1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is still recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation during the third - quarter maintenance season due to supply - side accidents or macro - policies, but there is limited room for rebound under overall supply pressure. By the end of the third quarter, with the end of annual maintenance, the soda ash industry will face significant inventory pressure, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies, but with light positions due to relatively low absolute prices [2][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash futures price rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down. Pre - holiday stocking in January improved enterprise orders, but price dropped after the holiday due to inventory accumulation. In late February, the price rose on maintenance expectations, then fell again in March due to poor downstream demand. In April, the market showed a negative feedback loop with an enlarged price decline. In May, increased maintenance led to a limited price rebound, and in June, new production capacity and reduced maintenance increased supply pressure and pushed the price down again [6]. - The basis of soda ash strengthened slightly in H1 2025 as the futures price dropped more than the spot price. The registered warehouse receipts of soda ash showed seasonal changes, with an absolute quantity higher than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread can be seasonally focused on before the 09 contract delivery [9]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - In 2025, new production capacity has been added, including Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali Industry, and Hubei Shuanghuan. Future planned capacity includes Yuanxing Phase 2 and Xindu Chemical. The industry supply is still expanding, and there are long - term investment plans [12]. - The maintenance rhythm in 2025 is similar to last year. Maintenance in March and May led to a decline in production, but overall production remained high due to increased total capacity. In June, production was expected to continue increasing. The overall start - up rate in 2025 decreased slightly compared to last year, but the monthly average production exceeded 3 million tons. In July - August, the traditional maintenance season, the industry start - up rate will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the load reduction of existing capacity under low - profit conditions in the second half of the year [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Float Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased. As of June 30, it was 157,800 tons, and the glass production was 28.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. The glass market was in a pattern of inventory accumulation and price decline. With the current real - estate data, the construction side of the real - estate industry is unlikely to improve glass demand in the second half of the year. The new and cold - repaired production capacities of glass are expected to offset each other, but if demand remains weak, cold - repair willingness will increase. The rigid demand for soda ash from float glass may decrease slightly in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the possibility of glass factories restocking at low soda ash prices [26]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, but it was still lower than the same period last year. As of June 30, the daily melting volume was 94,000 tons, an increase of 10,250 tons from the beginning of the year. The downstream component factories' rush - to - install behavior in March increased the purchase of photovoltaic glass, but the new ignition speed slowed down later. In June, the daily melting volume began to decline marginally, and leading enterprises planned to cut production in July. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year, and the daily melting volume at the end of the year may return to 83,000 - 85,000 tons or lower. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease year - on - year [34][36]. - **Light Soda Ash**: The downstream of light soda ash is scattered, mainly small factories, with obvious seasonal start - up characteristics. The demand is generally related to economic development, and the actual stocking sentiment is affected by price fluctuations. In the first half of 2025, the light soda ash market performed slightly better than the heavy soda ash market. In the long - term, with the expected macro - economic recovery, the demand for light soda ash may be boosted, but the overall increase may be limited [41]. - **Exports and Imports**: In the first half of 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, with a cumulative import volume of 16,100 tons from January to May, a decrease of 97.7%. Exports increased significantly, with a cumulative export volume of 835,600 tons from January to May, an increase of 453,300 tons or 118.6%. Exports are mainly concentrated in Asian regions. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain low, and exports are expected to remain relatively high, with a significant year - on - year increase for the whole year [47][48]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories increased significantly. As of June 30, the inventory was 1.7688 million tons, a significant increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of middle and downstream is also not low. The inventory in delivery warehouses was about 230,000 tons at the beginning of July, and the inventory days of downstream glass factories were about 22 days, about 29 days including in - transit inventory. The soda ash industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year, with a limited accumulation rate in July - August due to maintenance and possible downstream restocking, but significant inventory pressure after the third quarter [50][51]. 3.5 Cost - profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, although the spot price of soda ash declined, the cost also decreased due to the fall in raw material prices, and soda ash factories still had a small profit, which supported a relatively high start - up rate. In the second half of the year, coal prices are expected to decline slightly, and the price of raw salt is expected to remain stable. The cost of soda ash may decline slightly. With the end of seasonal maintenance, the supply - demand pressure will reappear, and the spot price of soda ash is expected to decline, leading to a further decline in the profit of soda ash factories [62]. 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Supply**: In July - August, although there is still some maintenance, the industry start - up and production will remain at a high level. In September, with less maintenance, the start - up rate will increase significantly, and the supply pressure will be particularly obvious in the fourth quarter, and the high - inventory problem of upstream cannot be solved [66]. - **Demand**: The profit of float glass is low, and the daily melting volume is expected to decrease slightly in the second half of the year, reducing the demand for soda ash. Photovoltaic glass is also expected to reduce its daily melting volume due to inventory pressure, and the demand for soda ash will decrease year - on - year. The downstream of light soda ash is affected by the macro - economy, and some downstream enterprises face inventory and profit pressure [66]. - **Overall**: The downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation, but there is limited room for rebound. After the third - quarter maintenance, significant inventory pressure will emerge, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies with light positions [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1174元/吨，基差为16元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。SA2509：1140-1190区间操作 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.6.30-7.4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周纯碱期货低位震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周下跌1.84%报1174元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1190元/吨，较前一周下跌2.70%。 供给方面，前期纯碱企业检修持续，下周个别企业恢复或计划检修，整体对于供应影响 不大，预计下周周度产量接近71万吨，开工率81%。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一般， 按需为主，存货意向不足。目前浮法消费相对稳定，光伏逐步下行，消费下降；周内，浮法 在产日熔量15.78万吨，环比增加1000吨，光伏日熔量9.20万吨，环比降3600吨。截止7月3 日，全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合 来看，纯碱供给高位 ...

钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-07-07 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 4 元/吨（-0.13%）。当日注册仓单 29168 吨, 环比增加 2095 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.85 万手，环比增加 1338 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3201 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.21%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 1491 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.08 万手，环比减少 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. In the short - term, spot transactions are stable, and policy proposals and peak - season expectations drive a rebound. However, factors such as Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit the upside. The long - term bullish view is supported by policy expectations, low prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish view is based on the lack of substantial improvement in the real - estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. - Soda Ash: The trend is sideways with a downward bias. High glass inventory and large losses limit the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term valuation is low and there are some positive expectations, the market will face greater delivery pressure. The core factors are high production and high inventory, and it is difficult to expect a long - term shortage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 3.1.1 Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,510 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,600 tons/day [14]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons/day, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [17]. - The current in - production capacity is about 157,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day, and the recent low was 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day. The production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited [19][21]. 3.1.2 Price and Profit - This week, transactions were stable, with most prices unchanged and some in Shahe rising by 10 yuan/ton. Shahe's price is around 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, Hubei's is around 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and East China's is around 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [27][31]. - Futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The monthly spread was weak due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [33][35]. - Profits: Petroleum coke profit is around - 101 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal fuel profits are around - 199 - 82 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - fired devices is 86 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 188 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 85 yuan/ton [38][41]. 3.1.3 Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions were relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly [44]. - Regional arbitrage: The price in East China decreased, and the regional price difference shrank [45]. 3.1.4 Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Prices declined, recent orders decreased, shipments were average, and inventory increased. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, down 2.27% month - on - month; the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, down 2.63% month - on - month [53][55]. - Capacity and inventory: As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity is about 94,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 34.62 days, up 6.80% month - on - month [57][58][62]. 3.2 Soda Ash 3.2.1 Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash开工 changed little, and the potential maintenance volume is currently small. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32% (last week was 82.2%). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 396,000 tons. With high production and high inventory, either manufacturers increase production - reduction efforts or the real - estate industry recovers to drive the demand for glass and soda ash. Currently, glass has great pressure and cannot increase the demand for soda ash [66][68]. - Inventory is about 1.81 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.005 million tons of heavy soda ash [69][70]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The prices in Shahe and Hubei are nominally around 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and prices changed little this week [76][80]. - Due to high production and high inventory, the near - month pressure is large. The basis is slightly strong, and the monthly spread is under pressure. The near - month pressure comes from delivery and trade pressure, and the fundamental factor is the weak glass market and high soda ash production [82][85]. - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 12.5 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 62 yuan/ton [88]. - There are several planned and under - construction projects in the soda ash industry, such as the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy with an expansion capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, planned to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [84].

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 2025 年上半年纯碱价格重心下移，纯碱供需持续宽松，使得各环节库存均大幅增加。展望 2025 年下半年，纯碱产能仍然面临过剩局面， 纯碱总库存将继续呈现高位上行态势，除非部分高成本产能出清，否则纯碱价格将持续下探成本..... 纯碱供需宽松，价格继续承压 邝志鹏 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 刘国梁 从业资格号： F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王海涛 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 余彩云 从业资格号： F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 期货研究报告 | 纯碱半年报 2025-07-06 纯碱供需宽松，价格继续承压 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邮箱：wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 邮箱：kuan ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月4日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 14000 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -65 | -125 | 60 | 48.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13900 | 13950 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 非标价差 | -115 | -175 | 60 | 34.29% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.55 | 48.20 | 0.35 | 0.73% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.50 | 55.00 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report - Date: July 4, 2024 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash market is facing an overall surplus situation, with supply and demand both declining and inventory accumulating. The long - term outlook is bearish, but there is a risk of short - term correction due to policy stimulus [8]. - The glass market is under pressure from increasing supply and high mid - stream inventory. Although the price has rebounded due to policy expectations, the follow - up implementation of industry production - limiting policies needs to be monitored [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **July 3 Trading Data**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 closed at 1,183 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with an increase of 177,559 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production dropped to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease. Capacity utilization fell to 81.32%, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease. Consumption decreased by 1.50% week - on - week, and inventory increased by 2.41% week - on - week to 1.8095 million tons [8]. - **Outlook**: The overall surplus pattern suppresses prices. Demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is declining. In the short term, there is a risk of correction, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is bearish [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - **July 3 Trading Data**: The FG509 contract closed at 1,039 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.56%, with an increase of 22,323 lots in positions. The FG601 contract closed at 1,128 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.25%, with a decrease of 4,438 lots in positions [7]. - **Supply**: Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line with a design capacity of 600 tons/day was restarted, increasing supply and inventory pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues [9]. - **Policy**: The market expects the government to introduce policies for capacity clearance and production limitation, leading to a price rebound. The implementation of these policies needs to be monitored [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [13][14][19].