Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polysilicon market continued to rebound today, mainly due to the continued price increase by leading silicon wafer manufacturers. However, there was little action from downstream photovoltaic modules, resulting in poor transmission in the industrial chain. With potential supply increases, uncertain demand growth, and considering policy and macro - economic factors, it is recommended to temporarily observe or consider laying out put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,805 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan; the main position volume was 140,638 lots, up 4,343 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 41,455 yuan/ton, up 965 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 2,905 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the spot price was 9,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream**: The monthly output of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, up 4.34 [2]. 3.2 Industry News The market price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise. With the increase in polysilicon prices and positive industry policy signals, the market expected silicon wafer prices to rise. Downstream battery enterprises began to accept price - increased orders, prompting silicon wafer manufacturers to raise prices. Leading enterprises raised their quotes, with 183N rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN to 1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N to 1.55 yuan/piece [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the production capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. Although there is no significant change in recent production data, a potential supply increase trend is emerging [2]. - **Demand**: The demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry decreased slightly, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials increased, indicating that the wait - and - see sentiment of silicon wafer enterprises is being digested. However, photovoltaic module manufacturers are pressing down on prices when purchasing polysilicon due to the price war, and the demand - side support is insufficient. Next week, if the new quotes of silicon wafer enterprises can be implemented, it will stimulate the demand for polysilicon; otherwise, the growth of polysilicon demand will be limited [2].

周一，多晶硅期货主力合约低开触及跌停后快速反弹，几乎收回日内所有跌幅后重新下跌，午后再度跌 停，市场分析指出，今日下跌的直接触发因素或与监管政策收紧与资金情绪反转有关。广期所此前发布 交易限额、提高保证金及手续费等措施，抑制前期投机多头情绪；同时，市场对"反内卷"政策预期出现 分歧，前期炒作资金加速撤离，引发踩踏式抛售。但是，需要留意的是，多晶硅主力合约多次打开跌停 板，尾盘价格走高重新测试5万关口，或表明市场看涨预期仍存。 "不能低于成本价销售"对价格影响最大，具体是指什么？ 经济观察报表示，"不能低于成本价销售"和"交割品缺货"这两篇小作文对多晶硅的价格影响最大；尤其 前者，更是一系列小作文的源头。那么，这个"成本价"指的是企业各自的成本，抑或是行业的平均成 本？ 对此，通威股份表示，到目前为止，关于"不能低于成本价销售"这方面，整个行业还没有一个严格、准 确的统一口径，他们这边也不把握这个"成本价"的明确指向。大全能源建议通过中国有色金属工业协会 硅业分会这个途径详细了解"成本价"的口径指向。 而对于"交割品缺货"相关的小作文，出现的原因是由于通威股份此前曾在信息互动平台上表示，"多晶 硅期货交割品为N ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is expected to face adjustments next week, with prices likely to fluctuate. Although prices are supported by costs and policies, the upside is limited by downstream acceptance. The short - term decline in futures may not lead to a significant drop in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see or consider bearish options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan; the open interest was 136,295 lots, down 18,873 lots. The 8 - 9 month polysilicon spread was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 40,490 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the basis was - 4,525 yuan/ton, up 3,240 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan; the spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons, and the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of solar cells was 67.386 million kilowatts, down 3.183 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units, and the average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The weekly polysilicon price index of the photovoltaic industry was 26.63, up 4.34 [2] Industry News - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year [2] - On the supply side, some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. There is a potential increasing trend in supply. On the demand side, the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has slightly decreased, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials has increased. However, photovoltaic component manufacturers are pressing prices when purchasing polysilicon, and the demand - side support is insufficient [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - **Important Information**: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - **Important Information**: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - **Important Information**: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - **Important Information**: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - **Important Information**: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - **Important Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].

Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation with long - short game. The macro - policy expectations and fundamental verification may fluctuate, and the short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the market [4]. - Stainless steel prices are dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The market is expected to follow the macro - sentiment direction with a range - bound logic [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment is hyped, and the fundamentals have support, but the disk may correct next week [31]. - Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the policy expectations of "anti - involution" [32]. - For lithium carbonate, there are large differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: Macro and news factors jointly disturb, and nickel prices may range - bound. The policy expectations of macro - adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity are fermenting, but the fundamentals and macro - expectations may deviate. The short - term Indonesian policy news is within market expectations [4]. - **Reality**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, the short - term inventory of refined nickel is stable, but the expected increase in low - cost supply has a drag effect. The inventory of nickel - iron is high, but the marginal restocking slightly repairs the price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [6]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related news from Indonesia, such as the APNI's suggestion on the HPM formula and the possible change of the RKAB approval cycle [9]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The macro - policy expectations on the supply - side boost the market, but specific policy guidance is needed for a trend - upward movement [5]. - **Supply - demand**: It shows a double - weak pattern. The negative feedback leads to a decline in supply, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The production and demand data of China and Indonesia show certain changes [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the inventory of different types of stainless steel also decreased [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The disk is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has increased. The Friday closing price is 9,725 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have also risen [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocked again. The supply side has a marginal increase in weekly production, and the demand side has stable short - term demand from downstream industries [28]. - **后市观点**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The disk may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [31]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The disk has risen significantly, and the spot quotation is high. The Friday closing price is 51,025 yuan/ton, and there is some high - price成交 in the spot market [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production has a marginal increase, and the upstream inventory is de - stocked. The demand side has a decline in silicon wafer production due to terminal factors [29]. - **后市观点**: It is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the supply - side changes brought by "anti - involution" [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The main contract has risen rapidly with significant pull - backs. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased [63]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory continues to increase. The supply side has an increase in lithium concentrate price, and there are differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production. The demand side has weak purchasing willingness at high prices [64]. - **后市观点**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations. The market has different views on the impact of key mines' production reduction or suspension [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Macro - policy expectations and fundamentals interact, and short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the nickel market [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, but the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. It is expected that the price will follow the macro sentiment and show a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry fundamentals still provide support, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production by upstream factories. The market may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [27][31]. - Polysilicon: It is in a policy - driven market, and there may be a short - term correction. The price is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton next week [27][32]. - Lithium carbonate: There are large differences in the market's view on the impact of anti - involution policies on production, leading to wide - range price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [63][66]. - Palm oil: The macro sentiment has faded, and the fundamentals may experience a pull - back [86]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The nickel futures closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel futures closed at 13,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume of nickel futures was 165,710 lots, and that of stainless - steel futures was 200,473 lots [12]. - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the support from nickel ore is weakening, and the inventory of refined nickel is stable in the short - term. For stainless steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased [4][5]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related and project - related news from Indonesia, such as potential changes in mining quota periods and project production suspensions [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movements**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures closed at 51,025 yuan/ton. The spot prices of both also increased [27]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased, and polysilicon's upstream inventory was reduced. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics, such as the increase in industrial silicon production in some regions and the reduction in polysilicon downstream demand [28][29]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon should focus on the resumption of production by upstream factories, and polysilicon may correct in the short - term due to policy factors [31][32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton. The spot price was 72,900 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be affected by anti - involution policies, and there are differences in the market's view on its impact. The demand from downstream is weak at high prices, and the inventory continues to increase [64][65]. - **Market Outlook**: There are large differences between bulls and bears, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 09 contract decreased by 0.31% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract decreased by 0.20% [87]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil's macro - driven rise may face a pull - back due to weak fundamentals, and soybean oil lacks strong driving forces and should pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [86][87].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant trend in the futures market driven by "anti-involution" strategies, with leading sectors such as polysilicon and coking coal showing substantial price increases due to production cuts and environmental regulations [4][11]. - The report indicates that there is still potential for over 15% price appreciation in leading stocks related to polysilicon, coking coal, glass, and coke, as the price trends in commodities remain upward [4][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to bottom out and recover, suggesting that stock market performance is closely tied to PPI movements [5][12]. Group 2 - The report outlines a "dumbbell trading" strategy observed in fund holdings, where there is an increase in allocations to TMT sectors like telecommunications and media, while reducing exposure to consumer goods and manufacturing sectors [6][15]. - The report notes that the second quarter saw a consensus among both northbound and domestic funds to increase allocations in dividend-paying sectors and cyclical industries, while reducing exposure to consumer and manufacturing sectors [16]. - The report discusses the historical performance of PPI cycles, indicating that during PPI upturns, cyclical sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals tend to perform strongly [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4][12] Core Viewpoints - The draft amendment to the Price Law aims to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, regulate market pricing order, and alleviate "involution" competition [4][6][7] - The amendment is expected to ease competition in industries such as polysilicon, lithium battery anode and cathode materials, wind power equipment, and energy storage, promoting price stability and improving profitability for related companies [4][7] Summary by Sections Price Law Amendment - The draft amendment includes ten articles focusing on three main areas: 1. Improvement of government pricing content, including the clarification of government-guided pricing mechanisms and the importance of cost monitoring in price setting [6][7] 2. Clarification of standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping, price collusion, and price discrimination [6][7] 3. Establishment of legal responsibilities for pricing violations, including increased penalties for non-compliance with pricing regulations [7] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include: - Xinte Energy - GCL-Poly Energy - Wind Power Technology - Sungrow Power Supply - Wanrun New Energy [4][7] Profit Forecasts for Related Companies - Profit forecasts for selected companies indicate varying performance: - Xinte Energy: Expected net profit of -3.9 billion RMB in 2024 - GCL-Poly Energy: Expected net profit of -4.75 billion RMB in 2024 - Wind Power Technology: Expected net profit of 1.86 billion RMB in 2024 - Sungrow Power Supply: Expected net profit of 11.04 billion RMB in 2024 - Wanrun New Energy: Expected net profit of -870 million RMB in 2024 [9]