Report Summary 1. Core View - Brazil's soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season is 68% as of March 19, 2026, 8 percentage points higher than the previous week but still behind last year's 80%. The harvest speeded up due to rainfall interruption in the Matopiba region and significant progress in previously lagging states [1] - The expected spring soybean planting area in the US this year is 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast of 85 million acres. The expected corn planting area is 94.4 million acres, higher than the February forecast of 94 million acres. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report [1] - As of March 19, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume for the week was 1,101,730 tons, compared with 833,816 tons in the same period last year. The total US soybean export inspection volume so far in the 2025/26 season is 29,182,214 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%, reaching 68.1% of the annual export target [1] - Brazil's shipping recovery eases concerns about near - month arrivals. If soybean arrivals are normal and state reserve sales are implemented, the near - month crushing profit will narrow slightly, but the decline is limited due to high import costs [2] - In March, palm oil trade flow changed significantly due to energy market fluctuations and new policy pressures. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased supply - chain risks, disrupted regional trade, and led to longer shipping routes, higher freight uncertainties, and increased insurance costs. Refiners in the region are consuming inventory instead of purchasing new goods [2] - Indonesia's increase in export tax and the improvement of biodiesel economic benefits make exporters re - evaluate export volumes. The rise in diesel prices encourages more palm oil for domestic energy use. Market speculation about the B50 policy resurfaced, which may increase Indonesia's domestic crude palm oil demand by about 2 million tons and tighten export supply [2] - As of March 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in China is 2312900 tons, a decrease of 57000 tons (2.41%) from last week and a decrease of 62900 tons (2.65%) year - on - year [3] - Trump's social media message led to a decline in the crude oil and oil sectors. The short - term price movement of the oil sector is hard to predict due to the unresolved Iran issue. Whether crude oil prices can remain high is the most important factor for the oil trend [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Bean Meal - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of March 19, 2026, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress is 68%, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but behind last year's 80% [1] - **US Planting Forecast**: The expected US soybean planting area this spring is 86.1 million acres, and the expected corn planting area is 94.4 million acres, both higher than February forecasts [1] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of March 19, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume is 1,101,730 tons. The total export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season so far is 29,182,214 tons, down 27.0% year - on - year, reaching 68.1% of the annual target [1] - **Near - Month Situation**: Brazil's shipping recovery eases near - month arrival concerns. If arrivals are normal and state reserve sales occur, near - month crushing profit will narrow slightly with limited decline due to high import costs [2] Oils - **Palm Oil Trade**: In March, palm oil trade flow changed due to energy market and policy factors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased supply - chain risks. Indonesia's export tax increase and biodiesel economic benefits change export decisions. The B50 policy speculation may tighten palm oil export supply [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in China is 2312900 tons, down 2.41% from last week and 2.65% year - on - year [3] - **Price Trend**: Trump's social media message led to a decline in the oil sector. The short - term price movement is hard to predict, and crude oil price level is the key factor for the oil trend [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for agricultural products, driven by rising costs in planting, increased demand, and global supply challenges due to regional conflicts and climate impacts [6] - Agricultural investment opportunities are emphasized, with a focus on the revaluation of agricultural resources and the potential for price increases [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Agricultural Product Trends - The report discusses the upward trend in agricultural product prices, influenced by rising planting costs and increased demand due to substitution effects [6] - It notes that regional turmoil poses global supply challenges, further tightening supply and driving prices higher [6] Section 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies agricultural products as having significant resource attributes, leading to a potential revaluation and uplift in valuations [6] - It suggests that the agricultural sector is poised for a breakout, with favorable conditions for investment [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the Iran - Israel conflict escalating and then cooling down. The Iran situation mainly affects crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices have a driving effect on oil - chemical and oil - seed sectors, also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - Global interest rate hike expectations are rising. The Fed, BoE, BoJ, and ECB have different stances on interest rates, and the rise in oil prices and interest rate hike expectations form a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. - China's domestic policies are pro - active, with economic growth targeted at 4.5% - 5%, and various fiscal measures are in place. The economic structure shows differentiation, with different performance in manufacturing, trade, consumption, and real estate [3]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There are anti - correlations between the non - energy and energy sectors, and different commodity sectors have different focuses [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran - Israel conflict has led to damage to Qatar's LNG facilities. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and the situation has some uncertainties. The Iran situation mainly impacts crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices drive oil - chemical and oil - seed sectors, also causing inflation and recession concerns. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices and related sectors may rise further. Disruptions in Middle East natural gas supply may have a far - reaching impact on Asia - Pacific countries [1]. Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and Powell will not leave the council before the investigation ends and won't cut interest rates until inflation improves. The BoE maintains the interest rate, removes the "rate cut" wording, and is ready to act on inflation. The BoJ keeps the policy unchanged, and the ECB maintains the interest rate at 2% but has a tougher stance. The rise in oil prices and interest rate hike expectations form a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. Domestic Policy and Economic Situation - China's 2026 government work report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan. Special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued, and 2500 billion yuan will be used for consumer goods replacement. In February, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. Exports and imports increased significantly. Consumption and industrial added value showed growth, while real estate investment and sales declined [3]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There is an anti - correlation between the non - energy and energy sectors. The IEA releases a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, and the US plans to release 1.72 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products. The EU simplifies gas import rules, Russia may cut off gas supply to Europe, and South Korea starts a resource security crisis warning. Black commodities focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [5]. Key News - Trump claims to be negotiating with Iran, but all related information is released by the US. Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz and will take retaliatory measures if its power system is attacked. The US allows the sale of Iranian oil in transit. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has reversed the previous pro - cyclical and re - inflation environment, and the commodity market may seek a direction between stagflation and recession in the future. The impact on oil prices, the macro - economy, and asset pricing logic will significantly exceed that of the same period in history [7][12]. - In the shipping industry, the geopolitical conflict has increased costs, and the recovery of shipping will take time. The price of shipping depends on the duration of the blockade [12][22]. - In the polyester bottle - chip industry, the supply is tightening, and the industry has emerged from the loss dilemma. In the short term, it can be operated with a long - bias, but there is a risk of decline if the geopolitical situation eases [22][30]. - In the asphalt industry, the supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the support for the price is strong. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the second quarter [31][35]. - In the soda ash industry, the market may first trade the speculative purchases of the downstream and mid - stream due to imported inflation, but there are opportunities for short - selling at high levels later [37][40]. - In the precious metals market, gold and silver are facing short - term headwinds due to tightened liquidity and concerns about interest - rate hikes [41][46]. - In the agricultural products market, the rise in oil prices affects agricultural products through cost and substitution paths. If oil prices remain high for a long time, the impact on agricultural product prices will become more obvious [50][57]. Summary by Directory Macro: From Risk Shock to Supply - Demand Reshaping - The Impact of Middle East Geopolitical Risks on Commodity Trends - Before the conflict, the market had a pro - cyclical expectation. After the US - Israel attack on Iran on February 28, the situation reversed. The conflict cut off the industrial chain cycle, causing a sharp rise in oil prices and a greater impact on the economy [7]. - Historically, in seven US - involved conflicts related to geopolitics or resource - rich countries, the price of crude oil rose in three cases and fell in four cases. Gold showed different trends in different conflicts, mainly related to the market's understanding of monetary policy during the war. The US dollar's trend is complex, and in this Iran conflict, it may not be very weak in the short and medium term. Copper will trade the recession expectation at a certain stage and then rebound [9][11]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the pro - cyclical and re - inflation environment has changed. The commodity market may face stagflation or recession. The supply constraint - driven price increase may not be sustainable, and the risk of commodity price decline is accumulating [12]. Shipping: Geopolitical Conflict Raises Costs, Shipping Companies Impose Fuel Surcharges - The passage of the Hormuz Strait remains basically stagnant, with 1110 ships stranded, including 773 of the three major ship types. The passage situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and it will take time for shipping to recover even if the war eases [14][16]. - The Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal have not been significantly affected for the time being, but if the Houthi rebels restart attacks in the Red Sea, these routes will be greatly affected [17]. - Fuel costs and insurance premiums have risen significantly. The price of marine low - sulfur fuel oil has more than doubled, and most shipping companies have suspended bookings for Middle - East routes [18]. - There are alternative solutions for Middle - East routes, but they have high costs and low efficiency. The follow - up actions of the Houthi rebels will affect shipping companies' capacity deployment [19]. - The spot freight rate of European routes is oscillating in the off - season, and the freight rate of Middle - East routes is in high - level game. The short - term focus is on the cargo - receiving situation of shipping companies in April, and the medium - and long - term freight rate depends on the blockade time [20][22]. Polyester Bottle Chips: Tightening Supply and Peak Season, Bottle Chips Out of the Loss Dilemma - The driving logic of the market has shifted from the cost side to the supply side. The reduction of PX load will affect the supply of downstream PTA [22]. - In the price - difference structure, naphtha is the strongest, and the price difference between PX and naphtha is weak. The profit - compression space of PX and PTA is large [23]. - Due to refinery load reduction and the maintenance season, the supply of PX is expected to decrease, and the supply of PTA is also under pressure. The load of ethylene glycol is affected by raw materials, and the import is expected to decrease [24][26]. - The load of polyester is seasonally rising, and the inventory of polyester products is differentiated. Bottle chips perform better than short - fibers, and the price difference strategy between them can be concerned [29]. - In the short term, the market can be operated with a long - bias, but there is a risk of decline if the geopolitical situation eases. It is not recommended to chase positive spreads in the month - spread, and the month - spread can be narrowed at high prices [30]. Asphalt: Tight Supply, Weak Demand, and Continued Concerns about Raw Materials - The current market is driven by supply tightening and domestic refinery production cuts. In mid - March, as the Middle - East situation intensified and the cost increased, some refineries reduced or stopped production, driving the price up [31]. - The supply of asphalt in the southern region has decreased significantly, and the demand recovery is still weak. The demand for road - modified asphalt is at the lowest level in the same period, and the demand for waterproofing membranes has only recovered to the medium - low level [32]. - The core driving factors include the increase in raw material prices due to the Middle - East conflict, the problem of raw material inventory from the Venezuela event, and the supply concern of other heavy - quality raw materials [33][34]. - In the future, at least in the second quarter, the asphalt price is expected to maintain a high - level shock due to the peak demand season and raw - material inventory consumption [35]. Soda Ash: Continued Geopolitical Disturbance, Differentiated Trends of Weak - Fundamentals Varieties - In the first three weeks of the conflict, the market sentiment was intense in the first week, with energy products leading the rise. In the second week, the sentiment was differentiated, and the rise and fall narrowed. In the third week, glass and soda ash entered the top ten decliners [36]. - In the fourth week, the mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran strengthened the market's pricing of the energy crisis. Coal prices rose, driving soda ash prices up [37]. - The cost of soda ash is affected by coal prices, but the impact is limited. The supply of soda ash is at a historical high, and the demand is strong in the short term but may face negative feedback later [38][39]. - In the short term, soda ash prices may be strong, but there are opportunities for short - selling at high levels. The strategy of going long on soda ash and short on glass can be considered, and selling call options can also be considered [40]. Gold and Silver: Geopolitical Factors Drag on Liquidity Tightening, Gold and Silver Face Short - Term Headwinds - Since March 2, the prices of gold and silver have weakened due to tightened liquidity and concerns about interest - rate hikes, and they have broken through key moving averages technically [41][42]. - Historically, the price of gold is highly sensitive to the US real yield. In the short term, the negative factors of gold are dominant, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the short term and wait for positive signals in the medium and long term [45][46]. - The price of silver generally follows that of gold. The relative valuation adjustment of silver has been completed, but attention should be paid to the impact of changes in ETF demand on the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the short term [47][49]. Agricultural Products: Geopolitical Conflict Raises Costs, Analysis of the Impact on Agricultural Products - Crude oil affects agricultural products through cost and substitution paths. The cost of fertilizers and transportation has increased significantly since the conflict [50][51]. - The correlation between US agricultural products and crude oil is higher than that in China. Different agricultural products have different correlations with crude oil, and the impact paths are also different [52]. - Different crops and countries have different sensitivities to fertilizer price increases. Corn is the most sensitive, and Brazil is highly sensitive to fertilizer price increases [56]. - The rise in oil prices affects agricultural products through multiple paths. If oil prices remain high for a long time, the impact on agricultural product prices will become more obvious [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural and sideline product options, including apples, cotton, dates, eggs, logs, pigs, and sugar. It presents market data, option factors, and offers corresponding option strategy suggestions for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple (AP) - **Market Data**: AP605 contract closed at 10,144 yuan yesterday, down 508 yuan or 4.76% from the previous day. Trading volume was 155,325 lots, an increase of 34,906 lots, and open interest was 80,399 lots, a decrease of 13,733 lots [3][6]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 39,289, a decrease of 11,908; put option volume was 42,442, an increase of 13,999. Call option open interest was 24,073, an increase of 1,625; put option open interest was 37,220, a decrease of 4,655. Volume PCR was 1.08, with a change of 0.52; open interest PCR was 1.55, with a change of -0.32 [4]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at -the - money was 10,200, the resistance level was 11,200, and the support level was 9,000. The weighted implied volatility was 56.97%, with a change of 14.32%, and the annual average implied volatility was 25.34% [5]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options to obtain option time - value income, such as S_AP2606P9400, S_AP2605P9600, S_AP2605C11000, and S_AP2605C11200 [7]. Cotton (CF) - **Market Data**: CF605 contract closed at 15,280 yuan yesterday, up 140 yuan or 0.92% from the previous day. Trading volume was 359,928 lots, a decrease of 8,413 lots, and open interest was 577,806 lots, a decrease of 14,645 lots [15][18]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 157,760, an increase of 4,398; put option volume was 22,882, a decrease of 14,294. Call option open interest was 322,366, an increase of 5,822; put option open interest was 257,518, an increase of 167. Volume PCR was 0.35, with a change of -0.1; open interest PCR was 0.8, with a change of -0.01 [16]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at -the - money was 15,200, the resistance level was 16,400, and the support level was 14,800. The weighted implied volatility was 19.19%, with a change of 1.88%, and the annual average implied volatility was 14.43% [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options to obtain option time - value income, such as S_CF2605P14400, S_CF2605P14600, and S_CF2605C15800 [19]. Dates (CJ) - **Market Data**: CJ605 contract closed at 8,860 yuan yesterday, unchanged from the previous day. Trading volume was 92,029 lots, an increase of 9,410 lots, and open interest was 105,674 lots, a decrease of 4,349 lots [27][30]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 33,237, an increase of 733; put option volume was 6,890, an increase of 828. Call option open interest was 76,734, a decrease of 2,851; put option open interest was 18,359, an increase of 167. Volume PCR was 0.21, with a change of 0.02; open interest PCR was 0.24, with a change of 0.01 [28]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at -the - money was 8,900, the resistance level was 9,800, and the support level was 9,000. The weighted implied volatility was 47.31%, with a change of 8.29%, and the annual average implied volatility was 43% [29]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options to obtain option time - value income and dynamically adjust positions, such as S_CJ2605P8700 and S_CJ2605C9400 [31]. Eggs (JD) - **Market Data**: jd2605 contract closed at 3,443 yuan yesterday, up 48 yuan or 1.41% from the previous day. Trading volume was 128,282 lots, a decrease of 45,406 lots, and open interest was 153,746 lots, a decrease of 11,387 lots [42]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 42,617, a decrease of 1,510; put option volume was 21,960, a decrease of 8,997. Call option open interest was 77,786, an increase of 7,023; put option open interest was 44,059, an increase of 1,574. Volume PCR was 0.52, with a change of -0.19; open interest PCR was 0.57, with a change of -0.03 [40]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at -the - money was 3,450, the resistance level was 4,000, and the support level was 3,200. The weighted implied volatility was 22.21%, with a change of 0.87%, and the annual average implied volatility was 24.96% [41]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options to obtain option time - value and directional income, and dynamically adjust positions to keep the position delta neutral, such as S_D2604P3100, S_D2604P3200, S_JD2604C3450, and S_JD2604C3500 [43]. Logs (LG) - **Market Data**: lg2605 contract closed at 822 yuan yesterday, up 3.5 yuan or 0.42% from the previous day. Trading volume was 11,282 lots, an increase of 1,498 lots, and open interest was 13,187 lots, an increase of 702 lots [54]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 6,791, an increase of 2,219; put option volume was 1,004, an increase of 237. Call option open interest was 10,952, a decrease of 89; put option open interest was 4,149, a decrease of 148. Volume PCR was 0.15, with a change of -0.02; open interest PCR was 0.38, with a change of -0.01 [52]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at -the - money was 825, the resistance level was 950, and the support level was 725. The weighted implied volatility was 28.59%, with a change of 1.23%, and the annual average implied volatility was 21.70% [53]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional and volatility strategies [55]. Pigs (LH) - **Market Data**: Ih2605 contract closed at 9,980 yuan yesterday, down 365 yuan or 3.52% from the previous day. Trading volume was 165,979 lots, an increase of 17,944 lots, and open interest was 207,256 lots, an increase of 3,587 lots [66]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 55,785, an increase of 9,990; put option volume was 15,331, an increase of 3,134. Call option open interest was 114,835, an increase of 10,054; put option open interest was 22,681, an increase of 516. Volume PCR was 0.27, with a change of 0.01; open interest PCR was 0.2, with a change of -0.01 [64]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at -the - money was 10,000, the resistance level was 15,600, and the support level was 10,000. The weighted implied volatility was 50.65%, with a change of 6.22%, and the annual average implied volatility was 23.78% [65]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bear - spread put option combination to obtain directional income, such as B_LH2605P10200, S_LH2605P9900. No volatility strategy [67]. Sugar (SR) - **Market Data**: SR605 contract closed at 5,453 yuan yesterday, up 24 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day. Trading volume was 402,573 lots, an increase of 54,949 lots, and open interest was 340,678 lots, a decrease of 13,362 lots [75][78]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 159,591, an increase of 8,673; put option volume was 58,378, an increase of 18,659. Call option open interest was 309,613, an increase of 7,947; put option open interest was 138,194, an increase of 1,822. Volume PCR was 0.35, with a change of 0.1; open interest PCR was 0.42, with a change of -0.01 [76]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at -the - money was 5,500, the resistance level was 6,200, and the support level was 5,300. The weighted implied volatility was 20.77%, with a change of 1.55%, and the annual average implied volatility was 12.09% [77]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options to obtain option time - value income, and dynamically adjust positions to keep the position delta neutral, such as S_SR2605P5200 and S_SR2605C5600 [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, with information being mixed and the direction of the geopolitical situation being uncertain. Short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on factors such as the smoothness of the global energy transportation route and supply - demand relationships [2][3]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and downstream demand, while others are more influenced by geopolitical factors and cost factors [4][5][8]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Prices had a sharp drop last night. The short - term price has high two - way fluctuation risks due to various news, and the long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the global energy transportation route [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Expected to follow crude oil, showing a pattern of strong support at the bottom, being easily affected by news, and having wide - range oscillations. The supply side is affected by the Middle East conflict, and there is a rigid demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in summer, while low - sulfur fuel oil has support from the component side [22]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery supply is tightening, and the downstream demand has a chance of improvement. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The BU direction will follow the oil price [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: There was a V - shaped reversal last night, with high short - term volatility, waiting for further clarity on the war situation [3]. - **Copper**: The price rebounded with Trump's release of news about US - Iran negotiations. Pay attention to the possible agreement on the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in price attracted downstream buying, and the inventory decreased. The expected price range of the 2605 main contract is 90000 - 96500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rebounded slightly. The inventory and the spot market improved as the price dropped. It has support at 23000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The low price stimulated downstream replenishment, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to stop falling between 2.2 - 2.25 ten thousand yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price led to increased downstream replenishment, and the inventory decreased. The domestic lead market has a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The rebound momentum is insufficient, and 1.62 ten thousand yuan/ton is the key support [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price weakened, and the market was active. Affected by the strong US dollar, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia [10]. - **Tin**: The price rebounded to the MA5 moving average. The supply of raw materials has improved, and the domestic refined tin production is expected to recover in March. The tin market may show a pattern of being strong at home and weak abroad. Pay attention to overseas inventory changes [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It oscillated and rose sharply at the end. The overall inventory reduction speed slowed down, and the inventory structure changed. Technically, it is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price dropped significantly. The fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and consider gradually taking profits when approaching the cost range [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price in East China increased slightly. The supply increment is limited, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern [14]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply increased, and the demand improved marginally. The price is expected to oscillate mainly [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose during the day. The inventory changed little, and the procurement intention of traders improved slightly. The price is likely to rise easily and fall difficultly due to energy concerns [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price hit the daily limit. The coal mine production increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to rise easily and fall difficultly due to energy concerns [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated at a high level. The impact of the typhoon on manganese ore shipping is small, the port inventory increased slightly, and the demand increased [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated upward. The demand increased, the supply increased slightly, and the price may be driven by manganese silicon [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic device operation rate decreased slightly. The agricultural demand weakened, and the industrial demand increased. Affected by the international price, the domestic market was active. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of policies [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume at coastal ports was low, the MTO operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The domestic device operation rate increased, and the downstream demand recovered. The market is expected to remain strong [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price followed the oil price to fall. The domestic production load decreased, the downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory decreased. Pay attention to the oil price and geopolitical risks [26]. - **Styrene**: The price was affected by the oil price to fall. The fundamentals are good, the supply - demand has no obvious change, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be strong [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Affected by the oil price, the prices of chemical products fell. The supply of propylene decreased, and there is support for the price. The supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is supported by cost and device maintenance, but the downstream purchasing is cautious [28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC price fell at night. The supply decreased, the downstream demand increased seasonally, and the export market is expected to be good. The caustic soda price fell at night, the inventory decreased, and the supply pressure was relieved. The price is expected to follow the sentiment [29]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA fell with the oil price. The industry load decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The price is affected by the energy and the Middle East situation [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load of ethylene glycol decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the export expectation increased. The price was affected by the oil price to fall at night. Pay attention to the situation development, export performance, and downstream load [31]. - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The short - fiber load decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The bottle - chip benefit improved, and the load increased. The prices are affected by the Middle East situation [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The price fell at night. The inventory reduction continued but slowed down. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [33]. Rubber - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply. The natural rubber supply is about to enter the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate decreased, and the tire operation rate increased. The inventory of natural rubber increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [34]. Agriculture - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the US - Iran war, the international oil price is high, and the global agricultural supply chain is at risk. Pay attention to the US - Iran situation, energy, fertilizers, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [36]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The oil price fell, and the price difference between vegetable oil and diesel is narrowing, which is beneficial to biodiesel. The new - season crops are at risk of fertilizer supply interruption and cost increase. Pay attention to the Middle East situation and macro - expectations [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price fell at night. The focus of the rapeseed market is on imports. The Canadian rapeseed import has recovered, and the Australian rapeseed policy has not changed. The price is expected to follow the sector [38]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of the main contract decreased. Affected by the oil price and new - season crop risks, pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [39]. - **Corn**: The port price increased slightly, and the domestic price was mixed. The US corn price affects the domestic price, and the wheat auction may impact the corn price. Pay attention to the Northeast grain sales progress, state - reserve auction information, and futures funds [40]. - **Pork**: The spot price continued to fall, the inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year. The futures price is expected to squeeze the premium [41]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price is slightly strong. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [42]. - **Cotton**: The price rose slightly. Affected by the energy price, the price difference between cotton and short - fiber narrowed. The demand in March was good, and the import increased. The domestic market is expected to be bullish [43]. - **Sugar**: The international market focuses on the new - season Brazilian production, which is expected to decline. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the weather in the third quarter [44]. - **Apple**: The futures price dropped significantly. The market focus is on the demand side. The demand in the Northwest is good, but the demand for Shandong apples is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Timber**: The price oscillated. The supply is expected to be low, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Pulp**: The price rose slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The overseas quotation is strong, and the domestic demand is general. It is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share index fell sharply, and the futures index also fell. The external market was mostly up. Pay attention to the key support levels of the A - share index, and consider an equilibrium strategy in the medium - term [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 30 - year contract rose, and the other contracts fell. The war duration is expected to be longer, and the dollar index oscillates around 100. The long - end is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rebound after over - decline [49].

Report Information - Report date: March 24, 2026 [2] - Report industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The external market of US soybean futures contracts is relatively strong, with the main contract approaching 1170 cents. The news of Trump's postponement of his visit to China has a significant impact on the market, but the trade negotiations between China and the US are relatively stable, and it is estimated that China will continue to purchase US soybeans at a normal level. The Middle East situation has escalated, and the logic of rising agricultural product planting costs driven by energy prices still holds, providing a basis for the CBOT to remain at a relatively high level. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the survey data from a third - party institution indicating a potential increase in the planting area of new - season US soybeans. Before the USDA's March - end area report and a turning point in the war, the external market may remain strong [6]. - In the domestic market, the change in the soybean export quarantine process in Brazil has slowed down the shipping progress in mid - March. Based on the shipping time window, the supply - demand situation will be relatively tight before the end of April, so the 05 contract theoretically has some support. However, considering that a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will flow into the market in May, it is expected that the basis will likely increase in the future [6]. Market Review Contract Quotes | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 3030 | 3020 | 3035 | 2972 | 3007 | - 23 | - 0.76% | 1259866 | 1783092 | - 66806 | | Soybean Meal 2607 | 2888 | 2899 | 2927 | 2880 | 2914 | 26 | 0.90% | 76591 | 531699 | 1684 | | Soybean Meal 2509 | 3031 | 3046 | 3070 | 3021 | 3050 | 19 | 0.63% | 482552 | 1074476 | 45750 | [6] Market Influencing Factors - External market: The news of Trump's postponement of his visit to China has cast a shadow on the previously optimistic expectations of US soybean export demand. However, the trade negotiations between China and the US at the Paris meeting are relatively stable, and it is estimated that China will continue to purchase US soybeans at a normal level. The Middle East situation has escalated, and the logic of rising agricultural product planting costs driven by energy prices still holds, providing a basis for the CBOT to remain at a relatively high level. A third - party institution's survey data shows a potential increase in the planting area of new - season US soybeans, mainly due to corn - to - soybean conversion [6]. - Domestic market: The change in the soybean export quarantine process in Brazil has slowed down the shipping progress in mid - March. The supply - demand situation will be relatively tight before the end of April, providing support for the 05 contract. However, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will flow into the market in May, and it is expected that the basis will likely increase [6]. Industry News USDA March Supply - Demand Report - Argentina: The 2025/2026 soybean production forecast is lowered from 48.5 million tons last month to 48 million tons, and the export volume of 8.25 million tons remains unchanged [9]. - Brazil: The soybean production is 180 million tons, and the export volume is 114 million tons, both remaining unchanged from last month [9]. - China: The import volume of 112 million tons remains unchanged from last month [9]. - Global: The global production is slightly lowered to 427.18 million tons (from 428.18 million tons in February), and the global inventory is slightly lowered to 125.31 million tons (from 125.51 million tons in February) [9]. - US: The sown area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 81.2 million acres, the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, the yield per unit is 53 bushels, the production is 4.262 billion bushels, the export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 350 million bushels, all remaining unchanged from February. The import volume and crushing volume are both increased by 50 million bushels [9][10]. China's Soybean Import Data In February 2026, the total import volume of soybeans was 5.976 million tons, the lowest this year. It increased by 146,000 tons (2.50%) compared with 5.83 million tons in the same period last year and decreased by 595,000 tons compared with 6.571 million tons in the previous month [10]. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the Soybean Meal 05 contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][17]

农产品早报 2026-03-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 （1）据海关数据显示，2026 年 1 月-2 月，我国分别进口食糖 28 万吨、24 万吨，较去年同期均增加 22 万吨，合计增加 44 万吨。（2）2 月全国累计产糖 926 万吨，同比减少 45.5 万吨，单月销糖 75 万吨， 同比减少 26.6 万吨，工业库存 581 万吨，同比增 84 万吨。（3）据印度糖业协会（ISMA）数据显示， 2025/26 榨季截至 3 月 15 日，印度累计产糖 2621 万吨，同比增加 249 万吨。（4）据泰国糖业协会（OCSB） 发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 3 月 15 日，泰国食糖产量已达 1027 万吨，同比增加 54.5 万吨。 （5）据国际糖业组织（ISO）2 月底预测，因印度和泰国产糖量低于预期，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Jujube: Low - level oscillation [3] - Rubber: Oscillation for natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and 20 - grade rubber [4] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The external market of ICE raw sugar fell slightly due to the sharp drop in oil prices caused by the US president's remarks. The domestic sugar supply - demand structure is loose, but the potential support from the policy bottom and the strength of raw sugar provide some support. The upward space needs more real - world news. [1] - Jujube: The supply - side topic is lacking, and it has entered the off - season of demand. The inventory reduction is slow, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation suppresses the price. It is expected to show an oscillating bottom - grinding market. [3] - Rubber: Natural rubber has seasonal shrinkage in Southeast Asia, but the inventory in Qingdao has increased again, and the fundamentals are weak. Synthetic rubber, especially BR, has a continuous increase in raw material costs, and it is expected to have a high - level wide - range oscillation. [4] 3. Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Performance**: SR605 closed at 5453 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.26% and 5429 yuan/ton at night; SR609 closed at 5482 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.24% and 5460 yuan/ton at night. [1] - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar was 15.52 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.7%. The spot price of Guangxi white sugar increased by 50 yuan/ton. The import volume of syrup and sugar pre - mixed powder from January to February increased by 31% year - on - year. India's sugar production increased by about 10.5% year - on - year. China's sugar import volume from January to February increased significantly year - on - year. [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is affected by oil prices and geopolitical events. The domestic supply - demand structure is loose, but there is marginal support. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold and observe long positions in Zhengzhou sugar. SR605 focuses on the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton, with a warning support of around 5350 yuan/ton and a warning pressure of around 5460 yuan/ton. [1] Jujube - **Market Performance**: CJ605 closed at 8860 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.23%; CJ609 closed at 9260 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.27%. [3] - **Important Information**: The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased by 1.37% week - on - week and increased by 5.60% year - on - year. The wholesale price of Hebei special - grade jujube decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles in Guangdong Ruyifang Market decreased by 4. [3] - **Market Logic**: The supply - side topic is lacking, and it has entered the off - season of demand, with slow inventory reduction and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies. [3] Rubber - **Market Performance**: RU closed at 16145 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.91%; NR closed at 13055 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.48%; BR closed at 17470 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 9.29%. [4] - **Important Information**: The price of Thai raw material glue and cup glue, the price of Yunnan glue, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The prices of synthetic rubber such as BR and SBR increased significantly. [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber has seasonal support but weak fundamentals due to inventory increase. Synthetic rubber has rising raw material costs and a high - level wide - range oscillation is expected. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe or try long positions for RU and NR near the support; hold long positions in BR or use options for hedging. [4]

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/03/24 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 3月19日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为1,101,730吨，符合预期 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年3月19日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1,101,730吨，市场预 期为60-115万吨，前一周修正后为981,213吨。 当周，对中国大陆的大豆出口检验量为664,967吨，占出口检验总量的60.36%。 截至2025年3月20日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为833,816吨。 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为29,182,214吨，上一年度同期为39,956,887吨。 民间出口商报告向墨西哥出口销售161,120吨大豆 民间出口商报告向墨西哥出口销售161,120吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 AgRural：天气转干有利于田间作业巴西2025/26年度大豆收割完成68% 农业咨询机构AgRural周一表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为68%，较之前一周增加7个百分点，但 落后于去年同期的80%。 马托皮巴地区-包括马拉尼昂州、托坎廷斯州、皮奥伊州和巴伊亚州天气转干有利于田 ...