Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing concerns about persistent inflation despite market expectations for a rate decrease in September [2][6][11]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market speculation suggests a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, but Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expresses concerns about inflation not being fully under control [2][5]. - Current U.S. benchmark interest rates are between 4.25% and 4.5%, with ongoing debates about the Fed's monetary policy direction [5][6]. Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee highlights that inflation has remained above target for over four years, with recent signs of rising service sector prices indicating that inflationary pressures may still exist [6][10]. - He warns against the "temporary inflation" narrative that misled experts in 2021, stressing the importance of addressing underlying inflation risks [6][10]. Employment Market Stability - Goolsbee presents the "four horsemen" indicators (unemployment rate, hiring rate, layoff rate, and job vacancy rate) to illustrate that the U.S. job market remains stable [6][9]. - The latest unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, indicating a low level of unemployment post-COVID [9]. Market Reactions and Financial Conditions - The article notes that despite claims of tight monetary policy, financial conditions appear loose, with stock markets reaching new highs [9][10]. - Goolsbee cautions that premature rate cuts could lead to a repeat of past mistakes, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on long-term price levels [10][11]. Long-term Interest Rate Expectations - The article discusses the shift in perceptions of the "neutral interest rate," suggesting that higher long-term rates may persist due to rising fiscal deficits and global debt levels [10][11]. - Investors are advised to be cautious with long-duration bonds and to reassess stock valuations, especially for high-growth, interest-sensitive stocks [10][11]. Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should seek structural opportunities amid macroeconomic uncertainties, rather than following market trends blindly [11][12]. - A stable job market could support consumer spending, indicating potential resilience in certain sectors [11][12].

天眼查App显示，近日，湖北本末蕲艾科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为邓文斌，注册资本100万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：信息技术咨询服务，技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转 让、技术推广，第一类医疗器械生产，第一类医疗器械销售，第二类医疗器械销售，农产品的生产、销 售、加工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务，中草药种植，中草药收购，地产中草药（不含中药饮片）购 销，食品销售（仅销售预包装食品），卫生用品和一次性使用医疗用品销售，个人卫生用品销售，化妆 品零售，化妆品批发，互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品），工艺美术品及礼仪用品销售（象牙及其 制品除外），工艺美术品及礼仪用品制造（象牙及其制品除外），中医养生保健服务（非医疗），养生 保健服务（非医疗），食品互联网销售（仅销售预包装食品），日用百货销售，日用品批发，日用品销 售，农副产品销售，日用化学产品销售，化工产品销售（不含许可类化工产品），生物化工产品技术。 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/27 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： Anec：巴西8月大豆出口量料为890万吨 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）表示，巴西8月大豆出口量料为890万吨，前一周预估为894万吨。巴西8月豆粕出 口量料为213万吨，前一周预估为233万吨。 SPPOMA：马来西亚8月1-25日棕榈油产量环比下滑1.21% 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）发布的数据显示，2025年8月1-25日，马来西亚棕榈油产量环比下滑1.21%， 鲜果串单产下降3.26%，出油率增加0.40%。 主 产 国 降 水 情 况 进 口 大 豆 盘 面 压 榨 利 润 油 脂 进 口 利 润 现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/20 | 3000 | 2630 | 8530 | 9500 | 9950 | | 2025/08/21 | 2990 | 2580 | 8550 | 9450 | 9910 | | 2025/08/22 | ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/27 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/20 2230 | 2210 | 2454 | 2380 | 40 | 35 300 | 2850 | 2980 | 366 | -25 | | 2025/08/21 2230 | 2210 | 2446 | 2380 | 44 | 30 302 | 2850 | 2980 | 371 | -25 | | 2025/08/22 2230 | 2190 | 2434 | 2360 | 15 | 30 258 | 2850 | 2980 | 357 | -5 | | 2025/08/25 2230 | 2210 | 2434 | 2360 | 56 | 10 254 | 2850 | 2930 | 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. The extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may have an impact on sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required. [1][3] - The cotton in most parts of the country is in the peak flowering period, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price is supported at the bottom. [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,950 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,860 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,100 yuan. [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.42, with a change of 0.18%. US cotton closed at 66.67, with a change of - 1.05%. [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: The demand for sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is high and the precipitation is low, so the risk of heat damage to cotton is relatively high. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price has bottom support. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 15,315, with a change of - 0.45%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6,977, with a change of - 1.79%. [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar: On August 25, 2025, it was 16.39 dollars, and on August 26, 2025, it was 16.42 dollars, with a change of 0.18%. - US cotton: On August 25, 2025, it was 67.38 dollars, and on August 26, 2025, it was 66.67 dollars, with a change of - 1.05%. [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On August 25, 2025, it was 5,970 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 5,950 yuan, with a change of - 0.34%. - Sugar (Kunming): On August 25, 2025, it was 5,860 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 5,860 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. - Cotton Index 328: On August 25, 2025, it was 3,281, and on August 26, 2025, it was 3,280, with a change of 0.65%. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On August 25, 2025, it was 15,100 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 15,100 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05: On August 25, 2025, it was 42.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 33.0, with a change of - 21.43%. - SR05 - 09: On August 25, 2025, it was - 74.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was - 79.0, with a change of 6.76%. - SR09 - 01: On August 25, 2025, it was 32.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 46.0, with a change of 43.75%. - CF01 - 05: On August 25, 2025, it was 45.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 45.0, with a change of 0.00%. - CF05 - 09: On August 25, 2025, it was 275.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 275.0, with a change of 0.00%. - CF09 - 01: On August 25, 2025, it was - 320.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was - 320.0, with a change of 0.00%. - Sugar 01 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 172.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 228.0, with a change of 32.56%. - Sugar 05 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 214.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 261.0, with a change of 21.96%. - Sugar 09 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 140.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 182.0, with a change of 30.00%. - Cotton 01 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,115.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,234.0, with a change of 10.67%. - Cotton 05 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,160.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,279.0, with a change of 10.26%. - Cotton 09 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,435.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,554.0, with a change of 8.29%. [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On August 25, 2025, it was 78.9, and on August 26, 2025, it was 78.9, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,515.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,515.0, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Options - SR601C5600: Implied volatility is 0.0865, and the futures underlying is SR601, with a historical volatility of 6.38. - SR601P5600: Implied volatility is 0.0863. - CF601C14000: Implied volatility is 0.1046, and the futures underlying is CF601, with a historical volatility of 5.63. - CF601P14000: Implied volatility is 0.1048. [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On August 25, 2025, it was 15,385.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 15,315.0, with a change of - 0.45%. - Cotton: On August 25, 2025, it was 7,104.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 6,977.0, with a change of - 1.79%. [4]

油脂产业期现日报 | 田川 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 狱跌 | 张庆幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8740 | 8740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8536 | 8536 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 204 | 204 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏8月 | 01+220 | 01+200 | 20 | ு | | | 仓单 | | 15760 | 15760 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9470 | 9620 | -150 | -1.56% | | | 期价 | P2601 | 9424 | d488 | -64 | -0.67% | | | 墓差 | P2601 | 46 | 132 | -86 | -65.15% | | ...

由商务部、中国国际贸易促进委员会、吉林省政府共同主办的第十五届中国—东北亚博览会于8月 27日至31日在吉林省长春市举办。 省商务厅相关负责人表示，全省商务系统将以此次参会为契机，继续夯实各类国内外展洽平台，叫 响"辽望全球品行天下"展览主题，助力外贸企业抢抓订单、多元化开拓国际市场，不断扩大辽宁产品在 国内国际市场的美誉度、影响力。 8月26日，省商务厅相关负责人表示，本届活动，我省在开放合作馆设立150平方米辽宁特装形象展 区，组织近30家企业参展，集中展示我省机电、纺织服装、农产品、轻工日用品等优质特色产品，以展 促贸，助力企业深耕东北亚国家市场，提升辽宁对外开放形象。 东北亚博览会是目前世界上唯一由东北亚区域六国共同参与并面向全球开放的国际性综合博览会， 今年恰逢中国—东北亚博览会创办20周年。本届博览会以"携手东北亚开放赢未来"为主题，展馆总面积 7.3万平方米，7万余种国内外品牌商品将在线上线下集中展示。加强产业对接、产供链合作成为本届博 览会的一大特点，现场首次设立"现代化产业馆"，汇聚"世界500强""中国500强"与专精特新企业。 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26%. The overall market showed mixed performance with a total trading volume of approximately 2.71 trillion yuan, indicating a slight contraction in market activity [2][11][24]. Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but saw a rebound before a slight drop at the close. The leading sectors included agricultural products (+2.62%), media and internet (+1.40%), and social services (+1.31%). Conversely, sectors such as comprehensive finance (-1.14%) and healthcare (-1.08%) faced declines [7][11][23]. - The trading volume decreased by 467.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with 2,802 stocks rising [11][24]. Sector Analysis - The agricultural products sector led the gains, driven by news regarding the stabilization of the pig market and the announcement of central frozen pork reserves by the National Development and Reform Commission. Other strong performers included media and internet, social services, and chemicals [11][12]. - High valuation stocks saw a retreat, particularly in sectors like comprehensive finance, healthcare, and telecommunications [11][12]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, suggesting that monetary and fiscal support policies may still be forthcoming. Historical trends indicate that domestic policy interventions can help mitigate external risks and market volatility [11]. - Investment strategies should focus on non-bank financial sectors, AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, while also considering sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics such as metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [11].

吴学军认为,中小品牌是农业品牌体系的重要组成部分,但往往面临着品牌知名度低、市场渠道窄等问 题。"齐鲁农超"关注到了中小品牌的需求,通过精准扶持,为中小品牌提供了成长空间,有利于激发农业市 场活力,促进农业产业的多元化发展。 在李琪看来,从安丘农耕的区域品牌崛起,到微山湖小龙虾、黄河口大闸蟹等地方品牌闪耀,再到金凤活珠 子、临朐鹅肝等品牌破圈,"齐鲁农超"在农业品牌建设方面取得了显著成效。"'齐鲁农超'的经验在于,它 不是自己做品牌,而是搭建了让好品牌成长的土壤,层层递进的赋能体系,让山东农业品牌从'星星点点'变 成'燎原之势'。" 据了解,为进一步促进农业农村消费,培育打造农产品精品品牌,推介展示山东名优特精农产品,全面提 升"齐鲁农超"影响力,展示山东省在乡村振兴战略实施过程中取得的显著成果,"齐鲁农超"将于8月28日在 山东济南开展"2025山东名优特精农产品发布暨'齐鲁农超'建设推进会"活动,聚焦山东农业高质量发展的 关键环节和领域,共同探讨发展过程中的先进模式和成功经验。记者于泊升边艺 在"齐鲁农超"的平台上,不仅有区域公共品牌和知名地方品牌,还有许多默默发展但群众认知少的品牌也 在这里找到了发展机 ...

今年前6个月，泰国与阿根廷的贸易总额达10.8亿美元，其中泰国出口8.83 亿美元，同比增长24.2%。 （原标题：泰国与阿根廷加强经济联系） 主要出口产品包括汽车、汽车零部件和配件；内燃活塞发动机及其零件； 机械及零部件；钢铁制品以及橡胶制品。泰国进口总额为 1.99亿美元，主要产 品包括新鲜、冷藏和冷冻的水生动物；动植物产品；植物及植物产品；以及药 品、线绳与纤维。 据曼谷邮报8月26日报道,泰国正在寻求加强与阿根廷的贸易和投资机会， 特别是在汽车及其零部件、食品和消费品出口方面。 泰国国际促进贸易司副司长周二与阿根廷经济部副部长举行了会谈。双方 讨论了加强两国经济合作的可能性，以纪念建交70周年。 阿根廷表示有兴趣开放其市场，接纳泰国农产品，特别是芒果和椰子等水 果。该国实施了自由贸易政策，降低了本国无法生产的商品的进口税，并允许 更多的进口商品以解决通货膨胀问题。 ...