在美国芝商所两次上调保证金之后，黄金白银等贵金属大幅震荡下，仍然保持高位上冲姿态，铜、铝等 基本金属则在不断刷新历史高位。 在经过2025年超60%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白 银仍然充满想象力。而国投白银LOF（161226）份额仍在创下历史高点。相对于贵金属而言，期货市场 资金更偏爱铜铝等基本金属，特别是铜在两个交易日资金大幅净流入。 白银比黄金还有想象空间 清和泉资本认为，2026年最大的投资机会之一，就是战略资源股，如铜、铝、煤等。当前这些上游品种 供需均处于平衡或紧缺的状态，中上游品种则依托中国成本优势，盈利水平处于历史高位，而且这些行 业均存在具备全球竞争力的企业，包括成本水平、管理水平等，其中铜的公司成长属性高一点，铝和煤 炭的价值属性更突出；这些行业中，估值低的品种PE在10倍左右，高的在15倍左右，中期性价比依然 十分可观。 1月6日，国内黄金主力2602合约收盘时，报价继续站上1000元/克关口上方。而白银主力2604合约，收 盘价格创下历史新高，报19452元/千克，涨幅7.06%，成交量和持仓量均大幅增长，其中成交量增加了 125.8万 ...

在经过2025年超64%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白银仍然 充满想象力。比如，美国银行金属研究报告认为，黄金今年仍将是关键的投资组合对冲工具，预计2026年黄金 均价将达到每盎司4538美元（目前已经4458美元），而白银价格可能飙升至每盎司135至309美元的峰值区间。 在美国芝商所两次上调保证金之后，黄金白银等贵金属大幅震荡下，仍然保持高位上冲姿态，铜、铝等基 本金属则在不断刷新历史高位。 在经过2025年超60%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白银仍然 充满想象力。而国投白银LOF（161226）份额仍在创下历史高点。相对于贵金属而言，期货市场资金更偏爱铜 铝等基本金属，特别是铜在两个交易日资金大幅净流入。 白银比黄金还有想象空间 1月6日，国内黄金主力2602合约收盘时，报价继续站上1000元/克关口上方。而白银主力2604合约，收盘价格 创下历史新高，报19452元/千克，涨幅7.06%，成交量和持仓量均大幅增长，其中成交量增加了125.8万手，持 仓量大幅增加了3.8万手，在5日23.9万手基础上升高到2 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the convertible bond market in January 2026, driven by policy expectations and seasonal capital inflows, which are expected to create a "good start" for the market [6][17] - The central economic work conference has identified "technological innovation" and "expanding domestic demand" as key policy focuses, with related industry policy benefits expected to continue, directly boosting market risk appetite [6][17] - The convertible bond market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with the total size of publicly traded convertible bonds at approximately 527.1 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025, down 183.6 billion yuan from the beginning of 2025 [19] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on growth styles in investment strategies, particularly in technology sectors such as aerospace, AI computing, semiconductor equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from industry policy support [6][20] - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for January 2026 emphasizes aggressive and elastic sectors, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical recovery, and financial sectors [6][20] - Specific recommendations include increasing holdings in convertible bonds from companies like Yinbang, Zhenhua, and Yingliu in the technology sector, and focusing on cyclical sectors such as precious metals and chemicals [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The price dynamics of silver and oil have diverged significantly, with silver prices surging while oil prices remain subdued, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 6, 2026, COMEX silver futures are trading around $77 per ounce, while WTI crude oil futures are at $58 per barrel, resulting in a silver-to-oil ratio of approximately 1.3 [1]. - Over the past six months, oil prices have dropped over 32% from a high of $74 per barrel to a low of $50, while silver prices have doubled from around $40 per ounce to a peak of $80 [2]. - The last time silver was more expensive than oil was about 45 years ago, with historical instances showing significant fluctuations in the silver-to-oil ratio [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current silver-to-oil ratio fluctuates between 1.2 and 1.3, with silver showing strong rebound momentum despite a recent drop from its historical high [3]. - Financial institutions are increasing their net long positions in COMEX silver futures, indicating strong bullish sentiment, while oil prices are experiencing a decline due to oversupply concerns [3][5]. - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has limited impact on oil prices, as the country’s production capacity is currently low, and global supply remains excessive [3][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The contrasting performance of silver and oil reflects a re-evaluation of their values amid changing supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions [4]. - Silver is increasingly recognized for its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and solar energy, which are expected to drive demand, although growth in solar installations is projected to slow down [4][5]. - Oil supply remains weak globally, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration projecting record-high oil production, reinforcing expectations of oversupply in the market [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the silver-to-oil ratio may remain above 1.0, significant further increases are unlikely, with key factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and global energy policies influencing future price relationships [5].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with Zijin Mining's market capitalization surpassing 1 trillion yuan for the first time, and Luoyang Molybdenum reaching a historical high [1][3] - The popular non-ferrous metal ETF, Huabao (159876), saw a maximum intraday increase of 4.4%, closing up 4.21%, marking four consecutive days of gains [1] - The ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a total turnover of 72.79 million yuan, a 47% increase compared to the previous period [1] Group 2 - The titanium dioxide industry has seen a joint price increase announcement, leading to a surge in stocks such as Anning Co. and Vanadium Titanium Co. [3] - As of January 5, 2025 earnings forecasts for four leading companies in the non-ferrous metal sector predict double-digit growth in net profits year-on-year, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a growth of 59% to 62% [3][4] - Longjiang Securities anticipates that the price increase and liquidity will create a favorable environment for precious metals, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to see a strong performance due to economic recovery and supply-demand optimization [4][6] Group 3 - The Huabao non-ferrous metal ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the sector's beta performance [4] - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 39 million units in a single day, following a total net inflow of 56.48 million yuan over the previous four days, indicating strong market interest [1][3] - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metal sector is optimistic, with expectations of a "super cycle" driven by various market dynamics [4]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 1.77% on January 6, with Hunan Silver leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] - Hunan Silver's closing price was 8.06, reflecting a rise of 5.91%, with a trading volume of 3.8179 million shares [1] Group 2 - The main funds in the precious metals sector experienced a net outflow of 329 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 313 million yuan [1] - The table of fund flows indicates that retail investors contributed significantly to the net inflow, contrasting with the outflows from main and speculative funds [2] - Hunan Silver had a net outflow of 18.8844 million yuan from main funds but a net inflow of 98.5667 million yuan from speculative funds [2]

1月6日，A股、港股延续"开门红"行情继续走高，沪指罕见13连阳刷新纪录。黄金白银续演超牛行情，白银大涨超3%，黄金站上4460美 元。 沪指罕见13连阳 商业航天、脑机接口概念狂飙 具体来看，A股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，上证指数收涨1.5%，实现13连阳，创出史上最长连阳纪录，创逾10年新高。 全市场逾4100股上涨，其中有143只个股涨停，连续两日超百股涨停。沪深两市成交额2.83万亿元，创逾三个月新高。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4083.67 | 14022.55 | 1720.41 | | +60.25 +1.50% | +193.92 +1.40% | +24.57 +1.45% | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6641.77 | 3319.29 | 1493.04 | | +103.82 +1.59% +24.74 +0.75% +26.62 +1.82% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4790.69 | 7814.14 | 5860.20 | | +72.95 +1 ...

Group 1 - The silver market has reached a critical level with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hitting 93.86, the highest since January 1980, indicating an overheated market [1] - Silver futures closed at 18,131 CNY per kilogram on December 25, 2025, with a daily increase of 5.50%, reflecting multiple instances of significant daily fluctuations throughout December [1] - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce and silver's annual increase nearing 150% [3] Group 2 - The surge in precious metals is driven by a shift in global monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve completing three rate cuts totaling 175 basis points in 2025, leading to a lower opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver [3] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and escalating conflicts in Europe, have added a strong safe-haven premium to precious metals [3] - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China adding over 41 tons in the past 13 months, contributing to a global gold ETF holding nearing 4,000 tons [3] Group 3 - The imbalance in supply and demand is a key factor for silver's leadership in the market, with industrial demand rising by 15% due to a 30% increase in global photovoltaic installations, while supply has faced a shortfall of 187.6 million ounces [4] - The capital market's influx of funds has amplified the price surge, with the China Universal Silver Futures LOF fund seeing a premium of 45% over its net asset value [4] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculation in the silver futures market, including trading limits and increased transaction fees [5] Group 4 - The soaring prices of precious metals are beginning to suppress consumer demand, with rising costs affecting purchasing decisions for items like platinum jewelry [7] - There are significant divergences in predictions for the precious metals market in 2026, with forecasts for gold prices ranging from $4,900 to over $5,000 per ounce, and some predictions suggesting gold could reach $10,000 [7] - Analysts caution that the current market dynamics are driven more by sentiment and capital flows rather than solid supply-demand fundamentals, indicating potential risks for a rapid price correction [9]

沪指罕见13连阳 商业航天、脑机接口概念狂飙 1月6日，A股、港股延续"开门红"行情继续走高，沪指罕见13连阳刷新纪录。黄金白银续演超牛行情，白银大涨超3%，黄金站上4460美 元。 具体来看，A股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，上证指数收涨1.5%，实现13连阳，创出史上最长连阳纪录，创逾10年新高。 全市场逾4100股上涨，其中有143只个股涨停，连续两日超百股涨停。沪深两市成交额2.83万亿元，创逾三个月新高。 板块方面，商业航天概念全天强势，十余只成分股涨停，鲁信创投（600783）8天6板，北斗星通（002151）、中国卫通（601698）6天4 板，金风科技（002202）走出7天3板。 分析：与AI竞赛夺关键资源趋势相关 有色金属板块表现活跃，洛阳钼业（603993）、紫金矿业（601899）等多股创历史新高，其中紫金矿业涨逾6%，总市值突破万亿元。 在牛市氛围下，登云股份（002715）（002715.SZ）开盘即遭遇跌停，总市值较前一交易日大幅缩水，为当前A股市场唯一非ST跌停股。消 息面上，登云股份1月5日晚间公告称，公司实际控制人杨涛被逮捕，其涉嫌罪名为非法吸收公众存款罪。 港股方面，截至1 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have risen to $4,450 per ounce due to heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2] - The overall demand for precious metals remains strong, with silver prices also increasing [1] - Platinum is testing resistance levels between $2,245 and $2,265, indicating active market performance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela, which is influencing the demand for precious metals [1][3] - The dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [2] - Investors anticipate at least two interest rate cuts this year, which could enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - If gold can maintain levels above $4,450, it may target the next resistance level at $4,540 to $4,550 [3] - Silver has gained strong upward momentum, with a potential breakout above the resistance zone of $77.50 to $78.00, which could lead to further gains towards $83.50 to $84.00 [3] - Platinum's current testing of the $2,245 to $2,265 resistance level could lead to further upward movement towards $2,510 to $2,530 if successful [3]