Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [74] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked Trump's "Day of Liberation" tariffs, leading to a slight decline in gold prices. As of May 30, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.8% to 930.2 tons. Short-term uncertainties in U.S. policy, trade negotiations, and geopolitical factors continue to support safe-haven demand for gold. In the medium to long term, ongoing macro uncertainties abroad and the weakening of the dollar's credit are expected to enhance gold's monetary attributes, leading to a positive outlook for gold prices [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: Domestic metal inventories remain relatively low, with a focus on downstream demand in June [5]. As of May 30, LME copper futures fell by 1.2% to $9,497 per ton, while domestic copper social inventory reached 138,700 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,200 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 149,900 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory reduction. The copper market shows resilience, and if downstream demand exceeds expectations, copper prices may enter an upward channel [6][7]. - Aluminum: As of May 30, LME aluminum futures fell by 0.7% to $2,448.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 511,000 tons, with a reduction of 46,000 tons. The global electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline. Despite some seasonal weakness in downstream sectors, demand remains resilient, and the aluminum price is expected to rise in the medium to long term due to policy support and improved demand expectations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have slightly declined due to tariff uncertainties, but medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to macro uncertainties and dollar weakening [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Domestic demand is gradually recovering, with a long-term demand space opening up due to industrialization in emerging markets. The tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to support prices [6][7]. - Aluminum: The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to strong demand and reduced inventory levels [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Zijin Mining for copper, and Tianshan Aluminum for aluminum [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the gold price trend remains upward despite fluctuations caused by tariff expectations, with a strong focus on inflation resilience and long-term interest rates [5] - Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating around a cost level of $9,350 due to tariff uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [6] - Aluminum prices are projected to rise, supported by strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [6] - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to tight supply and stable demand from the steel sector [7] - Rare earth prices are under short-term pressure but are expected to recover as export controls ease and mining quotas are issued [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,668.39, with a weekly high of 5,020.22 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price declines: Copper down 1.03%, Aluminum down 1.39%, Zinc down 2.93%, Lead down 1.23%, and Tin down 6.73% - Precious metals experienced mixed results: Gold up 0.41%, Silver down 0.93%, Platinum down 9.60% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: Copper down 11,442 tons, Aluminum down 12,499 tons, Zinc down 12,099 tons, Lead down 4,080 tons, Tin down 106 tons, and Nickel down 681 tons [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, which is expected to support copper price increases. As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 77,600 RMB/ton, down 0.2% from May 23, while LME copper closed at 9,497 USD/ton, also down 0.24% [1]. - Supply-side disruptions in copper mining are increasing, leading to overall supply tightness. Demand is expected to weaken as the inventory replenishment effect from tariffs diminishes and the domestic market enters a seasonal slowdown [1]. - The report anticipates that copper prices will stabilize in the short term but may rise gradually following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9% [2]. - As of May 30, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 796,000 tons, up 2% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 436,000 tons as of May 23, 2025, down 3.5% week-on-week [2]. Supply - In April, imported scrap copper was 168,000 tons, up 7% month-on-month but down 7% year-on-year [2]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper was 1,142 RMB/ton as of May 30, 2025, up 275 RMB/ton from May 23 [2]. Smelting - Domestic electrolytic copper production in May was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year [3]. - The spot price of TC was -43.45 USD/pound as of May 30, 2025, still at a low level since September 2007 [3]. - Net imports of electrolytic copper from January to April totaled 897,000 tons, down 17.7% year-on-year [3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, while air conditioning production in August is expected to grow by 2.7% year-on-year [3]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 78.67% as of May 29, 2025 [3]. - Air conditioning production is projected to increase by 11.5%, 6.3%, and 2.7% in June, July, and August respectively [3]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 19% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7% [4]. - As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were 173,000 lots, up 19.4% from the previous week [4]. - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This is a long-short strategy that dynamically holds long positions in commodities with high roll yields and short positions in commodities with low roll yields. The strategy aims to capture the term structure premium in commodity markets while reducing dependency on single market trends[33][35][34]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Roll Yield Factor**: The roll yield is calculated to measure the contango or backwardation state of a commodity. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with high roll yields are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with low roll yields are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Balancing**: The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain the desired exposure to the roll yield factor[35][38]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates flexibility in adapting to market risks and provides stable returns even in weak market trends[34]. 2. Model Name: Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy captures medium- to long-term trends in commodity prices using multiple technical indicators. It dynamically allocates long positions to upward-trending assets and short positions to downward-trending assets[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Trend Indicators**: Technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum are used to identify price trends. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with upward trends are allocated long positions, while those with downward trends are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated trend signals[35][45]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively tracks price trends but may underperform in volatile or trendless markets[45]. 3. Model Name: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy uses inventory data to capture fundamental changes in commodity markets. Commodities with declining inventories are allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Inventory Factor**: Changes in inventory levels are calculated to assess supply-demand dynamics. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with declining inventories are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated inventory data[35][49]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy is effective in capturing fundamental supply-demand imbalances but may be sensitive to data accuracy and reporting delays[49]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 3.03% (YTD 2025)[33][38] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: -1.33% (YTD 2025)[45] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 2.88% (YTD 2025)[49] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Roll Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the contango or backwardation state of a commodity to capture the term structure premium[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the roll yield as the difference between the spot price and the futures price. 2. Normalize the roll yield across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their roll yields and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 2. Factor Name: Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures medium- to long-term price trends using technical indicators[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use moving averages, momentum, and other technical indicators to identify trends. 2. Normalize trend signals across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their trend strength and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 3. Factor Name: Inventory Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures changes in inventory levels to capture supply-demand imbalances[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the percentage change in inventory levels over a specified period. 2. Normalize inventory changes across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their inventory changes and allocate positions accordingly[35]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Roll Yield Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Trend Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Inventory Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows signs of upward momentum with a decrease in copper inventory and an increase in production rates, indicating a tightening supply situation [12][13] - The aluminum sector faces slight pressure due to the end of demand from the photovoltaic sector, with expectations of a demand test in June [12][14] - The gold market is experiencing reduced short-term safe-haven appeal due to easing inflation and fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [12][15] - The rare earth sector is expected to see a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices due to export controls and supply disruptions [12][36] - The antimony market is projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply, despite recent price corrections [12][37] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [12][38] - Tin prices are experiencing a decline due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [12][39] - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [12][40] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a positive turning point with expected supply tightening in June [12] - Aluminum faces demand pressure as the photovoltaic installation rush ends [12] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see price increases driven by supply constraints and central bank purchases [12] 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.22% to $9,497.00 per ton, with domestic inventory continuing to decline [13] - The smelting sector shows increased production rates, indicating a robust supply chain [13] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.71% to $2,448.50 per ton, with inventory levels dropping [14] - The operational rate of aluminum processing remains stable, providing some support for future demand [14] 2.3 Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce, influenced by U.S. inflation trends [15] - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating ongoing interest despite short-term price fluctuations [15] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing a robust upward trend due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [12][36] - Antimony prices are expected to recover as global supply tightens [12][37] 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for various rare earth elements are increasing, driven by export controls and supply disruptions [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [37] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [38] 4.4 Tin - Tin prices are declining due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [39] 4.5 Tungsten - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs may lead to a recovery in the copper sector, driven by improved export and macroeconomic expectations, alongside tight copper supply [5] - The aluminum sector is expected to see a rebound in exports, although attention must be paid to downstream production changes [5] - The gold sector is positioned for potential recovery due to rising risk aversion stemming from increased US fiscal concerns and new tariffs on EU imports [5] - Small metals like tungsten and rare earths are showing price increases overseas, which may gradually transmit to domestic markets [5] - The steel sector is anticipated to benefit from urban renewal projects and a favorable cost environment, leading to improved profitability expectations [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Copper Sector - Recent LME copper price was $9,595 per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.6% - SHFE copper price was 77,790 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -0.4% - Copper social inventory recorded 139,900 tons, up 7900 tons week-on-week, indicating initial stockpiling in the off-season [5] Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum price was $2,437 per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.5% - SHFE aluminum price was 20,155 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.1% - The aluminum processing enterprise operating rate fell to 61.4%, indicating a mixed demand landscape [5] Gold Sector - SHFE gold price was 780 RMB per gram, with a week-on-week change of +3.8% - COMEX gold price was $3,358 per ounce, with a week-on-week change of +4.8% - Increased concerns over US fiscal risks and new tariffs are expected to elevate gold prices [5] Small Metals Sector - Rare earth prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides were 429,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.0% - Tungsten prices for tungsten concentrate were 165,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.9% [5] Steel Sector - SHFE rebar price was 3,046 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.2% - SHFE hot-rolled coil price was 3,189 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.1% - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to launch approximately 3 trillion RMB in quality projects this year, enhancing demand expectations [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, the psychological price of nickel ore has decreased, and the cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened. In the medium term, the supply remains loose, which restricts the upside potential. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the news from the ore end still affects short - term market trends. The nickel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by the weak operation of nickel. The spot market trading atmosphere is weak, and the terminal purchases mainly for rigid demand. The overall supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has eased. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is bearish. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is difficult to boost. The raw material cost support is weakening, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is clear. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 56,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a long - term loosening trend, but the short - term TC increase is weak. The demand side is stable, but there is a weakening expectation after the peak season. The inventory decline supports the price. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy can be considered. The main contract price is expected to range from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory reduction and tight spot supply support the price, with a short - term support level of 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the low inventory supports the price, but the lack of macro - positive factors and the pressure on the demand side limit the upside. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 21,000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the downside, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price focusing on the range of 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The tin supply is expected to be restored, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.40% to 121,525 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1.31% to 122,625 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 13.64% to 2,500 yuan/ton [1]. Cost - The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowinning nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.24% to 27,742 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14% to 44,151 tons [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.80% to 51.08 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.98% to 60,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.00% to 59,300 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. The total inventory increased by 6.81% to 96,202 tons [5]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,830 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, refined zinc production increased by 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and exports increased by 75.76% to 0.25 million tons. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.72% to 7.50 million tons [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.15% to 20,380 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [11]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 360.60 million tons. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.26% to 51.10 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,485 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton [12]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 4.81% to 78.03 million tons [12]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.23% to 259,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons. SHEF inventory increased by 0.33% to 8,445 tons [14].

银河有色 有色研发报告 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因市场评估特朗普政府与美国贸易法院裁决之间的较量，伦敦 | | 研究员：王伟 | 金先跌后涨，盘中一度失守 3250 美元关口，随后持续上涨超 80 美元，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 3317.8 美元/盎司。伦敦银收涨 1%，报 33.3 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 773.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.28%，报 8235 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数先涨后跌，盘中冲上 100 大关，随后持续回吐日内全部涨幅并转 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 跌，最终收跌 0.6%，报 99.28。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].