1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, energy products, shipping futures, and oilseeds all rising, while agricultural products showed mixed performance [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening marginally, but the overall steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. - The rise of copper prices is restricted due to the increase in global copper inventories and the suppression of demand by high prices, while precious metals are supported by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. - The bullish sentiment in the domestic crude - oil sector is high, driven by external markets. The short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation, and the global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026 [1]. - Oilseeds rose due to strong export sales data and positive market sentiment. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Market - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals led the gains with Shanghai silver up 12.78%, energy products all rose (fuel oil up 6.81%), shipping futures all rose (Containerized Freight Index (Europe Line) up 5.46%), oilseeds all rose (rapeseed oil up 4.08%), most chemical products rose (butadiene rubber up 3.59%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass up 2.45%), most base metals rose (Shanghai tin up 1.37%), black series showed mixed performance (coking coal up 1.35%), most new energy materials rose (polysilicon up 1.19%), and agricultural products led the decline (pigs down 0.99%) [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Different Commodity Sectors 3.2.1 Black Series - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, suppressing iron ore. With high inventories, iron ore futures fluctuated lower. In the future, although the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, the steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and closed slightly higher. The rise was driven by precious metals, but the increase in global copper inventories and high - price suppression of demand limited the rise. Precious metals such as Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver hit new highs due to geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemical Products - Driven by external markets, the domestic crude - oil sector was bullish. Short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation. The global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026, but the surplus pressure in the first quarter is reduced due to OPEC+ suspending production increase [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds - Driven by strong export sales data, US soybeans continued to rise slightly, and domestic soybeans also rose. With the approaching Spring Festival, soybean meal prices stopped falling and rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1].

2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 10 | | 铂：跟随黄金白银回调但趋势并未反转 | 12 | | 钯：找底后继续演绎 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月26日，伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锌涨2.78%报3351.0美元/吨，LME期 铝涨0.84%报3195.5美元/吨，LME期铜涨0.52%报13183.0美元/吨，LME期铅涨0.49%报2036.0美元/吨， LME期镍跌0.89%报18590.0美元/吨，LME期锡跌4.09%报54495.0美元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $5000 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs targeting $5400 and Morgan Stanley at $5700 per ounce for 2026 [1] - The driving forces behind gold's strength include a structural shift in central bank gold purchases, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons since 2022, and 43% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [2] - The transition in central bank purchasing logic from "reserve ratio targets" to "absolute tonnage targets" is expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices [2] - Continued inflows into gold ETFs, with a total increase of 725 tons from January to mid-December 2025, indicate strong demand, especially with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Geopolitical risks have risen significantly, with the geopolitical risk index increasing by 77%, historically correlating with gold price increases [2] - Current net long positions in COMEX gold are at their highest since September 2025, indicating strong market participation [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its precious metal attributes and a tight supply-demand balance [4] - The strong performance of silver is supported by a significant supply gap and increased ETF holdings, with 2025 seeing the second-highest increase since 2020 [5] - China's physical demand for silver has surged, with local supply constraints leading to a premium of 15% for Shanghai silver over COMEX prices [5] - Despite some structural changes in industrial demand, particularly in the solar sector, applications in AI and other industries are expected to provide support for silver demand [5] - The current gold-silver ratio is at its lowest since 2011, suggesting potential for silver price increases if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [5] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is experiencing a clear divergence, with precious metals outperforming industrial metals and bulk commodities [8] - Basic metals have seen limited price increases, with nickel leading due to supply disruptions, while copper prices are supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Bulk commodities like iron ore have faced downward pressure due to rising inventories, while thermal coal prices have increased due to extreme weather conditions [6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that precious metals will continue to have upward potential, while industrial metals will benefit from supply constraints and emerging demand [8] - Investors are advised to focus on precious metals and those industrial metals with significant supply-demand gaps, while monitoring geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policies [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher on January 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.36% [1] - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Technology Index drop over 1%, with companies like Xiaopeng Motors, Kuaishou, and Bilibili falling more than 3% [1] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Hunan Gold and Shengda Resources hitting the daily limit, and Yuguang Gold Lead achieving two consecutive limits [3] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector included: - Hunan Gold: 10.02% increase - Shengda Resources: 10.01% increase - Yuguang Gold Lead: 9.98% increase [4] Basic Metals Sector - The basic metals sector also saw gains, with New Weiling rising over 14% and several other stocks like Yongjie New Materials and Xingye Silver Tin hitting the daily limit [5] - Notable performances included: - New Weiling: 14.44% increase - Yongjie New Materials: 10.01% increase - Xingye Silver Tin: 9.80% increase [6] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector opened significantly higher, with stocks like Oputai rising over 25% and Dongfang Risen achieving a 20% limit [9] - Key stocks in the solar sector included: - Oputai: 25.86% increase - Dongfang Risen: 19.99% increase - Tuo Ri New Energy: 10.07% increase [10] News Impact - Spot gold prices broke through $5080 per ounce, reaching a new high, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract hit a limit, currently priced at 27,634 yuan per kilogram, up 14.55% [7] - Elon Musk announced at the Davos Forum that SpaceX and Tesla plan to build a total of 200GW of solar capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, with each company contributing 100GW [11]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续突破历 史新高 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 金 衡盎 司 ， SLV 白 银 ETF 持仓增加 544,084.20 盎司。 周三，美国 12 月成屋签约销售指数月率 -9.3%，预期 0.4%，前值 3.30%。美国 10 月营建支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.10%。 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The global gold price has reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][2] - Central banks have net purchased over 50 tons of gold in the first two weeks of January 2026, with China's central bank increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, providing strong support for gold prices [1] - Major financial institutions predict bullish targets for gold, with estimates ranging from $4200 to $5300 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating a likely upward trend in the near term [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged above $90 per ounce, driven by increased industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, with a projected 30% growth in global solar installations in 2026 [3] - The current gold-silver ratio is around 59, suggesting potential for silver price recovery compared to historical averages, with predictions of silver prices reaching between $95 and $100 per ounce in the near term [3] - Financial institutions forecast silver prices could rise significantly, with targets of $50 per ounce in the short term and up to $309 per ounce in the long term [3]

1月23日周五，全球金属市场掀起新一轮上涨高潮，以期货即月合约收盘价计，金银齐创2020年来最大单周涨幅，进入2026年以来保持每周累涨。 纽约期银和伦敦现货白银均史上首次突破100美元关口。 黄金连续第五个交易日盘中创历史新高，进一步逼近5000美元大关，伦铜重上1.3万美元，接近本月稍早创下的盘中最高纪录。其他贵金属和工业金属涨 势凌厉。美股盘中，纽约钯金期货曾涨约7%，铂金期货曾涨超7%，伦镍和伦锡周五收盘分别涨超4%和9.5%。 这轮涨势受到多重因素推动。美元走弱、投资者资金大规模流出货币和主权债券，加之特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性、美欧关系恶化以及地缘政治局 势动荡，均加剧了避险情绪，共同推动金属持续上涨。 评论提及，特朗普关于美国"舰队"正前往伊朗的言论促使投资者涌入白银、黄金和铜等基本金属。这里所说的舰队是指，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普 22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。 机构普遍看涨贵金属后市。华尔街见闻上周提到，摩根大通预计，金价到2026年第四季度将达到5000美元，长期甚至看向6000美元；花旗在牛市情景下将 未来0-3个月 ...

23日周五，全球金属市场掀起新一轮上涨高潮。 纽约期银和伦敦现货白银均史上首次突破100美元关口，黄金连续第五个交易日刷新历史新高，进一步逼近5000美元大关，伦铜重上1.3万美元，接近 本月稍早创下的盘中最高纪录。其他贵金属和工业金属涨势凌厉。周五美股早盘刷新日高时，纽约铂金和钯金期货分别涨超6%和约7%，工业金属伦 镍和伦锡周五盘中均涨超4%。 这轮涨势受到多重因素推动。美元走弱、投资者资金大规模流出货币和主权债券，特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性以及地缘政治局势动荡，均加剧 了避险情绪，共同推动金属持续上涨。 评论提及，特朗普关于美国"舰队"正前往伊朗的言论促使投资者涌入白银、黄金和铜等基本金属。这里所说的舰队是指，据新华社报道，美国总统特 朗普22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。 华尔街机构普遍看涨贵金属后市。华尔街见闻上周提到，摩根大通预计，金价到2026年第四季度将达到5000美元，长期甚至看向6000美元；花旗在牛 市情景下将未来0-3个月金价目标上调至5000美元，白银目标上调至100美元；瑞银预计白银从当前水平仍有约25%的上涨空间，但 ...

2026.01. 23 ▲ 0.33% ▲ 0.79% ▲ 0.63% A股三大指数震荡走高,集体收涨。上证指数全天窄幅震荡,银行、保险等金融权重板块表现 疲软对指数形成压制,深证成指领涨市场,中小盘成长股成为推动力,创业板指技术面修复, 光伏设备、机器人等板块贡献主要涨幅。 $$3938\gtrapprox L{\mathrm{Mk}}$$ 13895 涨跌停比 市场呈现普涨态势,做多热情高涨。光伏产业链 全线爆发,商业航天概念股再度大涨,基本金属 板块掀涨停潮,半导体、算力等前期高位题材出 现获利了结,部分个股调整较大. 保险、银行等 权重板块表现相对平淡。 两市成交额 . 09 万亿元 ▲ 14.6% 两市成交额放量,市场活跃度进一步上升。深市 成交额及其增幅均高于沪市,光伏设备、商业航 天、基本金属等热点板块全天强势,AI应用、机 器人等题材也表现活跃,这些板块的炒作和轮 动带来了大量交易,是推高整体成交额的重要 动力。 资金情绪 主力资金净流出 散户情绪 散户资金净流入 极调仓,向政策确定性行业集中,资金从半导体、通信设备等领域出逃,流入光伏设备、能源金属。 散户积极入场,交易行为偏重题材和短期热点 ...