2025年10月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：考验21000关口 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% due to recession fears and expectations of renewed tariffs [4] - Copper prices have rebounded by 2.25% on the LME, driven by tariff expectations, despite some pressure from lower downstream demand [5] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply concerns following the announcement of export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant weekly increases in various cobalt compounds [6] - The report indicates that rare earth prices have decreased but are expected to stabilize due to tightened export controls and ongoing demand in sectors like energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the industry is at 7322.8, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.25%, aluminum by 1.18%, while zinc, lead, and tin experienced declines [19] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold up by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [19] Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories increased by 16,766 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,049 tons [33][35]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking coke rose by 1.55% and 0.57%, respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and Shanghai silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices dropped by 12.41% over the week [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery utilization at a low of 81.23% [2] Group 3: Pork Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow trading sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales of pork have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%, with core CPI rising by 1.0% [6][7] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for a significant portion of the overall decrease [6] - The export growth rate for September was 8.3%, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [10][11]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and rising credit crisis concerns have led to expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in sustained highs for gold and silver prices. COMEX gold rose by 5.76% to $4,267.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver increased by 6.55% to $50.63 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also saw significant increases of 10.53% to 999.80 yuan per gram and 12,249.00 yuan per kilogram, respectively [1][2][30]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The gold-silver ratio fell by 0.74% to 84.30. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 966,285.71 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 1,452,401.60 ounces [1][30]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 17th day, with significant economic impacts estimated at a weekly loss of $15 billion. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices [3][45][46]. - The silver market is experiencing extreme tightness, leading to a historical "short squeeze" with leasing rates exceeding 35%. Global silver shortages are projected to reach approximately 3,660 tons in 2025, with industrial demand expected to grow due to AI-driven applications [7][47]. Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 2.25% to $10,607.00 per ton, while aluminum increased by 1.18% to $2,778.50 per ton. Zinc and lead prices, however, saw declines [8][9]. - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to production disruptions in major mines, with a projected reduction of 200,000 tons in Q4 2025. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive of copper prices, with expectations of continued U.S. dollar depreciation [10][11][21]. - Aluminum demand remains stable, with production expected to increase due to new projects. The profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are improving as raw material costs decline [12][22]. Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have decreased by 1.43% to 17,920 yuan per ton, while molybdenum prices rose by 3.28% to 283,500 yuan per ton due to increased demand from steelmaking [17][18]. - The market for vanadium remains under pressure, with prices declining as steel demand has not met expectations [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold and silver stocks due to their expected performance in the current economic climate. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [6][20][47].

每经AI快讯，当地时间10月17日，伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME期锡跌2.07%报35030.00美元/吨，本周 累计下跌3.16%；LME期镍跌1.03%报15110.00美元/吨，本周累计下跌1.11%；LME期锌跌1.03%报 2942.50美元/吨，本周累计下跌1.97%；LME期铜跌0.38%报10607.00美元/吨，本周累计上涨0.85%； LME期铝跌0.36%报2778.50美元/吨，本周累计上涨1.11%；LME期铅涨0.31%报1971.50美元/吨，本周累 计下跌2.43%。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated October 17, 2025, covering various metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver's spot contradictions are easing, leading to a price increase followed by a decline. Copper's spot premium supports its price, zinc shows internal and external differentiation, and lead's overseas inventory reduction limits price drops. Tin's price is influenced by macro factors, and aluminum has upward potential. Alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level due to bearish macro sentiment, and stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost providing a downside limit [2]. Summary by Metal Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T+D, Comex Gold 2512, and London Gold Spot all increased, with night - time prices also rising. Trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Comex Gold 2512 increased, while Shanghai Gold 2512's open interest decreased, and Comex Gold 2512's increased. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's open interest increased, and inventories of Shanghai Gold and Comex Gold changed, with Shanghai Gold's inventory rising and Comex Gold's falling. - **Trend Strength**: Gold's trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T+D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot rose, with night - time prices also increasing. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2512 increased, and its open interest remained unchanged. - **ETF and Inventory**: SLV Silver ETF's open interest remained unchanged, and inventories of Shanghai Silver and Comex Silver decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Silver's trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Copper 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased, and its open interest increased. - **Inventory and Premium**: Shanghai Copper's inventory decreased, and LME Copper's inventory also declined. The LME Copper premium decreased significantly. - **Trend Strength**: Copper's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk decreased slightly. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Zinc decreased while that of LME Zinc increased. - **Premium and Inventory**: Shanghai 0 zinc's premium changed, and LME CASH - 3M premium increased. Shanghai Zinc's inventory increased, and LME Zinc's inventory decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Lead 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Lead decreased while that of LME Lead increased. - **Premium and Inventory**: Shanghai 1 lead's premium decreased, and LME CASH - 3M premium decreased. LME Lead's inventory decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Lead's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Tin 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased, and its open interest decreased. - **Inventory and Premium**: Shanghai Tin's inventory decreased, and the LME Tin premium changed slightly. - **Trend Strength**: Tin's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [17]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and aluminum alloy main contract showed different trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed accordingly. - **Inventory and Premium**: LME Aluminum's注销仓单占比 and various premiums changed. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating neutral outlooks [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract changed. The trading volumes of both showed different trends. - **Industry - related Data**: Key prices and spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industries changed. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, suggesting neutral views [22].

2025年10月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：偏弱震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：震荡整理 | 11 | | 氧化铝：利润压缩 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 10 月 16 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Insights - Most base metals in London experienced price increases on October 15, with LME tin rising by 0.54% to $35,380.00 per ton, LME aluminum increasing by 0.26% to $2,744.50 per ton, LME lead up by 0.20% to $1,986.00 per ton, and LME nickel gaining 0.10% to $15,150.00 per ton [1] - In contrast, LME copper saw a slight decline of 0.02% to $10,576.00 per ton, and LME zinc decreased by 0.03% to $2,940.50 per ton [1] Price Movements - LME tin: +0.54% to $35,380.00/ton [1] - LME aluminum: +0.26% to $2,744.50/ton [1] - LME lead: +0.20% to $1,986.00/ton [1] - LME nickel: +0.10% to $15,150.00/ton [1] - LME copper: -0.02% to $10,576.00/ton [1] - LME zinc: -0.03% to $2,940.50/ton [1]

Overall Investment Ratings - Gold: Continue to reach new highs [2] - Silver: Spot contradictions ease, price surges then retreats [2] - Copper: Market cautious, price oscillates [2] - Zinc: Oscillates weakly [2] - Lead: Inventory increases, price under pressure [2] - Tin: Focus on macro - impact [2] - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval [2] - Alumina: Center of gravity moves downward [2] - Foundry aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Macro sentiment turns bearish, nickel price oscillates at a low level [2] - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, cost below limits price elasticity [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various precious metals and basic metals, including their price movements, trading volume, inventory changes, and relevant macro - and industry - news [4][8][11] Summary by Metals Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2512 was 927.56, up 2.88%, and the night - session closing price was 936.72, up 2.45%. The trading volume of SHFE Gold 2512 was 446,705, an increase of 12,139 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE gold was 70,728 kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **News**: Fed Chair Powell hinted at another rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end, warning of a deteriorating labor - market outlook [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE Silver 2512 was 11,531, up 4.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,710, up 4.22%. The trading volume of SHFE Silver 2512 was 1,550, a decrease of 966 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE silver was 1,124,456 kg, a decrease of 44,605 kg from the previous day [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, influenced by Fed's potential rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction news [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 84,410, down 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 84,890, up 0.57%. The trading volume of SHFE copper's main contract was 210,984, a decrease of 80,438 from the previous day [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE copper was 36,295 tons, an increase of 3,405 tons from the previous day [8]. - **News**: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts; investigation of Chile's El Teniente copper - mine accident will take months; Codelco's August copper production hit a 22 - year low [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,220, down 0.16%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc's main contract was 124,307, a decrease of 53,037 from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE zinc was 58,494 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons from the previous day [11]. - **News**: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17,050, down 0.26%. The trading volume of SHFE lead's main contract was 43,201, a decrease of 23,393 from the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE lead was 30,705 tons, an increase of 1,136 tons from the previous day [14]. - **News**: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts; "New Fed Wire" said the Fed stays on the rate - cut track [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 282,110, down 1.48%, and the night - session closing price was 282,800, down 0.26%. The trading volume of SHFE tin's main contract was 106,939, an increase of 1,793 from the previous day [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE tin was 5,745 tons, a decrease of 64 tons from the previous day [17]. - **News**: Multiple macro - and industry - news including Fed's rate - cut hints and international trade - related events [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Foundry Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20,860, down 25 from the previous day. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,805, down 15 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum - alloy main contract was 20,380, down 30 from the previous day [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory was 64.20 million tons, unchanged from the previous day [21]. - **News**: Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 120,830, down 580 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,565, down 90 from the previous day [24]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related data emphasized in the text [24]. - **News**: Indonesian forestry group takes over a nickel - mine area; China suspends an unofficial subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports; Indonesia sanctions mining companies; Trump may impose 100% tariffs on China [24][25][26]

Group 1: Oil Market - WTI crude oil has dropped to $58.7 per barrel, the lowest price since May, while Brent crude is around $62 [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in global oil supply compared to demand next year, marking an unprecedented overproduction [3] - Trade tensions have led to decreased demand expectations for oil, causing further price declines [3] - Major oil executives from companies like Trafigura and Gunvor predict that oil prices are likely to continue falling, with gasoline and diesel demand potentially peaking [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Base metals are experiencing a collective decline, with LME copper down 2.24%, aluminum and nickel also falling, and zinc hitting a nearly eight-month low with a 2.63% drop [3] - The decline in metal prices is attributed to weak industrial demand and uncertainty in trade relations, leading to reduced factory orders for raw materials [3] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold has risen by 0.73% to $4,138.7 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts [4] - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted investors to convert cash into gold for protection, while lower interest rates make non-yielding gold more attractive [4] - Long-term forecasts suggest that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce, supported by continued buying from ETFs and central banks [4]