SHMET 网讯：今年上半年，欧洲经济回暖、美国经济维持韧性、日韩经济偏弱，发达经济体大宗商品需求增速企稳。新兴经济体方面，除印度维持较 高的经济增速外，其他经济体经济增速走弱，大宗商品需求增速略有下降。随着美国对其他国家暂缓加征关税的窗口期进入最后1天倒计时，市场投资者对 下半年全球大宗商品需求预期存在较大分歧。 铜：三季度价格或阶段性承压（金瑞期货 孟昊 吴梓杰 林泓） 今年上半年，市场预计美国将加征铜关税，叠加"对等关税"的影响，伦铜价格出现宽幅波动，估值持续抬升，均价在9500美元／吨左右。此外，由于 COMEX期铜的虹吸作用，期限结构由Contango转为Back。 宏观方面，美国经济下行压力加大，预计美联储下半年将降息1到2次，最早的降息时点或出现在9月份。在宏观政策托底的情况下，我国经济复苏节奏 逐步加快。 基本面方面，需求端需要关注原料进口情况。铜关税落地前，铜现货仍将流入美国，流入规模约18万吨，整体来看对铜价短期利多、长期利空。我国上 半年的原料进口规模在35万吨左右，预计未来继续增长的概率偏低。基于原料库存水平已经较低，我国下半年的合理月均精铜产量预计在105万～108万吨。 供应端，机 ...

Report Overview - Date: July 31, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Scope: Black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, experiencing wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Influenced by macro - sentiment, showing a moderately weak and volatile trend [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: After sentiment realization, undergoing wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, stabilizing in a volatile manner [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton (-1.13%). Imported ore prices decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The trend intensity is 0 [4]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan the second - half economic work [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,315 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.42%); HC2510 closed at 3,483 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.81%). Some spot prices increased, and there were changes in inventory and production data [6][8]. - **News**: The government will regulate enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity management in key industries. There were also updates on price law amendments and steel production data [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices declined, while some spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, and the price of manganese ore rose. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10]. - **News**: There were price increases in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, changes in enterprise production rates in different regions, and updates on steel mills' procurement prices and manganese ore quotes [11][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: JM2509 closed at 1,117 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.31%); J2509 closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, up 43.5 yuan/ton (2.66%). Some spot prices remained stable, while others changed slightly. The trend intensity for both is 0 [16]. - **News**: There were updates on port prices and member - position changes in the futures market [16][18]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading yesterday. There were quotes for southern port and domestic origin coal, and no changes in member - position in the futures market. The trend intensity is 0 [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed varying degrees of decline or change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [25]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to plan the second - half economic work [27].

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 螺纹--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.30） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3315 14 0.42% 3450 135 | | 热卷 | 3483 28 0.81% 3450 -33 | | 铁矿 | 789 -3.5 -0.44% 775 -14 | | 焦煤 | 1117 29.5 2.71% 980 -137 | | 焦炭 | 1676.5 64.5 4.00% 1359 -317.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货有涨有跌。螺纹收于3315元/吨，上涨0.42%；热卷主力合 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment remains strong, focusing on "rotation and supplementary gains," with growth expected to follow the cyclical trends. Market transactions have further increased, and the sentiment is still heated, making it easier for indices to rise while the downside risk is limited [2][4] - The market rotation characteristics have continued, shifting from a "barbell contraction" to an "expansion," although chasing gains remains challenging. It is recommended to reduce operations and select relatively low-position thematic directions for layout and holding, waiting for opportunities for "rotation and supplementary gains" [2][4] Stock Market Factors - In the past week, the small-cap growth style outperformed, while the volatility of large and small-cap styles remained at a near one-year low. The volatility of value and growth styles has increased [6] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices remained at a near one-year low, with the speed of industry rotation oscillating upward and the proportion of rising constituent stocks increasing. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries has slightly decreased [6] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of the precious metals sector remains at a near one-year high, while the trend strength of the black sector has rapidly increased. The basis momentum of the precious metals sector is rising, while other sectors show oscillating downward trends [15] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 have shown an upward trend, with the skew of call options maintaining previous levels while the skew of put options has significantly decreased. The market is generally optimistic due to policy-driven and sentiment-driven factors [21] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan remains resilient, continuing to rise slightly, with less than 10 basis points difference from the peak in May. The proportion of low premium rate convertible bonds has shown signs of weakening, especially those below 5%, while the trading volume in the convertible bond market has increased alongside the heat in the equity market [26]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a Black Metal R & D report on ferroalloys dated July 29, 2025 [2] - The research analyst is Zhou Tao, with relevant qualification numbers and contact information provided [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 6110, up 270 daily and 236 weekly, with trading volume of 726,721 (down 491,602) and open interest of 196,312 (up 769) [4] - SM main contract closed at 6212, up 184 daily and 200 weekly, with trading volume of 1,009,206 (down 238,021) and open interest of 347,380 (down 6,026) [4] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and some other regions had price increases, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia at 5,650 (up 50 daily and 250 weekly), and Jiangsu and Tianjin at 5,850 [4] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other regions also saw price hikes, with Inner Mongolia at 5,800 (up 100 daily and 100 weekly), and Jiangsu at 6,100 [4] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -460 (down 220 daily and up 14 weekly), and SF - SM spread was -102 (up 86 daily and 36 weekly) [4] - For silicomanganese, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -412 (down 84 daily and 100 weekly), and Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 50 (unchanged daily and up 50 weekly) [4] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was 40 (unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly), South African semi - carbonate was 34.8 (unchanged daily and up 0.1 weekly), and Gabon lump was 40 (up 0.5 daily and 0.7 weekly) [4] - For semi - coke small pieces, prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strength, but due to recent sharp and volatile market, no chasing of rising prices [7] - Arbitrage: Close the long ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese position, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: Hold off [7] Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon: On July 29, spot prices were firm with slight increases in some regions. Supply increased slightly with rising prices. Demand was supported by high steel mill output due to good steel profits. Market sentiment was boosted by the rebound of coking coal, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices [6] - Silicomanganese: On July 29, manganese ore and silicomanganese spot prices were firm. Supply also increased slightly with price increases. Demand was supported by good steel profits, and the cost of port manganese ore was relatively strong. The fundamentals were healthy, but due to market volatility, no chasing of rising prices [6] Important Information - On July 29, Tianjin Port had semi - carbonate at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump at 40.5 - 41 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump at 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump at 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree [8] - On July 29, Hebei steel mills raised the purchase price of coke, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Related Attachments Price Charts - There are charts showing the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread of main contracts SF - SM, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia), and the spot prices of silicomanganese and Inner Mongolia silicomanganese [11][15][16] Cost and Profit Charts - There are charts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese cost and profit, including production costs and profits in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [19][22] - For ferrosilicon, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,421 with a profit of 79, and in Ningxia were 5,274 with a profit of 226 [19] - For silicomanganese, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,747 with a profit of 3, and in Guangxi were 6,241 with a loss of 521 [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply has generally improved, demand has declined, and the supply - demand structure has weakened on a month - on - month basis. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, making it difficult to return to a downward trend. The strategy is to mainly wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 29, black - series commodity futures showed mixed performance. Rebar closed at 3347 yuan/ton, up 1.98%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3503 yuan/ton, up 2.01%; iron ore's main contract closed at 798 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal's decline exceeding 6% [1] Market Analysis - Market sentiment has recovered. Iron ore futures rose with finished products, ending a four - day losing streak. There is a need for a rebound after continuous decline, and the prices of finished products and raw materials have risen in tandem. Long - process steel mills' profits have not been significantly compressed. Short - term foreign ore supply has decreased, domestic demand remains high, and the short - term accumulation pressure of port inventories is small, so iron ore is in a relatively strong real - world situation [1] - Last week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.16 tons to 1336.5 tons, for the fourth consecutive week of small declines. Production decreased slightly by 1.22 tons, and the weekly change in apparent demand was small. The off - season characteristics are not obvious. Terminal market demand in the off - season maintains resilience, and the profitability of steel mills is good. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills has increased to 63.64%, a nine - month high. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate have slightly declined, reaching 83.46% and 90.81% respectively. The daily average pig iron output has decreased by 0.21 tons to 242.23 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09%. In the traditional off - season, iron ore demand maintains resilience [1] - The total global iron ore shipment volume this period increased by 91.8 tons week - on - week to 3200.9 tons, reaching a one - month high and being at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. Australia's shipment volume increased sharply by 230.2 tons to 1859.6 tons, an increase of over 14%. Brazil's shipment volume decreased slightly, and the shipment volume from non - mainstream regions decreased by over 20%. From July 21 to July 27, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2319.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192.1 tons. Port inventories decreased again. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 14281.73 tons, a decrease of 106.83 tons from the previous Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 13686.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.63 tons [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - based approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

Core Viewpoints - The current market conditions are conducive to a bull market driven by policy and liquidity, with deflation and a downturn in the real estate market unlikely to change the overall bullish trend [1][6]. Industry Research - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai showcased over 800 companies, with more than 50% being international, indicating a significant interest in AI technologies. AI is expected to be a major application area, particularly in programming [3]. - The mining and metallurgy sector is expected to see a divergence, with bullish sentiment on non-ferrous metals due to inventory cycles, while black metals are anticipated to face downward price pressure [11]. - The "anti-involution" theme is emerging, with funds favoring low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as traditional industries and certain new energy sectors like wind and solar [12]. - The market is shifting towards a rotation phase, focusing on previously lagging sectors such as coal, utilities, and real estate, indicating a search for undervalued assets [13]. Equity Market - The A-share market has shown strong performance since June, with a favorable external environment and liquidity conditions. However, internal pressures from fundamentals and policy responses are expected to create a balancing act [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to see a structural market where tech stocks can perform independently despite a lack of overall market trends [7]. - The current A-share market resembles the 2014-2015 period, with a clear trend of household savings moving into the stock market, favoring thematic investments and high-quality growth stocks [22].

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01 ...

周三铁元素期价上冲动能略微放缓,带着现货量价都有降温,焦煤焦炭却还强势,后续可能会进入到品种间分化且涨势出 匪煤县寿(石册 800 50000 4000 600 3000 400 【钢材】情绪略微降温 2000 200 分歧的阶段,但并不能确定高点拐点己经出现。产业层面,关注本周钢材产量端变化,若延续需求韧性且能继续承接供 1000 增产,那么将继续支撑炉料偏强的格局。盘面10 合约螺纹相对更弱一些,这与近期螺纹期货仓单量快速回升存在相关性, 压制近月合约螺纹估值。目前期现套暂还没有解锁,期现正套依然锁住一部分现货货物流。单边,黑色系可能会出现波动加 -200 大,可观察是否回踩均线有支撑。行情的锚点主要在于期货市场资金驱动和情绪波动,重点关注 IC + 7202 50 + 7202 20 + 7202 【焦煤焦炭】焦煤继续涨停板,焦炭第三轮提涨井后 现货端,焦炭第三轮提涨登场,预计很快落地,焦煤现货竞拍情绪火爆,成交价大幅上涨。港口贸易准一焦炭报价1420(+ 40),炼焦煤价格指数1102.5(+31.7);蒙煤方面,市场报价再创新高,下游拿货情绪有所好转,现甘其毛都口岸,蒙5 焦炭基差(右轴) 原煤99 ...