Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall MPOB report for December is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. However, the current shipping survey institutions show a 29% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data in January, and as the subsequent production season approaches, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which has affected the export of new US soybeans and put pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4]. - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Not provided with specific data. - **Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory**: Not provided with specific data. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Not provided with specific data. - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Not provided with specific data. Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Not provided with specific data. - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Not provided with specific data.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday. The overall situation is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. Tire operating rates are at a high level, but automobile production and sales are declining. Tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are recovering [4][23][29] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories have changed little recently, while Qingdao area inventories have rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on February 9, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8][11] Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Negative domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 16,100, and the basis is - 145, showing a bearish signal. The basis weakened on February 9 [4][35]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors have led to strong cost support, but the downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few overall orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6650 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -71, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has increased, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start-up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and the demand for pipes has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 20, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [7] Supply and Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16] Other Information - **Spot and Futures Market Data**: The report provides detailed spot and futures market data for LLDPE and PP, including prices, changes, and inventory information [9] - **Charts**: The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, inventory, and production cash flow of LLDPE and PP [10][12][17]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen significant growth in trading volume and net inflows, indicating strong investor interest amid rising international gold prices driven by market uncertainties [1][2][3]. Fund Performance - As of February 9, the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) reached a record high in shares since its inception [1]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a peak single-day inflow of 386 million yuan, totaling 503 million yuan [2]. Product Highlights - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both lower than the average for similar products. The ETF also supports T+0 trading [3]. Market Events - International precious metal futures have surged, with gold prices increasing by 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce and silver prices rising by 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. This rise is attributed to heightened market risk aversion due to political changes in the UK and weak employment data in the US, alongside a greater than 50% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [3]. Institutional Perspectives - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains supported. The recent significant drop in precious metal prices is viewed as a technical adjustment rather than the end of a long-term bull market. The cooling of speculative sentiment and a decrease in leverage levels are expected to help gold return to a healthier upward trend. In the long term, ongoing global monetary system restructuring and central bank gold purchases are anticipated to sustain gold's long-term bullish trend [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘小幅反弹。供应方面，1月产量继续上升，国内库存继续垒加，LME小幅回落，市场供 应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，印尼强需求和国内成本倒挂成交冷清形成鲜明对比。镍铁 价格开始回落，成本线下移。不锈钢库存继续回升，短期或成为价格压力。新能源汽车产销数据良好， 但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货139450，基差4930，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285072，-210，上交所仓单51721，+447，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多减，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2603：少量空头持有，站回20均线止损。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the role of the futures market in supporting agriculture and rural development, showcasing the commitment of practitioners in the sector to assist farmers through innovative financial solutions [1] Group 1: Futures Market Impact - The futures market is portrayed as a vital tool for risk management, providing a "double insurance" mechanism that helps livestock farmers secure their livelihoods [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of translating complex financial terms into understandable language for farmers, ensuring they can effectively utilize futures contracts [1] Group 2: Agricultural Support Stories - Two specific narratives are presented: one from Sichuan, where futures practitioners have dedicated three years to support pig farmers, and another from Heilongjiang, where they address the needs of grain producers [1] - These stories reflect the dedication and responsibility of futures professionals in serving the agricultural community, demonstrating the tangible benefits of the "insurance + futures" model [1] Group 3: Collaboration and Community - The article underscores the collaborative efforts among various stakeholders in the agricultural sector, highlighting the warmth and strength derived from these partnerships [1] - It illustrates how the futures market acts as a bridge, transforming theoretical financial solutions into practical support for farmers, thereby enhancing their confidence and stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "insurance + futures" model has been successfully implemented in Lin Dian County, Heilongjiang Province, providing a safety net for farmers against income loss due to market fluctuations and adverse weather conditions [2][4][8]. Group 1: Project Background - In 2017, Lin Dian County launched a corn income insurance project as one of the first nine pilot projects in the country [1]. - The county, located in a prime corn-growing area, produced 1.45 billion pounds of corn from 1.64 million acres in 2016, making grain sales a crucial income source for farmers [2]. Group 2: Implementation and Challenges - The project faced challenges such as abnormal weather during the summer of 2017, leading to significant corn yield reductions and a nearly 10% drop in corn prices at harvest time [3]. - The insurance payout of 1.01 million yuan was crucial for farmers, allowing them to purchase seeds and fertilizers for the next planting season [3]. Group 3: Innovative Financial Solutions - The project introduced a dual protection model combining price and yield insurance, which effectively mitigates risks associated with both price drops and crop failures [7]. - The insurance company provided nearly 80% of the premium subsidies, significantly lowering the financial burden on farmers [4]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - The success of the project was attributed to the collaboration between the exchange, local government, insurance companies, and futures companies, creating a comprehensive support system for farmers [7]. - The project involved extensive outreach and education efforts to help farmers understand the benefits of the insurance and futures market [5][6]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The "insurance + futures" model has expanded nationwide, covering 31 provinces and over 21 agricultural products, with a total insured value exceeding 200 billion yuan and benefiting over 7.5 million farmers [8]. - Future improvements include expanding coverage to more specialty crops, enhancing market mechanisms, and increasing training for agricultural stakeholders [9].

"曹经理，猪饲料又涨价了，咱们养猪难啊！"我第一次见到养殖户老陈，他正蹲在自家漏雨的猪舍墙 边，手里捏着半截湿漉漉的烟，烟头的红光在雨帘里忽明忽暗。账本被他塞进怀里，用塑料袋裹了一层 又一层，仿佛那是比命根子还金贵的东西。 我蹲下身，用伞替他挡雨："陈大爷，我们这次来，就是想用'保险+期货'给乡亲们的猪饲料成本价格兜 个底。""'保险+期货'？"老陈操着川北口音的四川话对我说，"听不懂你在说啥子。" 巴山夜雨，总是来得又急又密。2020年5月，天空飘着雨，我在四川省巴中市去往通江县的高速公路 上，车一次次钻入隧道，忽明忽暗的隧道灯光，就像是散落在大巴山里零星的灯火——那是老陈家的猪 舍。灯光昏黄，像一盏随时会被山风吹灭的油灯，也像老陈心里那团"猪饲料价格噌噌涨"的焦虑。 立夏·雨脚如麻，心事如麻 下午3点，最后一笔对冲成交，交易员靠着椅背抻了抻胳膊。西晒的阳光微微透过窗帘洒到桌面，像替 我松了口气。自身对冲模型优化了多次，市场的流动性也够优秀，完美转移了价格风险。 随我一起调研的保险公司许经理用四川话帮我解释："这个项目保费不用你们掏，期货公司和银行帮你 们付保费咯。你们只管安心养猪，猪饲料价格涨了，保险赔； ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 属市场暴跌。交易员将沃什视为最终候选人中最坚定的通胀抗击者，这提高了对美 元构成支撑、削弱以美元计价黄金的货币政策预期。我们认为美国总统提名美联储 前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大 量的获利盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应， 引起了市场的踩踏。美国 12 月 JOLTs 职位空缺录得 654.2 万人，为 2020 年 9 月以 来新低。密歇根大学消费者信心调查：美国 1 年期通胀预期从 4%降至 13 个月低点 3.5%。美国的最新就业和通胀预期数据有利于推动降息。2 月 9 日美元指数收跌 0.78%，报 96.85。伊朗地缘风险持续发酵。2 月 9 日 COMEX 黄金在 5000 美元/盎司 上方窄幅波动、小幅上涨，COMEX 白银涨幅较大收盘站上 83 美元/盎司。金银暂时 未形成新的趋势方向。作为春节假期安排，上期所宣布自 2026 年 2 月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-10 沃仕鹰派预期交易弱化，基本金属震荡 止跌 有⾊观点：沃仕鹰派预期交易弱化，基本⾦属震荡⽌跌 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，特朗普提名的下届美联储主席出乎市场预期， 投资者对沃仕印象解读为鹰派；不过，随着美国疲软的就业数据披露，沃 仕鹰派预期交易有所弱化，整体上看，宏观面预期有所改善。原料端延续 偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现实 供需偏宽松，但中期供需收紧预期仍在。整体来看，随着沃仕鹰派预期交 易弱化，中期美联储独立性风险和供应扰动担忧仍在，铜铝锡等品种有望 维持震荡偏强走势，短期基本金属有望震荡回升，考虑到春节长假临近， 铜铝锡短多交易为宜。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号F03141853 投资咨询号Z0022534 铜观点：库存延续⾼位，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：减产预期 ...