1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [3] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: High short [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, pay attention to import corn auction rhythm and corn - wheat price difference; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers; long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost and focus on policy orientation [3] - **Pig**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring pig prices; mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to materialize if no epidemic occurs [5] - **Egg**: Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, and egg prices may decline if inventory rises; long - term, focus on the extent of chicken culling, and supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices vary: Northeast down 12 yuan/ton to 2155 yuan/ton, North China up 18 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton [3] - Port prices: North weak, South stable. Jinzhou Port down 10 yuan/ton, Shekou Port unchanged [3] - Corn futures warehouse receipts unchanged at 23814 as of September 24 [3] - Wheat - corn price difference in Shandong is + 80 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [3] - Corn bidding procurement: 2.15 million tons planned, 1.91 million tons transacted, 89% success rate [3] - August 2025 national industrial feed output is 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% MoM and 3.8% YoY [3] Market Logic - Short - term, support at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, pressure from wheat - corn price difference [3] - Mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn, with wide - range trading [3] - Long - term, follow import substitution and planting cost pricing, focus on policies [3] Trading Strategy - Mid - long - term, maintain range trading; short - term, look for low - long opportunities. Support for 2511 contract at 2100 - 2130, 2601 contract at 2100 - 2120 [3] Pig Market Review - LH2511 contract closed flat at 12730 yuan/ton yesterday [5] Important Information - National average pig price is 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; expected morning prices are weak - stable [5] - July 2025 fertile sow inventory is 40.42 million, 103.64% of normal level; July sow culling up 2.1% MoM [5] - September 24 fattening - standard price difference is 0.2 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin [5] - September 18 weekly average slaughter weight is 124.68 kg, up 0.36 kg [5] - September 24 pig futures warehouse receipts down 59 to 368 [5] - 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be released on September 28 [5] Market Logic - Short - term, supply exceeds demand, North may stop falling, South remains weak [5] - Mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases [5] - Long - term, sow inventory is high, production capacity will continue to materialize [5] Trading Strategy - Near - month contracts follow supply - demand logic, suggest taking profit on short positions; far - month contracts trade on de - capacity expectation difference. Support for 2511 contract at 12300 - 12500, 2601 contract at 12800 - 13000, etc. [5] Egg Market Review - JD2511 contract fell 0.46% to 3056 yuan/500kg yesterday [5] Important Information - Egg prices are mainly stable, main production area unchanged, main sales area down 0.02 yuan/jin [5] - Inventory increased slightly, production link stable, circulation link up 0.02 days [5] - Old hen price is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; September 18 average culling age is 497 days, up 2 days [5] - August in - production laying hen inventory is 1.365 billion, up 0.66% MoM and 5.98% YoY; September estimated at 1.353 billion, down 0.8% MoM [5] Market Logic - Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, egg prices may decline with rising inventory [5] - Long - term, focus on chicken culling, supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] Trading Strategy - Maintain high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Pressure for 2511 contract at 3090 - 3100, etc. Also, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities for 2607 and 2608 contracts [5]

红枣09合约 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 =2021 == 2022 == 2024 == 2024 == 2025 红枣墓差(河北沧州) 4000 2000 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 =2021 == 2022 == 2023 == 2024 == 2025 红枣目度数据 研究中心农产品团队 2025/9/24 3000 6000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 2000 2/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 1000 -1008- -2000 -10001/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 08/01 10/01 11/01 -3000 -2000 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 -2021 -- 2022 -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a decline in agricultural futures across the board on September 24, with significant drops in soybean, corn, and wheat futures prices [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 0.35%, closing at 1008.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 0.53%, ending at 424.00 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures experienced a decline of 0.19%, closing at 519.50 cents per bushel [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Some products like rapeseed meal are facing downward pressure due to potential supply increases, while others such as sugar and corn are experiencing rebounds influenced by factors like weather and inventory changes. Each product's market situation is detailed along with corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Rapeseed Meal - Continued to decline; impacted by Argentina's cancellation of export tax and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, leading to increased supply expectations. Also, high domestic soybean crushing and rising soybean meal inventory added pressure [2]. - The main 2601 contract fell significantly, below the moving - average system, hitting a 2 - month low. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 2377 and resistance at 2450 [2][3]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract rebounded significantly, driven by short - covering and the rebound of the overseas market. The approaching typhoon in the south provided a weather - related price - boosting factor [4]. - The contract rebounded from a low level, standing above the short - term moving average. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5440 and resistance at 5530 [4]. Soybean Oil - After a sharp decline, it slightly rebounded, but the downward trend remained. Argentina's tax cut on soybean products increased international competition, and domestic supply was abundant [6]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated far below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 8018 and resistance at 8150 [6]. Palm Oil - Rebounded from a low level, supported by improved supply - demand in Malaysia (production down 8% and exports up 8 - 9% in the first 20 days of September). Domestic trading volume increased [8]. - Although it rebounded slightly, it was still below the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 9000 and resistance at 9150 [8]. Corn - Continued to rebound from a low level. Despite expected new supply, port inventory decline and price increases in North China supported the price [10]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded, with short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2170 [10]. Eggs - Continued to decline with high supply pressure. High laying - hen inventory and a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released in November led to weak demand after the holiday [13]. - The main 2511 contract fell below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3090 [13]. Pigs - Rebounded from a low level, but the downward trend remained. High supply due to fattening and disease in some areas was countered by typhoon - affected supply in Guangdong and pre - holiday demand [14][16]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded but was still under moving - average pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 12645 and resistance at 12800 [16]. Cotton - Fluctuated narrowly at a low level, with the downward trend unchanged. New cotton was about to be listed in large quantities, and downstream demand was weak [17]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated with some short - covering. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 13500 and resistance at 13635 [19]. Apples - Oscillated upwards. With the end of early - Fuji trading, late - Fuji procurement for the double - festival was active, and cold - storage inventory decreased [20]. - The main 2601 contract oscillated upwards above the moving - average system. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 8290 and resistance at 8428 [20]. Red Dates - The rebound was blocked. There was a game over new jujube production, quality, and opening prices. Market expectations of a new - jujube harvest reduction coexisted with slow pre - holiday procurement [22]. - The main 2601 contract first rose then fell. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term, with support at 10715 and resistance at 10900 [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, affected by upcoming large - scale new cotton listings and supply pressure. The short - term decline space of ICE cotton is limited, and attention should be paid to ginneries' purchase intentions and opening prices [2]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the near future, but the supply pressure is not fully released. The domestic sugar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, and the future influencing factors include Inner Mongolia's sugar pressing progress and Guangxi's pre - sales situation. A weak view on sugar futures prices is maintained, and attention should be paid to the performance of raw sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 66.61 cents/pound, CF601 decreased 0.7% to 13,540 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions increased by 10,524 lots to 532,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. After the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the overall drive has slowed, with the focus on the macro - level. The US dollar index is weak, and US cotton prices are strong. The number of net short positions of non - commercial positions in the latest week of CFTC has decreased significantly, limiting the short - term sharp decline of US cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak trend due to upcoming new cotton listings and supply pressure, and downstream demand has limited short - term digestion capacity [2]. Sugar - In September, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks were 2.4079 million tons, a decrease of 301,300 tons (11.12%) compared to the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 160,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some processing sugar factories' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Raw sugar rebounded above 16 cents/pound, but the supply pressure remains, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed. The domestic spot market sentiment is pessimistic, with sufficient short - term supply and fragile market sentiment. The futures market is led by raw sugar [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Cotton - The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 20, down 15; the main basis is 1,593, down 21. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76, and the national average is 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 [3]. Sugar - The 1 - 5 contract spread is 26, up 7; the main basis is 411, down 2. The spot price in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou is 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 [3]. 3. Market Information - On September 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,915, down 181 from the previous trading day, with 12 valid forecasts. - On September 23, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,070 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,112 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,151 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,230 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. - On September 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1 (unchanged), the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 25.9 (down 0.1), the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 52.8 (unchanged), and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29 (unchanged). - On September 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - On September 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 10,022, down 293 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the honor of senior analyst of textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-24 棉价延续震荡，纸浆低位盘整 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13540元/吨，较前一日变动-70元/吨，幅度-0.51%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15070元/吨，较前一日变动-76元/吨，现货基差CF01+1530，较前一日变动-6；3128B棉全国均价15133元/吨， 较前一日变动-91元/吨，现货基差CF01+1593，较前一日变动-21。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低点，不过USDA对于部分增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位。此次美棉供需数据基本没有变化， 仅产量微增，消费量、进出口量和期末库存均无变化。整体来看，美棉新年度供需预期有望较此前有一定改善， 对美棉形成较强支撑，但由于当前美棉出口销售进度同比偏慢，短期上方空间受到压制，中长期需关注美棉减产 预期的落地情况。国内方面，国内棉花去库速度持续偏快，商业库存降至同期低位。8月滑准税配额靴子终于落地， 但年度末供应偏紧的格局并未改变，叠加旺季来临需求边际改善，短期国内棉价 ...

油料日报 | 2025-09-24 豆一受阴雨天气影响，花生优质货源阶段性紧张 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3878.00元/吨，较前日变化-34.00元/吨，幅度-0.87%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+342，较前日变化+34，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北地区新季大豆毛粮收购价低开低走，目前价格在1.85-1.9元/斤之间，低蛋白塔粮中粒价格为1.9 元/斤，大粒价格为2元/斤，呈现"优质优价"的特点。目前新粮逐步上市，绥化、齐齐哈尔等地陆续开始收购，多 以低蛋白粮源为主，下游企业按需采购，市场成交不快。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.11元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较前一日平； 黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市 场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足，美豆收获临近令豆粕承压，但由于中 | | 豆粕 | | 美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌空间亦有限，暂以大区间行情对待。阿根廷出 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 口降税至零叠加美豆收获，利空美豆及国内豆粕，昨日豆粕破位下行，短期有回补 | | | | 缺口支持的意图。看多观望为宜。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | | 短线延续调整 | 美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。隔夜棕榈油下破 9200 元， | | ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 24 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：原油反弹，国际油脂存在支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：阿根廷取消豆类出口税，美豆偏弱震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或超跌反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场情绪修复，反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：关注"桦加沙"对蔗区的影响 | 8 | | 棉花：关注籽棉成交价格 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季不旺 | 11 | | 生猪：节前集中释放矛盾阶段 | 12 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 棕榈油：原油反弹，国际油脂存在支撑 豆油：阿根廷取消豆类出口税，美豆偏弱震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,05 ...