工业硅
Search documents
黄金:中美谈判略有进展,白银:震荡回落
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 01:37
Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250507
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 09:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Supply is at a low level, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. It is recommended to lightly short the industrial silicon main contract 2506 around 8600 yuan/ton, with a stop - loss price of 8800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8290 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract position is 179,536 lots, up 13,001 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5534 lots, up 1949 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 68,930 lots, down 306 lots; the spread between the June - July contracts is - 30 yuan, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 910 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 603,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,600 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.39 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.1 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 60.11%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Last year, the gross profit margins of JinkoSolar and JA Solar in China were negative, - 10.41% and - 7.98% respectively; Trina Solar had the best gross profit margin performance at 6.36%, followed by LONGi Green Energy at 4.39%. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. Due to the low market conditions, some small and medium - sized enterprises can no longer operate at a loss, and most enterprises in the southwest are in a shutdown state except state - owned enterprises. The photovoltaic industry is affected by the industry self - discipline agreement, with low operating rates and reduced demand for industrial silicon. The price of organic silicon has declined again, and related enterprises have further reduced production, resulting in lower demand for industrial silicon. The aluminum alloy industry has shown mediocre performance in the first quarter, with no obvious improvement in demand, and export volume has declined year - on - year [2]
供需持续失衡,工业硅延续探底
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 05:01
工业硅月报 供需持续失衡,工业硅延续探底 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 2025 年 5 月 7 日 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 16 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面,我国4月制造业PMI陷入萎缩,而工业企 业利润同比增速转正,美国对华关税态度软化推动 人民币汇率升值,央行MLF延续净投放,"两新政策" 引领下我国经济内循环将逐渐加速,政治局会议强 调超常规宏观政策储备仍然充裕,我国将继续全力 推进科技创新和高质量发展。 ...
工业硅晨报:供需双减成本塌陷,硅价加速探底-20250507
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 03:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the industrial cost has collapsed. The contract value is approaching the cash cost of leading enterprises, and it is accelerating to find the bottom in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The industrial silicon spot market was weakly stable yesterday. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,000 - 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,325, down 2.57%. It continued to decline with a significant increase in positions. The main contract added 13,001 positions in a single day, with the current position at 179,500 lots and the trading volume at 11.279 billion yuan [1] Supply - end - The industrial silicon production in Gansu was relatively stable, but there might be a shift to production reduction due to price impacts recently. The output of 97 silicon remained low, and it was difficult to increase the short - term production. The operating rate of intermediate frequency furnaces was low, and the price was still at a low level, but the inquiry situation of traders improved. The market continued to decline, some manufacturers lowered their quotes, the "buy on rising" sentiment intensified, and buyers were still dominant. There were a small number of transactions of low - priced goods from some spot - futures traders [1] Demand - end - The price of polysilicon was temporarily stable, but the demand further declined, and the silicon material price was under pressure. The prices of N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material were 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells were lowered again, and the market was obviously weak. The rapid decline in demand led to an imbalance in supply and demand in each link. The price of organic silicon DMC fluctuated. The market's mainstream opening price was 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some new units of monomer plants entered planned maintenance in May, and the price of the organic silicon spot market stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises were still digesting pre - holiday inventories, and there was no significant increase in demand in the short term. The spot prices of aluminum alloy ingots in some regions decreased, the terminal demand was continuously weak, the phenomenon of production reduction or suspension of procurement by die - casting enterprises increased, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and alloy ingot enterprises were accumulating inventories [1] Inventory - On May 6, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 68,930 lots, a single - day decrease of 360 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]
有色早报-20250506
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 11:17
| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡,关税情绪改善。供应端,本周国内T ...
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250506
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 11:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Report's Core View - Supply is at a low level as some small and medium - sized enterprises in the southwest (except state - owned enterprises) have stopped production due to the low market price, and there may be delays or cancellations of production resumption during the wet season. Demand has decreased as the photovoltaic industry's开工率 is low, the terminal demand for the photovoltaic industry has cooled, and the procurement enthusiasm for industrial silicon has declined. The organic silicon industry has further reduced production, and the downstream aluminum alloy industry has weak demand and declining exports. Inventory remains high. It is recommended to lightly short the industrial silicon main contract 2506 around 8600, with a stop - loss price of 8800, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan; the main contract position is 179,536 lots, an increase of 13,001 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 7483 lots, a decrease of 3267 lots; the warehouse receipt of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,236 lots, a decrease of 131 lots; the price difference between the 6 - 7 month contracts is - 30 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon is 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 975 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 603,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,600 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.49 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons, an increase of 691.08 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 60.11%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Wuxi Aotaiwei Technology Co., Ltd. (688516.SH) reported 2024 annual revenue of 9.198 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 45.94%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.273 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.36%. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. Some small and medium - sized enterprises in the industrial silicon industry have stopped production due to the low market price [2]
工业硅晨报:处于产能出清阶段,硅价加速探底-20250506
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 04:59
晨报 工业硅 工业硅:处于产能出清阶段,硅价加速探底 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 从业资格号:F03127144 投资咨询号:Z0020161 电话:021-20857653 整理 逻辑:上周工业硅市场继续下跌,部分牌号现货价格有近 250 元/吨降幅。 目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9300-9500 元/吨,华东 421#硅在 10100-10300 元/吨。 期货端:五一节前最后一个交易日,资金避险减仓明显,期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8540,-1.21%,主力单日减仓 28618 手,当前持仓为 16.65 万手。 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人:赵 毅 供给端:本周新疆大厂有继续减产计划,据悉目前在开矿热炉 22 台,减产 后 ...
五矿期货文字早评-20250506
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]
基本面弱势,现货博弈加剧
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-05 09:42
周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 基本面弱势,现货博弈加剧 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 西北某大厂表示后期有减产意愿,但具体减产时间不确定。随 丰水期到来,四川在五一节之后部分硅厂有复工计划。需求端 仍无起色,有机硅大厂检修、多晶硅大厂延迟复产,对工业硅 需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9400- 9700 元/吨。后续关注供给端边际变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 硅料现货成交有限,预计大量成交将待五一之后。考虑龙头企 业西南基地复产推迟及部分企业有减产检修计划,我们下修 5 月多晶硅排产至 9.9 万吨左右,环比 4 月有所减少。根据 SMM,截至 4 月 30 日,中国多晶硅厂库存 26.1 万吨,环比 +0.2 万吨。下游原材料库存约 11 万吨,下降至 1 个月水平左 右,并在硅片厂中呈不均匀分布,部分企业无太多囤货有刚需 采购需求,部分企业硅料库存仍较为充足、策略仍以消化在手 库存为主。上下游博弈剧烈,买方基于需求转弱、下游价格下 跌,心理预期价格较低,而卖方考虑下游部分刚需采购、且从 上市公司披露的一季报情况看,即使是 Q1 价格也已致使头部 硅料企业亏损大量现金流,因此买 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250430
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 07:35
| 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 寇帝斯 Z0021810 | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 4月29日 | 4月28日 | 演讲 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14550 | 14550 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -85 | -180 | વેર | 52.78% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14200 | 14300 | -100 | -0.70% | | | 非标价差 | -435 | -430 | G5 | -1.16% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.30 | 52.05 | 0.25 | 0.48% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 58.25 | 58.00 | 0.25 | 0.43% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12800 | ...