国盛证券研报指出，方大特钢成本优势明显，增长潜力突出。公司为江西区域钢企龙头，在行业盈利与 板块估值向好的背景下，权益产能增长或将逐步兑现，为市场稀缺的增量改善标的，其盈利有望持续修 复，公司近三年估值高位水平在1.62倍重置成本左右，对应市值为213亿元左右，认为公司估值有修复 空间，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - **Macro - situation**: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - **Commodity views**: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - **Eurozone**: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - **Geopolitical**: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - **Precious metals**: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - **"Happy Shopping for Spring Festival"**: The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - **2026 Credit Work Conference**: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - **Policy - end**: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production end**: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - **Demand end**: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - **Price trends**: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].

Group 1 - Baosteel Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.04%, reaching 2.50 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.133 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.77%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 113.22 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on June 29, 1999, and listed on March 9, 2001, is primarily engaged in the development and utilization of mineral resources, as well as the production and sale of steel products [1] - The main revenue composition of Baosteel includes steel products at 76.99%, with specific segments being: plates at 50.56%, other products at 22.35% (including pipes at 10.99%, profiles at 8.34%, wires at 7.10%, and others at 0.65%) [1] Group 2 - Penghua Fund has one fund heavily invested in Baosteel, specifically the Penghua National Steel Industry Index (LOF) A (502023), which reduced its holdings by 501.53 million shares in the fourth quarter, now holding 39.8054 million shares, accounting for 12.19% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding [2] - The Penghua National Steel Industry Index (LOF) A (502023) was established on August 13, 2015, with a current size of 340 million CNY, yielding 1.43% year-to-date, ranking 3828 out of 5580 in its category; over the past year, it achieved a return of 31.3%, ranking 2033 out of 4290; and since inception, it has returned 35.25% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent performance of Baosteel Co., Ltd., which saw a 5.04% increase in stock price, reaching 2.50 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.138 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.77%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 113.22 billion CNY [1] - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the development and utilization of mineral resources, as well as the production and sale of steel products, with steel products accounting for 76.99% of its main business revenue, including flat products (50.56%), other products (22.35%), pipes (10.99%), profiles (8.34%), wires (7.10%), and others (0.65%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, it is noted that one fund under the Fortune Fund has a significant position in Baosteel Co., Ltd. The Fortune CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF (159713) reduced its holdings by 2.5775 million shares in the fourth quarter, maintaining 20.9754 million shares, which represents 4.63% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The Fortune CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF (159713) was established on August 5, 2021, with a current scale of 1.079 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are at 7.32%, ranking 1060 out of 5580 in its category; over the past year, returns reached 79.18%, ranking 146 out of 4290; and since inception, the return is 41.2% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, with both valuation and driving factors lacking significant trading opportunities. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is gradually entering a holiday state, while the futures prices are still fluctuating, indicating a less - than - optimistic market expectation for the future or the post - holiday period [7]. - For steel, it's advisable to wait and see in the short term. For hot - rolled coils, positive spreads can be rolled for operations. For coal and coke, it's recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For iron ore, it's suggested that long - term investors short at resistance levels [7][66][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Bullish. Hot metal production has a slight fluctuation, with this week's output increasing by 0.6 to 228.56 wt. The daily consumption of scrap steel has declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the EAF operating rate is steadily decreasing, but there is still room for production resumption after the festival [7]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Building material demand shows more obvious seasonality, with significantly reduced transactions, and the spot market is gradually closing for the holiday. Plate demand remains stable, and the demand for medium and heavy plates is relatively strong, related to downstream shipbuilding and wind power steel demand. Overall, the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and speculative demand has almost stalled [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory of the five major steel products is between the levels of 2025. Seasonal inventory accumulation continues, with the amplitude and rhythm in line with the same - period levels. Building material - related varieties have an increased inventory accumulation amplitude, while the plate inventory accumulation rhythm is relatively neutral [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has strengthened, and the return on cash - and - carry arbitrage has turned positive. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 103, with a week - on - week increase of 21; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 1, with a week - on - week increase of 17 [7]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The profitability of steel mills is moderately low, with actual production profits slightly higher than statistical profits. Rebar profits are slightly better than plate profits. The profitability rate of steel mills, as reported by Steelhome, is 39.39%, with no week - on - week change [7]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [7]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: Neutral. Commodity price fluctuations have increased. As the long holiday approaches, funds have turned cautious, and the speculative atmosphere has cooled down [7]. 3.1.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Wait and see. The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and due to increasing seasonal factors, the market is showing typical seasonal weakening characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to the post - holiday demand start - up situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can be in a range - bound or wait - and - see state. For arbitrage, roll to widen the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. For cash - and - carry arbitrage, roll operations on hot - rolled coils [8]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke 3.2.1 Influencing Factors - **Demand**: Neutral. The steel market has entered the off - season. This week, the apparent demand for the five major steel products is 801.74 (+7.78), and the production is 823.17 (+3.58). The industry data is generally weak, with relatively stable supply, seasonal weakening of demand, and some inventory accumulation. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills this week is 228.58 (-0.12), and the steel mill profitability rate remains at 39.39% [66]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Next week, coal mines will gradually start their holidays. Fenwei's coking coal production has increased, but production will gradually decline in the future. Mongolian coal port clearance has slowed down due to port storage capacity pressure. The offshore market for Australian coking coal is in a state of continued game - playing, with limited market liquidity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [66]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.4 (+0.5), and the coking profit is - 55 (+11). After the first round of price increases was finally implemented, coke enterprise operations have increased [66]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The winter stockpiling is almost over. This week, the market is still in the winter stockpiling cycle, and the upstream inventory is continuing to transfer to the downstream. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, coke enterprise operations increased, and the number of available days of steel mill inventory also increased rapidly. With only one week left before the holiday, upstream coal mines will also gradually start their holidays, and the stockpiling is basically over [66]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, there is no expectation of the next round. The cost of the first - round price increase warehouse receipts for wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke for the 05 contract is 1729/1756, and the port trade quotation is around 1728. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1130 [66]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The steel mill profitability rate is 39.39% (-1.30%), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11) [66]. 3.2.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bearish. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has gradually faded, and the black metal market has weakened in a volatile manner. Fundamentally, the market has entered the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. It is recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should cash in spot positions opportunistically and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [66]. 3.3 Iron Ore 3.3.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Neutral. This period's Reuters shipping data shows a week - on - week increase of 22.2 tons per day to 440 tons per day, with Australia's shipping increasing by 19.5 tons per day, Brazil's by 6.2 tons per day, and non - mainstream mines' shipping decreasing by 3.4 tons per day to 85.5 tons per day. The total arrival volume in China has decreased by 21.2 tons per day week - on - week, with Australia's arrival increasing by 7.6 tons per day, Brazil's decreasing by 8.9 tons per day, and non - mainstream arrivals decreasing by 19.9 tons per day [112]. - **Demand**: Neutral. This period's steel mill hot metal production has slightly increased to 228.58 tons (+0.6). The steel mill profitability rate remains stable at 39.39%. According to the maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to increase significantly in February. The daily average port ore removal volume has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, but the port inventory has increased by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and continuously reaching new highs for the year. Affected by the steel mills' low - inventory operation strategy, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The daily average ore removal volume of 47 ports has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, at a relatively high seasonal level. However, due to the high arrival volume, the port inventory has increased again by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are at a low level [112]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The short - term valuation is moderate. As the holiday approaches, steel mill stockpiling is basically over, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range before the holiday. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether Australian weather will affect the supply rhythm [112]. 3.3.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Neutral. In the long - term, the upward pressure on iron ore is obvious [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short at resistance levels in the long - term. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [112].

这位美国总统可以否决关闭、闲置或出售美国钢铁工厂的决定，还能阻止其更名、将总部迁出匹兹堡或 把公司迁至美国境外。2025年6月，美国钢铁公司成为新日铁子公司后，在纽约证券交易所停牌。 过去一年，特朗普政府进行了前所未有的股权投资，并获得了至少10家公司的其他股份。 这些企业大多是关键矿产公司，白宫正制定战略，直接支持矿业公司打造本土供应链。但投资也涵盖芯 片制造商，可能还有一家核反应堆公司。就美国钢铁公司而言，政府获得了治理股权，而非直接经济权 益。 卡托研究所（Cato Institute）贸易律师兼研究员斯科特・林奇科姆（Scott Lincicome）表示，在非战争或 非经济危机时期，如此规模的投资数量极为罕见。而且政府的投资组合可能还会继续扩大。美国商务部 长霍华德・卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）去年8月对CNBC透露，政府可能会入股洛克希德・马丁等主要 国防供应商。 曾在拜登政府担任国际经济高级主任的彼得・哈雷尔（Peter Harrell）称，过去美国仅在企业纾困时才 会临时持有企业股份。哈雷尔说："对于这些公司，投资逻辑截然不同，政府相当于扮演战略投资者的 角色，向企业注入资金，使企业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Stockpiling is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Apparent demand is weakening month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][17]. - Thermal coal: Coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][21]. - Logs: Port arrivals are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [2][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-1.04%); the position decreased by 10,368 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,077 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.65%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,251 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.43%) [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of February 5th, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons; total inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. In late January 2026, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, etc. [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 was 5634 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; the closing price of silicomanganese 2603 was 5816 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The two - department will increase the proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity prices; steel mills' ferrosilicon procurement prices and quantities changed; electricity prices in some regions changed; UMK's March manganese ore quotation increased [13][14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1138.5 yuan/ton, down 33.5 yuan/ton (-2.9%); the closing price of J2605 was 1698.5 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan/ton (-2.3%) [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 6th, the CCI metallurgical coal index remained unchanged; the coking coal online auction had a 2% failure rate, and the demand was weakening [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 567 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 695 yuan/ton [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 6th, the port market continued to rise steadily; the Indonesian government's coal production plan was uncertain; the Indonesian coal association worried that production cuts would lead to mine closures [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 784, down 2.2%; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 788, down 1.2%. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, and a few increased slightly [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [26].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Fangda Group, Fang Wei, emphasizes the importance of both production operations and ideological work, advocating for a balanced approach to management and employee engagement [3][6]. Group 1: Company Performance and Employee Incentives - In 2025, all four steel plants under Fangda Group reported profits, with Jiujiang Steel performing the best [3][6]. - Fang Wei proposed a bonus of 20,000 yuan for each ordinary employee at Jiujiang Steel and 10,000 yuan for employees at Fangda Special Steel, Leping Steel, and Dazhou Steel [3][6]. - For 2026, it is suggested that all employees at Jiujiang Steel receive an additional three days of paid annual leave [3][6]. Group 2: Year-End Reward Standards - HNA, a subsidiary of Fangda, announced its year-end reward standards for 2025, where profitable companies will provide a bonus of 20,000 yuan, while loss-making companies will offer 5,000 yuan [5]. - Employees at profitable companies will also receive an additional three days of paid leave and a 10% increase in their basic salary [5]. Group 3: Ideological Work and Management - Fang Wei highlighted the need for effective communication and management, stressing that ideological work must support production operations [3][6]. - The company aims to enhance management through positive and negative examples, ensuring timely and accurate responses to employee suggestions [3][6].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/09 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/02 | 3120 | 3210 | 3340 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/03 | 3120 | 3210 | 3370 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/04 | 3120 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/05 | 3120 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/06 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum pulled back from its high. The US threat to impose tariffs on countries involved in Iranian trade will disrupt global trade flows and suppress risk appetite. The central bank carried out reverse repurchases to supplement liquidity, alleviating the panic in the domestic commodity market [2] - Domestically, Shanxi's bauxite production has resumed actively, with sufficient supply and falling prices. For imported ore, the intended transaction price has decreased, and the market is quiet. Some alumina plants are cautious in purchasing [2] - In January, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. Last week, the comprehensive aluminum processing operating rate was 57.9%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, with significant differentiation among sectors [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises rose to 66.0%, but will decline after the completion of pre - holiday stocking. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises rose to 71.4% and will maintain a high level. The operating rate of aluminum cables dropped to 58% and will further decline. The operating rate of aluminum profiles dropped to 36.0%, but the demand for photovoltaic profiles is strong [2] - As of February 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from last Monday. As the price drops, attention should be paid to downstream feedback, but it is expected that there will be no obvious improvement before the Spring Festival [2] Market as a Whole - Short - term market sentiment has eased, the linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous metals is still strong, and market trading sentiment is cautious. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]