1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets continued their high - level volatile and differentiated operation. Macro - disturbances were the core factor for short - term price fluctuations. The platinum - strong and palladium - weak structural pattern is likely to continue. In the short term, the markets will focus on the "oil price - inflation expectation - US dollar interest rate path" for games. In the medium term, platinum's fundamentals are better than palladium's. It is recommended to conduct light - position range trading and pay attention to US inflation data, oil price trends, and Fed policy expectations [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The platinum and palladium markets were volatile and differentiated. The US - Iran situation, US employment and inflation data affected the market. Platinum's supply was weak and demand was supported, while palladium's demand was single - structured and faced long - term pressure [8] - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, if the US - Iran situation is unstable and oil prices remain high, platinum and palladium prices may be under pressure. In the medium term, platinum has stronger support, and the platinum - strong and palladium - weak pattern will likely continue [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: Affected by the strong US dollar, platinum and palladium markets were weak this week, following gold and silver prices. As of March 13, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main contract 2606 was at 408.10 yuan/gram, down 3.18% week - on - week; the platinum main contract 2606 was at 541.60 yuan/gram, down 3.37% week - on - week [9][13] - **Net Long Positions**: NYMEX platinum and palladium net long positions were differentiated. As of March 3, 2026, NYMEX platinum net long positions increased by 3.39% to 20,270 contracts, and palladium net long positions increased by 7.22% to - 1,631 contracts [14][16] - **Basis**: The basis of the NYMEX and Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of March 12, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was 46.80 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 40.50 US dollars/ounce; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum main contract basis was - 11.2 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract basis was - 28.60 yuan/gram [17][21][26] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 2.14% to 200,716.01 ounces, and palladium inventory remained unchanged at 582,440.79 ounces as of March 12, 2026 [27][31] - **Price Ratio**: Platinum and gold prices were highly correlated, and the gold - platinum ratio slightly rebounded this week [32] 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - **Import and Export**: As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium increased [37] - **Demand**: The demand for platinum and palladium in automobile exhaust catalysts has been declining due to the rising proportion of the new - energy vehicle market. The total demand for platinum and palladium is moderately slowing [43][49] - **Supply**: The supply pattern of platinum and palladium is differentiated, and geopolitical situations have tightened platinum supply [54] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium main contracts widened this week [58] 3.4 Macroeconomics - The US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to be strong this week [62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 5.71%, and the far - month contracts rose between 9 - 17%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1545.46, up 82.06 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. Geopolitical tensions, Trump's tariff war resurgence, and the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates in April forcing shipments and stockpiling in March supported the futures prices. The supply - demand pattern shifted from a slack off - season to a tight balance in the short term, strengthening the shipping companies' bargaining power. However, the geopolitical situation is unknown, the tariff war may change the balance again, and there are limitations to the price increase in March and April, so investors are advised to be cautious [6][7][39] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively this week. The main contract EC2604 closed up 5.71%, and the far - month contracts rose between 9 - 17%. The SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1545.46, up 5.6% month - on - month. The EC2604 contract's trading volume was mainly volatile, and the open interest declined [6][9][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran will not give up revenge, and the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The US will launch trade investigations on 16 major trading partners, which may lead to new tariffs. The EU warned that high oil prices could impact inflation and economic growth. The IEA released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and the US will "slightly" cut its strategic oil reserves [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European Line capacity fluctuated and rebounded. The BDI and BPI declined rapidly, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Capesize ships dropped significantly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened [25][30][33] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) are supported by factors such as geopolitical deterioration, shrinking effective capacity, tariff wars, and pre - shipment stockpiling. The short - term supply - demand pattern has shifted to a tight balance, but the geopolitical situation is unknown, and the shipping companies' price increase may be difficult to implement. Investors are advised to be cautious, control risks, and track relevant data and events [7][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the precious metals market showed a high - level volatile pattern. The prices of gold and silver were affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, crude oil fluctuations, and US macro - data. The market was in a tug - of - war between "rising rate - cut expectations" and "growing concerns about imported inflation" [6]. - In the short - term, the development of the US - Iran situation is the core factor affecting the trend of gold and silver. If the situation remains volatile, the prices of precious metals will likely continue to fluctuate. If the geopolitical situation eases, the Fed's mid - year rate - cut expectations may rise again, supporting the prices of gold and silver. In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains intact, and it is recommended to make long - term investments on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - This week, the precious metals market was in a high - level volatile pattern. At the beginning of the week, due to Trump's signals of easing the US - Iran conflict, some funds flowed back to precious metals, pushing up prices. US macro - data affected the market's rate - cut expectations. Later, concerns about inflation and the strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields suppressed precious metals prices [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of March 13, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 was reported at 20,923 yuan/kg, down 3.76% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 was reported at 1,133 yuan/g, down 0.68% for the week [11]. - **ETF Net Positions**: As of March 12, 2026, the net positions of gold and silver ETFs on the external market had a small outflow. The net position of SPDR gold ETF was 1,077.28 tons, a 0.35% decrease; the net position of SLV silver ETF was 15,655 tons, a 2% decrease [16]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of March 3, 2026, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased. The net position of COMEX gold was 160,145 contracts, a 0.60% increase; the net position of COMEX silver was 23,338 contracts, a 4.84% increase [21]. - **Basis Changes**: As of March 12, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold and silver main contracts weakened week - on - week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.10 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 14 yuan/kg [24]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads**: As of March 12, 2026, the domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver widened. The domestic - foreign price spread of the Shanghai gold main contract was 13.10 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 2,981 yuan/kg [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of March 12, 2026, the inventories of gold and silver in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. COMEX gold inventory was 32,656,406.59 ounces, a 1.34% decrease; COMEX silver inventory was 345,310,443 ounces, a 2.80% decrease; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105,033 kg, almost unchanged; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 255,952 kg, a 16.5% decrease [32]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: As of March 12, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver price) was 60.61, down from 61.22 in the same period last week [36]. 3.3. Industry Supply - Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import quantities of silver and silver ore sand increased significantly. The import quantity of Chinese silver was 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import quantity of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase. Due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate stabilized. In December 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,810,000 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 12.9% [40][44]. - **Gold Supply - Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and emerging - market central banks continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, and the total demand amount was 55.5 billion US dollars. The investment demand for gold reached 2,175 tons, and the net position of gold ETFs increased by 801 tons for the whole year [48]. - **Silver Supply - Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a small increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly. It is predicted that the global total silver supply will increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the total demand will decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap will narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [51]. 3.4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to be strong. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price decreased. Emerging - market central banks maintained their gold - buying stance, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [52][56][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices showed mixed performance this week, with the Shenzhen market generally outperforming the Shanghai market. Among the four stock - index futures, only IF showed a slight increase. The market was significantly affected by overseas geopolitical news. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices, causing global equity assets to face significant correction pressure under the re - inflation expectation, and A - shares were also notably affected. Meanwhile, the release of domestic inflation and import - export data this week showed a significant rebound in prices and external demand, and the positive macro - fundamentals provided some support to the market. Market trading activity declined slightly compared to last week. After the conclusion of the Two Sessions, the policy benefits brought by the national Two Sessions to the market have been gradually realized, and the market will shift to the fact - verification stage. Although external shocks have a short - term impact on the domestic market, after the negative impact of rising oil prices is digested, A - shares are still expected to continue the slow - bull market [7][95] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated. IF2603 rose 0.26%, IH2603 fell 1.10%, IC2603 fell 1.31%, and IM2603 fell 0.30%. Among the spot indices, the CSI 300 rose 0.19%, the SSE 50 fell 1.20%, the CSI 500 fell 1.44%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.42% [9] 3.2 News Overview - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year and 1% month - on - month, while PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year and rose 0.4% month - on - month. From January to February 2026, China's total import - export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Iran's Supreme Leader issued a statement, indicating that Iran will not give up revenge and will take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [13] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.76%, the STAR 50 Index fell 2.88%, the SME 100 Index rose 0.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.51% [16] - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 1.00%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.20%, the Nikkei 225 fell 3.24%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.13% [17] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors declined. The national defense and military industry sector weakened significantly, while the coal and power equipment sectors led the gains. Industry main - force funds generally showed a net outflow. The electronics and machinery equipment sectors had a large net outflow of funds, and the basic chemical industry sector had the highest net inflow [21][25] - **SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates showed a differentiated performance, and the capital market was slightly looser [29] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.221 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted - share unlocking was 55.839 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 1.257577 trillion yuan. The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts fluctuated [32][40][44] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to shift to the fact - verification stage after the policy benefits of the Two Sessions are realized. Although external shocks have a short - term impact on the domestic market, after the negative impact of rising oil prices is digested, A - shares are still expected to continue the slow - bull market [95]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market's fundamentals may be in a stage where supply is increasing and demand is stable, with the seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry showing a decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions with a light position at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 0.73%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 100,310 yuan/ton [6] - **Inflation Data**: In the US, the seasonally adjusted CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. In China, the CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [6] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates reached a new low again, and the expectation of tight mines still supported copper prices. The operating rate of smelters gradually recovered, and copper production might increase significantly month - on - month. Upstream holders held firm on prices. Although the copper price on the disk adjusted, the spot copper still maintained a relatively strong premium. Downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices as the copper price adjusted, and consumption generally remained stable. Domestic copper inventory was still in the seasonal accumulation stage, but the accumulation slowed down due to the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season [6] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contract**: As of March 13, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 205 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 290 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 100,310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 740 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 190,853 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 4,829 lots [13] - **Spot Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 890 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the main contract was - 450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [16] - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 83,483 lots, a decrease of 10,597 lots from last week [23] - **Options Market**: As of March 13, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options contract of the Shanghai copper main contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options positions was 0.73, a week - on - week decrease of 0.007 [29] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quote in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 90,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 240 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 2,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [32] - **Imports and Price Difference**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.05% and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 4,448.18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 710 yuan/ton [37] - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of November 2025, the global monthly production value of copper concentrates was 1,923 thousand tons, a decrease of 11 thousand tons from October, a decline of 0.57%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% from October. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons [42] Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.28% and a year - on - year growth rate of 6.76%. As of December 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 70 thousand tons from November, a growth rate of 2.96%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [44] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6,677.56 tons from November, a decline of 2.19% and a year - on - year decline of 27%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 401.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 297.42 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory increased by 28,025 tons week - on - week, the total COMEX inventory decreased by 5,695 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 577,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 tons [57] Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.33% and a year - on - year decline of 21.43% [63] - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 5.11% and - 4.65% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs decreased by 4.4%, 9.6%, increased by 5.7%, 7%, and decreased by 1.2% year - on - year respectively [67] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 48,427,948.1 ten - thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [74] Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of December 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 98,000 tons [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7] - The methanol market in ports fluctuated widely at a high level this week, and the price of inland methanol increased significantly. The market was mainly driven by geopolitical sentiment, and the futures sentiment gradually spread to the spot market. With positive factors such as continuous inventory reduction by enterprises, local olefin external procurement demand, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the price showed a sharp jump [8] - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the output of recovered production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. This week, inland enterprises and ports both reduced inventory. With the support of downstream demand along the Yangtze River, the pick - up was good, but the arrival of imported ships was less. With a significant reduction in supply, the domestic methanol inventory started the de - stocking channel. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to decline next week [8] - The start - up of the MTO industry decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei. It is expected that the short - term industry start - up will remain stable [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Wait and see due to geopolitical uncertainties [7] - Market review: Port methanol prices fluctuated widely at high levels, and inland prices rose significantly. The market was driven by geopolitical sentiment, and futures sentiment spread to the spot market. Positive factors supported the price increase [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased, inventory decreased, and it is expected that port inventory may continue to decline next week. The MTO industry start - up is expected to remain stable [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou methanol futures rose by 8.47% this week [11] - Inter - period spread: As of March 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 133 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Warehouse receipt: As of March 12, there were 10333 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 937 compared to last week [24] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of March 12, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2810 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 597.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of March 12, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 336 US dollars/ton, an increase of 27 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 159 US dollars/ton, an increase of 68 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of March 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was + 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of March 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, the same as last week [43] - Natural gas price: As of March 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [43] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and start - up rate: As of March 12, China's methanol production was 2013855 tons, a decrease of 3610 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.18% month - on - month. Next week, the planned recovered production capacity is more than the maintenance and production - reduction capacity, which may lead to an increase in capacity utilization rate and production [46] - Inventory: As of March 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 52.31 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.30%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 26.53 tons, a decrease of 2.98 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.10%. The total port inventory was 131.28 tons, a decrease of 13.07 tons compared to the previous data. Both East and South China regions reduced inventory. The port inventory decreased significantly due to a large reduction in supply [51] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of March 12, the methanol import profit was - 2.24 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Start - up rate: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 82.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The start - up of the MTO industry decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei [59] - Profit: As of March 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 612 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton compared to last week [62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [6][112]. - In China, most crop harvests are over; some areas may face wet - damage affecting spring sowing and rapeseed flowering, and snow in some regions is unfavorable for facility agriculture [6]. - In international markets, US soybeans are not sown yet; Brazil is in the soybean - harvesting period, and Argentina is in the soybean - growing period. European rapeseed is in the growing period. Rainfall in key European rapeseed regions is mostly below normal, and high temperatures are unfavorable for soil moisture. Rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is normal, having less impact on palm fruit picking [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Weather - ENSO prediction shows high probabilities of La Nina in the coming months. Domestically, various weather conditions affect crop production and facility agriculture. Internationally, different crop - growing regions in the US, Brazil, Argentina, Europe, Indonesia, and Malaysia have their own weather situations influencing crop growth and harvest [6]. 3.2. Weather in Each Crop - Producing Area 3.2.1. Soybeans - **Domestic**: Northeast and Huanghuaihai regions have not started sowing. Northeast accounts for over 60% of total production, and Huanghuaihai accounts for over 15% [10][15]. - **US**: Concentrated in the central states, new - season sowing usually starts in mid - April. The 2025/26 yield is 11575000 tons, lower than the previous year. Future 6 - 10 days will see lower - than - normal temperatures and higher - than - normal rainfall. Drought has increased by 1 percentage point compared to last week [24][29][33]. - **Brazil**: Concentrated in the Midwest. As of March 7, the 2025/26 harvest progress is 50.6%, higher than the five - year average but behind last year. The USDA estimates the 2025/26 yield at 18000000 tons. Future 15 days will have below - normal rainfall in the south and above - normal in the central and northern regions, with normal temperatures [37][44]. - **Argentina**: Concentrated in the central region, accounting for about 12% of the world's production. As of early February, it has entered the growing period. The USDA predicts the 2025/26 yield at 4850000 tons, a 5.11% year - on - year decrease. Future 15 days will see above - normal rainfall and normal temperatures [48][49][53]. 3.2.2. Rapeseed - **Domestic**: Spring rapeseed in the Northwest and North China has been harvested, accounting for about 10% of the total. Winter rapeseed in the Yangtze River中下游 and Southwest regions is in the flowering period, accounting for about 50% and over 35% respectively. Some areas may face wet - damage due to heavy rain, while the temperature is suitable [58][59][66]. - **Canada**: The world's largest producer, accounting for about 22%. Harvest is over. The 2025 sowing area is expected to decline by 1.7% compared to 2024. Future 15 days will have below - normal rainfall and above - normal temperatures, unfavorable for soil moisture [76][81]. - **EU**: The second - largest producer, accounting for about 20%. Rapeseed is in the growing period. The 2025/26 yield is expected to increase by 2200000 tons compared to 2024/25. Future 15 days will have most key regions with below - normal rainfall (except France), and above - normal temperatures, unfavorable for soil moisture [85][86][92]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Indonesia's main producing areas are Sumatra and Kalimantan. Malaysia's are concentrated in five states, with Sabah and Sarawak accounting for over 45% of the total. Rainfall is normal, having less impact on palm fruit picking [96][99][106]. 3.2.4. Corn - In Northeast, Huanghuaihai, and Southwest regions, the harvest is over. Northeast accounts for over 40%, Huanghuaihai over 30%, and Southwest about 10% of the total production [116][117][123]. 3.2.5. Cotton - Xinjiang accounts for about 90% of the total production, and Huanghuaihai accounts for about 6%. The harvest is over, and the temperature is suitable [132][133][141]. 3.2.6. Apple - The Bohai Bay and Northwest Loess Plateau regions, accounting for about 33% and 60% of the total respectively, are in the budding period, and both precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [146][147][156]. 3.2.7. Red Dates - Xinjiang, the Loess Plateau, and Huanghuaihai regions, accounting for about 50%, over 20%, and over 20% respectively, have completed the harvest [161]. 3.2.8. Sugarcane - Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong, accounting for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total respectively, are in the sowing period, and both precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [173][178][182]. 3.2.9. Sugar Beet - Xinjiang and North China, accounting for about 39% and 57% of the total respectively, have completed the harvest, and both precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [187][192][196]. 3.2.10. Peanut - Northeast has completed the harvest, accounting for about 10% of the total. Huanghuaihai has completed the spring and summer peanut harvests, accounting for over 60%. South China is in the spring peanut sowing period and has completed the autumn peanut harvest, accounting for over 10%. Precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable in relevant periods [201][202][208]. 3.2.11. Wheat - Northwest, mainly growing spring wheat, is in the over - wintering to standing - up period, accounting for over 10% of the total. Huanghuaihai, mainly growing winter wheat, is in the turning - green to standing - up period, accounting for over 80%. Precipitation is suitable in both regions, but snow and rain in the Northwest are unfavorable for crops [217][222][227]. 3.2.12. Rice - Northeast, growing single - season japonica rice, has completed the harvest, accounting for about 20% of the total. The Yangtze River中下游, with both single - and double - season rice, has the early - rice sowing period and completed the single - and late - rice harvests, accounting for over 40%. Southwest has completed the single - season rice harvest, accounting for about 14%. South China, growing double - season indica rice, has the early - rice sowing period and completed the late - rice harvest, accounting for about 12.5%. Precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [232][236][239].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a stage of sufficient supply and fair demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a weak and fluctuating trend on the weekly line, with a decline of 2.61%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 152,080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In February, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [7]. - **Raw Material Side**: Lithium ore prices fluctuated with the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate prices. Mines still had a strong sentiment of holding prices, and smelters were also quite active in purchasing and inquiring [7]. - **Supply Side**: Smelters' production resumption was basically completed, and the operating rate rebounded. Upstream and traders still had the sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, and there were some operations of releasing goods at high prices. The export from Chile decreased in February, and it was expected that the domestic import volume might slightly converge after the arrival of the shipping schedule, but the overall supply of domestic lithium carbonate remained sufficient [7]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand was cautious, mostly adopting the strategy of purchasing at low prices. The trading volume in the spot market was a bit light, and the overall industrial inventory decreased slightly. The demand had resilience, but its sustainability needed further observation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 152,080 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,080 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was 4,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Spot Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 6,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,830 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 2,505 US dollars/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.8752, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [23]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 14,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 113 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4. Industry Conditions - **Supply Side**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons from November, a growth rate of 8.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons from November, a growth rate of 20.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from December, a growth rate of 4.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 69.29%. The operating rate in that month was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 111,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,600 tons, a decrease of 13,550 tons from December, a decline of 5.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 50.76% [36]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 650 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 267,980 tons, an increase of 22,900 tons from January, a growth rate of 9.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 67.91%. The operating rate in that month was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [40]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 5,970 tons from January, a decline of 10.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The operating rate in that month was 45%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type remained stable [45]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,470 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from January, a decline of 2.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.61%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 yuan/ton [50]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 13,120 tons, a decrease of 2,510 tons from January, a decline of 16.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 108.59% [53]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of February 2026, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.18% of the cumulative sales of all vehicles (penetration rate), a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.87%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 694,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%; the sales volume was 765,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 583,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 106.74% [57][60]. 3.5. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.55, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a short straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. The price of the May contract of US cotton also rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.65%, and the price of the 2605 contract of cotton yarn futures increased by 1.70%. The current market is in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April". It is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term [7][13][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78% [7] - **Market Outlook**: According to the USDA report, in the week ending March 5, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 370,100 bales, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average level of the previous four weeks. On the domestic market, on the supply side, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory of Brazilian cotton in the warehouse remained at a high level. As of March 12, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports was 571,500 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous month. On the consumption side, in the first two months, China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly. From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year-on-year increase; among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a 20.5% year-on-year increase; clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a 14.8% year-on-year increase. At the same time, the demand in the textile industry in March is slowly starting, and textile enterprises continue to resume production. It is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: This week, the price of the May contract of US cotton increased, with a weekly increase of about 2.65%. As of March 3, 2026, the non-commercial long positions of US cotton were 112,260 lots, an increase of 8,836 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 140,357 lots, an increase of 7,963 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,097 lots, a decrease of 873 lots from the previous week [13] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending March 5, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.75 cents per pound, a 1.25-cent increase from the previous week [17] - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. The 2605 contract of cotton yarn futures increased by 1.70%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -217,834 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -1,323 lots. As of this week, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,506, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 320 [24][30][37] - **Spot Market**: As of March 13, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,877 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,000 yuan per ton, the CY index: OEC10s (rotor yarn) was 15,450 yuan per ton; the CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,000 yuan per ton [44][55] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 12, the sliding duty price of imported cotton was reported at 13,774 yuan per ton, a 141-yuan increase from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was reported at 12,664 yuan per ton, a 219-yuan increase from the previous week. As of March 12, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: C21S was 20,583 yuan per ton; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: C32S was 21,967 yuan per ton; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: JC32S was 23,630 yuan per ton [61] - **Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit**: As of March 12, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding duty was 2,894 yuan per ton, a 44-yuan decrease from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,381 yuan per ton, a 122-yuan decrease from the previous week [65] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a 23.51% month-on-month increase and a 1.75% year-on-year increase; at the end of December, the in-warehouse industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [68] - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a 60,000-ton increase from the previous month and a 31% year-on-year increase; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% year-on-year decrease. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a 60,000-ton increase from the previous month and a 20,000-ton increase from the same period last year [72] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were reported at 21.71 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were reported at 33.13 days, a 1.87% month-on-month decrease [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Clothing Export Volume**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year-on-year increase; among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a 20.5% year-on-year increase; clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a 14.8% year-on-year increase [80] - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail Sales Cumulative Volume**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 166.1 billion yuan, a 7.75% month-on-month increase [84] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was presented in the report, but no specific data was given [85] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The report presented the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis was given [88]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures generally rose slightly, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] - Wande A-Share Index fell 0.53% on Thursday, with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [2] - Transactional investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened mostly lower, rose in the morning session, fluctuated horizontally after the pullback, and had a wave of rally near the end of the session. As of the close, the 30-year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.12%, the 10-year T2606 rose 0.04%, the 5-year TF2606 rose 0.02%, and the 2-year TS2606 rose 0.02% [1] - Wande A-Share Index opened slightly lower on Thursday, continued to decline in the morning session, rebounded in the afternoon, and closed with a small doji阴线, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 24.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 23 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the interbank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.33%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.37%; the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.46% [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of interbank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2-year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year decreased by 1.02 BP to 1.55%, the 10-year decreased by 0.23 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year decreased by 0.99 BP to 2.34% [1] - The central bank held a symposium of economic and financial experts, stating that in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase the intensity of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] - Iran's new supreme leader's first statement: Will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts will be opened if necessary. Trump said that when oil prices rise, we make a lot of money; it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If coordinated with the Iranian navy, many ships can still pass through the strait [1] Market Logic - In US dollar terms, China's exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year from January to February, better than the estimated 7.3%, and the year-on-year increase in December last year was 6.6% [1] - China's CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year in February, exceeding the market expectation of 0.9%; the PPI decreased 0.9% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of a 1.2% year-on-year decrease. The overall inflation level in China rebounded more than expected in February. The core CPI rose 0.7% month-on-month in February, and the PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said in an interview that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [1]