Core Viewpoint - The focus should be on building a "anti-fragile" portfolio rather than chasing short-term rebounds, as Chinese assets have strong risk resilience and long-term value should be prioritized [6][133]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The probability of the Middle East situation evolving into a systemic risk is low, as the geopolitical crisis is unlikely to lead to a prolonged oil crisis [9][11]. - Current oil price fluctuations are more about market sentiment than actual economic conditions, and major central banks are unlikely to change their monetary policies due to inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions [13][14]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to lead to a re-evaluation of strategic resources, with oil and gold maintaining their long-term value despite short-term volatility [19][30]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Analysis - The recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market are influenced by AI anxiety, capital flows, and geopolitical conflicts, but the current opportunity outweighs the risks [8][56]. - Investors should focus on alpha opportunities rather than indices, as the Chinese economy is expected to stabilize and improve, particularly in the second quarter [71][78]. - The construction of an "anti-fragile" portfolio should include strategic resources, competitive Chinese technology, and assets with value certainty, emphasizing long-term growth and resilience [80][96]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Future Outlook - The adjustment of the GDP growth target to 4.5%-5% is seen as pragmatic, allowing for flexibility in navigating external pressures and focusing on long-term development in high-tech sectors [110][114]. - The emphasis on technological innovation and modern industrial systems is crucial for achieving sustainable economic growth, moving away from a resource-driven model [116][118]. - The market is expected to recover gradually, with a focus on identifying undervalued assets that can provide significant returns as the economy stabilizes [132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping industry on the Europe route is bullish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors continue to dominate the market trend. With the escalating situation in the Middle East, short - term international oil prices can be an anchor of concern for container shipping on the Europe route. After an obvious decline and then a rise in crude oil prices, container shipping is expected to still have an upward potential in the short term, with increased volatility risks. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations and strictly control risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, all container shipping routes to Europe rose, and both near - and far - month contracts hit the daily limit at one point. The EC2604 contract opened at the daily limit, then the limit was lifted, and it closed at the daily limit again [1] 3.2 Important Information - US President Trump said that the war between the US and Iran may soon end, and the war is almost over, causing a rapid drop in US oil prices [1] - G7 finance ministers held a phone call on Monday to discuss how to deal with the soaring oil prices caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran. They basically reached a consensus not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [1] - Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said that if the current conflict further expands to the infrastructure level, international oil prices may remain at three - digit levels for a considerable period [1] - Saudi Arabia has started to cut oil production as its oil storage facilities are approaching saturation. Aramco is cutting production at two oil fields [1] - IMF Managing Director Georgieva said that the global economy is suffering from wave after wave of shocks. Oil and gas facilities are damaged and shut down, and energy security has become the primary concern [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On March 9, the SIFIS closed at 1545.46, a 5.6% increase from the previous period [1] - On March 6, the SCFI index closed at 1489.19, a week - on - week increase of 156.08 points [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Geopolitics continues to dominate the market trend. With the escalating situation in the Middle East, short - term international oil prices can be an anchor of concern for container shipping on the Europe route. After an obvious decline and then a rise in crude oil prices, container shipping is expected to still have an upward potential in the short term, with increased volatility risks. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations and strictly control risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple oil-related LOFs experienced a temporary suspension of trading for one hour on March 10, followed by a collective decline upon resumption, with significant drops observed in their prices [1]. Group 1: Performance of Oil LOFs - The E Fund Oil LOF (161129) saw a decline of 4.00%, closing at 1.656, down from the previous close of 1.725, with a trading volume of 7.274 billion [2]. - The Southern Oil LOF (501018) dropped by 3.97%, closing at 1.668, down from 1.737, with a trading volume of 12.393 billion [3]. - The Qiqi Most Comprehensive LOF (160416) experienced a significant decline of 4.76%, closing at 2.380, down from 2.499, with a trading volume of 4.039 billion [4].

报告日期：2026 年 3 月 10 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：地缘降温，动荡仍存 当前市场多空因素激烈交织。地缘冲突溢价有所回吐，但结构性风险犹存。美伊 局势仍是短期核心，美方传递"行动接近结束"及"解除部分制裁"的信号缓和 紧张情绪，隔夜油价显著回落。然而，冲突对关键航道的潜在威胁持续支撑航运 成本，欧洲航线运价上涨印证供应链担忧。与此同时，全球监管机构正积极干预 以抑制投机、防范风险，国内外交易所密集出台上调手续费、调整开仓限制等措 施，旨在为过热市场降温。国内成品油价大幅上调则传导了成本压力。其他板块， 黑色系原料端到港增加但发运下滑，呈现分化；南美大豆收割延迟与天气影响提 供农产品支撑。整体而言，地缘政治风险与强力监管引导形成博弈，市场或步入 高波动与政策市并存的复杂阶段。 重点品种：原油、黄金、甲醇 原油：夜盘油价大幅回落。特朗普表示，我认为伊朗战争已经非常彻底，几乎结 束了。美国总统特朗普表示，我们还将豁免伊朗某些与石油相关的制裁措施，在 事情明朗化之前，我会取消一些制裁。如有必要，美国海军将在时机成熟时护送 油轮通过海峡。IEA 联合释放战略石油储备展开讨论。据报道，包括美国在内的 三 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The inflation data in China in February 2026 exceeded market expectations. The economic is transitioning from policy - driven to endogenous recovery. CPI may face seasonal回调 pressure, while PPI is expected to turn positive as early as March. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict on inflation [1][2]. - The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US - Iran situation. In the short term, it is difficult for the RMB to start a trend appreciation, and the key lies in the change of corporate settlement willingness [3]. - The stock index is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and its subsequent trend depends on the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan policy documents after the Two Sessions [5]. - The bond market may have a short - term trading window, and long positions can be gradually entered [6]. - The container shipping European line futures are highly correlated with geopolitics and oil prices in the short term, with the sentiment side dominating. The main 04 contract is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [15]. - The silicon industry chain is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [17]. - The aluminum industry chain has obvious price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is dominated by the war situation. Alumina has short - term fluctuations and long - term over - supply. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum [21]. - Copper shows resilience, and industrial customers can replenish inventory according to price ranges, while speculative customers can consider volatility - increasing strategies [25]. - Zinc is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [26]. - Nickel - stainless steel oscillates repeatedly, and the market is affected by factors such as RKAB revision and sulfur import blockage [28]. - Tin follows the overall market fluctuations, and the ma60 support level still exists [30]. - Lead is in a weak shock state, and interval operations are recommended [31]. - For oilseeds, the internal market may be strong in the short term, and strategies such as positive spreads between months or widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be considered [33]. - Oils may maintain a high - level operation if diesel prices remain stable [34]. - The crude oil market is mainly affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the attitudes of the US and Iran [37]. - Fuel oil maintains a strong pattern in the short term [40]. - Asphalt prices follow the change of crude oil prices, and there may be a downward trend after the geopolitical disturbance subsides [41]. - Platinum and palladium are in an oscillating and strengthening state. In the long - term, the bull market foundation still exists, but short - term adjustments should be vigilant [46]. - Gold and silver are strategically bullish, and dips can be regarded as opportunities for long - term layout [48]. - Pulp futures can be traded in the short - term within an interval, and a low - long strategy can be considered in the medium - term. Offset printing paper futures can try a high - short strategy [53]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be strong before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, but attention should be paid to callback risks [56]. - LPG price is affected by the Middle - East war, and the length of the Strait of Hormuz blockade determines its price trend [58]. - Methanol may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, but attention should be paid to the risks of geopolitical relaxation and monomer price reduction [61]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain a strong trend before the Middle - East situation eases [63]. - Rubber is jointly affected by macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends, with multiple and short factors intertwined. In the medium - term, a long - on - dips view can be taken, and light positions are recommended [71]. - For soda ash, the supply may be affected by maintenance, and the price space is limited. For glass, the recovery of supply and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space [72][73]. - For steel products, the cost provides support, but the rebound height is limited [75]. - Iron ore has a high valuation, and its price is affected by supply, demand and geopolitical factors [76]. - Coking coal and coke have an over - supply problem, which restricts their price elasticity [79]. - Ferroalloys have cost support, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand [81]. - For live pigs, the price is affected by feed costs, and a short - call option strategy can be considered [84]. - Cotton prices may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and foreign trade policies [87]. - Sugar futures are strong, driven by rising oil prices and valuation repair [90]. - Eggs are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upward space, and short - call options can be sold [91]. - Apples' 05 contract maintains a strong shock pattern due to the scarcity of delivery products [99]. - Red dates may maintain a low - level shock due to insufficient demand drive [101]. - Log futures are affected by geopolitical sentiment, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [102]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic inflation data in February 2026 exceeded expectations. The economic is transitioning to endogenous recovery. Attention should be paid to the inflation impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US - Iran situation. In the short term, it is difficult for the RMB to start a trend appreciation, and attention should be paid to corporate settlement willingness, domestic export data and US inflation index [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and its subsequent trend depends on the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan policy documents after the Two Sessions [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market may have a short - term trading window, and long positions can be gradually entered [6]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are highly correlated with geopolitics and oil prices in the short term, with the sentiment side dominating. The main 04 contract is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern [11]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [15]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The silicon industry chain is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [17]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price fluctuations are obvious. The short - term trend is dominated by the war situation. Alumina has short - term fluctuations and long - term over - supply. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum [21]. - **Copper**: It shows resilience. Industrial customers can replenish inventory according to price ranges, while speculative customers can consider volatility - increasing strategies [25]. - **Zinc**: It is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It oscillates repeatedly, and the market is affected by factors such as RKAB revision and sulfur import blockage [28]. - **Tin**: It follows the overall market fluctuations, and the ma60 support level still exists [30]. - **Lead**: It is in a weak shock state, and interval operations are recommended [31]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The internal market may be strong in the short term, and strategies such as positive spreads between months or widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be considered [33]. - **Oils**: They may maintain a high - level operation if diesel prices remain stable [34]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The market is mainly affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the attitudes of the US and Iran [37]. - **Fuel Oil**: It maintains a strong pattern in the short term [40]. - **Asphalt**: Its prices follow the change of crude oil prices, and there may be a downward trend after the geopolitical disturbance subsides [41]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in an oscillating and strengthening state. In the long - term, the bull market foundation still exists, but short - term adjustments should be vigilant [46]. - **Gold and Silver**: They are strategically bullish, and dips can be regarded as opportunities for long - term layout [48]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Printing Paper**: Pulp futures can be traded in the short - term within an interval, and a low - long strategy can be considered in the medium - term. Offset printing paper futures can try a high - short strategy [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be strong before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, but attention should be paid to callback risks [56]. - **LPG**: Its price is affected by the Middle - East war, and the length of the Strait of Hormuz blockade determines its price trend [58]. - **Methanol**: It may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, but attention should be paid to the risks of geopolitical relaxation and monomer price reduction [61]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to maintain a strong trend before the Middle - East situation eases [63]. - **Rubber**: It is jointly affected by macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends, with multiple and short factors intertwined. In the medium - term, a long - on - dips view can be taken, and light positions are recommended [71]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may be affected by maintenance, and the price space is limited. For glass, the recovery of supply and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space [72][73]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil**: The cost provides support, but the rebound height is limited [75]. - **Iron Ore**: It has a high valuation, and its price is affected by supply, demand and geopolitical factors [76]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have an over - supply problem, which restricts their price elasticity [79]. - **Ferroalloys**: They have cost support, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand [81]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is affected by feed costs, and a short - call option strategy can be considered [84]. - **Cotton**: Its prices may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and foreign trade policies [87]. - **Sugar**: Its futures are strong, driven by rising oil prices and valuation repair [90]. - **Eggs**: They are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upward space, and short - call options can be sold [91]. - **Apples**: The 05 contract maintains a strong shock pattern due to the scarcity of delivery products [99]. - **Red Dates**: They may maintain a low - level shock due to insufficient demand drive [101]. - **Logs**: The futures are affected by geopolitical sentiment, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [102].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is "discussing" the coordination of releasing strategic petroleum reserves to address the current energy market situation [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and different commodities have different trends and risks [6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 1.11%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.21%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04%. The central bank conducted 48.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan on the day. In February, CPI rose 1% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and decreased 0.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that there will still be some pressure, so caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 1.09%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.97%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.75%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.28% [8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and there are policy expectations. However, the Iran situation has high uncertainty, and it is expected that market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to close long positions and wait for opportunities [10][11]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,140 with a decline of 0.07%, and the silver main contract closed at 21,547 with an increase of 0.07% [12]. - **Outlook**: The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [12][13]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3,120 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,240 - 3,260 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is determined by industry supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. It is expected that the price will lack positive drivers but has low valuation. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15][16]. 3.5 Iron Ore - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The port spot price of PB powder was 770 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 660 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. During the key meetings, steel mills' production restrictions have suppressed the demand for iron ore. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the port inventory is at a high level. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17][18]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [19]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure due to steel mills' production restrictions. Technically, the futures are still in a volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [20][21]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose 0.43% to 6,132 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract rose 0.51% to 5,868 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese silicon spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon iron price rose 270 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of overall surplus. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider exiting long positions on rallies [22]. 3.8 Crude Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil hit the daily limit due to market expectations of war escalation [23]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions in CFTC shows that US funds are bullish on the crude oil market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts by Middle East oil companies, which supports oil prices. However, Trump's statement that the war with Iran is basically over has eased the tension. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. 3.9 Polyolefins - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a rapid price increase, and the Yuyao LLDPE market rose 1,950 - 2,450 yuan/ton [27]. - **Outlook**: The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the demand for replenishment has increased, which supports the price increase. The geopolitical conflict has strengthened the cost support. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [28][29]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 8.97%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted to 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton [30]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of crude oil, which has increased the cost of synthetic rubber. Some device overhauls are expected in March. Although the inventory is accumulating, the price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [30][31]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.44%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.38%. The Shanghai spot price of whole latex was adjusted to around 16,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of synthetic rubber, increasing the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in a low - production season, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [32][33]. 3.12 PVC - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 5.99% and hit the daily limit, and the East China spot price was raised by 400 yuan/ton [34]. - **Outlook**: The overseas geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about energy and raw material supply, which is in a game with the seasonal off - season of domestic spring demand. The inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [34][36]. 3.13 Urea - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 4.33%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was 1,920 yuan/ton (+30) [37]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical conflict and international supply - demand mismatch have led to a global production gap in urea. China has strict export quota control. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, export and production capacity expansion need to be concerned. In the long term, the pattern is expected to be loose [37][38]. 3.14 PX - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 7.02% [39]. - **Outlook**: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed. The PX load is slightly increased, and the downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually resuming work. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. Due to the easing of the US - Iran conflict, the oil price may decline, and the PX price may follow and fluctuate. It is recommended to operate cautiously [39][40]. 3.15 PTA - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 7.01%, and the processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The PTA supply is adjusted, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost support is slightly weakened due to the easing of the geopolitical situation. The price may follow the PX and oil prices and decline slightly. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 7.99% [42]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical situation may ease, the cost support may weaken, and the high inventory may suppress the short - term price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring overhaul rhythm [42][43]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose 7.02% [44]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically stable, and the loom load is slightly increasing. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [44]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.02%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 520 yuan/ton [45]. - **Outlook**: The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export is increasing, and the spot is still tight in the short term. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of overhauled devices and cost changes [45]. 3.19 Soda Ash - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,276 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.66% increase and 1,265 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.17% decrease [46]. - **Outlook**: The soda ash production is stable, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the energy price. The market sentiment is volatile, and it is necessary to control risks [47][48]. 3.20 Glass - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,104 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.18% increase and 1,095 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.75% decrease [49]. - **Outlook**: The glass production capacity is in the process of active de - stocking, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The price is under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East situation and fundamental indicators [50][51]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2,442 yuan/ton during the day session with a 5.30% increase and 2,355 yuan/ton during the night session with a 4.31% decrease [52]. - **Outlook**: The caustic soda supply is at a high level, and the inventory is increasing. The downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. The price is affected by the oil price. The market has a strong export expectation but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to control positions [52][53]. 3.22 Pulp - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,300 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase [54]. - **Outlook**: The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is supported by cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and bulk commodities, downstream paper mill procurement, and capital movements [54][55]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 2.94% to 161,060 yuan/ton [56]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the demand is improving. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. 3.24 Copper - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton with a 1.28% increase [57]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper supply is limited. The demand is seasonally warming, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The copper price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [57][58]. 3.25 Aluminum - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,850 yuan/ton with a 1.43% decrease, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,859 yuan/ton with a 2.72% decrease [59]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market has a surplus supply, and the cost is supported by the geopolitical conflict. The domestic aluminum inventory is under pressure, and the demand has not fully recovered. The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong - side operation [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,425 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [61]. - **Outlook**: The zinc supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is weak. The inventory is accumulating. The zinc price may be under pressure and oscillate [61][62][63]. 3.27 Lead - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,720 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [64]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, but the downstream rigid demand is limited. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [64][65]. 3.28 Tin - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 3.51% to 397,630 yuan/ton [66]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The supply of tin is gradually easing, and the demand has short - term support. The inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation [66]. 3.29 Nickel - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose 1.37% to 137,930 yuan/ton [67]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the production cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67][68]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 3.53% to 2,995 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 3.16% to 8,672 yuan/ton.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The war between the US and Iran may end soon, which has an impact on the oil market. The US is considering taking measures to ensure oil supply and lower prices, and the G7 is discussing responses to the oil price surge [2][14]. - The Chinese economy shows certain trends in macro - data, such as changes in GDP, PMI, CPI, PPI, etc. [1][14]. - The bond market is under pressure due to inflation concerns, and the exchange rate market also has certain fluctuations [19][25]. - The stock market, including A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market, has different performances, with some sectors rising and others falling [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP: In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - PMI: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, the same as the previous month but lower than 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - Social Financing Scale: In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7220.8 billion yuan, much higher than 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month and 7054.6 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Money Supply: In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 2.7%, 4.9%, and 9.0% respectively, with different changes compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB Loans: In January 2026, the monthly value of new RMB loans from financial institutions was 4710 billion yuan, higher than 220 billion yuan in the previous month but lower than 5130 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - CPI and PPI: In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years; PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [1][3][14]. - Fixed - asset Investment and Retail Sales: In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7% [1]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import amounts were 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US - Iran war may end soon, causing a sharp drop in US oil prices, while Saudi Arabia's production cuts led to a sharp rise in oil prices in the Asian session. Iran warns that if the attacks on its infrastructure continue, oil prices will rise to $200 per barrel [2][14]. - The G7 finance ministers held a meeting to discuss responses to the oil price surge and decided not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [2][15]. - In 2026, new legislative highlights include formulating and amending relevant laws for the market economy and the financial field, and strengthening legislative research in the field of artificial intelligence [3][16]. - The increase in energy prices is reshaping European interest rate trading, with the market expecting more interest rate hikes [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted trading limits, margins, and fees for some futures contracts [4]. - South Korea implemented the "oil price cap system" to stabilize domestic oil prices [4]. - Saudi Aramco sold crude oil in the spot market through tender, with a total listing volume of about 4.6 million barrels [4]. - Qatar Energy postponed the commissioning time of the North Field East expansion project to after 2027 due to the shutdown of the Ras Laffan plant [4]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The US is temporarily exempting some oil - related sanctions to ensure oil supply and lower prices, and is considering further relaxing sanctions on Russian oil [5]. - Qatar is committed to the stability of the global energy market but will take temporary preventive measures [5]. - Hungary called on the EU to lift sanctions on Russian energy [6]. 3.2.3 Metals - The London Metal Exchange plans to carry out major reforms, including re - evaluating storage requirements and adjusting warehousing rent policies [7]. - On March 9, 2026, the inventories of some domestic metal futures had different changes, such as a decrease in gold and silver inventories and an increase in aluminum, copper, and nickel inventories [7]. - The price spread of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange showed the largest inversion since 2022 [8]. - Ghana will implement a new gold royalty system [8]. - Four Chinese - funded nickel processing plants in Indonesia announced temporary shutdowns due to regulatory requirements [8]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - China has achieved the goal of mainly using domestic seeds for "Chinese grain" and will accelerate the replacement of new varieties [9]. - Thailand will freeze cooking gas prices until May [10]. - Brazil's state - owned oil company Petrobras kept domestic fuel prices unchanged [11]. 3.2.5 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The night trading of domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, and coke fell 1.76% [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 9, 2026, the central bank conducted 48.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News - China's CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [14]. - The US - Iran war may end soon, affecting oil prices [14]. - The G7 finance ministers discussed responses to the oil price surge and decided not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [15]. - In 2026, new legislative highlights include formulating and amending relevant laws for the market economy and the financial field, and strengthening legislative research in the field of artificial intelligence [16]. - China's foreign minister called for an end to the war and ensuring energy supply stability [15][16]. - Some small and medium - sized banks in China lowered deposit interest rates, and some had an inverted long - short - term deposit interest rate phenomenon [17]. - The Bank of Korea will buy up to 3 trillion won of Korean treasury bonds [17]. - There were some bond - related events, such as the recruitment of restructuring investors, resumption of trading, cancellation of issuance, and redemption of bonds [17][18]. - Some overseas credit ratings were adjusted [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China adjusted significantly, with the yields of interest - rate bonds rising across the board. The bond market was under pressure due to inflation concerns [19]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances, with some bonds rising and some falling. The real - estate bond index fell, and the high - yield urban investment bond index rose [20]. - The convertible bond index fell, with some convertible bonds rising and some falling [20]. - Most money - market interest rates rose, and the yields of some financial bonds were determined through bidding [21][23]. - European and US bond yields had different trends [23][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted downwards. The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies had mixed performances [25][26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that new policy - based financial tools have expanded significantly, and attention should be paid to their impact on investment and credit [27]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that price recovery and "price increases" are the core themes this year. The US - Israel - Iran conflict has a profound impact, and the trading logic has shifted from a risk - aversion logic to a stagflation logic [27]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the Middle East situation has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, which may push up domestic inflation readings but is not likely to be the main contradiction in the domestic bond market. The Middle East situation may be beneficial to the Chinese bond market [28]. 3.4 Stock Market News - On Monday, the A - share market opened lower and then recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64%. The oil and gas, coal sectors rose, while the computing power hardware and semiconductor concept stocks were under pressure [31]. - The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated significantly. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.35%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell slightly, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.54%. "Lobster" concept stocks rose sharply, and southbound funds had a record - high net purchase [31].

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, the A-share market showed wide - amplitude fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, while trading volume increased. The performance of various futures varieties was affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [1]. - The prices of some commodities like coal and oil were affected by the Iran conflict, which in turn influenced related futures prices. For example, the prices of coke,焦煤, and crude oil rose, while the prices of some other commodities showed different trends [2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 9, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 4096.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14067.50 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64% to 3208.58 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 451.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Commodity Futures - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On March 9, the coke weighted index closed at 1750.8, up 64.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1190.2 yuan, up 60.1. The cost of coking coal has loosened, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up of coking enterprises is expected to increase. However, the oversupply problem restricts the price elasticity [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: Due to the Iran conflict, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded $100 per barrel on March 9 [5]. - **Steel**: The escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact but a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. Short - term monthly exports are affected by about 1.1624 million tons. If the situation lasts for more than 3 months, there is a risk of losing the Middle - East market share. Steel prices may be strong in the short term due to the rise in global energy prices and the recovery of domestic demand [5][8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the significant increase in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on March 9. There may be a supply gap in the global sugar market in 2025/26 and 2026/27 [5]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated widely on March 9, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The US tire imports increased in 2025, and the predicted total tire shipments in 2026 will increase [6]. - **Palm Oil**: On March 9, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the palm oil futures price was at the daily limit for most of the trading time. As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China increased [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.46% on March 9. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main M2605 contract rose 2.74%. The situation in the Middle - East and the delay in Brazilian soybean harvesting support the price of soybean meal [6]. - **Live Pigs**: On March 9, the live pig main contract LH2605 rose 0.36%. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract fell 0.59% on March 9. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased, and the spot market sentiment was weak [6]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15245 yuan/ton on the night of March 9. The cotton inventory increased, and the short - fiber price rose as the market entered the peak sales season [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 2.28% on March 9. The iron ore shipment continued to recover, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a high level. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 8.99% on March 9. As refineries gradually resumed production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate and shipment volume increased, and the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 818, and closed at 802.5 on March 9, with an increase of 272 lots in positions [7]. - **Alumina**: On March 9, the ao2605 contract closed at 2905 yuan/ton. The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of imported bauxite, and the supply - demand imbalance in the short term supports the price increase, but the over - supply problem has not been fundamentally reversed [8]. - **Aluminum**: On March 9, the al2604 contract closed at 24950 yuan/ton. The market is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on aluminum production capacity. The supply is stable, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [8][9].