1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] - For polypropylene, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [19] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 1.01%, to $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.09, or 1.65%, to $67.04; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.00 yuan, or 0.21%, to 475.9 yuan [1] - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels, a 1.41% decrease; SPR increased by 0.22 million barrels to 403.43 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, a 1.20% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 43.30 million barrels, a 1.02% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract rose 33 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 119 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices have risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production starts are increasing, leading to greater supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract fell 41 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 40 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production starts have turned from decreasing to increasing, and corporate profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the demand side is generally weak. The downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires were weak. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 7 yuan to 5008 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 288 (- 37) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (+8) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, an increase of 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, a decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 327,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 812,000 tons. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [10] Benzene Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and the cost side still provides support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply side is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [12][13] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7275 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is high, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity release plan in August. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The demand side is in the off - season. There is a 450,000 - ton planned capacity release in August. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 70 yuan to 6844 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 837 dollars, with a basis of 43 (- 51) yuan and an 11 - 1 spread of 58 (+10) yuan [18] - **Fundamentals**: The PX operating rate remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. However, due to the new PTA device put into operation, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The valuation has support at the bottom but is limited in the short - term upside. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 44 yuan to 4778 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4690 yuan, and the basis was - 2 (+6) yuan [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA operating rate is 76.4%, an increase of 1.7%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. The supply side may accumulate inventory due to new device production, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 53 yuan to 4477 yuan, the East China spot price rose 49 yuan to 4507 yuan, the basis was 90 (- 3) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (- 10) yuan [21] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side operating rate is 66.4%, a decrease of 2%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 547,000 tons. The short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakening in mid-August will limit its upside, with a short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profits, and to position for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruptions in September on significant price drops [3]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal-to-methanol profits are still high year-on-year. Domestic and overseas production are increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Demand remains weak currently but is expected to improve in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Regarding urea, the news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while demand is average. The price is in a narrow range, and it is recommended to look for long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it is expected to be range-bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. - PVC has high supply, weak demand, and high valuations. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost trend upward [13][16]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term, with high production capacity planned for August. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July, with weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [19]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following crude oil in the peak season [22]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, with limited processing margins. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to enter an inventory accumulation cycle. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude futures fell $0.77, or 1.22%, to $62.51/barrel; Brent crude futures fell $0.51, or 0.77%, to $65.95/barrel; INE crude futures fell 5.70 yuan, or 1.18%, to 476.9 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories increased by 0.39 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a 5.14% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 2.28 million barrels, a 1.24% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 7.36 million barrels, a 3.64% decrease; total refined oil inventories increased by 0.14 million barrels to 17.69 million barrels, a 0.82% increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 111 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic production is bottoming out and rising, and overseas production is at a high level, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract rose 63 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated downward [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from the previous week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year, with normal domestic and export orders. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year, with weak export orders. As of August 10, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons, or 0.85%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, the inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be range - bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 53 yuan to 5001 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 251 (+ 3) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (- 11) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 (- 1) tons, and social inventory is 81.2 (+ 3.5) tons. The company's comprehensive profit is at a high level, with high production and low downstream demand. The export is under pressure from India's anti - dumping policy, and the valuation support is weakening [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply side is increasing production, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The demand side is in the off - season but is showing an upward trend [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects positive policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, with cost support. The spot price fell, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are high, and demand is weak in the off - season. There is a high production capacity plan in August, and the price will be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and the operating rate is expected to rise. Demand is seasonally weak. There is a 45 - ton production capacity plan in August. The price is expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 14 yuan to 6774 yuan, PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 835 dollars, the basis was 94 (+ 6) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 (+ 12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The load in China is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and in Asia is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices are restarting or reducing production. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 12 yuan to 4734 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 8 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 (- 4) yuan [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices are restarting or shutting down. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Social inventory is 225 tons, down 2.3 tons. Supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and processing margins are limited. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 38 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price rose 17 yuan to 4458 yuan, the basis was 93 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 (+ 6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is 66.4%, down 2%, with some devices restarting or reducing production. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. The import forecast is 5.4 tons, and the port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost side is stable, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken, with downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide a specific overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, individual product outlooks suggest a mix of trends, with many products expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation with a downward bias" in the short - term [9][11][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA monthly report indicates that in 2026, the global oil surplus will reach a record high due to slowed demand growth and increased supply. The oil market is currently under pressure, and the chemical industry chain is likely to face an oversupply situation. High - inventory varieties may experience a small - scale adjustment, and the future demand trend will determine the performance of the January contracts [2][3]. - The stock market is performing strongly, while the oil market is weak. The seasonal peak of global aviation kerosene demand is about to subside, which has a negative impact on medium - distillate products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs A. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure still exists. The EIA data shows that the demand at the refinery level in the US in the week of August 8th was relatively strong, but the overall inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased, which is bearish. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th may reduce concerns about Russian oil supply and the geopolitical premium [2][9]. - **Stock Market**: The US stock market has soared to a record high due to mild inflation data, and the stock markets in other regions of the world are also performing well [2]. B. Product - Specific Analysis - **Asphalt**: It has fallen below the important support level of 3500 yuan. The futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. The increase in OPEC+ production, potential tariff hikes, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are all negative factors. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and its valuation is relatively high [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak oscillatory state. The increase in supply due to OPEC+ production hikes, the increase in import tariffs in China, weak demand in the US gasoline and Middle - East power - generation sectors, and the weakening of the three driving factors (Russia - Ukraine conflict, local refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict) all contribute to the supply - demand imbalance [11][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price is oscillating weakly following the trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the increase in domestic refined - oil supply pressure [13]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and it is in an oscillatory state. The production profit is relatively high, but the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [29]. - **Urea**: Supported by orders and market sentiment, the futures price has temporarily stabilized and strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has slowed down, and the daily production is at a high level. The market is mainly supported by pending orders and macro - sentiment, and its future trend depends on actual demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is in an oscillatory state. The supply change is limited, and the downstream polyester load is stable, but the overall sales performance is poor [22][23]. - **PX**: The cost support has weakened again, and the entire polyester chain is in a downward trend. The supply pressure continues, and the cost support in the short - term has weakened. The short - term price will fluctuate at a low level following the upstream cost [15]. - **PTA**: The cost support has weakened, the sales performance is mediocre, and the warehouse - receipt pressure has increased. The supply has increased while the demand has weakened, and the short - term price will follow the cost for low - level consolidation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and inventory replenishment is cautious. The upstream raw material price has declined, the cost support is weak, and the short - term price will oscillate at a low level [25][26]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The upstream polymerization cost support has declined, and the overall supply - demand situation has changed little [26][27]. - **PP**: Supply still exists, and it is in an oscillatory state. The coal and oil markets have an impact on it. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition, with a slow increase in downstream开工 [35][36]. - **Propylene**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 yuan is considered reasonable, and PL is in a short - term oscillatory state. The PDH enterprises in some areas are under maintenance, and the spot market is temporarily stable [36]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. It is in an oscillatory state. Oil prices are oscillating weakly, the macro - level has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in a slow transition from the off - season to the peak season [33][34]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume has decreased, and downstream production capacity has been put into operation. The buying sentiment has increased, and the market structure has changed to Back. The port inventory has decreased, which has boosted market sentiment, and the short - term fundamentals are okay [17][20]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak [20][22]. - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is expected to rise [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the market is cautiously optimistic. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand from the alumina industry, improved export orders, and high - level production [40]. C. Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing different trends of change [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse - receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [42]. - **Inter - product Spread**: Data on inter - product spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, which helps in analyzing the relative valuation between different products [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on macroeconomic data, industry news, and inventory changes in each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - shares rose strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The semiconductor产业链 was hot, while high - dividend sectors such as banks and coal had a slight correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and their basis further repaired [2][3]. - News: China counter - sanctioned two EU banks. The US July CPI was in line with expectations, and the market expected a Fed rate cut in September [3][4]. - Capital: A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a turnover of over 2.15 trillion. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.14%, 0.21%, - 0.87%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price near 6400 on rallies, with a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.02%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were in a comfortable state, and the liquidity might converge slightly in the short term [5][6]. - Fundamentals: China's M2, M1, and M0 balances increased year - on - year in July. The increase in social financing scale was 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, but entity credit decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: The credit in July was weaker year - on - year, and the bond market sentiment stabilized. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the tax - period funds and new bond issuance pricing [6]. Precious Metals - News: The US Treasury Secretary said that the US might increase sanctions on Russia. Some Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts, and the market continued to digest the expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - Market: International gold prices rose slightly, closing at $3355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%. International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, hitting a three - week high [8]. - Outlook: The market sentiment was affected by trade agreements, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increased. Technically, gold faced resistance at $3450. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options on price pullbacks. Silver may fluctuate in a range, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed with put options [8][10]. Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - Spot price: As of August 14, the spot prices of major shipping companies were provided [11]. - Index: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index also fell [11]. - Fundamentals: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone and US manufacturing PMIs were provided [11]. - Logic: The futures price declined, and the main contract broke through the 1400 - point support. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, the price of the October contract may be lower than last year [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short positions in the 10 - contract can be held [12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased. The willingness of holders to sell at low prices was low [13]. - Macro: Trump signed the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days. The US July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut [13][14]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods decreased, while that of recycled copper rods increased. The domestic demand was resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [15]. - Inventory: COMEX and LME copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: The market expected a Fed rate cut in September, and the short - term tariff risk was released. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a range [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [17]. Alumina - Spot: On August 13, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Supply: The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The alumina port inventory and warehouse receipts increased [18]. - Logic: The supply - side concerns had limited impact, and the market was slightly oversupplied. The price may fluctuate between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract may run between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio decreased [20][21]. - Demand: The downstream was in the off - season, and the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum foil, etc. were generally low [21]. - Inventory: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories increased [21]. - Logic: The market increased the bet on a Fed rate cut in September, and the aluminum price rose slightly. The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price may be under pressure in the short term, running between 20000 - 21000 [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 20000 - 21000, paying attention to the resistance at 21000 [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in June increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and cost factors [23]. - Demand: The demand in July was under pressure, and the trading activity decreased. The inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The price followed the aluminum price and fluctuated strongly. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 19200 - 20200 [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 19400 - 20400 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore TC remained stable. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - Demand: The spot premium of zinc decreased. The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement was weak [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [28]. - Logic: The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The zinc price may fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - Spot: On August 13, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream was reluctant to replenish inventory [29]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore imports in June were at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter [31]. - Demand: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry declined, and the demand was expected to be weak [30][31]. - Inventory: The LME inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased slightly [30]. - Logic: The rate - cut expectation drove the tin price up. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the Myanmar tin ore imports [31][32]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The refined nickel production in July was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and high - priced nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: The market sentiment was stable, and the price may fluctuate between 120000 - 126000. The medium - term supply was loose, restricting the upside [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 120000 - 126000 [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [35]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chrome - iron price was weak [35][37]. - Supply: The estimated stainless - steel production in August increased month - on - month [36]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased slightly [36]. - Logic: The price decreased slightly, the cost was supportive, but the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 13000 - 13500 [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 13000 - 13500 [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The upstream was bullish [37]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production in July increased, and the production in August is expected to increase [38]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the cell orders were okay [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased, the upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely. The fundamentals were in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate around 85,000. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips [40]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see cautiously and go long lightly on dips [41]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The steel futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreased [42]. - Cost and profit: The cost increased, but the steel price also rose, and the steel mill profit increased. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - Supply: The iron - element production from January to July increased year - on - year. The current iron - water production was stable, and the scrap - steel consumption increased. The rebar production increased, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased [42]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products from January to July was basically flat year - on - year. The current apparent demand decreased [43]. - Inventory: The inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the increase in trader inventory [43]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was supported by the small increase in steel mill inventory. The 10 - contract price may fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to the support levels of 3400 for hot - rolled coil and 3200 for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased slightly [45]. - Futures: The near - month 2509 contract increased, and the main 2601 contract remained unchanged [45]. - Basis: The basis of different iron - ore varieties was provided [45]. - Demand: The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased [45]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment and port arrival decreased this week [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average port clearance increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [46]. - Viewpoint: The 09 contract fluctuated. The iron - ore price may follow the steel price. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking - coal futures price decreased, and the spot price of some coal varieties was loose, while the Mongolian coal price was stable [47][49]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased, and the production and inventory decreased [47][48]. - Demand: The coking and blast - furnace operating rates were stable, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Inventory: The overall coking - coal inventory was at a medium level, with the coal - mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: The coking - coal market was stable. There was an expectation of coal - mine production restriction in August. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [49][50]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures price decreased, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented. The port price followed the increase [51][52]. - Supply: The coke production was stable, and the coal - mine复产 was less than expected [51][52]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was supportive [52]. - Inventory: The coking - plant inventory decreased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [52]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was in short supply, but the previous bullish expectations were over - exhausted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [52]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot: On August 13, the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices increased. The soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the rapeseed meal trading volume was zero [53][54]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's August supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean planting area and ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in August were expected to increase, while the EU soybean imports from July to August 10 decreased [54][55]. - Outlook: The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed imports. The US soybean price rose, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [55]. Live Pigs - Spot: The live - pig spot price was stable, and the downstream procurement was smooth. The breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices [56]. - Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [56]. - Outlook: The current supply and demand were weak. The long - term 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly, but also pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - Spot: On August 13, the corn prices in Northeast China decreased slightly, and the prices in North China were stable. The port prices were stable or increased slightly [58]. - Fundamentals: The corn inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the inventory in the Guangdong port also decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the overall sentiment was weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. In the long term, pay attention to the new - season corn growth [59].