荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品专家指出，金价再度刷新历史高位，核心驱动因素在于美国政府持续停 摆引发的避险情绪升温，推动投资者加大对黄金这一避险资产的配置需求。 与此同时，现货黄金报3976.94美元/盎司，同样创下历史新高。10月6日，伦敦现货金先是突破3900美 元大关，紧接着又破3950美元大关，日内涨超70美元，涨幅达1.8%，再度刷新历史纪录；COMEX黄金 期货大涨1.8%，最高触及3983美元，逼近4000美元大关。 当地时间10月6日晚，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度突破每盎司4000美元。外媒报道，这 是纽约黄金期货价格历史上首次突破这一关口。截至目前，纽约期金年内大涨逾50%。 ...

Core Insights - Selwood Asset Management warns that the current AI-driven market frenzy is nearing its peak, potentially leading to a rapid collapse [1] - The firm is adjusting its investment strategy to mitigate risks associated with the AI bubble, focusing on energy-related commodities instead of shorting volatile tech stocks [1][4] Group 1: AI Market Concerns - The CIO of Selwood Asset Management, Karim Moussalem, believes that the trading in the AI sector resembles historical speculative bubbles driven by retail investors [1][2] - Moussalem expresses concern that the energy costs associated with AI are becoming a significant vulnerability, with rising energy prices potentially limiting AI's expansion capabilities [1][3] - He highlights that the profitability of AI-related companies may be overstated due to optimistic depreciation methods for capital expenditures, suggesting that profits could be significantly overestimated if a more realistic depreciation period is applied [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In response to the perceived AI bubble and energy constraints, Selwood Asset Management is actively investing in energy markets, particularly uranium, which is viewed as a stable investment opportunity [4] - The firm believes that the demand for stable and high-capacity energy sources for AI data centers will drive interest in uranium, which is currently undervalued [4] - Moussalem acknowledges the challenges of shorting overvalued tech stocks due to retail investor enthusiasm, making energy-related assets a more prudent hedge strategy [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The concerns raised by Moussalem resonate with other seasoned investors, such as Leon Cooperman, who notes that the market is at the end of a bull cycle, with bubbles forming during this phase [5] - Georges Debbas from BNP Paribas also expresses caution, indicating that questions surrounding AI investments will increase as companies face low returns despite significant investments [5]

Core Insights - The discussion around the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has intensified, with many investors focusing on the implications for the US dollar's exchange rate. However, the relationship between interest rate cuts and currency depreciation is more complex than it appears [1][3]. Group 1: Nature of Interest Rate Cuts - The simplistic view that "lower rates lead to a weaker dollar" must be abandoned. The impact of Fed rate cuts on the dollar depends on whether the cuts are "preventive" or "recessionary" in nature [3]. - Preventive rate cuts are proactive measures taken to extend economic expansion and manage risks, often leading to increased market confidence and potentially strengthening the dollar [3][4]. - Recessionary rate cuts occur in response to clear signs of economic distress, which can heighten market fears and lead to a flight to safety, often resulting in increased demand for US dollar assets despite the theoretical negative impact on the dollar [4]. Group 2: Global Economic Interconnections - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that fluctuations in major economies can have ripple effects. For instance, the 2008 financial crisis highlighted how US economic issues can impact global markets [6]. - China's economic transitions and policy adjustments also have significant global implications, affecting demand for commodities and influencing international markets [6][8]. - The US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency amplifies the effects of its monetary policy on global financial markets, making it crucial for investors to understand these dynamics [8]. Group 3: Future Market Considerations - Investors should focus on the underlying health of the US economy, analyzing key indicators such as employment, inflation, and consumption to determine the nature of any rate cuts [9]. - Acknowledging the "new normal" for the Chinese yuan, characterized by stability and two-way fluctuations, is essential for understanding its future trajectory in the context of global economic changes [10]. - The interdependence of global economies necessitates a comprehensive perspective and dynamic analytical framework to navigate the complexities of the financial markets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in various commodity prices, highlighting the mixed performance across sectors, with some showing strength due to external factors like overseas interest rate cuts and supply disruptions in Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 865 points as of September 29, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the end of August, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 3.8% month-on-month [1][4]. - Domestic demand for bulk commodities saw most prices increase, with glass and coking coal futures rising by 15.2% and 2.1% respectively, while chemical products and cement prices saw slight declines [9][10]. - The South China comprehensive index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year average increase of 6.0% compared to the previous 3.3% [9][10]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The housing prices in major cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index for four first-tier cities showing changes of -0.7%, -0.4%, 1.6%, and -0.2% respectively compared to the last week of August [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors showed strong price performance, with the photovoltaic industry composite index rising by 6.9% month-on-month, and the DXI index for the semiconductor sector increasing by 25.7% [11][11]. Group 4: Non-Food Prices - The ICPI index, representing non-food prices, slightly increased to 100.20 as of September 29, with notable increases in housing, daily necessities, and transportation services [14]. - In the export shipping sector, container shipping prices generally declined, with the CCFI index down by 6.0% [14][15]. Group 5: Logistics and Food Prices - The average monthly value of the highway logistics price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous 0.8% [18]. - Food prices showed mixed trends, with a 3.1% decrease in the average wholesale price of pork, while key vegetable prices rose by 1.4% [19].

Core Insights - The fourth Global Digital Trade Expo highlighted Hangzhou's ambition to leverage the expo's spillover effects to accelerate the transformation of results and establish a core area for global digital trade ports by 2027, targeting a digital trade volume of 440 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Digital Trade Development - Hangzhou aims to utilize its high digital trade volume, leading position in service outsourcing pilot cities, and being the first national cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone to develop a global digital trade port core area [1] - The city plans to strengthen its capabilities in bulk commodity futures, spot trading, entrusted funds, profitability, and professional talent, focusing on creating a smart trade hub for bulk commodities [1] Group 2: Industry Cluster and AI Initiatives - Hangzhou intends to cultivate 12 trillion-yuan-level industrial clusters in sectors such as energy chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals, positioning itself as the leading city for smart trade in bulk commodities [1] - As a region where the artificial intelligence industry accounts for 70% of Zhejiang province's total, Hangzhou seeks national support to pilot comprehensive reforms in the AI industry chain within its free trade zone and aims to establish an international cooperation service alliance for AI [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show divergence, with asphalt plant operating rates rebounding to historical median levels, while cement dispatch and mill operation rates remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production maintains a high level of overall activity, with PX operating rates at historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[2][23] - Demand in construction remains weak, with rebar and building materials demand at historical lows, and automotive and home appliance sales also underperforming[3][31] Prices - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the Nanhua Composite Index showing an upward trend[4][43] - International commodity prices, including oil, copper, and gold, are also on the rise[4][38] Real Estate - New housing transactions in 30 major cities increased by 33% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year changes of -39% and +12% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[5][58] - Second-hand housing transactions in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have shown significant recovery, with year-on-year increases of +49%, +42%, and +71% respectively[5][63] Exports - Port throughput in September increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with export growth projected at approximately +6.7% based on multiple indicator models[6][66] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen an upward trend in funding rates, with R007 at 1.64% and DR007 at 1.56% as of September 28[6][71] - The central bank has implemented a net injection of 171.1 billion yuan in recent weeks[6][73]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have not significantly impacted commodity prices, with underlying market fundamentals appearing weak [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Analysis - Demand growth is slowing, and OPEC+ is increasing supply, which may lead to lower oil prices until the end of 2026 [1] - The potential price support from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be offset by other factors, limiting any additional support for commodity prices [1] Group 2: Dollar Index and Technical Analysis - The dollar index is testing key technical levels and may form a bearish closing reversal top pattern [1] - If confirmed, this pattern could trigger a pullback to the 50% support level at 97.021 [1] - Strong resistance is present at the 50-day moving average of 98.070 and the pivot resistance level of 98.238 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products continuing to weaken. Macro factors are mixed, and fundamentals may dominate the trend. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. - Overseas, the new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus, the Fed cut interest rates, US retail sales grew, and the Eurozone's economic sentiment index increased [3]. - Domestically, due to factors such as slowing export growth, economic downward pressure has increased in August. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies, focusing on fiscal support, central bank interest rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic**: This week, the commodity index showed a trend of rising and then falling, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products weakening. The first half of the week was stimulated by factors such as progress in China - US trade negotiations and rising Fed interest - rate cut expectations, while the second half was suppressed by the landing of interest - rate cut expectations and the rebound of the US dollar index [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus in Madrid. On September 18th, the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. On September 16th, US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In August, due to factors like slowing export growth, economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, new incremental measures will be introduced, with the core being fiscal support, central bank interest - rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stabilize. The joint efforts of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on "stabilizing investment" and "promoting consumption" [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Macro factors are mixed. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the "restart of easing" will have an important impact on market liquidity [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, and the real retail sales after CPI adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month [3]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose, and the industrial output in July rebounded slightly [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In August, due to factors such as slowing export growth, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial production, investment, and consumption continued to decline, and economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [3]. - The cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turning positive is a positive signal, but the year - on - year decline in the transfer income of state - owned land use rights indicates that local land finance still faces certain pressure [3]. - Nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures from five aspects [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **开工率数据**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rates of terephthalic acid, polyester, and weaving in the polyester industry chain, as well as the national and Tangshan blast furnace operating rates [33]. - **汽车销售数据**: The data shows the year - on - year growth rates of factory wholesale and retail sales, and specific sales data for September [42][45]. - **农产品价格数据**: The data includes the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables, pork, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].

Market Overview - In August, the overall market risk appetite improved, with Chinese stocks leading the gains at a return of 7.2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - Daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 22,796 billion yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rose, contributing to an increase in gold prices [1] - OPEC+ announced a substantial increase in production, leading to a decline in oil prices by 6.53% [1] Asset Performance - The ranking of asset returns for August is as follows: Chinese stocks > Gold > Global stocks > Global bonds > Agricultural products > Cash > Foreign exchange > Domestic bonds > Real estate > Industrial products > Oil [1] Chinese Stock Market - The Chinese stock market continued to perform well, with major indices rising: the Wind China 500R Index increased by 7.2%, the Wind All A Index rose by 10.9%, and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 3.3% [10] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,796 billion yuan, up from 16,101 billion yuan the previous month, indicating increased market activity [10] - The technology sector, particularly in AI, computing power, and semiconductors, showed strong performance with a monthly increase of 16.3% [11] Global Stock Market - The global stock market saw most indices rise, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [5] - Vietnam and Brazil led the gains with returns of 12.0% and 8.9%, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and India lagged with returns of -2.9% and -2.2% [5] - Developed markets, particularly Japan, performed well with a return of 5.9%, while Germany and France had returns below 1% [5] Bond Market - The bond market faced pressure in August, with rising yield expectations due to inflation concerns [12] - Convertible bonds led the performance with a yield of 4.32%, while interest rate bonds showed the weakest performance with a decline of 0.44% [12] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 13.35 basis points to 1.84% [12] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached new highs, closing at $3,516.0 per ounce, a 4.9% increase from the previous month [17] - Oil prices declined by 4% to $67 per barrel due to increased supply and weakened demand [17] - In the agricultural sector, soybeans showed the best performance with a 6.4% increase [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in first-tier cities continued to show a downward trend, with investment indices declining [20] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% to 1.786 million square meters [22] - The overall market remains under pressure, indicating that recovery in the industry requires further observation of subsequent data [22] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell by 2.20% to 97.85, reflecting a weakening trend [24] - The decline in the dollar has put upward pressure on the renminbi exchange rate [24] Cash Market - The money market fund index rose to 1,706.44 points, a slight increase of 0.09% from the previous month [26] - The annualized yield of the Yu'ebao seven-day fund was 1.06%, showing a slight increase [26]