1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - Geopolitical conflicts are changeable, and the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, with amplified price volatility. In the short term, the Middle - East situation is stalemated. With the continuous tightening of LME liquidity, overseas prices are strongly supported, and the Shanghai - London ratio is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level overall [13]. Zinc - In the medium - and long - term, the increase in supply still exerts upward pressure, but it will take time to materialize. The price will be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of internal and external inventory consumption, and be vigilant against the phased impact brought by macro - sentiment [14]. Tin - The price trend is oscillating weakly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The increase in supply suppresses the lithium price, and the low inventory limits a sharp decline. The lithium price is under pressure and oscillates weakly [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel futures decreased last week, with week - on - week declines of - 0.73%, - 0.49%, - 4.97%, and - 0.15% respectively. Aluminum futures rose by 0.99%. In the spot market, copper, zinc, and tin prices decreased, with week - on - week declines of - 0.50%, - 0.98%, and - 3.13% respectively. Aluminum and nickel prices rose, with week - on - week increases of 2.83% and 0.63% respectively [9]. 02. This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices were strong at a high level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the market is still pricing in geopolitical risks. Domestically, the supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is stable. Due to the sharp fluctuations in freight rates and the rise in oil prices, the cost of sea transportation has increased, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, and all sectors increased. However, high aluminum prices and macro - uncertainties are suppressing the release of demand [13]. - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts are changeable, and the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, with amplified price volatility. It is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level overall [13]. Zinc - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices were weak. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was stable, and the overseas supply was disturbed. The operating rate of the galvanizing industry increased, but the terminal resumption of work was slow, and the finished product inventory increased [14]. - **View**: In the medium - and long - term, the increase in supply still exerts upward pressure, but it will take time to materialize. The price will be range - bound in the short term [14]. Tin - **Logic**: In December, the import volume of domestic tin ore increased. The supply from Myanmar is on the rise. In February 2026, the domestic refined tin production decreased. In March, the production increased seasonally, but the lack of raw materials in Yunnan and Jiangxi still restricts the increase in production. The demand has not changed much, and the high price of tin suppresses the release of demand, leading to an increase in inventory [16]. - **View**: The price trend is oscillating weakly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Logic**: Last week, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures rebounded after reaching the bottom and then fell under pressure. The supply is accelerating the recovery, the production of cathode materials is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The terminal sales of new energy vehicles have not improved significantly, but the energy storage maintains high prosperity. The total inventory is decreasing, but the inventory structure is differentiated. The cost of low - grade raw materials is weakening, and the macro - policy is positive but still uncertain [18]. - **View**: The increase in supply suppresses the lithium price, and the low inventory limits a sharp decline. The lithium price is under pressure and oscillates weakly [18]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and 65 yuan/ton year - on - year. The price of low - grade bauxite decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and 65 yuan/ton year - on - year. The average price of imported bauxite increased by 1.88 dollars/ton week - on - week and decreased by 29.33 dollars/ton year - on - year. The port arrival volume decreased by 10.91 tons week - on - week and increased by 149.05 tons year - on - year. The port departure volume decreased by 100.36 tons week - on - week and decreased by 60.55 tons year - on - year [23][26]. - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan increased by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 555.3 yuan/ton year - on - year. The full cost increased by 22.6 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 610.6 yuan/ton year - on - year. The profit in Shanxi increased by 61.71 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 151.46 yuan/ton year - on - year [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost increased by 64.49 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 1099.75 yuan/ton year - on - year. The regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 40 yuan/ton year - on - year [31]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 2 percentage points to 65%. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable at 72.9%. The operating rate of aluminum plates and strips increased by 1 percentage point to 70%. The operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 7.3 percentage points to 51.8%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 2.5 percentage points to 58.8% [36][37]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai increased by 700 tons week - on - week and decreased by 22600 tons year - on - year. The total bonded area inventory increased by 700 tons week - on - week and decreased by 30300 tons year - on - year. The social inventory increased by 5.5 tons week - on - week and increased by 46.4 tons year - on - year. The weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas increased by 6.1 tons week - on - week and decreased by 1.85 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory increased by 21927 tons week - on - week and increased by 183185 tons year - on - year. The LME inventory decreased by 11575 tons week - on - week and decreased by 58250 tons year - on - year [42][43]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the current month increased by 315 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 130 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the main contract increased by 425 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 220 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the third - consecutive contract increased by 375 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 45 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the main contract increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 65 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract increased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 95 yuan/ton year - on - year [49][50]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased by 56 yuan/metal ton week - on - week and increased by 1812 yuan/metal ton year - on - year. The domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased by 1700 yuan/metal ton year - on - year. The imported processing fee decreased by 4.13 dollars/dry ton week - on - week [60]. - **Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory**: The enterprise production profit decreased by 56 yuan/metal ton week - on - week and increased by 1544 yuan/metal ton year - on - year. The import profit and loss increased by 151.3 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 291.25 yuan/ton year - on - year. The inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week and increased by 40,000 tons year - on - year [63]. - **Refined Zinc Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions increased by 1.36 tons week - on - week and increased by 13.7 tons year - on - year. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased by 0.82 tons year - on - year. The SHFE refined zinc inventory increased by 12427 tons week - on - week and increased by 73820 tons year - on - year. The LME zinc inventory increased by 2925 tons week - on - week and decreased by 62425 tons year - on - year [67]. - **Galvanizing**: The production increased by 88725 tons week - on - week and decreased by 36850 tons year - on - year. The operating rate increased by 13.94 percentage points to 53%. The raw material inventory increased by 710 tons week - on - week and increased by 1905 tons year - on - year. The finished product inventory increased by 6400 tons week - on - week and decreased by 7400 tons year - on - year [71]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the current month increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 5 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the main contract increased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 120 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the third - consecutive contract increased by 55 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 375 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 115 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 370 yuan/ton year - on - year [75][80]. Tin - **Refined Tin Production and Operating Rate**: The combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi last week was 0.334 million tons, an increase of 0.053 million tons week - on - week and 0.0355 million tons year - on - year. The combined operating rate was 68.93%, an increase of 10.94 percentage points week - on - week and 7.33 percentage points year - on - year [86]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory last week was 12514 tons, an increase of 851 tons week - on - week and 3993 tons year - on - year. The social inventory of tin ingots in China's regions was 13357 tons, an increase of 275 tons week - on - week and 3207 tons year - on - year [90]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee**: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 16000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week and increasing by 3500 yuan/ton year - on - year. The processing fees for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi were 12000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week and increasing by 3500 yuan/ton year - on - year [94]. - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss level of tin ore last week was 31947.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14937.28 yuan/ton week - on - week and an increase of 23291.32 yuan/ton year - on - year [95]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan last week was 370600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10350 yuan/ton week - on - week and an increase of 94600 yuan/ton year - on - year. The average prices of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi were 374600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10350 yuan/ton week - on - week and an increase of 94600 yuan/ton year - on - year [101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.61% week - on - week and increased by 101.32% year - on - year. The trading volume increased by 26.44% week - on - week and 190.43% year - on - year. The open interest decreased by 5.07% week - on - week and increased by 24.17% year - on - year. The basis decreased by 860.44% week - on - week and 1102.90% year - on - year. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's daily inventory warrant volume increased by 0.20% week - on - week and 1.25% year - on - year [104]. - **Supply**: The total weekly operating rate of carbonate lithium was 53.41%, an increase of 3.71% week - on - week and 7.03% year - on - year. The production of carbonate lithium from spodumene was 14534 tons, an increase of 4.46% week - on - week and 45.28% year - on - year. The production from salt lakes was 3495 tons, an increase of 0.58% week - on - week and 30.51% year - on - year. The production from lepidolite was 2937 tons, an increase of 3.71% week - on - week and a decrease of 28.01% year - on - year. The production from recycled materials was 2460 tons, an increase of 3.84% week - on - week and 50.18% year - on - year [109][110][111]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate was 101,700 tons, an increase of 5.22% week - on - week. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate plants was 105,800 tons, an increase of 5.22% week - on - week and 7.22% year - on - year. The weekly production of ternary materials was 16,900 tons, an increase of 2.46% week - on - week and 31.34% year - on - year. The inventory was 18,000 tons, an increase of 1.17% week - on - week and 36.28% year - on - year. The inventory days were 7.2 days, a decrease of 1.37% week - on - week. The weekly inventory of ternary precursor plants was 36,600 tons, an increase of 0.55% week - on - week. The inventory index was 13.1, a decrease of 1.5% week - on - week [117]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of carbonate lithium in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Sichuan decreased by 1.14% week - on - week and 8.03% year - on - year. The total sample weekly inventory was 99,000 tons, a decrease of 0.42% week - on - week and 19.96% year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.8 days, a decrease of 0.36% week - on - week and 32.69% year - on - year [124]. - **Cost and Profit**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2200.6

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From March 9th to March 13th, the Middle - East situation continued to impact the market. The US February CPI year - on - year growth rate was 2.4%, in line with expectations. The US dollar index continued its weekly upward trend, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. Globally and in China, in terms of performance, commodities > bonds > stocks. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes [3][6][22] Summary by Directory 1. Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Declined, Commodities Rose - **Global Stock Market Overview**: The expectation of a US dollar interest - rate cut cooled, and major global stock markets generally declined. The Asia - Pacific region had the largest decline, emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index declined weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region dropped 2.47% and the Indian SENSEX30 fell 5.52% [8][11] - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The Federal Reserve entered a quiet period, market expectations of an interest - rate cut cooled, and medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 13BP to 4.28%. The bond market declined weekly, and globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: Affected by rising interest rates and high market uncertainty, the US dollar index rose weekly. Major non - US currencies generally depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was mainly volatile. The US dollar index rose 1.56% [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: Due to continuous geopolitical disturbances, international oil prices rose significantly weekly. International gold and silver prices declined significantly, and the prices of major non - ferrous metals and agricultural products showed mixed trends. For example, Brent crude oil rose 11.33% and LME silver fell 0.74% [18][19] 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Diverged, Bond Market Oscillated Weakly, Commodities Rose - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: International events continued to impact the domestic equity market. The major broad - based A - share indexes showed mixed trends. The average daily trading volume of the two markets declined compared to the previous week. The ChiNext Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, coal and construction led the gains, while military and petrochemical sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% weekly [23] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: From March 9th to March 13th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 25.11 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively balanced. The bond market performed weakly weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [24] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, energy and chemical sectors led the gains, while precious metals performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Energy Index rose 14.12% and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell 1.52% [26][27] 3. Major Asset Price Outlook - In the short term, the tense situation in the Middle East may continue. Attention should be paid to whether the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a one-star rating (★☆☆) for the CITIC Five-Style - Stable, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities in the market [2] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), China Bond Composite Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.48%, -0.12%, and 5.18% respectively [3] - In the public fund market, only the short-term pure bond index rose in the past week. The ordinary stock strategy index fell 0.71%, with a narrower decline compared to the previous week. The neutral strategy products had more declines than increases. The pure bond strategy outperformed the convertible bond strategy index. In the commodity sector, the Energy and Chemical ETF continued to rise, up 14.24%, the soybean meal ETF rose 7.74%, and the gold ETF had a slight pullback [3] - In the CITIC Five-Style, the stable and consumption styles rose in the past week, while the rest fell. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the financial style strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the growth and cyclical styles increased month-on-month. Among the public fund pools, the cyclical style fund index outperformed the benchmark last week, with a weekly excess return of 1.83%. The market's deviation from the growth and financial styles rebounded. The market congestion index changed little compared to last week, and the cyclical style congestion rose to a relatively high percentile range in the past year [3] - In terms of Barra factors, the short-term momentum factor performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 2.97%. The residual volatility factor continued to weaken. In terms of win rate, the valuation and liquidity factors rebounded slightly, while the medium- and long-term momentum factor declined. The cross-sectional rotation speed of factors decreased marginally, currently in the middle percentile range in the past year [3] - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the financial style rebounded this week, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 3.16%, with an excess return of 2.97% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Recent Market Returns - The weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), China Bond Composite Index (net), and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.48%, -0.12%, and 5.18% respectively [3] Public Fund Market - Only the short-term pure bond index rose among major strategies in the past week. The ordinary stock strategy index fell 0.71%, with a narrower decline than the previous week. The neutral strategy products had more declines than increases. The pure bond strategy outperformed the convertible bond strategy index [3] - In the commodity sector, the Energy and Chemical ETF continued to rise, up 14.24%, the soybean meal ETF rose 7.74%, and the gold ETF had a slight pullback [3] CITIC Five-Style - The stable and consumption styles rose in the past week, while the rest fell [3] - The relative strength of the financial style strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the growth and cyclical styles increased month-on-month [3] - The cyclical style fund index outperformed the benchmark last week, with a weekly excess return of 1.83% [3] - The market's deviation from the growth and financial styles rebounded, and the cyclical style congestion rose to a relatively high percentile range in the past year [3] Barra Factors - The short-term momentum factor performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 2.97% [3] - The residual volatility factor continued to weaken. The valuation and liquidity factors rebounded slightly in terms of win rate, while the medium- and long-term momentum factor declined [3] - The cross-sectional rotation speed of factors decreased marginally, currently in the middle percentile range in the past year [3] Style Timing Model - The financial style rebounded this week, and the current signal favors the stable style [3] - The return of the style timing strategy last week was 3.16%, with an excess return of 2.97% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is facing short - term disturbances and fundamental pressure. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long - term, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be significant [2] - Considering the supply and geopolitical disturbances, iron ore is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a slight upward trend during the day, closing at 809 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton or - 0.31% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 320,000 lots, the open interest was 459,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.167 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to be under pressure near the upper pressure and enter a volatile consolidation [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 5 to 793, Super Special powder dropped 5 to 670, and the main swap was 107.5 (- 0.45) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to lack upward momentum, and the spot price declined [1] - The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder is 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 16.8 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 is 31.5 yuan, and the spread between contracts 9 - 1 is 19 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, while arrivals increased month - on - month. The previous high shipments are gradually arriving, and the overall supply remains relatively loose. Some spot varieties have limited liquidity, leading to relatively strong futures and spot prices [2] - On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly. During the Two Sessions, production restrictions affected the resumption rhythm of molten iron production, but it is likely to recover seasonally later [2] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, while berthing and steel mill inventories decreased slightly. Without disturbances, it is difficult for the total inventory to show a significant reduction. Attention should be paid to the impact of tight inventory liquidity of some varieties on prices. At the same time, there are still expectations of geopolitical disturbances, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, after the important meetings, the domestic macro - economy has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital aspects, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, domestic focus should be on the progress of the repair of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas, the market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the US in the first quarter have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4] Viewpoint Summary - Overall, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak situation, with a loose supply, a decrease in molten iron output on the demand side, a delay in the resumption rhythm, and an increase in port inventories [5] - Due to the double disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, iron ore is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure, the short - term downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：中东局势反复，上方仍有空间 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 16 日 【基本面分析】 供应端，古雷 60 万吨装置停车检修，个别装置负荷调整，苯乙烯产量-3.12% 至 36.01 万吨，产能利用率环比-2.32%至 71.79%。需求端，苯乙烯下游开工率 变化不一，其中 EPS 开工率环比-0.98%至 57.78%，PS 开工率环比+0.2%至 51.7%， ABS 开工率环比-2.1%至 67.4%，UPR 开工率环比+3%至 38%，丁苯橡胶开工率环比 -1.76%至 75.65%。库存方面，苯乙烯工厂库存环比-7.70%至 19.19 万吨，华东 港口库存环比-10.88%至 15.65 万吨，华南港口库存环比-3.77%至 5.1 万吨。 【宏观面分析】 1、伊朗外长：欢迎任何能公正结束战争的地区倡议。 2、法国外长将就在霍尔木兹海峡开展联合海军任务与欧盟各国外长进行讨 论。 3、意大利外交部否认英媒有关与伊朗谈判以便让意大利船只通过霍尔木兹 海峡的报道。 4、国家统计局：1—2 月份规模以上工业增加值增长 6.3%，社会消费品零售 总额增长 2.8%。 5、国家统 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, with low cold - storage apple inventory and poor quality, and high cost of May contracts' warehouse receipts, the upward momentum and time for the May apple contract are insufficient. As the key growing season of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on the production of new - season apples, which are expected to increase. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 110.41, down 0.15 from the next - working - day forecast. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.90, up 0.04 [2] - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 8597, up 62 from yesterday's close; AP05 is at 10064, up 66; AP10 is at 8733, up 90. There are also changes in spreads like AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01, AP05, and AP10 all show declines [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Apple Market News** - As of March 12, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from last week and 24.34 million tons from last year, a 4.6% reduction [7] - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 15.65 million tons, a 28.63% increase from the previous month and a 26.76% increase from the same period last year. The import volume is 0.31 million tons, a 21.31% increase from the previous month and a 20.02% increase from the same period last year. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 is 11.68 million tons, a 19.72% increase from the previous year [7] - The main apple market in the producing area remains stable. There are many merchants in the producing area, starting to stock up for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The cold - storage packaging volume is okay, and some cold - storage facilities show reluctance to sell. The market arrivals increase, and the mainstream price remains stable [7] - In Shandong, the price of late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji in the cold - storage is stable. There are merchants packaging in the cold - storage, mainly in the main - producing area. The trading volume in the cold - storage is small. Foreign - trade merchants mainly buy medium - and small - sized fruits. In Qixia, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, with an increase in the number of merchants mainly buying high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the procurement is difficult. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of 70 and above cold - storage paper - bagged Fuji is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty [7] - **Trading Logic**: The May contract has limited upward momentum and time. As the key growing season of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on new - season apple production, which is expected to increase. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy** - For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to exit and wait and see for the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For the option strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract main - contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - bound volume [10][11][14]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an oil and meal daily report released by Guantong Futures on March 16, 2026, focusing on the soybean meal and oil markets [1]. Group 2: Soybean Meal - Marex reported that this week's Brazilian soybean sales to China dropped to only five vessels, even lower than the six - vessel level during the usually quiet Spring Festival. Sales this week dropped about four - fold compared to last week, with about 1.5 million tons sold this Friday (March 13) compared to about 6 million tons last week [1]. - The sharp decline reflects the impact of the change in inspection procedures for grain shipments to China by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture. The Brazilian government is sending an official to China to discuss inspection procedures and phytosanitary regulations [1]. - CONAB's sixth survey of the year predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at a record 177.847 million tons, down 1.38 million tons from last month's forecast, but up 3.7% from last year [2]. - The soybean planting area is 48.435 million hectares, slightly higher than last month's prediction, and up 2.3% year - on - year. The expected yield per hectare is 3,672 kg, down from last month's prediction and up 1.4% year - on - year [2]. - Brazil temporarily canceled a quarantine measure, allowing soybean loading to resume. After last week's high, the market has fallen but the issue is unresolved, and the premium remains. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. Group 3: Oils - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 921,606 tons, a 56.89% increase from the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia's president called on coal, crude palm oil and derivative producers and distributors to prioritize domestic demand before exporting, and the government will implement stricter export controls. The DMO obligation for Indonesian palm oil since August 2024 has been 250,000 tons per month [3]. - With the rise in crude oil prices, bio - fuel policies in Indonesia (B50) and the US are pending. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain strong, but the Middle - East situation at the end of the month should be watched [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran on gold prices, highlighting that gold, as a safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, is expected to benefit from rising prices due to increased geopolitical risks and inflation expectations [4][7]. Group 1: Geopolitical Conflict Analysis - The conflict in Iran is analyzed through five dimensions, indicating that while Iran's economy is small and poses no existential risk, there is a potential for a downgrade in its sovereign credit rating, which could increase gold demand from both official and emerging economies [4][8]. - Historical data from 1970 to present shows that geopolitical conflicts typically lead to short-term price surges in gold, with the current situation likely to follow a similar pattern, particularly influenced by oil supply disruptions [5][22]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Iran - Iran's GDP for the fiscal year 2024/2025 is projected at $436.9 billion, ranking 35th globally, with a forecasted economic contraction of -1.7% and -2.8% for the following two fiscal years, alongside inflation rates expected to exceed 40% [9][11]. - The conflict is not expected to trigger a large-scale refugee crisis, but regional instability may provide moderate support for gold prices through risk premiums and capital flows into developed markets [10][13]. Group 3: Gold Supply and Demand Dynamics - Iran's gold production is minimal, accounting for only 0.23% of global output, which suggests a weak neutral impact on gold prices from supply disruptions [15]. - The estimated gold import for Iran in the fiscal year 2024/2025 is around 100 tons, with some estimates suggesting it could be as high as 260 tons, indicating a potential for local price premiums due to currency devaluation and sanctions [17][19]. Group 4: Energy and Commodity Influence - Iran is a critical player in global energy markets, being the third-largest oil producer in OPEC+ and controlling key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for global oil transport [19][20]. - Disruptions in Iranian oil supply could lead to significant increases in global inflation, thereby enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation [20][22]. Group 5: Historical Context and Price Trends - The article outlines historical patterns of gold price movements in response to geopolitical conflicts, noting that significant price increases often occur after the outbreak of conflicts, particularly during bull market cycles [24][28]. - The analysis categorizes the impact of conflicts on gold prices into three scenarios, emphasizing that the current situation is likely to lead to price increases within a month following the conflict's escalation [64][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, with the yields of maturities below 7Y rising by about 0.6 - 1.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by 1.9bp and 1.8bp respectively, reported at 1.84% and 2.31%. Treasury bond futures also weakened collectively, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL falling by 0.04%, 0.08%, 0.11%, and 0.43% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.45% and fluctuated [4]. - In the domestic fundamental aspect, the social financing credit in February was higher than market expectations. Under the effect of the Spring Festival date difference, the support of government bonds for social financing weakened. Credit showed a structural characteristic of weak residents and strong enterprises, with weak credit expansion of residents and improved enterprise investment willingness under policy guidance. In the first two months of 2026, China's exports increased significantly due to the global manufacturing prosperity and export rush. The CPI in February rebounded unexpectedly, mainly affected by the Spring Festival date difference. The PPI increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, with the capacity governance of key industries showing continuous effects [4]. - Overseas, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the end of the war depends on two conditions: ensuring that the war does not repeat and paying compensation. The US President said that the US military will conduct "severe air strikes" on Iran next week. The tension in the Middle East continues to escalate, and the war may evolve into a long - term and large - scale one. Affected by this, international energy prices and related supply chain prices face upward pressure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was slightly lower than expected, but the pressure on the labor market was not alleviated. As energy prices continue to rise, the risk of "stagflation - like" in the US economy is increasing, and the prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut is more uncertain [4]. - Overall, the domestic price level in February rose unexpectedly, and combined with the continuous fermentation of the Iranian situation, the expectation of imported inflation has strengthened marginally. The rhythm of the year - on - year return to positive of PPI in the future will accelerate, and the adjustment pressure of inflation factors on the bond market is emerging. In addition, under the self - regulatory mechanism of inter - bank deposit pricing, the interest rates of more than 10 trillion deposits may be lowered, which is expected to drive the short - term interest rates to decline further. With the interweaving of long and short factors, interest rates will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the long - and short - end trends will diverge [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.120, 105.885, 102.432, and 110.630 respectively, with decreases of 0.11%, 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.43% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 95024, 73191, 37358, and 86755, with increases of 24937, 20328, 12767, and 19595 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2606 - 2609, T2606 - 2609, TF2606 - 2609, and TS2606 - 2609 were 0.27, 0.03, 0.17, and - 0.03 respectively, with changes of - 0.02, + 0.01, - 0.02, and - 0.01 respectively. Other spreads such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 281604, 171673, 75792, and 131699 respectively, with increases of 1152, 3014, 3552, and 983 respectively. The net positions of the top 20 long and short positions of each contract also changed to different degrees [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 230012.IB, 250025.IB, etc. had corresponding fluctuations, among which 250024.IB increased by 0.0043 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds were 1.2600%, 1.3700%, 1.5500%, 1.6825%, and 1.8225% respectively, with changes of 1.25bp, - 0.50bp, 0.75bp, 1.25bp, and 1.15bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.3679%, 1.4856%, and 1.4800% respectively, with changes of 2.24bp, 1.35bp, and - 1.73bp respectively. The Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.3200%, 1.4410%, and 1.4950% respectively, with changes of - 0.10bp, - 1.60bp, and 0.00bp respectively [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates were 3.00% and 3.5% respectively, with no change [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 1373 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 485 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The State Council Executive Meeting discussed and passed the "Division of Key Work of the State Council in 2026" and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [2]. - The central bank announced that in the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 316.2 billion yuan. At the end of February, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 8.2% year - on - year. In February, the average interest rates of newly issued loans for enterprises and newly issued housing loans for individuals were both about 3.1% [2][3]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to France from March 14th to 17th to hold the sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and consultations [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The South China Composite Index rose 0.11% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1] - Among the sector indices, the South China Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 1.3%, and the South China Non - ferrous Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.04%. The South China Precious Metal Index had the largest decline of - 1.95%, and the South China Metal Index had the smallest decline of - 0.07% [1] - Among the theme indices, the Petroleum and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 2.72%, and the Economic Crop Index had the smallest increase of 0.45%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of - 0.15%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of - 0.03% [1] Group 2: Index Market Data - The South China Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 3077.03, up 0.79% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 20.61% and an annualized volatility of 14.89% [3] - The South China Precious Metal Index (NHPMI) closed at 2301.66, down - 0.76% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 110.66% and an annualized volatility of 31.86% [3] - The South China Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 4106.95, up 1.20% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 8.25% and an annualized volatility of 16.21% [3] - The South China Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 7238.22, up 0.11% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 13.17% and an annualized volatility of 14.31% [3] - The South China Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1920.92, up 2.16% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 5.96% and an annualized volatility of 20.76% [3] - The South China Non - ferrous Metal Index (NHNF) closed at 2077.14, down - 0.06% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 25.81% and an annualized volatility of 18.17% [3] - The South China Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2553.25, up 0.70% from the previous day, with an annualized return of - 3.40% and an annualized volatility of 16.01% [3] - The South China Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1112.48, up 1.03% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 3.60% and an annualized volatility of 7.94% [3] - The South China Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1886.34, up 0.21% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 6.44% and an annualized volatility of 23.54% [3] - The South China Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 1362.33, down - 0.05% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 13.13% and an annualized volatility of 48.41% [3] - The South China Petroleum and Chemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 1154.16, up 4.89% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 10.46% and an annualized volatility of 28.62% [3] - The South China Coal - based Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 1126.11, up 4.23% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 8.53% and an annualized volatility of 29.54% [3] - The South China Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1071.94, up 1.00% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 0.31% and an annualized volatility of 17.59% [3] - The South China Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 714.50, up 2.05% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 1.40% and an annualized volatility of 13.96% [3] - The South China Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) closed at 1334.24, up 1.79% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 4.12% and an annualized volatility of 14.05% [3] - The South China Economic Crop Index (NHAECI) closed at 982.56, up 0.44% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 2.75% and an annualized volatility of 10.43% [3] Group 3: Single - variety Index - Among single - variety indices, the asphalt had the largest increase of 9%, and the rapeseed meal had the largest decline of - 4.21% [4] Group 4: Calculation Rules - The daily change in the report is the ratio of the closing price of the current day to the closing price of the previous day, and the contribution is the product of the change and the weight [7] - The South China Commodity Index eliminates the spread when the commodity contract is rolled over, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [7] - The contribution calculation method used in the report is: the daily change of a certain variety / ∑|the daily change of each variety| [7]