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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

PPI Trends - PPI is expected to turn positive year-on-year in the second half of 2026 after a decline of 2.6% in 2025, marking three consecutive years of decrease[1] - Recent months have shown stabilization and recovery in PPI, with a 5-month streak of no month-on-month declines as of December 2025[10] - In December 2025, 39 industrial sectors reported PPI changes, with 13 sectors experiencing month-on-month increases, 9 remaining stable, and 17 declining[10] Industrial Insights - The largest month-on-month increases in PPI for Q4 2025 were seen in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries, with increases of 12% and 7.5% respectively[15] - Despite a weak domestic demand in 2025, external demand is projected to grow rapidly, with a trade surplus increase of approximately 20%, raising its GDP share to 6.1%, the highest since 2009[22] Macroeconomic Policies - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 will remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting domestic demand through active fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing[29] - The Ministry of Finance announced that fiscal deficits and total debt levels will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending will not decrease[41] Market Performance - As of January 23, 2026, global risk assets showed mixed performance, with European and American markets weakening while emerging markets remained strong[41] - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and Japanese yen, alongside depreciation against the euro and Canadian dollar, reflects currency market dynamics[41] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, a downturn in the real estate market, and escalating geopolitical tensions[3]

1. Report Type and Date - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Variety Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] 3. Investment Strategy Recommendations 3.1 Unilateral Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Unilateral | RB2605 | 3142 | Oscillating Strongly | Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, energy prices spill over to metal markets, five major steel products output rises for four consecutive weeks, demand falls, coke price increase acceptance rises, steel mills replenish iron ore, and Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds [6] | | Unilateral | HC2605 | 3305 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | J2605 | 1722 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | JM2605 | 1157 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, coke enterprises replenish coking coal, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | 3.2 Spread Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inter - period Spread | I2605 | 795 | Rebound | Decline in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals, increase in five major steel products output, slight rise in daily hot - metal output, improvement in steel mill profitability, pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and high port inventory [6] | 3.3 Cross - Variety Spread Strategies - RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM: Specific trading directions are not provided [6] 4. Logic Basis for Strategies 4.1 RB2605 and HC2605 - Message: Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, and energy prices spill over to metal markets [7] - Fundamentals: Five major steel products output rises, demand falls, and inventory increases. Iron ore price rebounds, and coke price increase acceptance rises. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments fall, arrivals rise, port inventory is high, and steel mills replenish iron ore. Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and supply - demand is balanced [7][8] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [8] 4.2 J2605 and JM2605 - Message: National electricity load hits winter record, and energy prices rise due to geopolitical tensions [9] - Fundamentals: Coke enterprises are in continuous losses, coke output falls, port and steel mill coke inventories rise, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and coking coal inventory in coke enterprises rises [10] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [10] 4.3 I2605 - Message: BHP accepts lower prices, and Rio Tinto and BHP plan joint development, causing price drops. But fundamentals are improving [13] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, arrivals are expected to decline. Five major steel products output and hot - metal output rise, steel mill profitability improves, port inventory is high, and steel mills are in pre - holiday inventory replenishment [11][12] - Forecast: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory [13] 5. Steel Market Analysis 5.1 Fundamentals - Price: Main rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices fall [14] - Production and Capacity: Blast furnace capacity utilization and key steel enterprises' crude steel output rise. Daily hot - metal output rises, and EAF capacity utilization falls. Rebar output rises, and hot - rolled coil output falls. Steel mill and social inventories change in different directions [14][17][22] - Downstream Demand: Real estate investment declines, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and household appliance production increase [22] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Rebar and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption fall, and rebar contract loss narrows [26] - Spot Profit: Long - process and short - process rebar spot profit shows different trends [31] 5.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [33][36] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate and narrow, with a range of 90 - 160 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate within - 50 to 20 yuan/ton [36][38] 6. Coke and Coking Coal Market Analysis 6.1 Fundamentals - Price: Coke prices are stable, and coking coal prices rise [40] - Production and Capacity: Coke output from independent coking plants falls, and that from steel enterprises rises. Coking plant capacity utilization falls, and steel enterprise capacity utilization rises [40] - Inventory and Profit: Coke port, steel mill, and coking plant inventories change in different directions. Coking enterprises are in continuous losses. Sample mine output,开工率, and inventory rise. Coking coal imports decline, and coking plant and steel mill inventories rise [43][48] - Monthly Output: National raw coal and coke output increase [50] 6.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [53][54] 7. Iron Ore Market Analysis 7.1 Fundamentals - Price: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port PB powder price fall. High - grade and low - grade ore price spreads change [55] - Inventory and Shipping: Port iron ore inventory rises, and daily shipping volume falls. Steel mill inventory and inventory days increase [59] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, and arrivals are expected to decline [61] - Domestic Production: Domestic iron ore output declines, and mine capacity utilization rises. Market transactions improve, but environmental risks exist [68] - Port Transactions and Cost: Port iron ore transactions increase, and steel mill iron water cost rises [70] - Hot - Metal Output and Steel Production: Hot - metal output rises, and steel mill profitability improves [72] - Steel Output and Inventory: Five major steel products output rises, consumption falls, and inventory increases [74][75] - Transportation Cost: Iron ore freight rates mostly rise [77] 7.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory. The basis is expected to oscillate within 40 - 100 yuan/ton [83][84]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up, and the steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron markets have all shown varying degrees of rebound, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen [1][2][3][5][6][7] - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are relatively loose, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][5] - For silicon manganese and silicon iron, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market continues to rebound. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel has slightly declined, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The demand and production of hot-rolled steel have both slightly declined, and inventory has continued to decrease. The profits of steel mills are poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized [1] - From the December data, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline, domestic demand remains weak overall, and steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - The global shipping volume of iron ore has seasonally declined but remains at a high level year-on-year. The inventory at domestic ports has increased significantly this week and continues to accumulate. The structural contradiction remains to be resolved [2] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season fluctuates at a low level, the resumption of production of steel mills has been disturbed, and molten iron production has remained basically flat this week, with little significant increase expected in the short term [2] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory is at a relatively low level, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment demand [2] Coke - The price of coke has continued to rebound during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been shelved, the coking profit is average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing意愿 of traders is average [3] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has slightly rebounded during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,046 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction transactions have maintained a relatively high level. Driven by the increase in the futures price, the transaction prices have varied. Terminal inventory has increased significantly [5] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly increased. The winter storage demand continues to be strong [5] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has slightly rebounded during the day. Driven by the rebound in the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of the manganese ore charged into the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production has seasonally decreased. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory of silicon manganese has slightly decreased [6] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron has slightly rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [7] - The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall, demand still has resilience [7] - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and inventory has slightly decreased [7]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3124 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 7 元/吨，涨幅为 0.22%，持仓减少 1.78 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 方坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 7.15 万吨。据我 | | | | 的钢铁数据，本周螺纹产量增加 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，社库增加 7.71 万吨至 303.12 万吨，厂库增加 | | | | 6.32 万吨至 148.98 万吨，螺纹表需回落 4.82 万吨至 185.52 万吨。螺纹产量明显回升，库存有所累积，表 | | | | 需回落，供需数据有所趋弱。目前螺纹整体处于供需双弱局面，库存压力不大，但驱动也不强。预计短期 | | | | 螺纹盘面价格仍以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | | | 昨日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force of the non - ferrous metals sector is slowing down, and its short - term upward trend may ease [1] - The general trend of inflation narrative remains unchanged, and the future path of price recovery depends on supply - side policies [2] - There is a certain divergence in domestic and overseas economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders are still positive [3] - In the short term, attention should be paid to the rotation possibility of low - valuation sectors in commodities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Macro factors: The "232" investigation has been finalized, and Trump announced not to impose new tariffs on key mineral imports. He is also planning a "price floor" mechanism. There are developments in the Greenland issue and the Fed chair candidate situation [1] - Event factors: CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts. The CMX - LME spread of copper has converged [1] Inflation Narrative - Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti - involution". The central bank cut interest rates on structural monetary policy tools and indicated there is room for further cuts. The Ministry of Finance issued 5 policy documents to support various loans. Special treasury bonds for equipment renewal were issued, and large - scale MLF operations were carried out [2] - Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have intensified, and only economic recession and interest - rate hike expectations can cool down inflation [2] Domestic and Overseas Economic Conditions - China's foreign trade is accelerating recovery. In December, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year. China's GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was achieved. The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2 [3] - The US 12 - month ISM manufacturing index decreased slightly, and non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with a high unemployment rate [3] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain, but short - term upward momentum may slow [4] - Energy: The US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. The US energy minister called for doubling global oil production, and the IEA predicts a serious supply surplus [4] - Chemicals: The "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties is worth attention [4] - Agricultural products: Weather expectations and short - term pig diseases need to be monitored [4] - Black metals: Domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair possibilities should be focused on [4] - Precious metals: Opportunities to buy gold at low prices should be noted [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - The market rebounded after hitting the bottom, with multiple sectors performing strongly [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued 93.6 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal, driving over 460 billion yuan in total investment [7] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations [7] - The central bank governor said there is room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [7] - There are developments in the US regarding the Fed chair candidate and the Greenland issue [7] - The European Parliament indefinitely froze the review of the EU - US trade agreement [7] - The US energy minister called for doubling global oil production [7] - US natural gas prices soared by 50% in two days, and WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for high-growth sectors, suggesting that they possess investment value in the medium to long term [3][9]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a pullback, influenced by policy guidance, leading to a rational market return. Short-term themes have adjusted, but the market is expected to benefit from a slow bull trend after consolidation [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting industries with upward momentum, particularly as selling pressure diminishes [3][9]. Summary by Sections Stock Market Factor Tracking - The market style remains biased towards small-cap stocks, with a continued preference for growth over value styles. Both small-cap and growth style volatilities have reached near one-year highs, indicating increased fluctuations in returns between styles [10][11]. - The report notes a rebound in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, while the speed of industry rotation continues to decline. The proportion of rising stocks in the 300 and 500 indices has significantly decreased [10][11]. - Market activity shows a decline in volatility for most indices, except for the 1000 index, while turnover rates are on the rise [10][11]. Commodity Market Factor Tracking - The energy and precious metals sectors have seen an increase in trend strength, while other sectors have experienced a decline. The basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, contrasting with declines in other sectors [23][28]. - Volatility remains high for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while black and energy sectors have seen slight decreases in volatility. Liquidity has decreased in precious metals and energy sectors, with other sectors experiencing increases [23][28]. Options Market Factor Tracking - Implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 indices has begun to decline from recent highs. The skew in volatility indicates a decrease in bullish sentiment and an increase in bearish sentiment, suggesting that market participants perceive a lower risk of significant declines in small-cap stocks in the short term [31][32]. Convertible Bond Market Factor Tracking - The convertible bond market has experienced wide fluctuations. The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan has stabilized, showing a slight adjustment, while the proportion of low-premium convertible bonds has increased. However, market transaction volumes remain high [33][34].

- The report tracks quantitative factors in the equity market, highlighting that the market style remains tilted towards small-cap and growth-oriented stocks, with increased volatility in style performance and widened return differences between styles[10][11] - In terms of market structure, the dispersion of excess returns across industries has risen, while industry rotation speed has decreased. The proportion of rising constituent stocks in indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 has declined. Additionally, the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks remained stable, while the top 5 industries saw a slight increase in trading concentration[10][11] - Market activity indicators show a decline in market volatility across most indices except CSI 1000, while turnover rates have continued to rise[10][11] - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals and energy chemicals has increased, while other sectors have seen a decline. Basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, whereas other sectors have declined. Volatility remains high for precious metals and base metals, with slight decreases in energy chemicals and black metals. Liquidity has decreased for precious metals and energy chemicals but increased for other sectors[23][28] - In the options market, implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 has decreased from previous highs. The skewness of call options has declined, while that of put options has increased. Despite this, the skewness of CSI 1000 put options remains negative, indicating that market participants perceive a low risk of significant declines in small-cap stocks in the short term[31][32] - In the convertible bond market, the market experienced wide fluctuations. The premium rate for bonds convertible at par value has stabilized with slight adjustments, while the pure bond premium rate for debt-oriented groups has continued to rise. The proportion of low-conversion-premium bonds has also increased. However, trading volume in the market remains high and has not weakened[33][39]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The government has taken measures to address "involution" in different industries. For example, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to solve the problem of abnormally low prices in government procurement, and the People's Bank of China plans to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to address "involution" in government procurement. Purchasers should form scientific procurement requirements and set reasonable maximum prices [1]. Service Industry - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to a question about potential Sino - US trade negotiations, emphasizing the need to implement the consensus of the two heads of state. The People's Bank of China plans to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening supervision [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Iron ore prices slightly declined. - Agriculture: Egg and pork prices continued to rise. - Non - ferrous: Copper prices slightly declined [2]. Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PX and urea remained high. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [3]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities increased seasonally. - Services: The number of domestic flight schedules decreased [4]. 3.3. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value on 1/21 | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Corn spot price | 2264.3 yuan/ton | + 0.19% | | | Egg spot price | 7.9 yuan/kg | + 3.70% | | | Palm oil spot price | 8724.0 yuan/ton | + 1.09% | | | Cotton spot price | 15837.7 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | | | Average pork wholesale price | 18.5 yuan/kg | + 1.70% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Copper spot price | 100221.7 yuan/ton | - 3.75% | | | Zinc spot price | 24188.0 yuan/ton | - 1.31% | | | Aluminum spot price | 23721.7 yuan/ton | - 3.86% | | | Nickel spot price | 145100.0 yuan/ton | - 3.08% | | Ferrous Metals | Rebar spot price | 3204.7 yuan/ton | - 1.24% | | | Iron ore spot price | 807.6 yuan/ton | - 3.89% | | | Wire rod spot price | 3437.5 yuan/ton | - 1.72% | | | Glass spot price | 12.9 yuan/square meter | - 0.23% | | Non - metals | Natural rubber spot price | 15533.3 yuan/ton | - 1.32% | | | China Plastic City price index | 775.2 | + 0.14% | | Energy | WTI crude oil spot price | 60.4 dollars/barrel | - 0.94% | | | Brent crude oil spot price | 64.9 dollars/barrel | - 0.84% | | | Liquefied natural gas spot price | 3522.0 yuan/ton | - 1.29% | | | Coal price | 806.0 yuan/ton | + 0.62% | | Chemical | PTA spot price | 5044.9 yuan/ton | - 0.96% | | | Polyethylene spot price | 6725.0 yuan/ton | + 2.39% | | | Urea spot price | 1752.5 yuan/ton | + 0.29% | | | Soda ash spot price | 1202.9 yuan/ton | - 0.94% | | Real Estate | National cement price index | 133.7 | - 0.92% | | | Building materials composite index | 114.8 points | - 0.77% | | | National concrete price index | 90.2 points | - 0.17% | [37]