投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-1 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 10 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | | 表1：国债期货2月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.570 | 112.480 | 112.730 | 112.670 | 0.160 | 0.14 | 75752 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policy announcements, geopolitical situations, and seasonal trends. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and adjust strategies accordingly. [18][20][110] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The index shows a bullish arrangement, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, the trading volume has decreased, and the market may fluctuate in the future, but the upward trend remains unchanged. The recommended trading strategies include going long on a single - side, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and using bullish spreads for options. [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to strengthen, but the profit - taking behavior increases. The short - term yield may provide a short - selling opportunity, and the long - term yield may be cautious. The recommended strategies are to take profits on the long position of TL at high prices and pay attention to the potential strengthening of the T - contract inter - period spread. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure is large, and the international supply is relatively loose. The domestic market is also well - supplied, and it is expected to oscillate. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term. [25][26] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is rising, and the domestic price is expected to remain high. The international sugar price may oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar contract is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. The recommended strategies include waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options. [28][33] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market maintains a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to go short lightly at high prices or wait for a callback to go long. The y59 spread can be considered for reverse arbitrage at high prices. [36][37] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. The recommended strategies include a bullish view on the outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, short - selling the 03 corn lightly at high prices, and expanding the spread between 05 corn and starch at low prices. [40][41] - **Pigs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options. [42][43] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. It is recommended to short - sell the 03 peanuts lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options. [45][47] - **Eggs**: As the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, the egg price has declined. It is recommended to short the June contract on a single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [48][49] - **Apples**: The pre - holiday sales are good, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the May contract at low prices, short the October contract at high prices, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage. [52][54] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals change little, and the cotton price is supported. It is expected that the US cotton will oscillate weakly in the short term, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate within a range. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival. [56] Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand continues to decline, and the steel price oscillates. It is recommended to follow the market sentiment and oscillate weakly on a single - side, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short - coil - long - rebar spread. [59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are on holiday, and the spot trading is cold. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to trade in bands or wait and see. [61][63] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the ore price runs weakly. It is recommended to run weakly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [64][66] - **Ferroalloys**: As the long holiday approaches, it is recommended to take partial profits on the long positions at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options. [67][68] Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment stabilizes, and gold and silver recover. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see and hold an empty position during the holiday, while aggressive investors can hold long positions on Shanghai gold and silver with appropriate positions. [71][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The regional disputes are complex, and the precious metals oscillate widely. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buy at low prices, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [75][76] - **Copper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is recommended to operate cautiously. The copper price rebounds after the panic subsides. [77][78] - **Alumina**: The expected marginal change in production capacity causes the price to fluctuate more. It is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term and participate cautiously. [80][82] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The risk preference is repaired, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to oscillate and rebound on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [83] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It mainly follows the outer - market aluminum price. It is recommended to oscillate strongly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [87] - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. The zinc market is affected by the holiday, and both supply and demand decrease. [88][89] - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see due to the weak supply and demand during the holiday. [92][93] - **Nickel**: Although the pre - holiday market cools down, the bottom is rising. It is recommended to watch more and move less before the holiday and go long lightly after the price stabilizes. [94][96] - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to watch more and move less before the holiday and go long at low prices after stabilization. [98][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: The technical side is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize. [100] - **Polysilicon**: The industry self - discipline and price - supporting expectations rise again. It is recommended to watch more and do less and wait for a good safety margin. [101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under the strong regulatory environment, funds continue to flow out before the holiday. It is recommended to reduce the exposure before the holiday. [104] - **Tin**: The tin price may oscillate strongly. It is recommended to control the position before the holiday. [107][108] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the geopolitical situation in Iran. The market oscillates, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage at low prices. [110][111] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The risk premium rebounds, and the international oil price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to oscillate widely on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [113][114] - **Asphalt**: The spot prices in various regions are basically stable. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on the BU2606 contract at low prices. [115][118] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur spot trading slows down, and the geopolitical drive continues. It is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations, take profits on the FU59 positive arbitrage at high prices, and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse arbitrage. [120][122] - **LPG**: The domestic fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to oscillate on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [124][125] - **Natural Gas**: The risk sentiment on both the supply and demand sides eases to a certain extent. It is recommended to hold short positions on the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract. [128][130] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester production reduction is gradually realized, and the weaving sales gradually stop. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [133][134] - **BZ & EB**: The supply returns, and the basis declines. The fundamentals weaken. [135][137] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. It is recommended to oscillate weakly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [139][140] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [142][143] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production decreases, and the supply is reduced. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [144][146] - **Propylene**: The supply and demand support is acceptable. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [148][149] - **Plastic PP**: The growth rate of PP apparent consumption slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions on the L 2605 contract and set a stop - loss at 6710 points, and wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the support at 6600 points. [150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price strengthens. It is recommended to oscillate on a single - side. [153][154] - **PVC**: It mainly oscillates. It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [155][157] - **Soda Ash**: The price weakens. It is recommended to short at high prices before the holiday, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options. [158][160] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. It is recommended to short at high prices before the holiday, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options. [161][162] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to go long at low prices, pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on a callback. [163][164] - **Urea**: It runs strongly. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the futures. [166][167] - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to operate within a range and for aggressive investors to lay out a small number of long positions based on the previous low. [169][172] - **Offset Printing Paper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is in the off - season, and the market is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options. [173][174] - **Logs**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the market is dull. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on the 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The semi - steel tire inventory is significantly reduced. It is recommended to try to go long on the RU 05 contract lightly and set a stop - loss at 16020 points, and wait and see for the NR 04 contract. [179][181] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The semi - steel tire inventory is significantly reduced. It is recommended to try to go long on the BR 04 contract lightly and set a stop - loss at 12585 points. [182][184]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 品种：铜（CU） 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周黄金市场经历剧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks of the San Francisco Fed President eased market expectations of the Fed's hawkish policy, leading to a weaker dollar and a rise in the precious metals sector. As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to a weaker dollar and positive macro - expectations. The report suggests seizing opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - The price of palladium is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and positive macro - environment [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58% [2]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a wide - range volatile consolidation phase due to factors such as sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed rate - cut expectations. In the long term, the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity. The platinum - to - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level this week, and it is recommended to consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - **Main Logic**: There is uncertainty on the supply side, with the US import investigation of Russian unforged palladium pending and Europe considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the spot shortage supports the price. On the demand side, there is still structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and Fed rate - cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. Supported by short - term spot shortages and a positive macro - environment [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1404.35, up 0.58% [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on February 9, 2026, was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

申银万国期货研究所 戴鸿绪 （从业编号F03153282 交易咨询号Z0023729） 评 论 及 策 略 生猪市场呈现期现联袂回落的走势，主力合约LH2605收跌0.69%。现货层面，全国外三元生猪 出栏均价也小幅下滑。主要由于小年临近，养殖户销售窗口期日益收窄，导致压栏情绪松 动，市场供应压力陡增。下游屠宰企业开工率有所提升，但仍难以消化供应压力，导致成交 价格承压下行。综合来看，市场短期内呈现"供需双增，但供给压力更为突出"的博弈格局 。预计猪价可能以弱势稳定为主，后续行情的关键，需要密切关注养殖端的出栏情绪是否延 续以及屠宰企业开工率能否有更强劲的表现。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相 ...

客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 作者： 新能源有色金属组 相关品种：沪金、沪银 宏观面上看，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最 差。去年12月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2 万至23.1万。美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得57.3，创六个月来最高水平。与此同时，1年 期通胀预期降至3.5%，为一年来的最低水平。弱势的就业数据或将强化美联储在货币政策上的偏鸽表 态，整体看利多贵金属的宏观环境未发生改变。 此外，2月7日，央行公布数据显示，1月末黄金储备为7419万盎司，较上月末增加4万盎司。这是自2024 年11月重启增持后，央行连续第15个月增加黄金储备。 近期贵金属价格波动率显著升高，与美股等风险资产的正向相关性凸显。近期多次出现价格大幅下挫的 情况，主要催化或集中在美股riskoff情绪下的恐慌性抛售，由于贵金属前期价格上涨斜率过于陡峭，流 动性恐慌背景下易出现价格大幅下挫。但整体看多贵金属的逻辑及宏观环境未发生变化，故目前对于操 作而言，贵金属仍然建 ...

【行情资讯】 贵金属日报 2026-02-10 贵金属 贵金属研究 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 沪金涨 1.00 %，报 1127.00 元/克，沪银涨 5.24 %，报 20934.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 2.10 %， 报 5084.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 8.00 %，报 83.05 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22 %，美元指数报 96.88 ； 周初贵金属市场整体维持高位震荡格局，延续此前大幅下跌后的修复行情。市场普遍定价美联 储 6 月降息预期为金价提供了核心基本面支撑。在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，上周五博 斯蒂克表态称，需等待 4-5 月经济数据出炉后才能释放更明确的政策信号。白银则受紧俏的 库存与现货支撑，近月合约价格仍具备韧性。当前市场焦点集中于本周三公布的美国非农就业 报告，以及周五发布的消费者物价指数。 美联储理事米兰 2 月 10 日表态：财政端，其主张投资全额费用化以刺激资本支出，认为关税 有助于改善美国财政，支持在困难时期动用资产负债表；货币端，强调央行的相对独立性，认 为联储的货币政策应与商业周期相匹配，且需远离非货币问题，并暗示关税 ...

天风期货分析指出，近期沪金期货呈现极端波动与多空博弈加剧的特征，上周黄金期货市场经历了一场 历史级的"暴涨暴跌"，单周振幅超20%。本周初市场企稳反弹，黄金主力合约重回5000美元关口。当前 反弹表明，急跌后的市场结构已通过"洗盘"得到修复。综合来看，黄金或进宽幅震荡区间，交易者需关 注宏观数据或地缘冲突等因素；中长期来看，因央行购金与长期配置盘入场将对黄金形成一定程度支 撑。 每日经济新闻 近日，爱泼斯坦案持续冲击英国政坛，因英国前驻美国大使曼德尔森涉爱泼斯坦案，英国首相幕僚长摩 根·麦克斯威、公关总监蒂姆·艾伦先后引咎辞职。英国首相斯塔默面临要求其辞职的舆论压力，当地时 间9日，斯塔默表示不会辞职。 2月9日，英国政坛变动及美国就业数据疲软预期等双重因素催化，金价震荡走强， COMEX黄金期货价 格盘中一度突破5100美元，尾盘小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨2.10%报5084.20美元/盎司， 黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨3.43%、黄金股ETF（159562）涨2.48%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨 2.33%。 ...