Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher. The divergence within the Fed and the Trump administration's interference with Fed policies may be a major market concern. Domestically, the central bank governor stated that there would be no short - term policy adjustments, and China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons to 288,746 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.45 million tons. Downstream demand is weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. After the Fed's meeting, copper prices remain cautious due to potential market避险情绪 and overseas macro risks during the holiday [1]. Aluminum - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina plants' continuous resumption of production increases social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production and ore shipments have decreased, causing ore inventories to decline. Although alumina is generally bearish, it has basically bottomed out. Aluminum ingots have not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. As the double festivals approach, downstream industries are in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years. Aluminum prices remain strong, scrap aluminum prices are firm, and the aluminum alloy market continues to trade at high levels [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.46% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19%. LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons to 228,900 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons. Nickel ore prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel weekly inventories decreased significantly, and the cost support from nickel - iron prices has strengthened, but supply has also increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may remain relatively tight due to cobalt policies. The combination of macro factors and rising nickel - iron and MHP prices may slightly lift the bottom of nickel prices, but inventories remain a resistance to price increases [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 240 yuan/ton to 80,190 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 150 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons, and domestic + bonded area social inventories decreased by 0.3 million tons to 21.7 million tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 10 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged. The price of Shanxi low - grade bauxite and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventories remained unchanged, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained at 0.0 million tons, while the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.3 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 1,125 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums increased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 14.46 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the SMM spot price increased by 2,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 1,800 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE tin decreased by 909 tons [6]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. Social Inventory - Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. Smelting Profit - Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper rough - smelting processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, the progress of interest rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. Different metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME copper closed up 0.06% at $10,002/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons compared to last Thursday, and the spot premium in different regions showed different trends. The refined - scrap spread narrowed to 1,870 yuan/ton [3]. - **策略观点**: Although the Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, if the interest rate cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly affected. Copper raw material supply remains tight. With the approaching of the long holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME aluminum closed down 0.78% at $2,655/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE weighted contract decreased by 14,000 to 511,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 71,000 tons. Domestic mainstream area aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Aluminum bar processing fees fluctuated up, but actual transactions were average. The spot in the East China region remained at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged [4]. - **策略观点**: The downstream peak season characteristics of aluminum are not obvious, but as prices fall, aluminum bar processing fees rise again. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below. Short - term prices may repair upwards [5]. Lead - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.10% at 17,155 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $14 to $1,997/ton. Domestic and overseas lead inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [7]. - **策略观点**: On the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has decreased again, suppressing smelting start - ups. On the secondary side, scrap prices have declined, and smelting profits have recovered, with a slight increase in start - ups. Downstream battery enterprises' start - ups are higher than in previous years, and purchases have increased slightly. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [8]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% at 22,092 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $6 to $2,913/ton. Domestic and overseas zinc inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 157,000 tons [9]. - **策略观点**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low SHFE - LME ratio. The surplus of zinc ore has eased. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the accumulation trend, while overseas LME zinc inventory continues to decline. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector has cooled. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be weak in the short term [10]. Tin - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 272,510 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons to 6,600 tons. Spot and upstream tin prices rose. Supply is tight due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and enterprise maintenance. It is expected that domestic refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Demand in the new energy and AI sectors is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are still weak. With the arrival of the peak season, downstream consumption is expected to improve marginally [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is approaching, the quantity is still to be observed. With the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices are difficult to fall in the short term and will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [12]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products showed different trends [14]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, although nickel iron prices are strong, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long term, the Fed's easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index was 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,420 yuan, down 0.73%. In August 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports increased by 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year [18]. - **策略观点**: The commodity index fluctuated downwards, and lithium prices may continue to be under pressure. However, in the peak - demand season, domestic inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in a tight state, providing strong support for lithium prices. Both long and short funds are cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to resource supply and demand expectations. The reference range for the GFE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71,200 - 74,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.64% to 2,935 yuan/ton. The position increased by 11,000 to 436,000 lots. The domestic and overseas spot prices and import profit and loss information are provided. The futures warehouse receipt increased by 0.18 tons to 152,200 tons, and the prices of bauxite remained stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Bauxite prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus situation. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's bauxite policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,910 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The prices of raw materials such as nickel iron and scrap steel showed different trends. Futures inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.51% to 987,100 tons [24]. - **策略观点**: Indonesia's policy has limited impact on stainless steel. Domestic leading steel mills have strong price - support intentions, and the physical inventory in Foshan is low, providing strong support for prices. However, consumer demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. The position and trading volume decreased. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices and imported ADC12 prices decreased, and downstream purchases were on - demand. Domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **策略观点**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. With the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure is emerging, and prices are under pressure above. The support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [28].

Group 1 - The company primarily produces cathode copper, with by-products including gold, silver, and industrial sulfuric acid [2] - The company also recovers rare metals such as molybdenum, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium [2] - The high-quality cathode copper and the recovered precious and rare metals are essential materials for downstream industries such as telecommunications, new energy batteries, and electronic components [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper announced its production plan for 2025, aiming to enhance investment value through achieving operational goals [2] Production Targets - The company plans to produce 54,600 tons of copper concentrate, 1,520,000 tons of electrolytic copper, 16 tons of gold, 680 tons of silver, and 5,364,000 tons of sulfuric acid in 2025 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints provided; the report mainly presents daily data on non - ferrous and precious metals Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold (AU) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 846.50 yuan/gram, the closing price of SHFE gold near - month contract was 843.00 yuan/gram, the closing price of COMEX gold main contract was 308.70 US dollars/ounce, and the closing price of COMEX gold near - month contract was 319.10 US dollars/ounce [1] - The London gold spot price was 3660.50 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE gold spot price was - 0.97 yuan/gram [1] - The domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) was - 2.01 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 90.80 US dollars/ounce [1] Silver (AG) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 10317 yuan/kilogram, the closing price of SHFE silver near - month contract was 10283 yuan/kilogram, the closing price of COMEX silver main contract was 1.27 US dollars/ounce, and the closing price of COMEX silver near - month contract was 1.33 US dollars/ounce [1] - The London silver spot price was 42.24 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE silver spot price was 129 yuan/kilogram [1] - The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was - 3 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was 0.27 US dollars/ounce [1] Copper (CU, BC) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE copper (CU) main contract was 80160 yuan/ton, the closing price of SHFE copper (CU) continuous contract was 80190 yuan/ton, the closing price of international copper (BC) main contract was 260 yuan/ton, and the closing price of international copper (BC) continuous contract was 71070 yuan/ton [1] - The LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 17.00 US dollars/ton, and the COMEX copper main contract price was 0.03 US dollars/pound [1] - The SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was 30 yuan/ton, and the international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was - 150.00 yuan/ton [1] - The LME copper 0 - 3 premium/discount was 13.48 US dollars/ton, and the SMM1 electrolytic copper price was - 20 yuan/ton [1] - The SHFE copper warehouse receipt inventory was 29893 tons, and the international copper warehouse receipt inventory was - 25 tons [1] - The copper spot import profit and loss was - 114.76 yuan/ton, and the copper 3M import profit and loss was - 240.82 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) main contract was 20745 yuan/ton, the closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) continuous contract was - 175 yuan/ton, the closing price of alumina (AO) main contract was - 19 yuan/ton, and the closing price of alumina (AO) continuous contract was 2912 yuan/ton [1] - The LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was - 20.00 US dollars/ton, and the COMEX aluminum main contract closing price was 2619.75 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was 20 yuan/ton, and the alumina - aluminum monthly spread (A000 - A001) was 2 yuan/ton [1] - The LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium/discount was 7 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was - 4324 tons, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory was - 904 tons [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 130.26 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum 3M import profit and loss was - 168.29 yuan/ton [1] - The alumina plant profit was - 206.89 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum plant smelting profit was 4414.71 yuan/ton [1] Zinc (ZN) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) main contract was 22090 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) continuous contract was 35 yuan/ton [1] - The LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 2913 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 0 - 3 premium/discount was 13.64 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 2523 tons, and the LME zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 46825 tons [1] - The refined zinc spot import profit and loss was 248.19 yuan/ton, and the refined zinc 3M import profit and loss was - 2394.02 yuan/ton [1] - The refined zinc plant smelting profit was - 114.00 yuan/ton [1] Lead (PB) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE lead (PB) main contract was - 25 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE lead (PB) continuous contract was - 25 yuan/ton [1] - The LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was - 18.00 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was - 20 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 0 - 3 premium/discount was 0.33 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory was - 2932 tons, and the LME lead warehouse receipt inventory was 221675 tons [1] - The refined lead spot import profit and loss was - 28.98 yuan/ton, and the refined lead 3M import profit and loss was 229.61 yuan/ton [1] - The recycled lead plant smelting profit was - 120.30 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) main contract was 121400 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) continuous contract was - 100 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of stainless steel (SS) main contract was 50 yuan/ton, and the closing price of stainless steel (SS) continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton [1] - The LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was - 175 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 80 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was 35 yuan/ton [1] - The LME nickel 0 - 3 premium/discount was - 190 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt inventory was - 307 tons, and the stainless steel warehouse receipt inventory was - 769 tons [1] - The refined nickel spot import profit and loss was - 129.10 yuan/ton, and the refined nickel 3M import profit and loss was - 79.83 yuan/ton [1] Tin (SN) - On September 22, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin (SN) main contract was 272510 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE tin (SN) continuous contract was 2940 yuan/ton [1] - The LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 34440 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE tin monthly spread (SNOO - SN01) was - 290 yuan/ton, and the LME tin 0 - 3 premium/discount was 22 US dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory was 42 tons, and the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was 2505 tons [1] - The refined tin spot import profit and loss was 1528.60 yuan/ton, and the tin ore processing fee was 12000 yuan/ton [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][13][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts has materialized, leading to a slight decline in metal prices. The macroeconomic environment appears favorable, with signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector [7][13][47]. - The industrial metal prices have shown a general decline, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [5][27]. - The report emphasizes that the basic metals sector is experiencing a seasonal recovery, particularly in aluminum and copper, despite some pressures on prices and demand [11][48]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has declined, with the non-ferrous metal sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.30% [20][24]. - The non-ferrous metal index closed at 6522.39 points, down 4.02% week-on-week, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.71 percentage points [6][20]. Macroeconomic Factors - China's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year in August, down from 5.7% previously, with non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling showing a growth of 9.1% [8][37]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, aimed at addressing weak employment and inflation pressures [7][41]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 26.10 in September, indicating improved economic outlook [9][45]. - The global manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in August, rising to 50.9, the largest increase since June 2024 [10][47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained production capacity at 44.085 million tons, with a weekly production of 845,500 tons. The current aluminum price is 20,840 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 1.00% [11][50]. - **Alumina**: The market remains oversupplied, with spot prices continuing to decline. The current alumina price is 3,033 CNY/ton, down 1.30% [13][14]. - **Copper**: Supply remains stable, but demand is weak, leading to global inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic copper production is 238,000 tons, with a slight year-on-year increase [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Processing fees have risen, but domestic inventories continue to accumulate, with a weekly production of 129,600 tons [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting that the seasonal recovery in basic metals, particularly in copper and aluminum, is expected to strengthen prices despite current fluctuations [13][17][48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The copper fundamentals remained resilient, with downstream开工 increasing month - on - month. Consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to July. The downstream开工 improved, and inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated downward this week. The supply side had mixed trends, and demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced some production resistance overseas. Hold short positions and take partial profits on internal - external long arbitrage [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals were weak, but the macro - level policies brought positive sentiment. The Indonesian policy had some price - supporting actions [6]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals were generally weak, with short - term macro - level following the anti - involution expectations, and the Indonesian policy had price - supporting motives [6]. - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was expected to be flat, demand improved slightly but inventory was at a high level. Next week, lead prices were expected to fluctuate significantly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan [8]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. The domestic and overseas supply was expected to improve marginally after October. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and short lightly above 275,000 yuan/ton [11]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the long - term price was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [15]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuated strongly. The supply was in an expansion cycle, but there were supply - side disturbances. The price had high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance hype landed [17]. Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. Before the interest - rate meeting, the market's profit - taking sentiment led to a decline in copper prices. The downstream开工 increased month - on - month, and the scrap - refined substitution effect weakened. The internal - external long arbitrage had space, and copper was driven by the global fiscal and monetary double - loosening [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to July. The downstream开工 improved, with stable photovoltaic module production schedules, but overseas demand declined significantly. Inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated downward. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased significantly. The demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced production resistance overseas. The LME inventory decreased, and the internal - external pattern might further differentiate. Hold short positions and take partial profits on internal - external long arbitrage [5]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak, and inventory increased both at home and abroad. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but the macro - level policies brought positive sentiment, and the Indonesian policy had price - supporting actions [6]. Stainless Steel - The steel mills were expected to resume production slightly. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. The cost of nickel - iron remained stable, and that of chrome - iron increased slightly. Inventory decreased in Xifu areas, and the overall fundamentals were weak [6]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was expected to be flat, with low -开工 of recycled lead. Demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. Next week, lead prices were expected to fluctuate significantly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan [8]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. The domestic smelters reduced production, and overseas supply was expected to recover after September. Demand was mainly supported by rigidity, and the LME inventory rebounded from a low level. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and short lightly above 275,000 yuan/ton [11]. Industrial Silicon - The Xinjiang leading enterprises remained stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan was stable. The short - term supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the long - term price was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [15]. Carbonate Lithium - This week, carbonate lithium prices fluctuated strongly. The raw - material suppliers had strong price - holding intentions, and the lithium - salt procurement was supported by pre - holiday stocking. The supply was in an expansion cycle, but there were supply - side disturbances, and the price had high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance hype landed [17].

有色金属日报 2025-9-22 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 周五伦铜收涨 0.51%至 9996 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收 80080 元/吨，美联储降息预期犹存，铜价有 所修复。周五 LME 铜库存减少 1225 至 147650 吨，注销仓单比例反弹，Cash/3M 贴水 64.9 美元/吨。 国内上期所铜仓单减少 0.1 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the fluctuations in prices and production levels of various metals, including lithium, copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earth elements, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy changes [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Lithium and Cobalt - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.69% to 73,100 yuan/ton, while the average price of lithium hydroxide fell by 0.93% to 79,000 yuan/ton. The total production of lithium carbonate increased to 20,400 tons, up by 400 tons week-on-week [1][6]. - The price of cobalt increased by 0.7% to 275,000 yuan/ton, with cobalt intermediate prices rising by 2.3% to $14.45 per pound [6]. Group 2: Copper - LME copper prices fell by 0.68% to $9,996.50/ton, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.42% to 79,900 yuan/ton. The weekly copper inventory in major regions decreased by 5,300 tons to 148,900 tons due to reduced imports and domestic supply [2]. - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.49%, a week-on-week increase of 2.96%, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling [2]. Group 3: Aluminum - LME aluminum prices dropped by 0.93% to $2,676.00/ton, and Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 1.54% to 20,800 yuan/ton. Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons week-on-week [3]. - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 62.2%, although it still showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [3]. Group 4: Gold - COMEX gold prices remained unchanged at $3,719.40/oz, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.75 tons to 994.56 tons. The market is experiencing volatility due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [4][5]. Group 5: Rare Earths and Antimony - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide have started to recover, attributed to the implementation of new regulations and supply chain improvements. The export volume of magnetic materials surged in July, indicating potential for further price increases [5]. - Antimony demand is expected to rise due to new certification requirements for flame-retardant cables, alongside a global supply decline [5].