Group 1 - The dollar index has fallen below 100, while the 30-year Treasury yield has surged past 5%, leading to an additional $50 billion in annual interest payments [2] - The U.S. is experiencing a wave of de-dollarization, primarily driven by actions from the Trump administration, including a recent executive order imposing 100% tariffs on key exports from 23 countries [2][4] - Countries like Russia, Brazil, and Iran are increasingly using alternative currencies for trade, with 92.3% of Russia's trade with BRICS partners now settled in currencies other than the dollar [4] Group 2 - The U.S. sanctions have prompted a significant shift away from the dollar, with China selling $74 billion in U.S. Treasuries, marking a 16-year low in holdings [4] - The SPFS system in Russia, which bypasses SWIFT, is now connected to 159 countries, indicating a growing trend towards alternative payment systems [5] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped below 55%, the lowest level since 1995, signaling a decline in dollar dominance [7]

Group 1: Military Actions - Ukraine's President Zelensky reported that Russian forces launched over 420 drones and more than 20 missiles against Ukraine, resulting in 2 deaths and 15 injuries [1][5][6] - Russian defense systems intercepted and destroyed 74 Ukrainian drones, including 15 targeting Moscow, during a single night [2][7] - The conflict has seen extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, including kindergartens and residential buildings [7] Group 2: Negotiation Developments - A third round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is expected to take place in Istanbul, Turkey, this week [4][9] - Zelensky emphasized the need to accelerate negotiations and indicated that Ukraine is prepared for high-level talks [11] - Communication regarding prisoner exchanges is ongoing, with Ukraine committed to previous agreements made during earlier negotiations [12] Group 3: Sanctions Against Russia - Over 30,159 sanctions have been imposed on Russia by various countries, with more than 92% of these measures introduced after late February 2022 [16][17] - The United States has implemented the highest proportion of sanctions at 24.5%, followed by Canada and Switzerland [17] - Recent sanctions by the EU aim to target key sectors such as banking, energy, and military industries, with a focus on limiting Russia's financial capabilities [19][20]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight increase in economic activity from late May to early July, but high uncertainty persists, leading businesses to remain cautious [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest annual growth since September of the previous year [1] Inflation and Price Trends - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May, the highest level since January 2024 [3] - The core CPI in the UK also increased from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June, driven by rising prices in fuel, air travel, and food [3] Central Bank Activities - The World Gold Council reports that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are purchasing gold directly from local miners using their own currencies, indicating a growing appetite for gold [2] - Four additional central banks are considering adopting this practice, reflecting a shift in gold procurement strategies [2] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 231.49 points to close at 44,254.78, a gain of 0.53% [4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 19.94 points to 6,263.7, up 0.32%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 52.69 points to close at 20,730.49, a rise of 0.25% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.52% to $3,354.20 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.04% to $38.13 per ounce [5] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery fell by $0.14 to $66.38 per barrel, a decrease of 0.21% [5] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.23%, closing at 98.392 [5] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1776 against the U.S. dollar, down 42 basis points from the previous trading day [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for July have been dashed, with the upcoming CPI data becoming a critical factor in determining future rate cuts [1] - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased production, leading to a tug-of-war in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia ramping up production while U.S. output declines [1] - The dynamics of oil prices are shifting, raising questions about which entity will dominate the market direction, highlighting the need for strategic approaches to capitalize on price fluctuations [1]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is marked by significant central bank activities, with major central banks, including the Bank of England, releasing financial stability reports and engaging in monetary policy discussions [1][7] - The U.S. stock market showed positive momentum, with the Dow Jones increasing by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.48%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72% over the past week [1] - The upcoming week will see key economic indicators released, including the NFIB small business optimism index and initial jobless claims data, amidst ongoing scrutiny of U.S. Treasury auctions [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights into future interest rate cuts, with the current federal funds rate maintained at 4.25% to 4.50% [3] - Market expectations for a July rate cut are low, with only a 4% probability, suggesting that any potential cuts may be delayed until October [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly related to tariffs, continues to influence the Fed's policy outlook [3] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.43% to $66.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.22% to $68.28 per barrel [6] - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by nearly 550,000 barrels per day starting in August, which may impact global oil supply dynamics [6] - Gold prices have risen by 2.05% to $3,335.24 per ounce, driven by a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to trade uncertainties [6] Group 4: UK Economic Developments - The Bank of England is set to release its Financial Stability Report, with concerns about the labor market and potential risks to the UK economy highlighted by committee members [7] - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility will publish a report focusing on fiscal risks, particularly regarding climate change and public finances [7] - Key economic data releases for the UK include GDP and industrial output figures, following a contraction of 0.3% in April [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the forecast for the next Fed rate cut to September from December, suggesting a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that disinflationary pressures are emerging, with expectations that tariffs will have only a one-time effect on price levels. The labor market remains healthy, but job finding has become more challenging [1]. - The report anticipates two additional 25 basis point cuts in interest rates later in the year, with a terminal rate forecast of 3-3.25% [1]. - The market is beginning to price in faster Fed easing, which could lead to a weaker Dollar and higher gold prices, benefiting equities depending on the growth backdrop [2]. Summary by Sections Earlier Fed Cuts - The forecast for the next Fed rate cut has been moved to September, with expectations of two more cuts in October and December [1]. - The terminal rate is now expected to be between 3-3.25%, down from a previous range of 3.5-3.75% [1]. US and UK Fiscal Policy - The report discusses the potential impact of the Trump Administration's fiscal policy, particularly the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which may enhance foreign investment appetite in the US [8]. - UK fiscal policy is also under scrutiny due to recent selloffs in Gilts, indicating a need for close monitoring [8]. Q2 Earnings Season - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is expected to show S&P 500 firms beating consensus estimates, with insights into how companies are adapting to higher tariffs [8]. - It is assumed that US consumers will absorb 70% of the direct costs of tariffs, but lower pass-through rates could pose risks to corporate margins [8]. Commodities Outlook - Oil markets are pricing a low probability of major supply disruptions, with expectations of falling oil prices due to strong supply growth [8]. - Conversely, gold prices are expected to rise due to increased central bank demand, and US copper prices may also see significant upside due to potential tariffs [8]. SLR Reform - The Fed's supplementary leverage ratio reform is anticipated to benefit banks by providing more flexibility for short-term secured financing and potentially increasing Treasury purchases during stress periods [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Eurasian Development Bank's report predicts that the Russian economy will maintain a high growth level in 2025, but risks in the energy export sector cannot be ignored [1] Economic Characteristics - Economic Cooling: In Q1 2025, Russia's GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year, a decline from 4.3% in 2024, marking the lowest growth in the past seven quarters. Industrial production remains the main driver of GDP growth, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] - Domestic Demand Slowdown: Retail, catering, and service sectors saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in total turnover in Q1 2025, down from 6.5% in 2024. The unemployment rate stood at 2.3%, maintaining historical lows. However, high-interest rates have shifted consumer behavior towards saving, leading to a slowdown in consumption and investment activities [2] - Ruble Appreciation: The ruble appreciated over 20% against the dollar from December 2024 to May 2025, reaching its highest level since the second half of 2023. This appreciation is attributed to high-interest monetary policy and improved geopolitical expectations, although it negatively impacts exports and budget revenues [2] Economic Forecast - GDP Growth: The bank forecasts a 2% GDP growth for Russia in 2025, slightly lower than previous predictions, primarily due to weak economic performance in Q1. High-interest rates will continue to limit consumption and investment, while declining global market demand will negatively affect exports [3] - Inflation Outlook: The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to slow to 7.5% in 2025, but persistent high inflation expectations and budget spending will likely keep inflation above the central bank's target [3] - Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance to gradually reduce inflation, with the key interest rate projected to drop to around 18% by the end of 2025 and further to about 10% by the end of 2027 [3] Currency Exchange Rate - Ruble Exchange Rate: The average exchange rate for USD to RUB in 2025 is projected to be 90. High-interest rates will support the ruble, but falling oil prices and reduced exports may create conditions for ruble depreciation in the second half of the year [4] Risks - Major Risks: The main risks to the Russian economy over the next three years include a significant and sustained drop in oil prices, which could lead to reduced export revenues and increased budget deficits. The government may need to seek additional financing sources through domestic financial markets to cover budget expenditures [4]

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing an optimistic wave driven by policy expectations, particularly regarding the unclear "trade understanding" between the US and China and strong bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The recent statement by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirming a formal agreement including rare earth transportation, is seen as a positive signal for easing trade tensions, although the specifics of the agreement remain highly opaque [2] - The upcoming deadline of July 9 for the US to implement reciprocal tariffs on other trade partners adds a layer of risk, particularly for countries like India, Japan, and the EU that have not yet reached agreements [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are a significant pillar supporting current market sentiment, with recent economic data indicating a slowdown, thereby increasing the likelihood of rate cuts [3] - Market speculation around the Fed's potential actions has led to the emergence of the "Fed Put" concept, suggesting that the market believes the Fed will intervene during significant economic slowdowns [3] - Political pressure from the White House is casting a shadow over the Fed's independence, adding uncertainty to future policy decisions, despite assurances from Fed officials that such pressure does not affect their communication [3] Group 3 - Global asset prices have reacted significantly to these macro narratives, with stock markets generally rising, US markets reaching new highs, and a weakening dollar aligning with rate cut expectations [5] - Oil prices have increased, reflecting market optimism regarding economic prospects, while US Treasury yields have declined, particularly at the short end, indicating pricing in of potential Fed rate cuts [5] Group 4 - Japan's economic data presents a mixed picture, with core CPI remaining above the Bank of Japan's target despite a decline, indicating accumulating inflationary pressures, while weak retail sales suggest a need for domestic demand stimulation [6] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges in balancing inflation pressures with economic momentum, with market expectations leaning towards normalization of policy, though the timing remains uncertain [6] Group 5 - The sustainability of the current market optimism largely depends on the actual progress of trade negotiations, the outcome of the July 9 deadline, and key economic data releases from major economies like the US and Japan [7] - The market is currently in a state of exuberance amidst uncertainty, highlighting the need for cautious trading strategies in response to potential unexpected developments [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic data in May was mixed, with investment and exports under pressure while consumption showed resilience. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The US economy is in good condition but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts within the Fed. The Israel - Iran conflict has an uncertain future, which may impact global asset prices. Different commodities have different outlooks based on factors such as tariffs and geopolitical events [1][2][3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. There are expectations of further fiscal measures. The US - China economic and trade consultation made new progress, and there is flexibility in the US tariff schedule [1] - **US Economy**: The Fed maintained interest rates. Powell said the US economy is in good condition, but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts among Fed officials. US retail sales in May declined, while the June Markit manufacturing and services PMIs showed expansion [2] - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: The conflict has lasted for 12 days. Although a cease - fire was announced, there are still disputes and the future is uncertain. Historically, such conflicts can impact global asset prices, including oil, stocks, and precious metals [3] - **Commodities**: For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. Agricultural products may see price increases due to tariffs. Energy prices are sensitive to Middle - East geopolitical events, with short - term fluctuations and a medium - term supply - side view of relative abundance. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - Do List - China's central bank will conduct a 3000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on June 25. Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, including a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical rise of the United States from 1865 to 1925, highlighting how it surpassed the British Empire in industrial and economic power through strategic innovations, technology absorption, and institutional support [3][28]. Group 1: Pre-Civil War Industrial Foundation - Before the Civil War, the U.S. industrial base was significantly influenced by "technology smuggling," where advanced British technologies were covertly brought to America [5][9]. - The U.S. faced legislative barriers from Britain aimed at stifling its industrial growth, similar to modern restrictions on technology transfer [5][11]. - By 1860, U.S. industrial output had surpassed France, but it still lagged behind Britain in key metrics like steel production [12]. Group 2: Post-Civil War Transformation - The Civil War (1861-1865) was pivotal in abolishing slavery, increasing the labor force, and strengthening federal power, which facilitated innovation and technology diffusion [14][15]. - Post-war, the U.S. became a "new technology digestion machine," rapidly adopting and adapting European innovations [16][20]. - By 1900, U.S. steel production had overtaken Britain's, and the country had built a vast railway network, enhancing its industrial capabilities [17][20]. Group 3: Innovation and Economic Expansion - The introduction of the assembly line by Henry Ford revolutionized production efficiency, drastically reducing costs and increasing output [22][24]. - The establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 marked a significant financial innovation, enhancing capital mobilization and supporting industrial growth [24]. - By the late 1920s, the U.S. had become a leader in various industries, with manufacturing productivity significantly higher than that of Britain [23][28]. Group 4: Factors Behind U.S. Ascendancy - Key factors contributing to the U.S. rise included institutional advantages, scale economies, a pragmatic approach to efficiency, and an open immigration policy that attracted talent [28].