Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals. With the opening of the import window, the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices, while downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - The alumina market is influenced by policy changes and supply - demand imbalances. The overall supply is tight, and the actual demand is weak [15][31]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by overseas sanctions and domestic inventory changes. The domestic price is relatively resistant to decline compared with the external market [23]. - The zinc market has a bearish fundamental situation with increasing domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, but the LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The production of recycled lead is reduced due to losses, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [42][43]. - The nickel market has a large supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for macro changes [48]. - The stainless steel market is affected by external demand and cost factors. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - The tin market is in a tight - balance state of supply and demand. The supply of ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - The polysilicon market has an oversupply situation in August, but the spot price is rising. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [72]. - The lithium carbonate market may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise after the stabilization of the commodity index [77]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, down 0.05%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 732 lots to 460,600 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: In July, China's scrap copper imports increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 183,200 tons, and refined copper exports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month to 118,398 tons. On August 20, Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing for the Nussir copper project in Norway, which is expected to be put into production in September 2027 [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the future interest - rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper ore has been alleviated, and the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term supply increase puts pressure on copper prices; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose by 80 yuan to 20,125 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 73 lots to 9,553 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [10]. - **Important Information**: The four - ministry notice affects the recycled aluminum industry. In July, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 85 yuan/ton compared with June, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan/ton. On August 21, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 66 tons [10][11][27][29]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the overall market supply is tight. The actual demand is weak [15][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the aluminum price; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [16][17][32][33]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose by 100 yuan to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,003 lots to 564,100 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [19]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal. The White House is considering a tri - party meeting. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed in July [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas sanctions on Russian aluminum and the Jackson Hole meeting affect the market. The domestic inventory decline may make the domestic price relatively resistant to decline [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the external market in the short - term; recommend short - term arbitrage strategies and waiting and seeing for options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose by 0.09% to 22,265 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1,549 lots to 216,200 lots. The spot trading in Shanghai was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with August 18. The safety inspection in northern lead - zinc mines has increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the terminal consumption is weak. The LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [38]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 fell by 0.45% to 16,740 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3,663 lots to 96,400 lots. The spot trading of refined lead was difficult [40]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the social inventory of lead ingots was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared with August 18 [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The consumption is weak, and the loss of recycled lead smelters is expanding, resulting in a reduction in production [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell by 360 yuan to 119,830 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,803 lots. The spot premium of different types of nickel increased [45][46]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 12,600 tons, and from January to June, the supply surplus was 180,000 tons [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel supply surplus is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2510 fell by 35 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,900 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [50]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel casting project in Zhejiang started construction. The sample inventory in Foshan decreased slightly, while the social inventory in 89 warehouses increased [51][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The external demand is affected by the global economy and tariffs, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and selling out - of - the - money put options [53][56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,960 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The spot price of tin ingots decreased [59]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined tin supply shortage was 3,500 tons, and from January to June, the supply shortage was 7,800 tons [60]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude affects the market. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. The market is in a tight - balance state [61][62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate; recommend waiting and seeing for options [63][64]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose by 3.66% to 8,635 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable [65][66]. - **Important Information**: A product of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to operate within a range; recommend participating in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts; recommend waiting and seeing for options [68]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly and closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The spot price of polysilicon increased [69][70]. - **Important Information**: The US government tightened the approval of renewable energy projects [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is an oversupply in August, but the spot price is rising, and it is recommended to buy on dips [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips; recommend conducting a positive arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options and buying call options [73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate 2511 fell by 140 yuan to 82,760 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 21,134 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. - **Important Information**: A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter. The tax department exposed tax - evasion cases in the "new three" fields. The new - energy vehicle market shows growth [75][76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options of 2511 [78][79][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the short - term, copper pricing returns to macro trading. With weak economic expectations, the upside of copper prices is under pressure, but the downside space is also difficult to open. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The key lies in the inflation and employment data in the US in August, which will determine the Fed's decision in the September interest - rate meeting [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market will remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week. It is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are still under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and focus on the 21,000 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand weakness pattern of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the price mainly fluctuating narrowly, and the main contract referring to 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, the driving force for zinc prices is weak, and they are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - In the short - term, the driving force for tin prices is limited, and they will fluctuate widely. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel price will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and ferronickel dynamics [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with strong support likely between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,770 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value [1]. - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,520 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value [3]. - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton [4]. - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous value [6]. - SMM 1 tin price is 267,500 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous value [9]. - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [10]. - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) stainless steel price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value [11]. - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data Copper - July electrolytic copper production is 1174.3 thousand tons, up 3.47% month - on - month [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports are 296.9 thousand tons, down 1.20% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - July alumina production is 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month [3]. - July electrolytic aluminum production is 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 625 thousand tons, up 1.63% month - on - month [4]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 266 thousand tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - July refined zinc production is 602.8 thousand tons, up 3.03% month - on - month [6]. - July refined zinc imports are 17.9 thousand tons, down 50.35% from the previous month [6]. Tin - July tin ore imports are 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - July SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production in a certain period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month [10]. - Refined nickel imports in a certain period are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% from the previous period [10]. Stainless Steel - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in a certain period is 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [11]. - Stainless steel imports in a certain period are 109.5 thousand tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate - July lithium carbonate production is 93,958 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month [12]. - July lithium carbonate demand is 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment for precious metals is cautious, but long - term factors support the gold price. Copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the support level has been raised. Aluminum prices may experience a callback, while alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. Nickel - related products show different trends, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock, and the industrial silicon market is affected by relevant policies [3][17][36][62][75][89][105][116]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The spot price of gold is at a discount of 4.18 yuan/gram to the futures price, indicating cautious short - term market sentiment. The net profit of Laopu Gold in the first half of the year increased by 285.8% year - on - year, showing demand resilience. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons [3]. - **Macro Factors**: The market focuses on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the speeches of Fed officials. Trump's appointment of an interim director pressures the independence of monetary policy, and the market expects an 86.1% probability of a rate cut in September, which supports the gold price in the long term [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the valuation of non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper futures main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The spot prices of various regions also showed a decline, and the inventory of SHFE copper and LME copper decreased to varying degrees [18][21][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expansion of the US tariff scope on aluminum has a certain impact on China's exports, and the price may experience a callback. Considering the peak season in September and the rate - cut expectation, the decline is likely to be a correction rather than a reversal [36]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with an oversupply situation expected in the second half of the year. The spot price is continuously falling, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the cost of imported ore from Guinea as a support level [36]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decrease in the future, providing strong support for the price of aluminum alloy. The demand is currently good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of SHFE aluminum, with a price difference of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, with strong processing fees. The demand is weak during the traditional off - season. LME inventories are falling, with a certain risk of short - squeeze, but the support is weak [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices, a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile [62]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventories. Nickel iron is relatively firm in the short term, and stainless steel shows a weak trend. Sulfuric acid nickel has certain price - support sentiment, and the MHP market is in short supply [75]. - **Macro Factors**: The strengthening of the US dollar index at the beginning of the week suppresses the market, but the expectation of a rate cut in September is still strong [75]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has supported the tin price, and in the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate [89]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE tin futures main contract is 267,840 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The inventories of SHFE tin and LME tin decreased [90][100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The market is over - hyped, and there is a sign of inventory reduction in the upstream and inventory replenishment in the downstream. The futures market is dominated by sentiment, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [105]. - **Price Data**: The price of lithium carbonate futures shows different changes, and the spot prices of various lithium products also have corresponding fluctuations [106][110]. Industrial Silicon - **Policy Impact**: The joint meeting of multiple departments to regulate the photovoltaic industry may have an impact on the industrial silicon market [116]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon in various regions decreased, and the futures price also declined. The prices of related products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells also showed different trends [117][125][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, but it may not prevent a restart of rate cuts. Trump has extended the China - US tariff truce for 90 days. - Fundamentally, it's approaching the traditional peak season. Spot premiums are strong, and domestic social inventories are decreasing. "Tight mine supply + resilient demand" supports copper prices. - In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. Weak economic expectations will cap copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is limited. It will likely fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500, depending on US economic data [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure with prices falling. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the market will be slightly oversupplied. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic production capacity is stable, but demand is weak. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, demand weakness, and macro - level disturbances, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market followed the decline of aluminum prices. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is affected by the off - season. The market will remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price ranging from 19,600 - 20,400 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and restart, but the growth rate of mine production is lower than expected. The supply of zinc concentrate is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and production has increased significantly. - Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the primary processing industries' operating rates are at seasonal lows. Low inventory provides price support. In the future, the current fundamentals are not sufficient to boost a continuous rise in zinc prices, and it will likely fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and due to the off - season in the electronics industry. - Affected by the US PPI data, the market expects a delay in interest - rate cuts, and the dollar is strengthening, suppressing tin prices. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price will likely remain high and fluctuate [11]. Nickel - The macro - level shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing expectations of more aggressive monetary easing. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of nickel iron has increased but still faces over - supply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is low. - Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory has increased. The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 in the short - term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - level expectation has strengthened. - The price of nickel iron is rising steadily, and steel mills' profits have improved, increasing production motivation. However, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The price will likely fluctuate strongly in the range of 12,800 - 13,500 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong. There are supply - side uncertainties, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. - Demand is expected to increase as it approaches the peak season, but the actual demand has not been significantly boosted due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain. - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, ranging from 86,000 - 92,000. A cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended, and light - position long - entry on dips can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,280 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The premium increased by 45 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 7.74% to 1,014 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 184.22 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%. Imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. - The copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic - copper rod production increased by 1.75 percentage points to 70.61% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 0.77% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed mixed trends. - The import profit increased to 57.1 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. - The operating rates of various aluminum - processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% to 60.70 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions, with a 0.49% decrease in the southwest region. - The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with the 2511 - 2512 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% and 4.31% respectively. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 20.21%, and exports increased by 6.61%. - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 3.02%, and the weekly social inventory increased by 2.03% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell by 0.67% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 234.81 yuan/ton to - 1,791 yuan/ton. - The monthly spread of some contracts decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. In June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97%, and exports were 0.19 million tons, up 33.24%. - The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at seasonal lows, and the global inventory level was low [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.30% to 266,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 280.00% to 63.00 US dollars/ton. - The import loss increased by 7.60% to - 17,389.53 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94%. - The operating rates of refined tin and solder production decreased. The SHEF inventory decreased by 0.17% to 7,792 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.12% to 121,650 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 4.25% to - 1,766 yuan/ton. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased slightly to 926 yuan/ni point [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04%. Imports increased by 116.90% in June. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 210,414 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.11% to 23,051 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coil in Wuxi rose by 0.38% to 13,150 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts decreased. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained stable [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% in July. Imports decreased by 12.48%, and exports decreased by 10.63%. - The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose by 2.30% to 84,600 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed. - The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate increased by 4.04% to 978 US dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. - In June, imports decreased by 16.31%, and exports increased by 49.84%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [17].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady demand but is facing challenges due to high prices suppressing procurement and weak terminal orders [1][14] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a mild recovery with increased operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [2][15] - Gold maintains its appeal as a safe-haven asset despite a slight decrease in price, influenced by geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt [3][16] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply tightening and policy changes, with prices showing an upward trend [4][36] - The antimony market is stabilizing with potential for price recovery due to improved export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel industry increases and supply remains tight [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices decreased by 0.08% to $9,760.00 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.73% to 79,100 yuan per ton [1][14] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.46% to $2,603.00 per ton on LME, with a slight increase in Shanghai aluminum [2][15] - Gold prices decreased by 0.36% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with increased holdings in SPDR Gold Trust [3][16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - Domestic copper inventory decreased to 125,600 tons, with a forecasted slight drop in operating rates due to weak demand [1][14] 2.2 Aluminum - Operating rates in the aluminum processing sector increased to 59.5%, indicating a mild recovery [2][15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset remains despite geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. debt levels [3][16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - Rare earth prices are on the rise due to supply constraints and policy changes, with significant benefits expected for leading companies in the sector [4][36] - Antimony prices are stabilizing with potential for recovery driven by export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise due to increased demand from the steel industry and low inventory levels [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆★ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (implied from context) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (implied from context) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and policy expectations. Each metal has its own short - term and medium - term trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper oscillating with a positive line, supported by medium - term moving averages. The spot copper price dropped to 79,180 yuan. The market is concerned about US retail sales and industrial output data. It is believed that there is significant resistance above the copper price, and short positions at high levels should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly today, with the East China spot at par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 0.1 million tons, while that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The start - up of downstream leading enterprises stabilized. The peak of off - season inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor but has certain resilience. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. As supply surplus becomes more apparent, the spot index in various regions is falling, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 77,500 tons, with the 0 - 3 month spread close to par. The low inventory in the outer market supports the price. Short - position funds are continuously reducing their positions, and LME zinc is expected to oscillate strongly. The import window remains closed, and the outer market is pulling up the inner market. The domestic Shanghai zinc has fully priced in the weak reality and weak expectations, and the term structure has flattened. There is a lack of resonance between macro sentiment and fundamentals, and short - term directional signals are insufficient. The supply of mines at home and abroad continues to increase, and there is still room to short mine profits on the futures. The idea of short - allocating on rebounds in the medium term remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Second entry) - LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the outer market is dominated by surplus, oscillating weakly. The import window remains closed. As the delivery approaches, the SMM social inventory of aluminum has increased to 71,700 tons. Recently, the futures - spot spread has narrowed, and the profit from delivering to the warehouse is insufficient. The subsequent domestic lead ingot inventory may become invisible, and the growth space of the visible social inventory in the future is expected to be limited. The aluminum price is oscillating at a low level, and there is reluctance to sell recycled aluminum. The SMM precision price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton. There is limited downward space for lead. Downstream purchasing on dips has improved, but the terminal consumption has not recovered. There is potential demand in the data center UPS power and energy storage sectors. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton. At the same time, there are still 10 days until the expiration of near - month options, and opportunities in the last - trading - day options can be considered [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals. The premium for Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium for imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium for electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the ferro - nickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Pay attention to signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in a rebound and should be regarded as oscillating [7] Tin - Shanghai tin recovered part of its decline and closed above the MA40 daily average line. A small amount of LME tin inventory flowed in this week, and its persistence should be tracked. In the domestic market, pay attention to the maintenance and production plans of large factories. It is believed that there is room to reduce the high social inventory in the domestic market. Today, the spot tin is reported at 266,000 yuan, and there is still a real - time premium of 700 yuan on the last trading day. Short - term long positions at low levels should be held based on the MA60 daily average line [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate strengthened at the end of the session, and the market trading was active. The delivery problem in September restricts the upward space. The spot price is reported at 83,000 yuan. Downstream inquiry activities are active, and the spot market transaction has improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as the price回调. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly 1000 US dollars. The futures price fluctuates greatly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, turning positive at the end of the session due to the sentiment transmission from polysilicon. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remained stable at 9050 yuan/ton (SMM), down 100 yuan/ton. Under the background of increased production by large factories in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, there is still pressure from high - level hedging on the futures. However, SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Coupled with the expectation of photovoltaic policies, the support below the futures is strong, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased significantly in position and rose. The expectation of a photovoltaic conference next week is rising, and the sentiment of policy benefits is fermenting again. At the same time, some terminals have begun to accept the component price of 0.68 yuan/W. However, it should be noted that under the expectation of a structural decline in terminal demand in September, the component price and price will still be under pressure. In the polysilicon segment, the production in August is expected to increase significantly to 130,000 tons, and the high - inventory pattern still restricts the upward space of its price. In operation, short - term news related to the photovoltaic conference has a significant impact on sentiment. The current futures is close to the previous high. Long positions can consider partial profit - taking, and at the same time, pay attention to position control and the performance at the resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [11]