Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is predominantly bearish, with soda ash futures experiencing a significant decline, reaching a low of 1249.00 yuan/ton and a drop of approximately 5.10% [1] - The current market sentiment for soda ash is influenced by macroeconomic factors, leading to potential volatility in the short term, while the fundamental outlook remains bearish due to high supply and weak demand [1] - The industry is facing challenges such as increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, which are unlikely to improve in the short term, suggesting a likely medium to long-term price fluctuation [2] Group 2 - The soda ash market is affected by ongoing production costs, with expectations of a decrease in costs by the end of 2024, while raw salt and thermal coal prices remain high, providing some support near the cost line [2] - The supply side is characterized by narrow fluctuations, with ongoing maintenance expected to impact production, while the demand for heavy soda ash is decreasing due to losses in the photovoltaic glass sector [1][2] - The market requires close monitoring of raw material price fluctuations and the implementation of policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity, which will affect supply adjustments and inventory digestion [1]

短期风险对冲只能解燃眉之急，行业真正的可持续发展仍需依赖基本面的实质性改善。 当前政策预期为市场注入短期情绪动力，但要实现从"预期回暖"到"实质反转"的跨越，还需三大支撑： 政策细则的精准落地，包括老旧装置退出清单的明确、环保技改补贴的兑现；下游需求的企稳回升，既 需要房地产竣工面积的实际增长，也依赖光伏装机规模的持续扩大；产能结构的深度优化，推动高成本 产能加速出清与天然碱法替代进程。 王铭之表示，市场终将回归理性，能穿越周期的永远是务实者。"在行业洗牌中脱颖而出的企业，往往 是那些在狂热时保持冷静、在悲观时提前布局的市场主体。"他说。 "反内卷"政策为玻璃、纯碱市场注入的并非简单的价格上涨动力，而是倒逼产业升级的转型契机。这轮 由政策预期推动的市场行情，既暴露了行业长期存在的供需失衡、产能结构僵化等深层问题，也推动企 业在波动中探索更理性的生存法则。在政策预期与市场现实的持续博弈中，玻璃、纯碱企业正从短期风 险管理到长期产业转型，逐步勾勒出"反内卷"背景下的破局路径。 政策暖风下的市场波动，让风险管理成为企业生存的"必修课"。调研中期货日报记者发现，利用期货期 权等工具管理风险已成为行业共识，为企业筑起了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market expectations of glass and soda ash are fluctuating, with intensified intraday volatility. The long - term supply - demand of glass remains relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction. For soda ash, there is a risk of increased inventory pressure in the later stage [2]. - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy market has weakened, and prices are oscillating. The long - term supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains relatively loose, which suppresses enterprise profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.76%. Spot market transactions were cautious. Supply did not shrink, real - estate dragged down rigid demand, speculative demand increased, and inventory continued to decline but remained high [2]. - Soda ash: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.46%. Light and heavy alkali sales prices varied, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand. Supply was at a high level and in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, capacity may further increase. The photovoltaic industry has production - cut expectations, and soda ash consumption may weaken, increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillate weakly [3]. - Soda ash: Oscillate weakly [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The main futures contract fell 0.42%. Raw material prices rose, some miners did not quote. Alloy enterprise profits improved, production increased slightly month - on - month. Iron - water production was relatively high, and demand was resilient. Due to sufficient capacity, production can quickly increase when profits improve [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The main futures contract rose 0.77%, closing at 6008 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased. Downstream procurement willingness was low. Supply increased month - on - month, warehouse receipts were relatively high, enterprise profits improved significantly, but long - term supply - demand remained loose, suppressing profits [4]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillate weakly [5]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillate weakly [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the recent "anti-involution" policies are beneficial in curbing low-level repetitive construction in the chemical industry and are actively promoting a shift from homogeneous price wars to high-quality development [1][3] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its prosperity, with a focus on the revival of terminal product demand, increasing industry concentration, and investment opportunities in segments with industrial moats and potential cyclical rebounds, such as refining, ethylene, polyester filament, PVC, organic silicon, battery materials, glyphosate, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced significant pressure since 2022 due to demand contraction and supply shocks, with the CCPI continuing to decline by 5.57% from early 2025 to July 24, 2025 [2] - From January to May 2025, the revenue of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 2.10% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 4.70% [2] - The industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.90% in the second quarter of 2025, down by 1.60 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The capital expenditure in the large chemical sector has significantly declined, with the capital expenditure growth rate for the oil and petrochemical/basic chemical sectors turning negative at -6.6% and -15.0%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to reshape the petrochemical industry landscape, addressing the pressures of overcapacity and homogeneous competition [3] - Refining is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to demand downturn and electrification, with potential policy measures to reduce inefficient capacity and encourage integrated development [3] - The ethylene sector faces oversupply and competition, but controlling production and improving quality could alleviate supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 4 - In the battery materials sector, rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand has led to significant supply pressure, but "anti-involution" policies may guide healthier industry development [4] - The organic silicon industry is nearing the end of its capacity expansion phase, with recent supply disruptions and sustained demand growth expected to ease short-term supply pressures [4] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve the supply landscape in the soda ash sector by accelerating the exit of outdated processes and capacities [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamental aspect: The "anti-involution" sentiment has subsided. Alkali plants have fewer overhauls, and supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,300 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,311 yuan/ton, with a basis of -11 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul season is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The "anti-involution" policy sentiment has subsided [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous value. The main basis is -11 yuan, a decrease of 134.38% from the previous value [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia-alkali method is -87 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co-production method is -50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 83.02%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash. The production is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new production capacity of soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 billion tons in these three years, and the actual planned production in 2025 is 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in-production daily melting volume has significantly declined [30]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5-year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 31 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that the chemical industry, particularly segments with high loss levels, high industry concentration, high proportion of outdated capacity, and high operating rates, may serve as a breakthrough point for "anti-involution" in the chemical sector, achieving goals through the shortest path [1] Group 1: Industry Characteristics - Segments such as soda ash, spandex, dyes (including reactive and disperse dyes), coal chemicals (including DMF, caprolactam, octanol, urea, acetate, etc.), polyurethane (TDI, MDI), titanium dioxide, and organic silicon are highlighted as key areas of focus [1] - These segments meet at least two of the specified screening criteria, suggesting they are more likely to experience significant changes [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies, paying attention to operational risks [2]. - **Glass**: The probability of a correction increases. Although the glass fundamentals have improved, the terminal demand has not improved. It is recommended to short the glass on rallies, paying attention to operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices**: Soda ash main - contract closing price is 1311 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; glass main - contract closing price is 1191 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: Soda ash main - contract open interest is 864,033 hands, up 20,432 hands; glass main - contract open interest is 959,127 hands, up 76,146 hands. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 330,368, up 19,330; glass top 20 net position is - 196,422, up 24,416 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1,355 tons, up 400 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 89 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan. Soda ash basis is - 18 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan; glass basis is 4 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Soda Ash**: North China heavy - soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; Central China heavy - soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light - soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Central China light - soda ash is 1,275 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [2]. - **Glass**: Shahe glass large plates are 1,192 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; Central China glass large plates are 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Operating Rates**: Soda ash plant operating rate is 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - **Capacities and Lines**: Glass in - production capacity is 15.89 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 223, unchanged [2]. - **Inventories**: Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7836 million tons, down 81,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 61.896 million weight boxes, down 3.043 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - **Real Estate**: Real estate new - construction area cumulative value is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. Industry News - **Sino - US Trade**: China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that have been suspended and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication [2]. - **Oil Price**: The new round of oil price adjustment is stranded, and the oil price remains unchanged this round [2]. - **Macroeconomy**: From January to June, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the rectification of involution - style competition and expand industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Some self - media reports about the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry are seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [2].

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]