农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月22日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 【交易策略】 假期海 ...

20260224申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 申银万国期货研究所 黄莹(执业编号：F3053602；投资咨询编号：Z0015364） huangying@sywgqh.com.cn 行 业 信 息 评 论 及 策 略 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 5222 | 5211 | 5213 | 14.47 | 13.98 | 14.29 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 5259 | 5254 | 5251 | 14.3 | 13.83 | 14.13 | | | 涨跌 | -37 | -43 | -38 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.16 | | 期 | 涨跌幅% | -0.70 | -0.82 | -0.72 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.13 | | 货 | 持仓量 ...

在外需承压的背景下，内需成为稳经济的"压舱石"。数据显示，2025年，广东举办了1800多场各类促消费活动，"广东优品购"带动销售超600亿元；广东省 重点建设项目1500个，全年完成投资11816亿元。 强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托。坚持扩大内需这一战略基点，广东坚持将惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，从供给端和需求端协 同发力，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，使内需成为广东拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 ●南方日报记者 宾红霞 唐子湉 昌道励 广东着力全方位扩大内需，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动。 "粤"过山海，"沪"唤而来。前不久，广东特色农产品进上海营销活动、"媒体+"广货行天下——广东年菜进上海营销行动在上海举办。而此前，"广货行天下 粤味贺岁来"广东特色农产品进北京营销活动在北京举行。这个春节，"广货"行遍祖国大地，为马年增添一番岭南风味。 2026年，"广货行天下"打响了广东消费"开门红"的第一炮。从家喻户晓的"广东粮、珠江水、岭南衣、粤家电"到圈粉全球的无人机、新能源车、潮玩文 创，"广货行天下"将广东的产业优势转化为市场胜势，推动广东积极参与国内国际双循环，在国家 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/24 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2026/02/09 2180 2280 2282 2420 15 20 208 2750 2820 157 -83 2026/02/10 2180 2280 2282 2430 -6 30 235 2750 2820 148 -83 2026/02/11 2180 2280 2292 2430 -36 30 235 2750 2820 124 -83 2026/02/12 2180 2290 2292 2450 -30 40 262 2750 2820 123 -83 2026/02/13 2180 2290 2292 2450 -30 40 264 2750 2820 57 -83 变化 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -66 0 【行情分析】： 玉米：临近春节假期，市场成交逐步转淡，贸易行为预计在下周逐步结束。短期看，市场流通粮源逐步减少的情况下，下游节前补库将继续对 玉米价格形成支撑，预计节前现货难有大涨大跌行情出现，价格震荡运行。中长 ...

王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 （1）巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月 18 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数量 为 43 艘，此前一周为 53 艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 157.7 万吨，此前一周为 183 万吨。（2）StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。（3）印度全国糖业合作联盟 联合会(NFCSF)发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，印度食糖产量已达 1930.5 万吨，同 比增加 16.8%。（4）据 UNICA 数据显示，2025 年 1 月下半月巴西中南部压榨甘蔗 60.9 万吨，糖产量为 0.5 万吨，甘蔗制糖比 6.63%。（5）据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨， 同比增加 19 万吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我 国累计进口食糖 177 万吨，同比增加 31 万吨。12 月份我国进口糖浆、预混粉合计 6.97 万吨 20 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/24 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 2月12日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增86.42万吨一如预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，2月12日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增79.82万吨，较之前一周增加183%， 较前四周均值减少20%，市场此前预估为净增37.5万吨至净增120.0万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船为129.06万吨，较之前一周增加14%，较此前四周均值增加1%。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售81.12万吨。下一市场年度大豆新销售6.60万吨。 2月12日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增48.09万吨高于预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，2月12日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增48.09万吨，较之前一周增加35%， 较前四周均值增加20%，市场此前预估为净增22.0万吨至净增45.0万吨。 当周，美国豆粕出口装船为40.76万吨，较之前一周增加25%，较此前四周均值增加13%。 当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕新销售51.10万吨。下一市场年度豆粕新销售0万吨。 AgRural：巴西大豆收割进度为2020/21年度以来最慢 农业咨询机构Ag ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the WTO ruling against the U.S. regarding tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, highlighting the U.S. government's immediate response to impose additional tariffs globally, which escalates trade tensions and disrupts international trade norms [1][4][21]. Group 1: WTO Ruling and U.S. Response - The WTO ruled that the U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, justified under "national security," were unilateral sanctions, requiring the U.S. to refund $175 billion [3][4]. - Following the ruling, the U.S. administration quickly issued a memorandum imposing an additional 10% "defensive tariff" on all imports except for Canada and Mexico, indicating a disregard for international law [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The announcement of new tariffs led to significant turmoil in global financial markets, with stock markets in Tokyo plummeting and the euro experiencing a sharp decline [5][16]. - The article notes that the situation has escalated beyond typical trade disputes, suggesting a fundamental challenge to established trade rules [5][18]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Countermeasures - In response to the U.S. tariffs, the EU quickly prepared a retaliation list targeting key American products, while Japan and South Korea also considered countermeasures [9][12]. - The article emphasizes that the U.S. approach is not merely about protecting domestic industries but is creating tensions within global supply chains, forcing countries to take sides [9][12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The U.S. tariffs have led to a significant drop in American agricultural exports to China, with Brazilian soybeans gaining market share [14][21]. - The article highlights that the average tariff rate on Chinese goods entering the U.S. has become excessively high, affecting not only China but also other major exporting countries like Vietnam and the EU [18][21]. Group 5: Strategic Consequences - The U.S. tariffs are seen as a means to fund military expenditures in the Indo-Pacific region, raising concerns about the implications for regional security dynamics [11][12]. - The article concludes that the U.S. strategy of using tariffs as a tool for economic and military advantage may backfire, leading to increased global resistance and a shift towards a multipolar world [21][24].

这一裁决意味着特朗普自2025年1月上任以来，凭借《国际紧急经济权力法》赋予的特权，一次次绕开国会限制，对全球各国挥舞的"关税大棒"被法律正式 斩断。 根据第三方机构税收基金会的估算，2026年至2034年，借助该法律推出的大部分新增关税，原本可为联邦政府带来1.4万亿美元的预期财政收入，如 今全部化为泡影。 更棘手的是已经征收的巨额税款。 宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿预算模型经济学家估计，特朗普政府基于《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的关税金额已超过1750亿美 元。 这些钱已经被政府花掉，但现在失去了法律依据，理论上需要向进口商退还。 特朗普本人在当天的记者会上承认，关于退款的官司"可能要打五年"。 被裁定违法的关税清单覆盖范围极广。 其中包括以边境安全与打击芬太尼为由加征的关税，针对美国三大贸易伙伴实施的差异化税率：中国所有进口商品 加征10%，墨西哥非《美墨加协定》进口商品加征25%，加拿大非《美墨加协定》进口商品加征35%。 还有覆盖几乎所有贸易伙伴、税率从10%到50%不等 的所谓"对等关税"，以及对印度实施的俄罗斯石油关税。 裁决公布仅数小时后，特朗普就在白宫记者会上展开了紧急反击。 他宣布将签署一项行政令，依 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in global commodity markets driven by geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and economic data, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S. military actions in the Middle East and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military presence in the Middle East, particularly the deployment of the USS Ford, is exerting pressure on Iran amid negotiations, with predictions of increased likelihood of military action by the end of March 2026 [5][18]. - The oil market has partially priced in the potential for conflict, which could lead to sharp price increases if tensions escalate, followed by a potential price drop once the situation stabilizes [6][19]. Policy Factors - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval, affecting the legality of previously imposed tariffs [22]. - The Trump administration's response includes raising tariffs under a different legal framework, but the overall impact of these changes on the market may be limited due to existing exemptions and the temporary nature of the new tariffs [22]. Economic Data - The U.S. economy is showing signs of "stagflation," with Q4 2025 GDP growth at approximately 1.4% and core PCE inflation at 3% year-over-year, indicating economic weakness [11][23]. - The Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction remains uncertain, influenced by the balance of dovish and hawkish members in upcoming appointments, which could lead to shifts in market expectations [12][24]. Commodity Market Performance - During the holiday period, commodities such as gold, silver, and oil saw significant price increases, with WTI crude oil rising from $62.83 to $66.31, a 5.54% increase, and Brent crude oil increasing by 5.46% [17]. - The report notes that various commodities are experiencing upward price movements, reflecting the complex interplay of geopolitical and economic factors [4][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This year's Spring Festival holiday had unique advantages, including the longest duration in history and a consumption - stimulating activity. It showed excellent performance in multiple dimensions, especially in travel and consumption. The real - estate market showed signs of hitting the bottom, while the film market was dismal. Overseas capital markets had various trends due to factors like Fed's FOMC meeting minutes, geopolitical conflicts, and AI industry development [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Travel - The Spring Festival travel rush saw a continuous increase in long - distance travel. The total cross - regional passenger flow from February 2nd to 21st this year increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2025 and 26.3% compared to 2019, reaching a record high. The number of passengers in various transportation modes increased by about 5% - 6%. The self - driving travel enthusiasm was significantly boosted, with the national population migration scale index from the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 22.2% this year compared to 2025 [3][9][12]. - The difference in growth rates between the data from the Ministry of Transport and Baidu Migration was likely due to statistical methods. The non - operational passenger volume on roads accounted for 81.3% of the total cross - regional passenger flow, indicating that self - driving was the main mode of travel during the Spring Festival [16][17]. Consumption - Retail, catering, and service consumption were active. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, higher than the growth rates during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2025. The consumption of domestic tourism on key platforms increased by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday. The rental car order volume on key platforms increased by 26%, and the north - south cross - region orders increased by 196% [4][19][22]. - The "trade - in" policy continued to release consumer demand. By February 19th, the trade - in of consumer goods benefited 28.88 million people, driving sales of 198.02 billion yuan. Smart devices maintained high growth, and Hainan's duty - free sales increased rapidly [22]. Film Market The film market continued its dismal performance since 2025, hitting a new low in the Spring Festival season in the past 7 years. As of the afternoon of the sixth day of the first lunar month, the cumulative box office of this year's Spring Festival season was 4.91 billion yuan, and it was unlikely to exceed 6 billion yuan. The number of screenings reached a new high, but the number of movie - goers hit a new low, mainly due to the lack of high - quality works [25]. Real - Estate Market The real - estate market showed a weak rebound at the bottom, with first - tier cities having a stronger rebound than second - and third - tier cities. From the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month, the average daily sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.04 million square meters, a 24.9% increase compared to the same period last year. The transaction and listing prices of second - hand houses in January also showed signs of stabilization. If the trend in the past 1 - 2 months continues, the real - estate sales may have hit the bottom [5][29]. Overseas Capital Markets - Most overseas bond yields declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield adjusted upwards due to the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and tariff policy fluctuations. European bond markets generally strengthened under the expectation of easing. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield declined by 10.9bp, while the 10 - year Indian government bond yield increased by 4.8bp [6][32]. - The US dollar index strengthened, and the copper - gold ratio fluctuated weakly. Most overseas commodities rose, with oil and coal prices rising by more than 5%. Precious metals and some agricultural products also had varying degrees of increase [35][37]. - European and American stock markets rose collectively, while Asian stock markets were divided. The US stock market rebounded strongly, and European stock markets followed suit. The South Korean stock market hit a record high, while the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets were weak. The FTSE A50 index rose 0.3% during the holiday [40].