A 股策略周报 20250518 ➢ 当下主题投资活跃，但力度未来很难回到一季度。2025 年 Q1 的主题行业 具备诸多条件的共振：经济基本面预期企稳向上为科技制造业提供了盈利基本 面，而主题行业本身又存在催化，甚至引领了中国资产重估的叙事。当前贸易 冲击阶段平复，但是全球经济在关税冲突前就在放缓的趋势仍未改变，未来出 口有新的扰动，中小盘成长由于对出口的暴露更高，表现波动也会明显放大； 当下贸易和谈带来的信心修复，来源恰好是中国总量供给在全球的优势，而不 是单一科技行业的突破，反而核心科技主题当下缺乏新产业催化做进一步支 撑。总结来看，2025 年 Q1 是科技突破引领市场风险偏好，而现在是市场风险 偏好修复投资者风格阶段轮动科技主题，持续性资产较弱。 ➢ 未破未立的尴尬，但新秩序，新故事一直在孕育。第一，内需消费长效机 制的逐步建立下板块具备净利润增长、股息支付和估值提升三类收益来源，推 荐家电、食品饮料、化妆品、潮玩、旅游休闲、游戏、线上零售等；详细分析 可参考前期周报《修复之后，关注变化》。第二，中国对外贸易体系重塑下部分 提前完成出清供需格局相对良好的中国优势产业的产能价值有望逐渐体现（机 械设备 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [7]. Core Views - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to positively impact metal demand, with a focus on the economic fundamentals following the tariff negotiations [1][2]. - Gold prices have fluctuated due to lower-than-expected US inflation and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential for future price recovery depending on tariff negotiations [1][36]. - The copper market is cautious due to high tariff levels, but inventory reductions provide some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory levels and positive macro sentiment following substantial progress in US-China tariff talks [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have been affected by a 2.3% year-on-year increase in the US CPI for April, which was lower than expected, leading to a decrease in gold prices [1]. - Powell's comments suggest a higher tolerance for inflation, which may lead to fluctuations in gold prices based on tariff negotiations [1][36]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to ongoing tariff concerns, but a reduction in global copper inventory to 572,000 tons provides some support [2]. - Aluminum prices are buoyed by low inventory levels, with domestic social inventory dropping below 600,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have stabilized, with carbon lithium futures rising by 1.3% to 65,000 yuan/ton, while supply pressures are expected to persist [3]. - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a 9% decrease in carbon lithium production this week [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and others in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Group 1 - China State Construction signed new contracts totaling 1.52 trillion yuan from January to April, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1] - Yongpu Medical's subsidiary obtained a medical device business license valid until May 7, 2030, allowing it to engage in medical device retail and wholesale [1] - Ningbo Maritime received a government subsidy of 4.42 million yuan, which will impact its net profit for the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 2 - Mingpu Optoelectronics obtained a patent for a magnetic powder core and its preparation method, enhancing its capabilities in magnetic materials technology [1] - Digital Zhitong plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Beijing with a registered capital of 5 million yuan [1] - Zhongmin Energy's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.28% of the company's total shares [1][6] Group 3 - Tunnel Holdings' controlling shareholder intends to increase its stake in the company by investing between 250 million to 500 million yuan [1] - China Telecom appointed Liu Guiqing as the new President and COO [1] - Datang Power completed the issuance of 3 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with proceeds aimed at repaying debt and supplementing working capital [1] Group 4 - *ST Weihai won a bid for a flood control project worth 182 million yuan, accounting for 7.35% of its audited revenue for 2024 [1] - Huijin Tong announced a cash dividend of 0.0868 yuan per share, totaling 29.44 million yuan [1] - Xinkai Energy's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by a combined total of 4% of the company's shares [1][39] Group 5 - Xinhuan Group's subsidiary won a 1.02 billion yuan nuclear power project contract [1] - Southern Airlines reported a 12.14% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for April [1] - Xinjiang Torch plans to acquire 100% equity of Yushan Litai for 125 million yuan [1]

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly released the "Corporate Sustainable Disclosure Guidelines No. 1 - Climate (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" on April 30, with a feedback deadline of May 31, 2025 [1][2] - The guidelines will include application guidelines for nine specific industries, including electricity, steel, coal, oil, fertilizer, aluminum, hydrogen, cement, and automobiles, to provide direction for the application of basic and climate guidelines [1][2] - The overall goal is to establish a unified sustainable disclosure guideline system in China by 2030, with basic and climate guidelines expected to be released by 2027 [2][3] Group 2 - The "Climate Guidelines Draft for Comments" consists of six chapters and 47 articles, maintaining high consistency with the "Basic Guidelines" in terms of objectives, disclosure targets, and technical requirements [3] - The draft aligns with international standards, particularly in disclosing climate-related risks and opportunities, and encourages companies to pursue low-carbon development [3] - Companies will have the option to voluntarily implement the guidelines before formal requirements are established [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The domestic "One Bank, One Commission, One Administration" policy slightly exceeded expectations, and the Sino - US negotiation achieved significant progress, but the current tariff level remains high, which may limit market optimism. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper remains tight, while consumption shows signs of marginal weakening, making it difficult for copper prices to continue rising in the short term [1]. - The domestic aluminum ingot is approaching its production capacity limit, and the continuous decline in short - term inventory strongly supports aluminum prices. However, due to the current seasonally weak consumption, the sustainability of demand improvement may face challenges, restricting the rebound height of aluminum prices [3]. - The port inventory of lead concentrate continues to rise, the waste inventory is limited, and the downstream battery enterprises' holiday has been extended. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term commodity sentiment is strong, and the medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. - The port inventory of zinc concentrate continues to rise, and the zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. The zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased, but the domestic warehouse receipts remain at a low level. The Russian lead - zinc mine's expected shutdown in June may boost zinc prices from an emotional perspective [6]. - The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease. The impact of tariffs on the demand side remains to be observed. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may shift downward [7][8]. - The cost of nickel is expected to ease, and the spot demand is weak. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish mindset [9]. - The short - term tariff change of lithium carbonate will bring additional orders, and the peak season is expected to continue. The futures price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream operating rates and domestic inventory changes [11]. - The supply of alumina is subject to continuous disturbances, and the new production capacity has increased uncertainty. The cost support continues to decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market shows a differentiated trend of narrow cost fluctuations and rising spot prices, with significantly improved steel mill profits. The short - term market is resilient, but the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the game between terminal recovery intensity and the off - season cycle [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9592/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 4075 to 185,575 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 41.8%. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 21,000 to 50,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it changed from a premium to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to about 250 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1680 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract today is 78,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $9500 - $9700/ton [1]. Aluminum - Yesterday, LME aluminum closed up 1.16% at $2522/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,255 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 3000 to 545,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1000 to 62,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased by 8000 to 471,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi decreased by 4000 to 93,000 tons. The spot in East China was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract today is 20,050 - 20,320 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $2480 - $2550/ton [3]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.16% at 16,937 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $9 to $1984/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 48,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 47,600 tons. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side fluctuation [4]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 1.69% at 22,605 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose by $40 to $2732.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,840 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1600 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 168,000 tons. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,300 tons. The Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices emotionally. The zinc price has rebounded slightly [6]. Tin - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 262,070 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 8179 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15 to 2775 tons. The domestic tin ore is gradually resuming production, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $30,000 - $33,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated upward. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 125,230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,800/ton, up 0.35%. The price of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron in the market continued to weaken. The expected operating range for the SHFE nickel main contract today is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $15,000 - $16,300/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 64,727 yuan, down 0.13%. The LC2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan, up 3.13%. The main contract's closing price was at a premium of 250 yuan to the MMLC average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The short - term tariff change will bring additional orders, and the futures price is likely to fluctuate. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 64,200 - 66,000 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 14, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.54% to 2941 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the 07 contract. The overseas price also increased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased to 209,800 tons. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3050 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,080 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased to 158,809 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1.113 million tons. The short - term market is resilient, and the medium - to - long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season [15].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - Precious metals and industrial metals have shown strong performance, while energy metals are under pressure [1] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2024 saw a 32% increase, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 115 percentage points [14] - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector rose by 120%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 132 percentage points, with precious metals increasing by 255% and industrial metals by 133% [14] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 2,976.948 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 2,794.166 billion yuan [2] Precious Metals - In 2024, the average price of gold was 5,594 yuan per gram, a year-on-year increase of 242%, leading to a total revenue of 2,820 billion yuan and a net profit of 1,497.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 52% increase [18] - In Q1 2025, the average gold price reached 6,722 yuan per gram, up 37% year-on-year, with revenue of 818 billion yuan and a net profit of 473.1 billion yuan, marking a 47% increase [30] Copper - The average copper price in 2024 was 75,000 yuan per ton, a 103% increase year-on-year, with total revenue of 14,452 billion yuan and a net profit of 754.81 billion yuan, a 40% increase [34] - In Q1 2025, the copper price was 77,000 yuan per ton, up 11.4% year-on-year, with revenue of 3,357 billion yuan and a net profit of 233 billion yuan, a 50% increase [48] Aluminum - In 2024, the aluminum sector saw an average price of 20,000 yuan per ton, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with total revenue of 4,207 billion yuan and a net profit of 410.28 billion yuan, a 27% increase [57] - In Q1 2025, the average aluminum price was 21,000 yuan per ton, with revenue of 1,032 billion yuan and a net profit of 109.75 billion yuan, a 29% increase [72] Lithium - The lithium sector faced significant challenges in 2024, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 65.1% year-on-year, leading to a revenue decline of 48% [77] - In Q1 2025, the lithium sector showed signs of recovery, with revenue of 126 billion yuan and a net profit of 464 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159% [91] Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - In 2024, the rare earth sector experienced a decline, with total revenue of 600 billion yuan and a net profit of 121.1 billion yuan, a 67% decrease [101] - In Q1 2025, the sector showed recovery with revenue of 145 billion yuan and a net profit of 867 million yuan, a 221% increase year-on-year [130] Institutional Holdings - In Q1 2025, the allocation ratio for the non-ferrous metal sector was 434%, with significant increases in allocations for precious and industrial metals [141]