文 ｜ 杨帆 玛西高娃 ▍ 我国对美出口贸易在省际层面呈现出东部集中、区域分化和集群支撑的三重特征 。 第一，我国对美出口高度集中于东部沿海省份，2 0 2 3年以来前五大省份贡献了7 2 . 3%的出口额，前八大省份合计贡献8 4 . 9%，其中广东和浙江 出口动能更为强劲，两者分别贡献了2 5 . 1%和1 6 . 6%。不过前五大外贸大省在面对关税2 . 0的表现，出现了分化，山东和浙江可能抢出口诉求更 强，上海和广东略靠后。出口交货值视角也基本印证上述结论，当前上海在出口交货值增速上较为疲弱。 我国分省市对美出口整体呈现出东部集中、区域分化和产业集群支撑的三重特征。其中，广东和浙江等东部沿海省份是出口主力，山西和河南等 中部省份对美出口依赖偏高。同时结合商品结构层面，我国各省市对美出口贸易呈现商品出口中心度较高、总体依赖度不高且结构多元的特征。 第一，从出口中心度来看，机电设备、纺织鞋服和家具类是支撑出口的核心品类，不同省份在这些品类上的中心度高低差异明显。第二，从对美 出口依赖度来看，大部分省市总体依赖度不高，大部分省份在主要品类上的依赖度低于5%，另外，沿海地区整体呈现出产业链多元、出口商品 类别 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the joint party day activity is "Party Building Leads to Collective Strength, Quality Home Furnishings for the People" [2] - The event involved immersive visits, practical experiences, and thematic discussions to explore the integration of home consumption quality improvement and public service upgrades [2][3] - The experience center showcased a "one-stop whole-home solution" service system, highlighting the integration of digital technology and full-chain services in home furnishing [2][4] Group 2 - Qu Mei's party members are primarily business backbones, focusing on research to meet the needs of the enterprise, employees, and consumers through party building [3] - The company aims to achieve breakthroughs from "standardization" to "personalization" and from "selling products" to "selling lifestyles" through effective learning tasks and incentive measures [3] - The joint learning activity provided a platform for both parties to exchange and learn, promoting mutual growth in the integration of party building and business [3][5] Group 3 - Qu Mei Home has 30 years of experience serving 10 million families, categorizing eight types of personalized living needs through big data algorithms [4] - The discussion highlighted common pitfalls in the renovation process and strategies to avoid them, covering areas of public concern such as environmentally friendly materials and space planning [4] - The media and enterprise party building collaboration aims to bridge policy implementation and public demand, making quality consumption tangible [4] Group 4 - The joint party building activity between the Consumer Daily and Qu Mei Home strengthens communication and cooperation between the two organizations [5] - Both parties expressed intentions to deepen cooperation and conduct more diverse and rich party building activities in the future [5] - The goal is to promote high-quality development in the home furnishing industry and meet the public's demand for a better life [5]

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.7300 yuan for 2024, an increase of 21.67% compared to 0.6000 yuan in 2023 [1] - The total revenue for 2024 was 3.47 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.77% from 3.05 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The net profit for 2024 reached 0.29 billion yuan, which is a 20.83% increase from 0.24 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 3.62% in 2024, up from 3.02% in 2023, marking a 19.87% increase [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 10.98 million shares, accounting for 42.67% of the circulating shares, with a decrease of 45.37 thousand shares compared to the previous period [1] - Notable changes among the top shareholders include a 40% reduction in holdings by Suzhou Industrial Park Shunwei Technology Venture Capital Partnership, which now holds 2.66 million shares [2] - New entrants to the top shareholders include Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. with 1.09 million shares and China Construction Bank's fund with 0.6551 million shares [2] Dividend Distribution - The company announced a dividend distribution plan of 10 shares for every 2.26 yuan (including tax) [2]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 一问：制造业链条的含"美"量？消费电子、文教体娱的直接依赖高，纺织、电气机械偏间接依赖。 出口与营收视角下，考虑直接与间接出口（上下游），消费品行业含"美"量较高，结构上文教体娱、消 费电子以直接依赖为主，而纺织业、电气机械多为间接依赖。 制造业营收对美出口依赖度有所回落，结 构上文教体娱、家具、纺织等依赖度仍高。其中文教体娱、计算机通信以直接依赖为主，分别是6.6%、 6%；纺织业、电气机械等行业考虑间接投入后整体依赖度居前列，分别9.5%、5.5%。 投资视角下，含"美"量较高的行业在制造业投资占比也较高，譬如消费电子、机械设备等行业。 2024年 含"美"量较高的行业投资占制造业投资比重为31.4%。结构上计算机通信(10.9%)、电气机械(9%)等行业 投资占比较高，且近年大幅提升。相比之下，文教体娱、家具、纺织服装等行业投资水平偏低，占制造 业投资比重的降幅也较大，期间分别回落1.3、1.1、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yazhen Home (亚振家居), announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a share transfer that may lead to a change in control, while the stock price surged prior to the announcement, raising suspicions of insider trading [1][5]. Group 1: Share Transfer and Stock Performance - On April 22, Yazhen Home disclosed that its controlling shareholder, Shanghai Yazhen Investment Co., is planning a share transfer, which may result in a change of control [1]. - Before the announcement, from April 8 to April 17, Yazhen Home's stock price increased by 48.61%, leading to market speculation about potential insider trading [5]. - The stock price reached a closing price of 6.94 yuan on the last trading day before the suspension [1]. Group 2: Previous Attempts at Control Change - This is not the first time Yazhen Home has attempted to change its control; a similar attempt was made in November 2024, which ultimately failed due to disagreements between the controlling shareholder and the potential buyer [6]. - The company has previously sought control changes through acquisitions, including a failed attempt to acquire a 65% stake in Jiangsu New Product Aluminum Co. in 2018 and a proposed acquisition of Lianyungang Jingmei Smart Home Co. in 2020, which was also abandoned due to market conditions [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Yazhen Home has faced financial difficulties, with net profit only increasing in 2020 by 113.42%, while experiencing declines in other years, resulting in total losses of nearly 500 million yuan over five years [8]. - The company was under delisting risk warning due to consecutive years of negative net profit in 2018 and 2019, but managed to remove this warning in 2020 thanks to government subsidies [8]. - For 2024, Yazhen Home anticipates a net loss between 118 million yuan and 96 million yuan, with projected revenue between 190 million yuan and 220 million yuan [8][10]. Group 4: Business Transformation Efforts - Established in 1992, Yazhen Home is one of the earliest manufacturers of European-style furniture in China, primarily focusing on mid-to-high-end products [11]. - The company has attempted to adapt to market trends by expanding into custom furniture, but this has not significantly impacted revenue [12]. - Previous attempts at business transformation through acquisitions have not been successful, indicating ongoing challenges in adapting to market demands [12].

| 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 | | --- | | 联系人： | | 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 | 出口→营收：关税落地令加征行业出口走弱，营收同步回落，结构上家具、轻工纺服等行业营收对出口 回落的敏感性较高。 上一轮贸易摩擦的实质性冲击于2018年9月开始，加征行业出口交货值超额回落 10.4pct，拖累实际营收增速下滑3.9pct，降幅均超过未加征行业。结构上家具、纺织服装等行业营收受对 美出口的影响较大，关税落地后分别拖累实际营收增速回落0.4、0.9pct。 营收→利润：加征行业利润回落幅度超过营收，主因利润率"超额"下行，但并非行业主动降价。 关税冲 击后，加征行业的利润率同比增量有更大幅度下滑（-1pct），导致利润增速回落幅度(-13.7pct)超过营收 (-4.7pct)。从影响因素看，利润率回落并非加征行业降低出口价格，数据上加征关税行业的出口价格指数 走势与未加征行业保持一致，反而是美国进口价格涨幅接近关税税率涨幅。 利润率"超额"下滑的主因是刚性成本约束，加征行业固定资产周转率下行的同时，成本率与销售费用率 被动抬升。 关税落地后加征行业固定资产周转率下行，自2018年9月2.62降至2 ...

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

我明确给了大家一则箴言：保持定力，坚守能力圈，放眼长期。什么意思呢？就是希望大家不要在这种 行情中迷失了自我，忘记了自己的初心。这是非常可悲的。 换算过来，就是不要频繁交易，这山望着那山高。否则，你铁定挨打，而且受伤程度还不轻。 上周，因为贸易摩擦等因素的影响，A股出现了大落小起的走势，很多人倒霉，也有人开心。 上周二、三慢慢进场之后，我的内心十分平静，并且告诉大家，耐心等待种子变大即可，不要慌里慌张 的。 连续几天都是笑哈哈！ 板块上： 第一：内循环板块持续上涨 今天打开软件，整车、家具、零售、自贸区等内循环板块持续上攻，对于国际贸易摩擦开始免疫了。 指数虽然大涨，但银行、证券涨了个寂寞，尤其是证券，明明是风向标板块，却搞成了反面教材。 人只有坚守自己的能力圈，赚自己看得懂的钱才能够持久。但上周的大幅波动，对于绝大多数散户来 说，就是致命的诱惑。 倘若你无法坚守自己的能力圈，那么被揍只是早晚的事情。 周末多个巨头也发布了协助外贸企业转内销的重大利好消息，助力经济转型。这都是前所有为的动作， 也是对经济的利好。 不过，我认为本质还是提高大家的收入，让大家有足够的实力消费。 第二：银行证券不是很给力 最后再重复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's new tariff policies, highlighting the potential for increased trade tensions and their impact on global supply chains and economies [2][3][10]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Their Nature - Trump's tariffs are characterized as a political weapon rather than a mere economic tool, aiming to reshape global trade rules through unilateral actions [3][4]. - The tariffs imposed on China could reach a staggering 34%, significantly affecting trade dynamics and economic relations [2][4]. - The overall tariff levels for U.S. imports could rise to between 54% and 64%, surpassing previous expectations and indicating a more aggressive stance compared to past trade conflicts [8][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Reactions - The expected annual revenue from the tariffs could range from $349.9 billion to $503.5 billion, indicating a significant financial motive behind the policy [13]. - The tariffs are likely to have a detrimental effect on the U.S. economy, potentially reducing GDP by 0.2% to 1.5% and causing a decline in household incomes [15][19]. - China's export trade is expected to face substantial pressure, with the average tariff level reaching unprecedented heights, which may lead to a short-term economic slowdown [16][22]. Group 3: Strategic Implications and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current trade conflict may signal the end of the third era of globalization, with long-term implications for global economic structures [10][19]. - The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, leading to a spiral of escalating tariffs [9][10]. - The article emphasizes the need for strategic adjustments in response to these developments, advocating for a focus on domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency as pathways to resilience [24][27].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - FGI reported total revenue of $35.6 million in the fourth quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 15% [8][16] - Gross profit was $8.7 million, a decrease of 3.2% compared to the prior year, with gross margin declining to 24.6% from 29.2%, a drop of 460 basis points [8][16] - Operating expenses increased by 28.4% to $10 million from $7.8 million in the prior year, primarily due to investments in growth initiatives [17] - GAAP operating income was negative $1.3 million in the quarter, down from a positive $1.2 million in the prior year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bath Furniture revenue increased by 40.2% year over year, driven by market-aligned pricing and new business wins [10] - Shower Systems business reported a revenue increase of 17%, supported by new customer programs and order growth [11] - Covered Bridge revenue in custom kitchen cabinetry increased by 68.3% due to order momentum and expanded geographies [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue grew by 14.7% in the US, 9.9% in Canada, and 23.3% in Europe during the quarter [10] - Sanofi revenue increased by 5.8% year over year in the fourth quarter [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth initiatives across brands, products, and channels, referred to as the BPC strategy [7] - Geographic expansion in Europe and India is seen as a significant growth driver for upcoming quarters [12] - The company is actively working to diversify sourcing in response to the increasing tariff environment [13][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The industry outlook is relatively flat, with minimal growth expected in 2025, but the company anticipates outpacing the market through its BPC strategy [9][27] - Management expressed confidence in new programs and business wins to drive growth despite a flat market [50][55] - Tariff pressures are acknowledged as a significant factor impacting the business outlook, with management taking a conservative approach in guidance [35][36] Other Important Information - The company has $15.6 million in total liquidity, deemed sufficient to fund growth initiatives [18] - Initial 2025 revenue guidance is set between $135 million and $145 million, with adjusted operating income guidance ranging from negative $2 million to positive $1.5 million [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on the business - Management is working closely with suppliers and customers to mitigate tariff impacts and is diversifying sourcing to navigate the situation [22][24][25] Question: Outlook for operating income - The guidance includes tariff pressures, with a conservative approach taken due to the fluid nature of the situation [33][35] Question: Pricing strategies in response to tariffs - The company adjusts pricing as necessary and works with customers on timing and inventory mix to manage tariff costs [39][41] Question: Sourcing adjustments due to tariffs - The company is actively diversifying sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, with ongoing adjustments being made [44][45] Question: Risks and upside in the R&R market - The overall R&R market outlook remains flat, but new programs and business wins are expected to buffer against this [49][50]