地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡，收盘价 59883.02 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨，均价 6.07 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨；工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨，均价 5.91 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续，五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高，预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升，中期供应减弱，据 Mysteel，近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂， 检修时长 4 个月，预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨，供给预计下降，缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化，在关税豁免 90 天内，利好储能电池出口 预期，缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况，但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term geopolitical disturbances in the oil market are frequent, with significant uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran situations. In the short term, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, with Brent ranging from $60 to $70 per barrel. In the long term, if the price remains low in the second quarter and the hurricane season in the US in the third quarter is stronger than average, there is a driving force for the oil price to rebound [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively strong among oil products. With limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic, and the BU main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3400 - 3600 [5]. - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation due to increased supply and weak demand [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - month crack spread and monthly spread are at a high level, and the spot premium has started to rebound. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply continues to increase while the downstream demand is still weak [9]. - The natural gas price is expected to rebound due to increased demand intensity. In Europe, the gas price is supported by maintenance work, and the storage level is lower than last year [12][13]. - The PX market has an expected increase in supply, and the downstream PTA supply is also expected to rise, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the PX market is expected to be in a high - level shock [15]. - The PTA market has an expected increase in supply, a weakening export expectation, and a planned reduction in polyester production. The supply - demand relationship is weakening, and the processing fee may be compressed, with a high - level shock expected [18]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a tight - balance pattern in June, with a high - level shock in price [20]. - The short - fiber market has a limited supply loss, and the downstream has a pre - holiday restocking expectation, with a strong support for the processing fee, and a high - level shock is expected [21]. - The bottle - chip market has a gradually abundant supply and weak downstream receiving willingness, and the processing fee may be suppressed, with a shock consolidation expected [22]. - The styrene market has an expected increase in supply and a low - level increase in port inventory, with a weakening supply - demand relationship and a shock - weakening trend [24]. - The plastic and PP markets are weak in the short and medium term due to new production capacity and weak downstream demand [27]. - The PVC market is in a long - term supply - demand surplus pattern, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The caustic soda market is short - term stable, but the medium - term direction is bearish [30][31]. - The soda ash market has an expected increase in supply, weak demand in the medium term, and a bearish trend with a slow decline [33][34]. - The glass market is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [36][37]. - The urea market has a large domestic supply and weak demand, and the short - term futures and spot are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the factory's order - receiving situation [38][39]. - The methanol market has a large supply and stable downstream demand, with a port inventory increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [42][43]. - The corrugated paper and box - board paper markets have an increase in downstream replenishment enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, and there is over - capacity pressure on small and medium - sized paper enterprises [44]. - The offset paper market has a stable supply and weak demand, and the price increase is difficult to transmit [46]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - The pulp market has a complex influencing factor situation, and it is recommended to wait and see for the SP main contract [52]. - The natural rubber market has a decline in production and consumption in April, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to hold short positions for the RU main contract and try long positions for the NR main contract [54][55]. - The butadiene rubber market has an increase in inventory and a bearish factor for the BR main contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [58]. Grouped by Industry Oil - **Market Review** - NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, Brent2507 contract was at $64.74, down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. China INE crude futures main contract 2507 rose 1.7 to 456.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 455.9 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related Information** - As of the week ending May 20, the net long positions of traders in US light crude and Brent crude futures and options decreased by 631 lots, equivalent to a reduction of 631,000 barrels of crude oil [1]. - Eight OPEC+ countries that promised additional voluntary oil production cuts will hold a meeting on May 31 to decide on July's production [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term shock, medium - term weak [3]. - Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking weakens, diesel cracking weakens [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review** - BU2507 closed at 3507 points at night (- 0.23%), BU2509 closed at 3461 points at night (- 0.20%) [4]. - On May 26, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was 3450 - 3800 yuan/ton, in East China was 3520 - 3590 yuan/ton, and in South China was 3380 - 3500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Related Information** - At the end of the month, with the reduction of some expired contracts, the quotation of individual brands increased slightly. The demand in the north was stable, and the supply increased slightly. The demand in the south was affected by rainfall [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [5]. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review** - PG2507 closed at 4075 (+ 0.27%) at night, PG2508 closed at 4004 (+ 0.18%) at night [6]. - The spot price of domestic liquefied gas in South China was 4770 - 4880 yuan/ton, and the imported gas was 4820 - 5000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Related Information** - The South China market was stable, and the Shandong market had a small increase. The East China market was mainly stable [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Not clearly mentioned in the report. Fuel Oil - **Market Review** - FU07 contract closed at 2976 (- 0.73%) at night, LU07 closed at 3501 (- 0.26%) at night [9]. - In the Singapore paper - trading market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread decreased from 17.5 to 16.5 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread increased from 8.5 to 8.8 dollars/ton [9]. - **Related Information** - The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil market eased, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to rise. The fuel oil cracking spread in Asia decreased last week [9]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see [10]. - Arbitrage: LU7 - 8 reverse arbitrage should stop profit at a low level [12]. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. Natural Gas - **Market Review** - On Friday, the HH contract closed at 3.344 (+ 0%), the TTF closed at 37.253 (+ 2.2%), and the JKM closed at 12.585 (+ 0%) [12]. - **Related Information** - Last week, the US natural gas inventory increased by 120 bcf, higher than expected. The US natural gas production increased slightly to 106.1 bcf/d [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - HH unilateral: Buy on dips. TTF unilateral: Shock - strengthening [14]. - Arbitrage: Not clearly mentioned in the report. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. PX - **Market Review** - The PX2509 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 0.33%) during the day and 6604 (- 1.05%) at night [14]. - The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at $560/ton CFR. The PX price rose to $834/ton [14]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. An East - China PX plant's disproportionation unit restarted, and a 70 - million - ton PX unit in the Northeast was restarting [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [16]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [16]. - Options: Double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review** - The TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+ 0.17%) during the day and 4690 (- 0.72%) at night [16]. - The spot price of PTA in May was at a premium of 165 - 170 over the September contract [16]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. A 100 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China restarted [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [18]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [18]. - Options: Double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review** - The EG2509 main contract closed at 4393 (- 0.23%) during the day and 4357 (- 0.82%) at night [18]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol was at a premium of 136 - 142 yuan/ton over the September contract [19]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The inventory of ethylene glycol in East - China main ports decreased by 5.6 million tons [19]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [20]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Sell call options [20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review** - The PF2507 main contract closed at 6430 (- 0.31%) during the day and 6394 (- 0.56%) at night [20]. - The price of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber in Fujian was stable, and the downstream purchased on demand [20]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The average production and sales of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber were 45% [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [21]. - Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review** - The PR2507 main contract closed at 6006 (+ 0.30%) during the day and 5976 (- 0.50%) at night [22]. - The trading volume of the polyester bottle - chip market was light [22]. - **Related Information** - The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, and a 20 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East - China stopped for maintenance [22]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock consolidation [23]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [23]. - Options: Sell call options [23]. Styrene - **Market Review** - The EB2507 main contract closed at 7195 (- 1.18%) during the day and 7110 (- 1.18%) at night [23]. - The price of styrene in Jiangsu in May was 7725 - 7800 yuan/ton [23]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the styrene inventory in East - China main ports increased by 2.25 million tons to 7.46 million tons. A 40 - million - ton styrene unit of Hanwha Total was shut down, and a 65 - million - ton unit was shut down due to a fault [24]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock - weakening [25]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [25]. - Options: Sell call options [25]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review** - The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, and that of PP in North China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton [25]. - **Related Information** - The PE maintenance ratio was 21.8%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 18.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Weak in the short and medium term, hold short positions [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review** - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong increased slightly [27]. - **Related Information** - Shandong alumina manufacturers increased the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda. The price of some caustic soda products of Jinling changed [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: PVC holds short positions, caustic soda is short - term stable and medium - term bearish [32]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [32]. - Options: Wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review** - The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1254 yuan/ton during the day and 1239 yuan at night [32]. - The spot price of soda ash in Shahe was 1250 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 7.45 million tons to 160.23 million tons [33]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Bearish, slow decline [35]. - Arbitrage: Short soda ash and long glass [35]. - Options: Wait and see [35]. Glass - **Market Review** - The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton during the day and 1016 yuan/ton at night [35]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton [35]. - **Related Information** - A production line in Shahe was restarted. The market in East China was weak, and the price in Central China was mostly stable [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Price shock - weakening [38]. - Arbitrage: Long glass and short soda ash [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38]. Urea - **Market Review** - The urea futures closed at 1816 (- 1.14%). The spot price of urea decreased [38]. - **Related Information** - On May 26, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.68 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons. The current inventory increased from 80 million tons to 91 million tons [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term weak [40]. - Arbitrage: 91 positive arbitrage should be deployed at a low level [40]. -

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, global pure benzene consumption exceeded 65 million tons per year, with China being the largest consumer and importer, consuming over 25 million tons and having almost no exports [1]. - The five major downstream products of pure benzene (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid) account for about 95% of domestic benzene demand [1]. - Over the past five years, the consumption of pure benzene by the five major downstream industries has increased, mainly driven by the expansion of downstream product capacities [3]. - Globally, Western Europe, China, and the United States are the main importers of pure benzene, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - South Korea is the world's largest exporter of pure benzene, with its exports to China and the United States increasing significantly in recent years [9]. - China's pure benzene imports have been rising year - by - year due to strong downstream demand, and South Korea is the largest source of imports [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Consumption 1.1 Domestic Pure Benzene Consumption by Downstream Industry Distribution - Styrene is the main downstream product of pure benzene, consuming over 12 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 40% of domestic pure benzene consumption [1]. - Caprolactam and phenol together consumed about 10 million tons of benzene in 2024, aniline about 3.5 million tons, and adipic acid less than 2 million tons [1]. - The consumption growth of the five major downstream industries in the past five years was driven by capacity expansion, such as the growth of styrene and phenol capacities and the expansion of caprolactam capacity due to increased demand in related industries [3]. 1.2 Pure Benzene Consumption by Regional Distribution - East China is the largest domestic pure benzene consumption market, with a demand share of nearly 60% in 2024 and showing high - speed growth [5]. - North China, Northeast China, and South China had similar consumption volumes of about 2.5 million tons in 2024, and South China had a relatively fast consumption growth rate in the past five years due to the growth of local styrene capacity [5]. - The total benzene consumption in other domestic regions was about 3 million tons in 2024 [5]. 2. Pure Benzene Trade Pattern 2.1 Pure Benzene International Trade - Western Europe, China, and the United States are major importers, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - The most active trade areas are Asian countries' exports to China and the pure benzene arbitrage between South Korea and the United States [7]. - South Korea's pure benzene exports increased significantly in recent years, reaching 3.38 million tons in 2024, mainly to China and the United States, accounting for over 90% of its total exports [9]. - China's pure benzene imports reached a new high in 2024, with South Korea being the largest source, accounting for half of the total imports [11]. 2.2 Pure Benzene Domestic Trade Pattern and Flow - Northeast and Northwest China produce a large amount of by - product pure benzene but have relatively low downstream consumption, resulting in a net outflow of about 2 million tons in 2024 [13]. - East China has a large supply gap of about 6.5 million tons in 2024, with about 3.5 million tons met by imports [13]. - Shandong and Fujian need to transfer more pure benzene from other regions due to the large - scale commissioning of downstream refining and chemical facilities [13]. - In general, pure benzene flows from the Northwest to East and Southwest China, from the Northeast and North China to East China, and some imported goods in East and South China flow to the inland [13]. 2.3 Pure Benzene Domestic Logistics - Domestic pure benzene is mainly transported by road and water, with a small amount by pipeline and railway, and the transportation policy is relatively stable with mature routes [15]. - Road transportation is mainly used for cross - regional circulation in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui, with relatively large cost fluctuations [15]. - Sea transportation is mainly used in Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, with fixed routes and relatively stable costs [15].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The short - term macro atmosphere has improved, and due to device maintenance disturbances, the futures market has rapidly recovered upwards. The future market trend depends on two aspects: whether there will be a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there will be new export orders for textile and clothing (end - products of caprolactam) and white goods (end - products of styrene); also, whether the gasoline - blending demand in the US will improve and whether the shutdown and production cuts of its disproportionation devices will divert China's pure benzene import sources, leading to a reduction in the supply of the domestic pure benzene market [3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7100 - 7700 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.25% and a historical percentile of 93.8% over three years [2]. - For inventory management when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2506, sell, 25%, entry range: 7550 - 7650) to lock in profits and sell call options (EB2506C7800, sell, 50%, entry range: 80 - 140) to reduce costs [2]. - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2506, buy, 50%, entry range: 7450 - 7550) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (EB2506P7000, sell, 75%, entry range: 10 - 30) [2]. Core Contradictions - The future market trend needs to focus on whether there is a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there are new export orders for related end - products; also, the improvement of US gasoline - blending demand and the impact of its device shutdowns on China's pure benzene imports [3]. Bullish Factors - As of May 12, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.67 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons (-17.23%) from the previous period, with continued destocking and tightening of spot liquidity [4]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks progressed smoothly, with a larger - than - expected tariff reduction after the first round of consultations, leading to a rebound in pure benzene and styrene spot prices and increased trading volume [4]. - There were rumors that Hengli's cracking device had a sudden failure, causing its 720,000 - ton styrene device to be overhauled one month earlier, which would intensify the shortage of styrene if true [4]. Bearish Factors - A large amount of European pure benzene is expected to arrive in Northeast Asia from late May, and the import volume of pure benzene is expected to remain high from May to June [5]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, with many device overhauls planned in downstream caprolactam and aniline in May, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [5]. - The invisible inventory in the benzene industry chain continues to accumulate, and the finished - product inventory in the 3S segment remains high [5][7]. Price Changes - On May 13, 2025, the prices of pure benzene and styrene in various markets generally increased compared with the previous day. For example, the price of pure benzene in the East China market increased by 75 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene in the East China market increased by 305 yuan/ton [8][9]. - The basis of styrene in different periods also changed. For example, the basis of East China - EB05 decreased by 307 yuan, while the basis of East China - EB06 increased by 75 yuan [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PTA industry is short - term bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [2][15] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended for low - position long positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4390, the highest was 4590, the lowest was 4328, and the closing price was 4582, with a weekly increase of 148 or 3.34% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports a Small Rebound in PXN - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. Only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton capacity in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project launch in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The current PXCFR is reported at $777/ton, and PX - N is $223/ton; the PTA in East China is reported at 4720 yuan/ton, and the PTA cash - flow cost is 4354 yuan/ton. The load of the Chinese PX industry increased by 5.6% to 78.6%, and some plants increased their loads due to improved production efficiency. Overseas, South Korea's Daesan Hanwha Total slightly reduced its load in May, and Japan's Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton line of an 880,000 - ton plant unexpectedly shut down for about a month at the end of April [4][6] 2.2 Maintenance Promotes PTA De - stocking - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. In May, due to the still - poor PTA profitability, the maintenance efforts of suppliers were still large. It is estimated that the average monthly load of PTA in May is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by the planned maintenance of some plants, the PTA industry load decreased by 7.4% to 70.3%, reaching a low level in the same period over the years. The domestic PTA weekly output this cycle was 1.2925 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from last week. The current PTA social inventory is about 4.1226 million tons, a decrease of 183,700 tons month - on - month. Whether the terminal demand can achieve a trend - based repair remains to be verified by post - holiday orders, and there is medium - term pressure on the demand side [9][10] 2.3 Polyester Load May Decline - From January to March 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. After the holiday, the polyester load continued to rise to 94.2% (+0.8%). Next week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry is expected to be over 1.57 million tons, a slight increase from this period. As of May 9, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 60.1%, unchanged week - on - week. As of May 9, the grey fabric inventory of East China weaving enterprises was 34.0 days, unchanged week - on - week. Terminal orders are differentiated, the polyester load has increased beyond expectations and may remain high in May. The filament trading volume has declined, and the weighted inventory has started to accumulate. The supply contraction effect caused by the concentrated maintenance of plants continues, and there is a support basis for the short - term polyester industry chain prices, but whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [15]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Styrene Weekly Report - EB: Weak Supply-Demand Expectations, Focus on Raw Material Resonance Opportunities [1] - Core View: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term under Trump's policy, suppressing the valuation of chemical products. Pure benzene's supply-demand situation shows short-term marginal improvement but still faces pressure, dragging down the styrene price. Styrene's downstream demand is weak, and the supply-demand balance is under pressure. In the medium term, the terminal pressure will gradually emerge due to tariff effects, and high-cost styrene may face resistance. [5] - Strategy Suggestion: Maintain a short position on styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near-month contract at 7300. Sell the EB2506-C-8000 option. [6] Group 2: Pure Benzene 2025 Production Plan - Multiple companies in various provinces have plans to expand pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream production capacities in 2025, including Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil in Guangdong, etc. [8] March - May 2025 Device Dynamics - Many pure benzene production devices are scheduled for maintenance from March to May 2025, resulting in a net reduction in supply and demand during this period, with a slight inventory drawdown. [10][11] Supply, Inventory, and Price - From January to April this year, the cumulative pure benzene production was 718.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.11%. As of May 9, the capacity utilization rate was 73.25%, and the weekly production was 401,600 tons. The port inventory remained at 120,000 tons without significant change. [45] - South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level, and the inventory drawdown has been slow due to high production and imports. [28][34] Downstream Situation - The weighted average operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries has rebounded recently with the restart of styrene devices. However, the overall profit is weak, with adipic acid and caprolactam still experiencing significant losses, and styrene's profit has improved but remains below the break-even point. [46][57] Group 3: Styrene Futures and Spot Market - The spot price and basis of styrene show certain fluctuations, and the monthly spread and registered warehouse receipts also have corresponding changes. [63] Supply and Profit - The monthly and weekly production of styrene and the operating rate show upward trends in general. The non-integrated and integrated profits of styrene and the styrene-pure benzene spread also fluctuate. [68][71][72] Import and Export - With the shutdown of multiple styrene devices in Asia, China has gradually shifted from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene in the past five years, and exports have continued from April to May. [80] Inventory - The port inventory of styrene has continued to decline, with relatively limited year-on-year pressure, while the factory inventory is under pressure. [81] Downstream Situation - The high capacity growth rate of 3S (PS, EPS, ABS) has intensified competition, and the high production has supported the demand for styrene. However, the industry is facing profit compression, and the current downstream is characterized by low profit and high inventory, indicating limited terminal demand. [86][90] - The prices of 3S products have weakened, but the estimated profit has strengthened due to the significant fluctuations in styrene prices. [91] - The high production of 3S has led to a significant increase in inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission, and the support for styrene demand may weaken marginally. [96][99] Terminal Market - After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand depends on subsidy policies. The domestic and export sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines show certain trends. [100]

长江期货PTA产业周报 产业供需去库，短期偏强震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-12 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾： 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可，市场低位震荡 PX：上周PX价格低位反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产，周度产量减少， 社会库存缓降，PXN略有回升，总体而言较前一周基本略有好转，在春检时期，短期市场价格反弹。 PTA：上周PTA价格低位回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹；供应装置方面，恒力惠州与恒力大连按计划 检修，PTA开工下降，下游聚酯负荷小幅降低，综合供需PTA去库延续，总体供需好于前一周，价格反弹。 乙二醇：上周乙二醇价格低位反弹，期初受五一期间国际油价下行影响，节后价格低开；而后随着宏观面逐步 转好，逢低买盘兴趣提升推动市场从低位反弹走势，期现价格开始反弹，但由于港口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are short - term neutral to bullish, and mid - term performance depends on China - US tariff and crude oil changes. PX/PTA 6 - 9 calendar spread is recommended [6] Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, unexpected PX plant issues increased, and the macro - environment improved, leading to higher market prices. Polyester load remained unexpectedly strong, with the May average load potentially rising instead of falling [1] - The mid - term supply pressure of crude oil persists. Gasoline cracking shows limited upward potential, and the aromatics blending demand is weak, providing limited cost support [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level, but the PX balance sheet is expected to show a slight inventory build - up in May. PTA is in a state of significant inventory drawdown in May, and its price fluctuates with the cost side [3] - The polyester开工率 is 93.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Short - fiber production profit has declined, and the demand improvement in May is limited. Polyester bottle - chip supply has increased, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant [4] - Overall, the market sentiment has improved, but the rebound amplitude of PX and PTA is limited. Short - fiber market is in a consolidation phase, and bottle - chip prices follow raw material costs [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - TA主力合约现货基差 is 120 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton month - on - month), and PTA spot processing fee is 371 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month) [3] Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN is 206 dollars/ton (up 12.75 dollars/ton month - on - month). The short - process units are in a loss state, and most PX plants have stopped purchasing MX [2][3] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The aromatics blending demand is not promising, and the spreads between Asian MX, toluene and naphtha are weak [2] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Recently, unplanned maintenance and load reduction of PX plants in Japan and South Korea have increased. In May, domestic PX plants under maintenance will restart one after another, and PTA maintenance is still high [3] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is in a state of significant inventory drawdown in May, and the PX balance sheet is expected to show a slight inventory build - up [3] Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester开工率 is 93.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). The May average polyester load may rise instead of falling [4] PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 85 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the demand improvement in May is limited [4] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Polyester bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, the processing margin is limited, and the price follows raw material costs [5]

5月6日盘中，PTA期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至4328.00元。截止发稿，PTA主力合约报 4332.00元，跌幅2.17%。 PTA期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ | 机构 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 南华期货（603093） | PTA逢低入场 | | 兴业期货 | PTA涨幅可能有限，整体震荡偏弱 | | 申银万国期货 | 预计PTA期现价格维持弱势 | 南华期货：PTA逢低入场 兴业期货：PTA涨幅可能有限，整体震荡偏弱 供应端看，多套供应商按计划检修，部分延后检修装置兑现检修，5月计划检修量处于往年同期高位。 4-5月月均去库达到50万吨，社会库存累库情况改善。需求端看，后续支撑可能不足。织造企业在3-4月 产销旺季的开工情况处于往年低位，且逐步进入淡季状态，从订单情况也可以看到表现不佳。此外中美 关税预计对服装外贸影响较大，目前出口统计数据暂未体现，但后市终端消费对原料价格支撑不足。此 外从成本端看，原油价格可能延续下行状态，对PTA有利空指引。因此尽管供应端检修有利好，但在需 求端和成本端限制下，PTA涨幅可能有限，整体震荡偏弱。 申 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for MEG is neutral, with attention on Sino-US tariff negotiations and crude oil price fluctuations [9] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] - In terms of inventory, on Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy may lead to the exemption of subsequent ethane import tariffs. On the supply side, attention should be paid to the actual progress of ethane-based plants and the adjustment of imported supplies. On the demand side, the short-term polyester load remains high and stable, but direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold. The expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the holiday situation of weaving factories around May Day and the progress of subsequent Sino-US negotiations. Overall, the current EG inventory is at the seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still relatively high, providing a certain buffer. The actual change in port inventory is limited, and the fundamental contradictions of EG are not significant. Attention should be paid to macro dynamics [3] EG Basis Structure - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] EG Production Profit and Operating Rate - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] EG Import Profit & International Price Difference - No specific content is provided in the text regarding EG import profit and international price difference Downstream Polyester Situation - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] EG Inventory Trend - On Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6]