专题研究 2025 年 1 月 1 日—1 2 月 3 1 日 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 债券市场研究系列 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 姚姝冰 shbyao@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 2025 年债市政策复盘：创新性与规范化并 举，债市开放再谱新篇，2026-2-4 "十五五"开局下的信用债图景：2026 年 趋势与策略，2025-12-25 违约与展期"双降"下的债市评级调整新 动向，2025-9-9 多空博弈之下，债市风险知多少？—一季 度债市信用风险新特征与关注点，2025-5-6 潜流暗动，聚焦局部——当前债券市场信 用风险表现、特征及展望，2024-11-11 转债风波与地产困局下的信用风险关注— —三大视角透视信用风险半年报，2024-7- 25 融资温和回暖、趋势行情难现，关注长债 供给增加带来的结构性机会-2024 年一季度 信用债市场运行回顾与展望，2024-4-30 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 ...

A股三大指数今日高开高收，截至收盘，上证指数涨1.41%，深成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨2.98%，北证 50指数涨1.36%，沪深京三市成交额22702亿元，较上日放量1067亿元，三市超4600只个股上涨。 板块 题材上，文生视频、光纤、染料、光伏、CPO、培育钻石、算力租赁、半导体、商业航天、智能电网板 块涨幅居前；油气开采及服务、燃气板块表现稍显落后。盘面上，字节跳动近日发布Seedance2.0，推 动文生视频板块走强，中文在线、风语筑等股封涨停板。光纤、CPO等算力硬件股全日维持强势，长飞 光纤收获涨停再创新高。受染料涨价影响，染料板块强势上扬，闰土股份、吉华集团涨停。马斯克押注 太空光伏赛道，相关产业链应声大涨，TCL中环、亚玛顿等20余股涨停。此外，算力租赁、商业航天、 半导体等板块多点开花。另一方面，油气开采及服务板块表现稍显落后，通源石油、潜能恒信等股下 跌，但纵观整个市场，个股涨多跌少。 ...

Group 1: Macro Background and Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is experiencing sustained improvement, with a focus on oil price variables. The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.3% and 3.2% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts [7][5] - The ACC's global chemical production index remained flat in December, with a slight increase of 0.3% in the Asia-Pacific region, while North America and Europe saw declines of 0.8% [7] - Since 2022, the number of chemical plant closures in Europe has surged sixfold, with a cumulative capacity loss of 37 million tons, representing about 9% of Europe's capacity. The petrochemical sector faces significant risks due to a lack of energy cost competitiveness [7][5] Group 2: Pre-prepared Food Industry - The National Health Commission released a draft national standard for pre-prepared food, defining its scope, shelf life, nutritional quality, packaging, and additive use, marking a significant milestone for industry standardization [10][11] - The standard prohibits the use of preservatives and aims to minimize food additives, with a maximum shelf life of 12 months for products [11] - The introduction of these standards is expected to enhance consumer trust and promote the growth of the pre-prepared food sector, particularly benefiting leading companies with strong production and supply chain management capabilities [13][12] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.25% at 4065 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also declined [21][22] - The consumer sector outperformed other styles, with an average daily trading volume of 23.88 billion yuan, down from 30.365 billion yuan previously [6] - The energy sector, particularly oil and gas extraction, saw a notable increase of 4.28%, while sectors like tourism and retail experienced declines [23][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - **Macro - situation**: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - **Commodity views**: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - **Eurozone**: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - **Geopolitical**: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - **Precious metals**: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - **"Happy Shopping for Spring Festival"**: The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - **2026 Credit Work Conference**: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - **Policy - end**: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production end**: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - **Demand end**: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - **Price trends**: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].

图表：辽宁省硫酸产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年9月硫酸产量分析： 摘要：【图】2025年9月辽宁省硫酸产量统计分析 2025年1-9月硫酸产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，辽宁省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量累计达到了95.6万吨，与 2024年同期的数据相比，下降了11.4%，增速较2024年同期低3.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低16.8个百 分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量8329.56708万吨的比重为1.1%。 注：从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务 收入2000万元。 产业调研网为您提供更多 单独看2025年9月份，辽宁省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量达到了12.5万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，9 月份的产量增长了21.5%，增速较2024年同期高47.0个百分点，增速较同期全国高15.9个百分点，约占 同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量923.86758万吨的比重为1.3%。 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业监测及发展趋势 化工未来发展趋势预测 日化现状及发展前景 润滑油发展前景趋势分析 汽油的现状和发展趋势 柴油行业现状与发 ...

Core Viewpoint - On February 6, 2023, the controlling shareholder of Singshan Co., Ltd., Singshan Group, and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Pengze Trading, signed a restructuring investment agreement with Anhui Wanhua Group and Ningbo Jinzi, which may lead to a change in control of Singshan Co., Ltd. if the restructuring is successful [1]. Group 1: Restructuring Agreement - The restructuring investment will be used for direct stock acquisition and bankruptcy service trust investments, with a total investment cap of approximately 7.156 billion yuan [5]. - Anhui Wanhua Group will acquire 13.50% of Singshan Co., Ltd. shares at approximately 16.42 yuan per share, totaling about 4.987 billion yuan [5]. - The remaining 8.38% of shares will be retained by the debtor, with an agreement to act in concert with Anhui Wanhua Group during the lock-up period [5]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - As of the announcement date, Singshan Group holds 12.76% of Singshan Co., Ltd. shares, while Pengze Trading holds 9.13% [6]. - Anhui Wanhua Group is a wholly state-owned enterprise controlled by the Anhui Provincial Government, while Ningbo Jinzi is a state-controlled enterprise [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Arrangements - Anhui Wanhua Group is required to pay 20% of the total investment cap, amounting to 1.431 billion yuan, within seven working days after signing the agreement [5]. - The immediate investment stock price is set at 11.50 yuan per share, with specific conditions for stock disposal and priority share acquisition [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures declined and adjusted due to weak fundamentals. The methanol weighted price closed at 2,248 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 3.19% drop from the previous week. The methanol supply was sufficient while the demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals remained weak. The support mainly came from the macro - face and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - face, geopolitics, and crude oil [4][6][7] - In the future, methanol may fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, affected by weak fundamentals, methanol futures declined. Spot prices in ports were weak, and inland prices continued to fall. The price range of Ordos North Line in the main production area was 1,785 - 1,798 yuan/ton, and the price range of Dongying in the downstream was 2,145 - 2,160 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production increased to 2,061,085 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.26%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 5, the olefin开工率 increased, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained flat, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,300 tons, a 13.16% decrease. The order backlog increased by 21,400 tons to 287,100 tons, an 8.05% increase. The port sample inventory decreased by 61,100 tons to 1.411 million tons, a 4.15% decrease [20][22] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material side was stable and slightly stronger, and methanol prices fluctuated. The theoretical profits of different process routes for methanol production showed different trends [26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more methanol plants are expected to resume production than to undergo maintenance. The estimated methanol production is about 2.073 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 92.79%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin开工率 is expected to continue to rise; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decline; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decline; the chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly [30][31] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to slightly decrease to 365,500 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate, and the accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and the change in提货量 [31]

增速较上一年同期变化：低3.8个百分点 据统计，2025年8月吉林省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比下降了3.4%，达8.7万吨，增速较 上一年同期低3.8个百分点，增速较同期全国低12.2个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量 973.35169万吨的比重为0.9%。 详见下图： 摘要：【图】2025年8月吉林省硫酸产量数据 2025年8月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：8.7 万吨 同比增长：-3.4% 产业调研网为您提供更多 2025年1-8月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：71.6 万吨 注：从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务 收入2000万元。 增速较上一年同期变化：低23.0个百分点 据统计，2025年1－8月，吉林省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比下降了3.0%，达71.6万吨， 增速较上一年同期低23.0个百分点，增速较同期全国低10.1个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业硫酸 产量7498.15444万吨的比重为1.0%。详见下图： 图2：吉林省硫酸产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：吉林省硫酸产量分月（当月值）统计图 同比增长：-3. ...

2月6日，"中东因素"成为市场资金流动的重要推手，文华财经石油板块上涨0.98%，成为涨幅最大的板块，资 金净流入33.66亿元，而化工板块下跌0.78%，资金净流入14.31亿元。 波斯湾风云再起，全球化工市场暗流涌动。 当前美伊对峙已触高危临界点，全球目光集中在伊美核谈判上，国际油价存在超预期反弹的风险。伊朗是全球 能源化工产品重要供应国，原油、燃料油等品种出口占比显著，且波斯湾—霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源运输"咽 喉"，一旦冲突发生将直接影响供应与运输安全。 2月6日，在国内商品期货市场情绪趋向谨慎，资金继续撤离的大背景下，石油期货板块逆势获得近34亿元资金 青睐，化工期货板块也吸引超14亿元资金流入，原油及橡胶等均获大量资金加持。 中东持续拉响警报 根据卓创资讯数据，在跟踪的319个产品中，207个品种上涨，上涨品种环比增加69个。其中，涨幅居前的分别 为液氯、氢氧化锂、乙腈、碳酸锂和丁二烯，涨幅分别为71.43%、44.10%、32.86%、25.58%和25.31%。69个 品种下跌，下跌品种环比减少78 个。跌幅居前的分别是双氧水、硝酸、烧碱、煤油和氩气，分别下跌 18.40%、16.71%、13. ...

Report Title - Pure Benzene & Styrene Weekly Report: Market Sentiment Ebbs, Pure Benzene and Styrene Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The styrene market sentiment fluctuates significantly, and pure benzene and styrene are running in a volatile manner. The fundamentals of styrene are improving, and the market is running strongly. The trading strategy for the single - side is bullish, but geopolitical risks need to be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The styrene - naphtha spread has widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread has reached $232. Producers have returned above the cash break - even line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Demand**: As of February 2, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 312,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 188,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 101.29%, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, 2026, the total inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 108,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period, a rise of 7.95%. The commercial inventory was 60,800 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 2.41%, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis strengthened. As prices rebounded, the operating load of styrene plants recovered, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Profit**: The styrene - naphtha spread widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread rose to $232. Styrene profits were significantly repaired, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Valuation**: Market sentiment dropped significantly, and overseas export demand drove up prices, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: On the evening of February 4, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Investment View**: The styrene fundamentals are improving, and the market is running strongly with a volatile trend [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The single - side strategy is bullish, and geopolitical risks need to be monitored [4]. PART TWO: Pure Benzene & Styrene Fundamental Overview - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation between the US and Iran affects crude oil prices [6]. - **Styrene**: Styrene plant profits continue to expand, and the supply side is gradually recovering [16][28]. PART THREE: Polymer Demand Overview - **ABS**: ABS has entered the stage of active inventory reduction [52]. - **PS**: The production profit of PS is at a low level, and demand has entered the off - season [66]. - **EPS**: The price of EPS has rebounded slightly [76]. - **Overseas Benzene Market**: Driven by strong energy prices, the overseas benzene market has risen. However, downstream demand is under pressure, and multiple styrene plants are planned to be shut down in the first quarter. The US benzene price is lower than that in Europe, and the arbitrage window has opened. The winter storm has limited impact on supply. European pure benzene has become the global price high, about $80 higher than in the US and nearly $200 higher than in Asia. European supply is limited due to unstable plant operations. Although the cracking spread is still economically viable for extraction, rising energy costs have squeezed profits. The market is supported by short - term spot shortages, but there are concerns about future supply - demand surpluses [75]. - **Asian Benzene Market**: The rebound of Asian benzene is mainly driven by the improvement of the styrene industry's profitability, the recovery of production, and the resumption of exports to the US. The benzene - naphtha spread has widened to $187, supporting the economic viability of aromatic extraction. High pure benzene inventories and the widening toluene spread limit the increase, and import demand is weak. Plants such as CNOOC, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinopec Shanghai have restarted one after another, and the new cracking plant of BASF in Guangdong has been operating stably, while the short - term shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming plant has limited impact. South Korean cracking plants have shifted to naphtha raw materials, increasing the by - production of benzene. PX and TDP plants are operating stably, and supply is expected to be abundant in February. The current price difference between the US and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The overall supply - demand in the Asian benzene market is balanced, mainly supported by styrene demand [84]. - **Overseas Styrene Market**: The impact of the storm on the overseas styrene market was short - lived. Some plants in Texas were temporarily shut down and then restarted, with limited overall production losses. Quotes in the North American market are scarce, and the arbitrage window between the US and Europe has opened, with a spread of $69. However, US exports are limited by plant shutdown plans and logistics disruptions. Styrene in Europe has strengthened for two consecutive weeks, and the increase in styrene has significantly outperformed that of raw material benzene, with the spread widening to $200. The overall supply is stable, but short - term imports from the Middle East are restricted, and the import volume from the US and Europe in January was only about 20kt. As the spring maintenance season approaches, downstream replenishment demand has increased, and combined with the expectation of the peak season in the second quarter, market concerns about supply shortages have intensified [94]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory of phenol has declined rapidly [96]. - **Adipic Acid**: The profit and operating load of adipic acid have declined [107]. - **Caprolactam**: The operating load and inventory of caprolactam have increased [119]. - **Home Appliances**: The demand for home appliances is waiting for an increase [128]. - **Asian Styrene Market**: The price and economic situation of Asian styrene have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising costs. The styrene - naphtha spread has widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread has reached $232. Producers have returned above the cash break - even line. Although the market is worried that the approaching Spring Festival holiday, pressured polymer profits, and the restart of some plants will suppress demand, strong exports, short - term supply gaps caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the strong spot price. On the supply side, multiple plants are still under maintenance or shut down due to failures, and some production capacities in Taiwan, China, and Japan are planned to resume in February; Middle East supply is expected to gradually return in February, but new maintenance plans in March will limit the increase in supply. On the demand side, there is a divergence: the operation of PS and ABS downstream of styrene is stable, but the operation of EPS has declined, and high costs are squeezing polymer profits, and some manufacturers are considering production cuts or even reselling styrene raw materials [133].