuesday, hog futures continued to be weak. Before the Spring Festival, the supply of hogs was sufficient, and the spot price continued to decline. In the long - term, the trend of hog production capacity reduction remained unchanged. The view is "oscillating" [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: Affected by the rise in soybean prices, the corn futures price stopped falling and rose on Tuesday. Before the Spring Festival, the 3 - month contract positions were transferred to the 5 - month contract. The spot market was waiting for the guidance of the futures market. The trading in the Northeast corn market was basically over, and the price was stable. The deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast stopped purchasing during the Spring Festival. The price in the selling area adjusted slightly, and downstream feed enterprises were cautious. The price will maintain a narrow - range shock before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans closed higher on Tuesday, and soybean oil futures reached a new high. The February supply - demand report was bearish, but the market was optimistic about the demand for US soybean oil. In the domestic market, the import cost increased, but the supply was sufficient, and the inventory pressure increased. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and exit the 5 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday, following the decline in the surrounding market. The MPOB report was bullish, but the high - frequency data showed a decline in palm oil exports in February. In the domestic market, the oils and fats market was divided, with palm oil being weak. The strong rise of precious metals and the improvement of the commodity atmosphere drove up the price of oils and fats, but the loose supply and weak demand limited the increase. The operation should be short - term [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated on Tuesday. The spot price of eggs continued to decline, and the futures price stabilized after falling to a low level. As the spot price declined, if the breeding profit continued to decline, it would be beneficial to the reduction of production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in the willingness of the breeding end to eliminate and replenish [1]. - **Pigs**: Hog futures continued to be weak on Tuesday. Before the Spring Festival, the supply of hogs was sufficient, and the spot price continued to decline. In the long - term, the trend of hog production capacity reduction remained unchanged. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the production capacity reduction progress on the forward contracts [1][2] Market Information - On February 9, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 129.51, down 0.25 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 132.33, down 0.29 points from last Friday. As of 14:00 on the day, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last Friday; beef was 66.08 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from last Friday; mutton was 64.51 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from last Friday; eggs were 8.39 yuan/kg, down 1.4% from last Friday; white - striped chicken was 17.18 yuan/kg, down 1.3% from last Friday [3]. - Many soybean crushing plants began to shut down for the Spring Festival holiday from last Friday, and most of them concentrated from the 9th to the 12th, and will resume operation from the 24th to the 26th after the Spring Festival. Feed and breeding enterprises have stocked up in advance, and the market trading is light. Although the开机率 will decline after the plants shut down, the supply of soybean meal will continue to increase due to sufficient soybeans in the plants and limited demand after stocking up, which will make the soybean meal price continue to decline weakly [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, but no specific data analysis is given [5][7][8][11] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, but no specific data analysis is given [14][17][19][24]

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