油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 16 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究 ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/16 | | 指标 | 6/16 | 7/7 | 7/11 | 7/14 | 7/15 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3667 | 3566 | 3606 | 3646 | 3617 | -29 | 51 | | | BU06 | 3650 | 3284 | 3358 | 3382 | 3370 | -12 | 86 | | | BU09 | 3667 | 3566 | 3606 | 3646 | 3617 | -29 | 51 | | | BU12 | 3499 | 3369 | 3430 | 3465 | 3439 | -26 | 70 | | ：11 | BU03 | 3423 | 3308 | 3382 | 3408 | 3393 | -15 | 82 | | | 成交量 | 442773 | 180896 | 230600 | 207308 | 240686 | 33378 | 59790 | | | 持合 ...

中国石化在香港创新形成"1+2+3"品牌公益行动矩阵。驻港企业连续13年开展沙滩清洁和郊野公园关注 2项环保品牌传播行动，以实际行动建设美丽香港、推进人与自然和谐共生。此外，公司组织开展了三 大关爱青少年成长公益品牌项目，"至美有你"青少年及儿童资助计划开展4年来，累计捐赠560万元，帮 扶400余名劏房家庭学童；与香港理工大学开设优秀学生奖励计划，培养具有国际竞争力的科技人才； 为香港航海学校的中学生捐建学生体能训练中心，帮助香港培养专业化人才。（戴安妮） 7月8日，由国际品牌科学院、粤港澳大湾区企业家联盟和国际品牌网主办的香港首届世界品牌大会在香 港举办，会上发布了"中国品牌国际化标杆100""世界地理标志品牌200"。中国石化（600028）入选"中 国品牌国际化标杆100"。 多年来，中国石化锚定"打造世界一流品牌形象"目标，持续践行"能源至净、生活至美"品牌承诺，把品 牌建设作为发展新质生产力、建设世界一流企业的重要引擎，围绕品牌引领作用发挥、品牌管理水平提 升、品牌关键要素增强、品牌国际化进程加速、品牌创建路径优化5个方面，扎实推进品牌引领行 动。"十四五"期间，中国石化品牌建设能力持续保持央企领 ...

6月20日，湖南省岳阳市。中石化湖南石油化工有限公司第三十六届大检修青年突击队正式完成了 为期两个月的检修使命。 结束那一天，拥有51名成员的突击队组织了一场简单而又暖心的总结仪式。仪式上，大家满是不舍 与感动。 大检修工作区域遍布公司炼油一部、炼油二部等6个工区、22套装置，共协助开关阀门430余个、现 场规格化6.5万平方米、清沟1900余米、清池1200平方米、转运废催化剂12吨、清理曝气管160余根、完 成38台空冷吹灰、对2800多个法兰开展定力矩检测复核……这是突击队60天攻坚克难的战绩。 以旗为荣：50余载突击队精神在今朝传承 湖南石化大检修青年突击队已有53年的历史传承。1972年，湖南石化"首届"大检修青年突击队正式 成立，最初分为"雷锋突击队"和"刘胡兰突击队"。1975年，根据检修、管理需要，两支突击队完成合 并，正式命名为"大检修青年队"，之后每4年组建一届，开展集中检修任务。1985年，大检修青年突击 队被共青团中央授予"新长征突击队"光荣称号。 作为本届大检修青年突击队队长，湖南石化群众工作部青年工作室副主任、团委副书记宋立波对于 这个团队并不陌生。8年前，他就曾参加第三十四届大检 ...

Group 1 - The 12th World Congress of Chemical Engineering and the 21st Asia-Pacific Chemical Alliance Conference opened in Beijing, marking the first joint event in China [1] - The chemical engineering sector is seen as a bridge discipline that connects fundamental sciences with industrial applications, driving societal progress and development [1] - The chemical industry is entering a new transformative phase due to the acceleration of a new round of technological revolution and industrial change [3] Group 2 - Liaohe Petrochemical's history dates back to the 1970s when it began producing domestic polyester fibers, marking a significant milestone in China's chemical industry [4] - Chen Ying, a senior expert at Liaohe Petrochemical, led the development of PETG copolyester, making China the third country to master its production technology after overcoming foreign monopolies [6][9] - The development of high-performance synthetic rubber at Dushanzi Petrochemical has allowed the company to break foreign monopolies in the domestic market, with significant production capacity established [25][27] Group 3 - Lanzhou Petrochemical has been a key player in China's refining and petrochemical industry since the 1950s, contributing to the development of synthetic rubber products [34] - The annual production of synthetic rubber in China reached 9.1 million tons by 2023, accounting for nearly half of the global market share, significantly altering the global rubber industry landscape [37] Group 4 - Jilin Petrochemical, established in the 1950s, has evolved from relying on imported technology to developing its own, with plans to reach an annual ABS production capacity of 1.8 million tons by 2025 [45] - Dushanzi Petrochemical achieved a world-first in the continuous production of different metallocene catalysts, showcasing China's capability in independent innovation [53]

Group 1: ExxonMobil Huizhou Ethylene Project - The ExxonMobil Huizhou Ethylene Project Phase I officially commenced production on July 15, with a total investment of $10 billion, marking it as the first major petrochemical project wholly owned by a U.S. company in China and the first foreign-funded petrochemical project in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1][2] - Ethylene, known as the "mother of the petrochemical industry," is a crucial raw material for organic chemicals, and the project aims to produce high-end chemical products to effectively meet domestic market demand [1] Group 2: XPeng Heavens' B Round Financing - XPeng Heavens announced the completion of a $250 million B round financing on July 15, which will be used to ensure the smooth progress of research and development, mass production, and commercialization of flying cars [3] - The world's first flying car mass production factory has been topped out and is currently undergoing equipment debugging, with plans to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year, and the "land aircraft carrier" is expected to be delivered in 2026 [3][4] Group 3: Guangdong's Innovative Drug Approvals - Guangdong has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for 25 Class I innovative drugs and 48 innovative medical devices, showcasing products like Ivosidenib injection and Orelabrutinib tablets [5] - The province ranks among the top in the country in terms of the number of pharmaceutical, medical device, and cosmetic manufacturing enterprises, as well as the quantity of registered products and innovative approvals [5][6] Group 4: Macao Tourism Price Index - The Macao tourism price index increased by 1.42% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, driven by higher prices for jewelry, watches, and entertainment, while clothing and dining services saw price declines [7] - The price index for miscellaneous items (jewelry, watches, and crafts) and entertainment and cultural activities rose by 13.40% and 12.00% respectively, while clothing and dining prices fell by 3.14% and 2.80% [7] Group 5: Shenzhen Stock Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,744.56 points, up 0.56% on July 15 [8] - Notable gainers included Dingjie Zhishi with a price of 46.02 yuan, up 20.00%, and Xinyi Sheng at 157.08 yuan, also up 20.00% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/PR, Ethylene glycol, Asphalt, Propylene [1][2][3] - **Bullish Rebound**: Glass, Caustic soda, Urea [2] - **Narrow - range Increase**: Soda ash [2] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Continued Rebound**: PVC [1] - **Weak Oscillation**: Propylene [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, leading to a decline in oil prices. LPG is weak due to the falling oil prices at the cost - end and sufficient propane supply. L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with cost support weakening and supply - side pressures. PVC has a short - term long and long - term short trend driven by policy expectations. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance but is affected by falling oil prices, presenting a bearish oscillation. PTA and ethylene glycol have an expectedly loose supply - demand situation and are recommended to short at high prices. Glass is expected to rise due to inventory reduction and policy support. Soda ash has a narrow - range increase under high - supply and high - inventory pressure. Caustic soda continues to rebound with supply pressure easing and demand from alumina. Methanol is bearish on rebounds due to device maintenance and MTO demand negative feedback. Urea is short - term strong due to international price increases and export speculation. Asphalt is bearish as the cost - end oil prices fall and supply is sufficient. Propylene is in a weak oscillation with cost support weakening [1][2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 3.86%, Brent down 1.63%, and SC up 1.55% [4][5]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. During the consumption peak season, there is some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released, pressuring the oil prices above. In terms of supply, Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons, and the number of active US oil rigs decreased to 424. In terms of demand, China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, and the IEA expects a global oil demand growth of 720,000 barrels per day in 2026. In terms of inventory, the US crude oil inventory increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion cycle, the crude oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [505 - 525] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,182 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,590 (+0), 4,496 (+0), and 4,640 (+20) yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. With OPEC+'s production increase, the supply - side pressure of LPG is rising, and the demand is weak. As of July 11, the PDH device profit was - 384 yuan/ton, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of upstream crude oil is expected to move down, and LPG is over - valued. It is recommended to short with a light position. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4100 - 4200] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market returns to fundamentals. Although the oil price is expected to rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply changes little. The cost support weakens, the device maintenance increases, and the supply pressure eases marginally. There are new device production plans in July - August, with a long - term weak expectation. The agricultural film start - up rate increases month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term oscillation, try to go long on dips. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract price and related indicators show certain changes, such as the main contract closing price, position, and inventory [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the new orders of downstream factories have not improved. The cost support weakens as the centers of propylene and crude oil move down. The number of Jineng Chemical's warehouse receipts continues to increase, suppressing the rebound space. The device restart plans increase, and there are new production capacity plans in the third quarter, putting pressure on the long - term supply [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, and take the opportunity to conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract price and related indicators change, with the main contract closing price rising and the warehouse receipts increasing [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The scale of domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance is expected to narrow, and the supply will increase. The downstream demand is stable, and the upstream cost is expected to be stable next week. The market continues to trade "anti - involution", with insufficient upward driving force in fundamentals, increasing warehouse receipts, and rising social inventory. Some devices are under maintenance or starting up, and it is in the off - season of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to the change of anti - dumping tax policies [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PX spot price in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,694 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices reduce their loads, and overseas devices operate at a high load. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+5.3) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 99.7 (-4.0) dollars/ton. The gasoline cracking spread weakens. The PX weekly output is 69.7 (-1.1) million tons, and the international PX start - up rate is 73.8% (+0.6pct). The import volume in May was 77.3 million tons. The demand is relatively sufficient, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6710 - 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,715 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,700 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is sufficient. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. The PTA spot processing fee is 125.9 (-4.9) yuan/ton, the disk processing fee is 315.4 (+15.6) yuan/ton, the weekly device maintenance capacity loss is 35.2 (-2.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 80.4% (+1.2pct), and the weekly output is 143.7 (+2.1) million tons. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing but overall neutral [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4700 - 4770] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,383 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,305 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device maintenance is less than that of restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing, with a loose supply expectation. The MEG weekly maintenance loss is 24.1 (-0.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 60.4% (+0.6pct), and the weekly output is 36.7 (+0.2) million tons. The arrival volume and import volume are low, but the expected arrival volume increases. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is stable, with the port inventory being low [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4310 - 4370] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price in the central China market increases, the futures price rises, the basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged [27][29]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro - level, the policy emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity and the technological improvement of coal - fired production lines, which is expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The in - production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the weekly output increases slightly, the enterprise inventory decreases, and the production profit varies. The fuel price rises, and the spot price increases [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on going long based on the 5 - day moving average. FG is recommended to focus on the range of [1080 - 1110] [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price rises, the main basis narrows, the warehouse receipts decrease, and the forecast remains unchanged [30][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side capacity - reduction policy boosts the industry, but the market sentiment is slightly negative as the policy speculation weakens and the inventory accumulates. The supply is at a high level with a slight decrease due to device maintenance. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32%, the inventory increases, and the downstream support is okay but the terminal consumption is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider shorting on rebounds. SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1220 - 1250] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price generally increases, the futures price center moves up, the basis strengthens, and the warehouse receipts decrease [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate is 80.4%, with a decline of 0.1% month - on - month, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the supply pressure may ease in the short - term. The demand from the main downstream alumina industry increases, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the liquid - caustic inventory decreases [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is expected to continue to rebound. SH is recommended to focus on the range of [2500 - 2550] [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,381 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,370 yuan/ton. The basis and month - spread change, and the trans - shipment profit increases [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device maintenance leads to a decline in the start - up load, while the overseas device load recovers. The supply pressure is still large. The methanol weighted profit is 102.1 (-1.2) yuan/ton, the weekly device loss is 34.36 (+7.71) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 84.75% (-3.42pct), and the weekly output is 190.99 (-7.71) million tons. The MTO demand has a negative feedback, the traditional downstream start - up rate is high, the social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is recommended to focus on the range of [2375 - 2415] [38]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The daily urea output is nearly 200,000 tons, the supply pressure is large, the industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand decreases month - on - month. The cost support exists, the basis is strong, the domestic fundamentals are loose, the international price rises, and there is speculation about urea exports [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long with a light position when the market opens low, and also pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. UR is recommended to focus on the range of [1755 - 1785] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price falls, the raw material supply is sufficient, the supply decreases slightly, the inventory accumulates, the fundamentals are neutral, and the demand is affected by the weather, with the previous "north - strong and south - weak" pattern reversed [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. BU is recommended to focus on the range of [3620 - 3680] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end propane price continues to fall, the cost support weakens, the device restart plans increase, the output is expected to increase, and the downstream and traders replenish stocks at low prices [2][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term decline space is limited, and short on rebounds. Propylene is recommended to focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] [2][3].

Core Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in Henan Province reached 298,000 tons, marking a 13.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which is 11.5 percentage points higher than the previous year's growth rate [1] - The LPG production in Henan accounted for 1.7% of the national output of 17,653,000 tons during the same period, indicating a significant contribution to the overall national production [1] Monthly Analysis - In April 2025, the LPG production in Henan Province was 90,000 tons, representing a 17.4% increase from April 2024, with the growth rate being 16.8 percentage points higher than the previous year [2] - The April production accounted for 2.2% of the national LPG output of 4,084,000 tons, showcasing an upward trend in the province's contribution to national production [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery inventory was abundant, maintaining a loose pattern. [4] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and it fluctuated around $4.5 for the 8 - 9 month spread. The LU internal - external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, the near - month contract was under pressure due to delivery, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high - sulfur supply - demand is still in the peak season, but the East - West and internal - external spreads have dropped rapidly. The external low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal - external spread is running at a high level. Pay attention to domestic production. [5] - The Singapore Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal - external spread rebounded slightly, the LU valuation is high, and the short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU can be considered. The risk lies in the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Tables Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, etc. showed different changes from July 8 to July 14, 2025. For example, the Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $10.28. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, 180cst M1, VLSFO M1, etc. also changed during the same period. For instance, the Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $10.33 from July 8 - 14. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From July 8 to July 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $1.83, while the FOB VLSFO price increased by $9.94. The 380 basis weakened, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $1.7, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $0.1. [3] Domestic FU Futures Prices - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 contracts changed from July 8 to July 14, 2025. For example, FU 01 increased by 28 points, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. [3] Domestic LU Futures Prices - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 contracts changed during the same period. LU 01 increased by 63 points, and the spreads between different contracts also had corresponding changes. [4]