2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区工厂检修，价格走势坚挺 | 5 | | 锰硅：港口矿报价坚挺，盘面宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 782. 5 | 2. 5 | 0. 32% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 125. 074 | -11.810 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) ...

报告类型 黑色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 注：跨品种套利中的螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、焦炭、焦煤为 2605 合约。 单边逻辑依据： RB2605、HC2605 震荡偏弱逻辑： 消息面，中央经济工作会议提出，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作 又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新 并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 黑色品种研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 黑色品种策略推荐 | 单 | | | | | | | | ...

【钢材】供需两弱,偏弱震荡 周四钢联周度数据延续供需两弱,铁水产量本周跌至228+,炉料短期依旧承压。日内期现价格下跌,有关于钢材出口的未 经证实的小作文,看后续会否实锤,但在当前敏感的市场环境里,只要没有被辟谣,可能都会带来一波情绪波动的交易 最近板材的去库压力也偏大,总体还是要关注板材的压力释放。当前铁水产量快速下降触发阶段性负反馈,成本支撑弱 12月先测试铁水产量压力,再看冬储补库节点启动。重要会议先后召开,增量亮点不多,新驱动不清晰。 | | | | | | | | | - FAR ANTERN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/12 | | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market on Thursday showed a widespread decline. The A - share market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports, and it may continue to explore the bottom on Friday. The bond market continued to repair, with the long - end performing stronger. In the agricultural product market, different varieties had different trends, with some showing potential for a rebound and some in a state of shock. The black metal market was affected by factors such as raw material prices and policies, and steel prices were weakly volatile. The non - ferrous metal market was generally driven by the weakening of the US dollar, with some metals rising. The energy and chemical market was under pressure from supply and demand, and most varieties showed a weakening trend [19][22][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices declined, and stock index futures also followed the decline of the spot market. The Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports affected market sentiment. On Friday, the A - share market may explore the bottom due to inertia, and it is recommended to wait for the market to oversell and then go long on the dips. Consider IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage when the discount widens, and use bullish spreads for options [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central economic work conference's statements on fiscal and monetary policies weakened the probability of an unexpected fiscal policy next year and made policy rate cuts still expected. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL contracts on rallies and pay attention to potential futures - spot arbitrage opportunities in TF contracts [22][23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybean index rose slightly, and the US soybean export sales data showed some changes. In the context of a potentially large harvest in South America, international soybeans have a limited upside, but the domestic soybean meal may have a phased rebound due to factors such as profit losses. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and sell wide - straddle options [27][28]. Sugar - International sugar prices were oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices also showed a similar trend. Brazil's sugar production was approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure was gradually easing. In China, although the new sugar season had an increasing production, the high production cost provided some support. It is recommended to build long positions on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [31][33]. Oilseeds and Oils - The external market of oils showed different trends. Malaysian palm oil had a risk of inventory accumulation, while domestic soybean oil was gradually reducing inventory, and rapeseed oil was expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - short trading in a band - trading manner, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35][36]. Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn stabilized, while the domestic northeast corn price was weak, and the port price declined. The 03 corn contract was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the 03 contract on corrections, go long on the 05 and 07 contracts on long - term declines, conduct 3 - 7 corn reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [39][40]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was generally stable, but the overall supply pressure still existed. It is recommended to mainly hold short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [41][42]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price was stable, and large - scale oil mills started to purchase. The 01 peanut contract may have a downward space. It is recommended to lightly go short on the 01 peanut contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][46]. Eggs - Egg prices were mainly stable. The recent reduction in the number of culled chickens had eased the supply pressure. It is recommended to expect the near - term contracts to oscillate in a range and consider building long positions on the far - term contracts on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][49]. Apples - The apple inventory was low, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended that the apple price may oscillate at a high level, conduct long 1 and short 10 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The external market of cotton was weak, but the domestic new cotton sales were good, and there were positive factors such as a possible reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang next year. It is recommended to go long on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][58]. Black Metals Steel - Affected by raw materials such as coal and coke, steel prices were weakly volatile. Although the steel inventory continued to decline, the demand was affected by the season. It is recommended that the steel price will continue to be weakly volatile, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and wait and see for options [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolia planned to increase coal exports, and the market expected a weak trend. The coking coal price continued to decline, and the spot price was also weak. It is recommended that the double - coking futures will continue to be weakly volatile [65][66]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore was generally stable, and the domestic demand for steel products was weak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish view on iron ore, wait and see for arbitrage and options [72][73]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the cost had some support, but the demand was under pressure. For ferromanganese, the cost was rising, but the demand was also weak. It is recommended that ferroalloys will oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [74][75]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Affected by the weakening of the US dollar, gold and silver prices rose. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [77][78]. Platinum and Palladium - Driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the bullish trend of precious metals, platinum and palladium showed a phased upward trend. It is recommended to go long on platinum on the dips based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for palladium, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [81][82]. Copper - The copper price reached a new high due to the weakening of the US dollar. Although the supply was tight in 2026, the downstream demand was insufficient. It is recommended that the copper price will be strongly volatile, pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and wait and see for options [84][88][89]. Alumina - The alumina price was weak due to slow warehouse receipt digestion and high inventory. It is recommended that the alumina price will continue to be weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [91][93]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Driven by macro and micro factors, the aluminum price rebounded. It is recommended that the aluminum price will be strongly driven by the macro - fundamentals, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Affected by the market sentiment, the aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. The spot market was weak, and the demand was weakening. It is recommended that the aluminum alloy will be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [98][101]. Zinc - The zinc price was strongly volatile due to the reduction of domestic social inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][104]. Lead - The lead price oscillated in a range. The domestic supply of secondary lead had a reduction expectation, but the consumption was gradually weakening. It is recommended to try short positions on rallies [107][108]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated downward due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended that the nickel price will continue to decline, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109][111][112]. Stainless Steel - Affected by the decline of the nickel price, the stainless steel price oscillated at a low level. It is recommended that the stainless steel price will oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage [113][114]. Industrial Silicon - Affected by the air pollution warning in Xinjiang, the industrial silicon price may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, and aggressive investors can participate in short - term long positions, conduct long polysilicon and short industrial silicon arbitrage, and stop losses on selling out - of - the - money call options [115]. Polysilicon - Although the downstream demand was under pressure, the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price. It is recommended to buy on corrections, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy both call and put options [116][117]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was running at a high level, but there was a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [119][120]. Tin - Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the tin price rose strongly. It is recommended that the tin price will be strong in the near future, wait and see for options [120][122]. Shipping Container Shipping - The spot freight rate showed some improvements. The 02 contract had incorporated some price - increase expectations and was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to partially take profits and partially hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [125][126]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil supply - demand pressure was difficult to change, and the price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to be bearish on the short - term trend, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil inter - month spread is weak, and wait and see for options [128][129]. Asphalt - The asphalt price was affected by the decline of crude oil prices and was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended that the BU2602 contract will oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [131][132][133]. Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was frequently disturbed by device changes, and the high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to be weakly stable. It is recommended that the fuel oil price will be weakly volatile, the low - sulfur cracking is neutral, the high - sulfur cracking is weak, and wait and see for options [134][136][137]. PX & PTA - The PX supply was abundant, and the PTA had an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that the PX & PTA price will be weakly volatile, conduct PTA1 and 5 contract reverse arbitrage, and sell both options [138][139][140]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene supply was stable and the demand decreased, and the benzene - styrene basis weakened. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][143][144]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol inventory had a de - stocking pressure, and the price was falling. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber supply - demand situation was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [147][148]. Bottle Chips - The bottle chips supply - demand was relatively loose, and the processing fee lacked an upward drive. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [150]. Propylene - The propylene inventory was high, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [151][153]. Plastic PP - The PE capacity utilization rate was stable, and the PP production increased. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts, pay attention to the pressure at recent high points, conduct long L2605 and short PP2605 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [154][155][156]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price was weak due to the large supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [159][160]. PVC - The PVC price continued to decline due to the increase in supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will have difficulty in rebounding, wait and see for arbitrage and options [162][163][164]. Soda Ash - The soda ash supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price was weakening. It is recommended that the price will continue to be weak in the medium - long term, pay attention to the opportunity of short soda ash and long glass spread in the 05 contract, and wait and see for options [165][166][167]. Glass - The glass price oscillated downward due to the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, pay attention to the strategy opportunity of short soda ash and long glass in the 05 contract, conduct reverse arbitrage of 1 - 5 contracts, and wait and see for options [168][169][170]. Methanol - The methanol price continued to decline. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract in the short term, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [172][173]. Urea - The urea trading volume increased, but the futures price continued to decline. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile in the short - and medium - term, and pay attention to policy changes [174][175]. Pulp - The pulp spot price was strong, but the demand was mainly rigid. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions based on the previous high, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][178][179]. Logs - The log fundamentals were weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually take profits on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [181][183]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure of offset printing paper remained high, and the transmission of high pulp prices was less than expected. It is recommended to conduct short operations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2602 - C - 4100 options [184][185][187]. Natural Rubber - The Thai rubber water - cup price difference continued to weaken, and the tire production increased month - on - month. It is recommended to try short positions on the RU 05 contract, hold long positions on the NR 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread, and wait and see for options [188][190][191]. Butadiene Rubber - The high - cis butadiene rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options [192][193][195].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of zinc and nickel, which fell by 0.3% and 0.91% respectively. Tin led the gains with a rise of 1.02%, while copper increased by 0.8% [1] - Aluminum oxide futures dropped by 1.4%, reaching a historical low of 2462 yuan/ton, while casting aluminum futures rose by 0.36% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 3.97%, polysilicon futures increased by 1.32%, and industrial silicon futures rose by 0.06% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coil all fell by over 1%, with iron ore down 1.3% [1] - Internationally, most base metals saw increases, except for nickel, which fell by 0.05% [1] Precious Metals - As of 15:03, COMEX gold rose by 0.32%, while COMEX silver surged by 2.16%, reaching a new high of $63.25/ounce [1] - Domestic gold and silver also saw increases, with Shanghai gold up 0.21% and Shanghai silver up 3.07%, the latter reaching a record of 14665 yuan/kg [1] Macro Environment - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [3] - The World Bank raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points, citing supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3] - Jilin Province's planning document emphasized the need to manage risks in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [3] Oil Market - As of 15:03, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% and 0.61% respectively, amid ongoing attention to peace talks in Ukraine [5] - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [5]

| | | | | | | 三十六年 - 文艺 - 一夜 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 2025/12/11 | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | 执业证号 黑色金属研究中心 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2605 | JM2609 | 7000 - 1000 | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | 6000 800 | | | 12月10日 | 3149.00 | 3292. 00 | 745 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-12-11 上游价格持续分化，关注年末下游促销进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）国家统计局发布数据，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%，环比下降0.1%；全国工业 生产者出厂价格同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。 服务行业：1）北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决议，宣布降息25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场"鹰派降息"预期。"点阵图"显示，决策者预计2026 年只会再降息一次，2027年再降一次，然后利率将回到3%的长期水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前利率水平处 于良好位置，可应对经济前景变化，但他未对近期是否会再次降息提供指引。鲍威尔指出："值得注意的是，自去 年9月以来，我们已累计降息175个基点，其中自今年9月以来就下调了75个基点。目前，联邦基金利率已位于中性 水平的一个大致区间，我们也处于有利位置，可以等待观察经济的进一步发展"。2）全国零售业创新发展大会12 月9日至10日在北京举行，商务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国 内大循 ...

焦炭基差(右轴) 近期双硅价格跟随整个黑色板块震荡,总体看来驱动仍不足。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润收缩，铁水向下 调整,直接需求走弱预期较强。随着终端需求谈李来临，负反馈压力逐步累积。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级治金焦(A13. S0 金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。 = 期货收益价(活跃合约 期双硅供给偏高而需求偏弱,虽然成本支撑走强,但供需过剩格局延续,价格将承压偏弱。 1500 【焦煤焦炭】期货大幅下跌,本周重大会议暂无增量利好 现货端:传焦炭第二轮提降将于周三登场,焦煤竞拍表现依然较弱,流拍较多,不过也有部分焦企适当补充原料库存,少 高性价比资源小幅上涨,港日贸易准一焦炭报价1450(-),炼焦煤价格指数1317.1(-4.6);蒙煤方面;口岸贸易企业 报价有所下调,下游企业询盘间价偏低,市场悲观情绪较浓,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤970(-18),蒙5精煤110(-) 河北唐山:蒙5精煤1390(-)。期货端:煤焦破位后,不断下跌创新低,市场情绪悲观, [M01跌破1000。 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 44 元/吨，跌幅为 1.41%，持仓增加 11.6 万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.26 万吨。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对 2024 年会议未再提 | | | | "超常规"，但提了"跨周期"，或预示 2026 年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能 | | | | 性有所降低。煤焦价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍 | | | | 窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 757.5 元/吨，较前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical news - driven rebound in oil prices has limited space and sustainability, and there is a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term. Gold and silver markets are affected by US economic data and Fed meetings, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. The prices of various metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian companies and the release of restricted oil supplies. The US oil production is expected to set a larger - than - expected record. The market is concerned about the IEA's December report. The oil price rebound has mostly been reversed, and there is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, with a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is influenced by multiple factors and follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the demand drive is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved, but the demand lacks highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and the short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [19]. - **Asphalt**: Some refineries in Hebei have launched winter storage contracts, and the price is higher than market expectations. Some refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residue oil, and the supply has tightened, driving the market price up slightly. The decline of BU following the drop in crude oil prices is limited [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of job openings in the US in October increased, silver reached a new high, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. The market focuses on the Fed meeting, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price adjusted overnight, and some positions took profits when the Fed cut interest rates in December. The market is concerned about the adjustment, and some long positions can be held after taking partial profits [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly overnight. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited, and the overbought situation in the technical aspect is being repaired [5]. - **Zinc**: The long positions took profits at high prices, and the Shanghai zinc price tested the annual line support. The domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease in December, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to rebound following the external market in the short - term, with a resistance level at 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price of lead reduces the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory in the exchange is low, and there is no obvious squeeze - out risk in the near - term. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement at low prices [9]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuated overnight. The Shanghai tin price continued to reduce positions and fell below the moving average. Options strategies can be considered [9]. - **Nickel**: No relevant content provided. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated. The manganese ore spot price increased, and the port inventory has a structural problem. The silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in coal supply, which may lead to a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. The demand has some resilience, and the supply decreased slightly, with the inventory decreasing slightly [17]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the domestic arrival decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore price has a downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations [13]. - **Coke**: The market expects a second - round price cut for coke. The coking profit is average, and the daily output increased slightly. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The output of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreased. The total inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price stabilized overnight. The demand for rebar decreased in the off - season, and the output and inventory decreased. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly. The steel mills' profitability is poor, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The black - series products are under pressure in the short - term, and the market is sensitive to macro - policies [12]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon futures strengthened significantly, driven by the news of the establishment of a polycrystalline silicon consortium. The short - term upward expectation exists, but it needs policy verification to break through the upper limit of the range [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon broke through the previous low. The production reduction effect in the southwest region weakened, and the demand from the organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon industries decreased. The price may continue to decline, but it may be supported at the 8,000 - yuan/ton level [11]. - **Urea**: The urea price decreased slightly. The compound fertilizer enterprises increased their production, and the inventory of urea production enterprises decreased last week. The supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [21]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price continued to decline at night. The inventory at the port is expected to remain high, and the supply along the coast is sufficient. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range [22]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price continued to decline. The port inventory increased, but the supply - demand pressure may be relieved in the future. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend [23]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price decreased, and the pure benzene price may fluctuate within a range, which is difficult to drive the styrene price up. However, the supply - demand structure of styrene has not weakened and may support the price [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene production enterprises' sales are smooth, but the price increase momentum is insufficient. The polyethylene supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply pressure of polypropylene is controllable, but the downstream demand is in the off - season [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price continued to decline. The supply pressure may be relieved if the enterprises are forced to overhaul. The export situation has improved, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price continued to decline, with high supply and low demand, and the industry inventory is under pressure [26]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell at night. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA output increased slightly. The terminal weaving load continued to decline. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to be repaired [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market was boosted by the news of device shutdowns. The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure. The long - term pressure still exists [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber load is high, and the inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The bottle - chip demand is weak, and the production capacity is in surplus, with the price mainly driven by costs [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean data in the December USDA report remained unchanged. The South American weather has improved, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased. The strategy is to wait and see the South American weather, and consider going long if the weather deteriorates [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet remained unchanged in December. Argentina will reduce the export tax on soybeans and their products. The market expects the palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase. The short - term view is that the prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate within a range [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is facing the supply impact of new crops. The supply is at its loosest stage, and the demand lacks positive factors. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import is diversified. The short - term price is expected to be weak [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price is in a sideways shock adjustment. The policy will auction imported soybeans. The short - term US soybean price is in a callback, and the medium - term price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the domestic soybean spot and policy [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline in a shock pattern. The US corn export data increased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. The supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast is tight, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. The short - term 01 contract may decline, and the 03 and 05 contracts can be considered for long - positions after the decline [37]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 03 contract rebounded slightly, and the far - month contracts were weak. The impact of the epidemic on the pig supply is expected to be limited. The industry needs to reduce inventory, and the pig price may have a second - bottoming in the first half of next year [38]. - **Egg**: The egg futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased. The 01 contract price is expected to be weak due to the convergence of futures and spot prices. The far - month contracts have reached a short - term high [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price increased slightly. The domestic cotton sales progress is fast, but the downstream orders are weak, which limits the cotton price. The operation strategy is to wait and see [40]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated. The sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [41]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price fluctuated at a high level. The cold - storage apple sales are average, and the price is strong. The short - term price is strong, but the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure [42]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but the port delivery increased last week. The low inventory supports the price, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price decreased at night. The port inventory decreased, and the new - year contract may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk's pricing strategy is cautious, and the downward freight rate center is expected to be around $2400 - 2500/FEU. The loading rate is increasing, but the market lacks strong driving factors. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate [18]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market was mixed, and the stock index futures closed down. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision. The A - share market is expected to be strong in a shock pattern, and investors can increase positions slightly at low prices after the uncertainty is relieved [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures fluctuated and adjusted. The interest - rate bond yields decreased. The market is still cautious, and investors can participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties after the liquidity is restored [46].