交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1215元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1170元/吨，基差为45元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The steel market is facing challenges as the traditional off - season approaches. Although high hot metal production and raw material cost support the market, demand is under pressure due to factors like policy changes, weak investment data, and potential anti - dumping measures [3]. - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with price elasticity remaining low. The supply is abundant, and the demand is better than expected, so the iron ore price is likely to be stable in the short term [18]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [35]. - Ferroalloys are expected to remain weak as the cost is likely to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but they may be affected by news when the valuation is too low [51]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Although there are short - term production fluctuations due to maintenance, it does not change the overall pattern. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening [64]. - The glass market has a weak short - term fundamental and cost support. Although there is an expectation of increased cold - repair if the low price persists, there is no obvious driving force currently [92]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2978, 2980, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3100, 3093, and 3102 yuan/ton respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil basis widened, and the term structure changed from contango to back [4][19]. - **Market Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the price of coal, but the steel demand is facing a test in the off - season. There is pressure on the coil and sheet market in some regions, and the steel export may face more anti - dumping pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 670.5 yuan/ton. The term structure of iron ore flattened, and the backwardation of the far - month contracts slightly increased [20][19]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to remain high, with shipments exceeding the seasonal average by over 300,000 tons. The demand is better than expected, and the hot metal production is likely to remain around 2.4 million tons [18]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 791 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1293 yuan/ton. The term structure of coking coal flattened, and the premium of the far - month contracts narrowed [36]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing [35]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 110 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 274 yuan/ton. The ferroalloy positions have decreased, and some funds have left the market [54][55]. - **Market Situation**: The silicon - iron has a production - cut driving force as the profit is at the bottom of the range, while the silicon - manganese profit has improved. The overall situation is weak due to factors such as cost reduction expectations and the off - season [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1170, and 1159 yuan/ton respectively. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high [66][64]. - **Market Situation**: The production has recovered to over 700,000 tons, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. The price needs further decline in the spot market to fall further [64]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1084, 980, and 1038 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative apparent demand of glass has dropped by nearly 10% [93]. - **Market Situation**: The supply has a situation of both ignition and cold - repair. The short - term fundamental and cost support are weak, and there is no obvious driving force [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session is 1159 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1210 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 51 yuan, with a 41.67% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants is gradually resuming, and the supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.01 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.58 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high. The weekly industry operating rate is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [2][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale production capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 100 tons [20]. 3.3.2 Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.04%. The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.57 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [23][26][29]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of the soda ash industry has changed. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the operating rate is 78.20%, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, the total demand is 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 tons [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - In the context of expected supply increase and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short position at 14,000 and monitor the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - In June, industrial silicon still faces a weak fundamental situation of oversupply, and the price remains under pressure. Recently, the rebound in coal prices brings an expectation of rising raw material prices, which supports the price, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [4]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the atmosphere at the Shanghai PV exhibition is bearish. However, due to the low price, hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the pressure level around 35,000 yuan/ton. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the excess pattern is obvious, and there will be further profit - reduction. After the photovoltaic rush - installation, the growth of photovoltaic capacity has slowed down, and the overall demand has not increased significantly. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. - For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure in the future, and the industry needs capacity clearance. The 09 contract fluctuates around 1000 points, and a short - term bearish strategy can be considered [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 13,900 yuan/ton. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 140%. The Thai standard mixed rubber quote remained at 13,750 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 28%. The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.40 Thai baht/kg to 47.45 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85%. The FOB mid - price of glue in the international market remained at 56.75 yuan/ton. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 13,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.15%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan remained at 12,400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price of imported rubber raw materials in Hainan remained at 9,000 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.8%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 72 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.18%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to 915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 435,000 tons to 1.057 million tons, a decline of 29.16%. Indonesia's production decreased by 15,200 tons to 194,100 tons, a decline of 7.26%. India's production decreased by 7,600 tons to 45,400 tons, a decline of 14.34%. China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 4.12 percentage points to 77.98%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points to 61.24%. In April, the domestic tire production decreased by 5.444 million pieces to 102.002 million pieces, a decline of 5.07%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in April decreased by 490,000 pieces to 5.739 million pieces, a decline of 7.87%. The total import volume of natural rubber in April decreased by 70,900 tons to 523,200 tons, a decline of 11.93%. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in May decreased by 83,000 tons to 607,000 tons, a decline of 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) decreased by 4,100 tons to 1,011,111 tons, a decline of 0.67%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 13,003 tons to 34,876 tons, an increase of 59.45%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points to 3.34%, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points to 4.83%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao increased by 0.82 percentage points to 7.76%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 7.18% [2]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 8,150 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.83%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 8,700 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on SI4210) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.72%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 7,600 yuan/ton, and the basis (in Xinjiang) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1,055 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.64% [4]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 7,260 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.84%. The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.29%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 50%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 175%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.09% [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6,900 tons to 307,700 tons, an increase of 2.29%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 4,400 tons to 163,100 tons, a decline of 2.6%. Yunnan's production decreased by 3,400 tons to 10,000 tons, a decline of 25.43%. Sichuan's production increased by 12,400 tons to 23,700 tons, an increase of 109.47%. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 2,100 tons to 46,100 tons, an increase of 4.78%. Ningxia's production increased by 3,500 tons to 23,500 tons, an increase of 17.5%. The production of 97 - grade silicon decreased by 7,200 tons to 4,800 tons, a decline of 60%. The production of recycled silicon increased by 500 tons to 16,500 tons, an increase of 3.12%. The production of silicone DMC in May increased by 11,200 tons to 184,000 tons, an increase of 6.48%. The production of polysilicon in May increased by 700 tons to 96,100 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy in May decreased by 400 tons to 60,600 tons, a decline of 0.66%. The export volume of industrial silicon in April increased by 100 tons to 6,050 tons, an increase of 1.64% [4]. Inventory Changes - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 410 tons to 18,670 tons, a decline of 2.15%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 70 tons to 2,580 tons, an increase of 2.79%. The inventory in Sichuan increased by 10 tons to 2,310 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 57,200 tons, a decline of 2.56%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 550 tons to 28,410 tons, a decline of 1.89%. The non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 950 tons to 28,790 tons, a decline of 3.2% [4]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained at 35,500 yuan/ton, the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained at 29,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 33,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 34.63%. The cauliflower material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 7,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.01%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm remained at 1.27 yuan/piece, the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210R remained at 1.06 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal Topcon battery wafers of 210R remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal PERC battery wafers of 182mm remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of Topcon components of 210mm (distributed) remained at 0.699 yuan/watt, and the average price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects remained at 0.686 yuan/watt [5]. - The PS2506 contract price increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 720 yuan/ton to 1,690 yuan/ton, a decline of 29.88%. The PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 290 yuan/ton to 1,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.35%. The PS2508 - PS2509 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2509 - PS2510 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 265 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46%. The PS2510 - PS2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2511 - PS2512 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 1,605 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.06 GW to 13.1 GW, an increase of 0.46%. The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 tons to 2.38 tons, an increase of 8.18%. The monthly polysilicon production in May increased by 0.07 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The polysilicon import volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.29 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The polysilicon export volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.2 tons, a decline of 10.4%. The net export volume of polysilicon in April remained at - 0.09 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 27.5 tons, an increase of 2.23%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.68 GW to 19.34 GW, a decline of 3.4%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 2,600 tons [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - The glass price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,130 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The price in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,230 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%. The price in Central China remained at 1,070 yuan/ton. The price in South China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,290 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%. The glass 2505 contract price decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,077 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.37%. The glass 2509 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.17% [6]. - The soda ash price in North China remained at 1,400 yuan/ton, the price in East China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, the price in Central China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,030 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%. The soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,204 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%. The soda ash 2509 contract price decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,156 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%. The 05 basis increased by 8 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26% [6]. Supply and Demand Data - The soda ash operating rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.9%, and the weekly production increased by 5,510 tons to 74,010 tons, an increase of 8.04%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 100 tons to 15,570 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 98,990 tons, a decline of 1%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 1 yuan to 20 yuan, a decline of 4.76% [6]. Inventory Changes - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 192,300 weight - boxes to 6,968,500 weight - boxes, an increase of 2.84%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 62,000 tons to 168,630 tons, an increase of 3.82%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 32,710 tons, a decline of 5.87%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.9 days to 21 days, an increase of 15.91% [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%, the year - on - year growth rate of construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%, the year - on - year growth rate of completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%, and the year

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to operate under weak conditions, with prices remaining stable or declining slightly across various regions, reflecting a lack of demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [2][3]. Price Analysis - As of June 16, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1380 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1300-1440 CNY/ton. In East China, light soda ash is priced at 1240-1490 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1320-1420 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on June 16 is 1252.86, down by 10 points or -0.79% from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index is 1297.14, down by 1.43 points or -0.11% [3]. Market Dynamics - The overall supply in the industry remains high, with companies like Huachang Chemical returning to normal operations. However, the demand side is weak, with downstream buyers adopting a cautious purchasing strategy, preferring lower-priced sources [2]. - The main futures contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1152 CNY/ton and closed at 1174 CNY/ton on June 16, showing an intraday increase of 0.86%. The total open interest decreased by 59,463 contracts [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash industry is experiencing a gradual increase in operating rates, leading to further supply expansion. However, persistent weak demand from downstream sectors is causing inventory levels to rise [6]. - In the context of a continuously loose supply-demand balance, soda ash prices are expected to maintain a low and fluctuating trend, with potential for slight declines in certain regions [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1174元/吨，基差为36元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward at a low level. The supply of soda ash increased slightly while the demand was weak. Considering the high inventory, it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 last week was 1,156 yuan/ton, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease [2]. - The industry's production capacity is operating normally with a slight increase in supply. The expected output next week is 760,000 tons, and the operating rate will rise to around 87% [2]. - The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,100 tons to 155,700 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 480 tons to 98,300 tons. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the overall consumption volume fluctuates little [2]. - As of June 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,686,300 tons, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, and the daily melting volume is decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Weekly Quotes | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,212 | 1,252 | 40 | | Current Value | 1,156 | 1,200 | 44 | | Change Rate | - 4.62% | - 4.15% | 10.00% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease from the previous week [13]. - The profit of the combined soda - making method for heavy soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [16]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, including 405,800 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output falling from a historical high [20]. - The weekly heavy - soda production rate of soda ash is 54.83% [22]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [29]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1,686,300 tons, including 875,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the supply - demand gap, growth rate, etc. [36]

纯碱早报 2025-6-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1156元/吨，基差为44元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产 ...