1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth and export value increasing, while others such as manufacturing PMI and fixed - asset investment decreasing [1]. - Different sectors in the commodity market have their own developments, including changes in supply and demand in the energy and agricultural sectors, and regulatory actions in the coal and steel sectors [2][7][8]. - The financial market has various phenomena, such as changes in central bank operations, fluctuations in bond yields, and movements in exchange rates [10][19][25]. - Stock markets in China and Hong Kong perform well, with the A - share market rising and market capitalization increasing, and the Hong Kong stock market also showing significant gains [30][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 (at constant prices) increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than the same period last year's 50.2% [1]. - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, the export value increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the import value increased by 4.1% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan [2]. - The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for equipment renewal supported by the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been fully allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - The copper inventory on the US exchange has increased for 100 consecutive days, the longest consecutive increase since 1992 [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted trading rules for coking coal futures, including limiting daily opening positions and adjusting the intraday speculative trading fee rate for certain contracts [3][6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.3 million barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day [7]. - CPC's oil exports in July increased by 3% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons [7]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July were 1.31 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase, and production was 1,812,417 tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase [8]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 13, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases that matured on the same day, there was a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [10]. 3.3.2 Key News - From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. Different sectors had different loan growth patterns [11]. - The central bank and other four departments explained two discount interest policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce imposed counter - measures on two EU financial institutions in response to the EU's sanctions on Chinese financial institutions [15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Bond market sentiment improved slightly, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declining, and bond futures closing higher. The central bank's net withdrawal did not significantly affect market liquidity [19]. - Some bonds had price changes, and there were also events such as early redemption and debt defaults [17]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1755 on August 13, up 156 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that the European equity market has strong performance due to internal policy changes, but lacks key elements to create its own "exceptionalism" [26]. - Dongwu Fixed - Income suggests that there is still room for spread compression in some underlying bonds of the science - innovation bond index that are not included in the ETF [26]. - CITIC Securities expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, each time by 25 bps, as US inflation in July was in line with expectations [26]. 3.4 Stock Market - On August 13, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight - day consecutive increase, and the market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.58% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 3.52% [31]. - As of August 13, the total market capitalization of A - shares reached 98.48 trillion yuan, a 14.7% increase from the end of last year [31].

Group 1: Domestic Financial Indicators - The social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with M2 balance growing by 8.8% year-on-year as of the end of July [2] - The People's Bank of China reported that the M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, reflecting a stable monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy [2] - The central bank is guiding financial institutions to increase credit support for the service consumption sector through loan interest subsidy policies [2] Group 2: Government Bonds and Debt Market - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of 188 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support equipment renewal investments across various sectors, impacting over 8,400 projects and driving total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3] - The bond market showed a warming trend, with the yield on 10-year government bonds decreasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.7200% as of 20:00 on August 13 [8][9] - The bond auction results indicated a lack of demand for Japanese government bonds, with the 5-year bond auction showing the lowest demand since 2020, leading to a rise in yields [4] Group 3: Commodity Market Movements - International crude oil futures prices continued to decline, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling to $62.65 and $65.63 per barrel, respectively [5] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.24% to $3,407.10 per ounce, while NYMEX natural gas prices rose by 1.33% to $2.819 per million British thermal units [5] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market saw a collective rise, with major indices increasing by 0.68% to 0.69% on August 13, alongside a trading volume surpassing 100 billion yuan [19] - A total of 456 convertible bonds were traded, with 348 experiencing price increases, including a notable 20% rise in Duyuan Convertible Bond [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.9%. New social financing scale reached 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 389.2 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing rose from 8.9% to 9%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 increased from 8.3% to 8.8%, and the growth rate of the new - caliber M1 increased from 4.6% to 5.6%. Overall, July's credit performance was lower than market expectations, with bills being the main support. Among social financing sub - items, government bonds increased by 555.9 billion yuan year - on - year, supporting the social financing growth rate to remain high. In terms of deposits, under the low - base effect, the M1 growth rate continued to rise, and M2 was mainly driven by non - bank deposits [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Credit: Both the household and corporate sectors performed mediocrely - **Household Sector**: In July, both short - term and medium - to - long - term loans were relatively weak, with a combined decrease of 489.3 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 382.7 billion yuan, 167.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year, possibly due to the overdraft effect of the June shopping festival. Medium - to - long - term credit decreased by 110 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was - 18.6%, and the decline was larger than last month. The trading of second - hand houses was relatively weak, and medium - to - long - term household loans showed negative growth again since April [2][10]. - **Corporate Sector**: In July, corporate medium - to - long - term loans decreased by 260 billion yuan, 390 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The growth rate of the loan balance dropped slightly to 6.9%. Existing policy tools had limited driving effects on corporate loans, and subsequent policy - based financial tools might support corporate medium - to - long - term loans. Corporate short - term loans decreased by 550 billion yuan, basically the same as last year. Bill financing increased by 871.1 billion yuan, 312.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. With the weak loan issuance, the demand for bills to "fill the gap" increased significantly [2][15][16]. 3.2 Social Financing: Government bonds still provided support, and the willingness to issue corporate bonds continued - **Government Bonds**: In July, the issuance scale of government bonds was large, with a new increase of 1.24 trillion yuan, 555.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year. According to the current issuance plan, government bonds would still support social financing in July, but from August to the end of the year, they might see a year - on - year decrease. If no additional bonds were issued at the end of the year, the peak of the annual social financing growth rate might appear in July [3][17]. - **Corporate Bonds**: In July, the willingness to issue corporate bonds was still strong, with a new increase of 27.91 billion yuan, 7.55 billion yuan more than the same period last year. With relatively low bond yields, the willingness to issue bonds increased seasonally, which might also "siphon" corporate loans. Un - discounted bills decreased by 16.39 billion yuan, close to the same period last year, and off - balance - sheet bills continued to be transferred to on - balance - sheet [3][21]. 3.3 Deposits: The growth rates of M1 and M2 continued to rise - **M1**: In July, the new - caliber M1 decreased by 2.9 trillion yuan, 832.4 billion yuan more than the same period in 2024, which was at a relatively high seasonal level. The wealth effect of the equity market supported the activation of funds to some extent, and the year - on - year reading of M1 increased significantly from 4.6% to 5.6%. - **M2**: Among the sub - items of M2, non - bank deposits were the main support. Driven by the recovery of the equity market, non - bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in July, 1.39 trillion yuan more than the same period in 2024. After the cross - quarter in July, corporate deposits showed an outflow state, decreasing by 1.46 trillion yuan, but due to the low - base effect of the general deposit outflow after manual interest compensation in 2024, the decrease was 320.9 billion yuan less year - on - year [3][23][30].

Group 1: Financial Growth and Monetary Policy - The growth rate of total financial volume remains high, with social financing scale stock increasing by 9% year-on-year as of the end of July [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The structure of credit has improved, with inclusive small and micro loans reaching 35.05 trillion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans in manufacturing at 14.79 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Government Bonds and Direct Financing - The cumulative net financing of government bonds in the first seven months increased by 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, serving as a major support for social financing scale growth [2] - Direct financing, primarily through government and corporate bonds, is growing faster than credit financing, reflecting the development of the direct financing market [2] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on July 30 emphasized accelerating government bond issuance, which is expected to further boost social financing growth in the third quarter [2] Group 3: Loan Dynamics and Seasonal Trends - July typically sees a seasonal decline in loan issuance, influenced by financial institutions adjusting credit issuance and the need for businesses to settle accounts [3] - The ongoing policy of replacing hidden debts is impacting loan growth, with estimates suggesting that this factor reduces loan growth by over 1 percentage point [3] - Recent efforts to eliminate "involution" competition may lead to a decrease in credit demand from small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 4: Interest Rates and Financing Costs - Interest rates remain low, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 45 and 30 basis points respectively [3][4] - The low interest rates indicate a relatively abundant supply of credit, making it easier and cheaper for borrowers to obtain bank loans [4] - Initiatives to promote transparency in the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises are underway, which may lead to clearer financing costs in the future [4]

Group 1: Loan Data - In July, new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion, a year-on-year reduction of 310 billion, lower than the Wind average expectation[12] - From January to July, RMB loans decreased by 660 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to last year[12] - The structure of loans deteriorated, with household loans down by 492.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 287.1 billion[13] Group 2: Deposit Data - In July, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 trillion[16] - Household deposits decreased by 780 billion year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 320.9 billion[16] - From January to July, RMB deposits increased by 7.78 trillion year-on-year, with corporate deposits contributing 45.5%[16] Group 3: Social Financing (社融) - In July, new social financing reached 1.2 trillion, with a growth rate of 9%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Government bonds contributed significantly, with net financing of approximately 812.4 billion for local bonds, a year-on-year increase[19] - The overall social financing growth is expected to decline, with government bond growth peaking and then decreasing[18] Group 4: Market Insights - The equity market has exerted emotional pressure on the bond market, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect[3] - The current financial data supports a bullish outlook on the bond market, with a 1.7% yield on ten-year bonds seen as an entry point[5] - The weakening demand for financing in the real economy suggests limited upward pressure on interest rates in the near future[5]

星展银行：日本二季度经济增长温和，出口与消费仍显疲软 瑞士宝盛：需求放缓抑制美国通胀压力，为美联储降息提供空间 德意志银行：欧元计价信用利差压缩至年内最窄区间 贝莱德：市场加大押注美联储9月降息50基点 【机构分析】 星展银行分析指出，经过季节性调整后，日本第二季度的年化增长率预计仅温和上升0.2%，这一增长 幅度大致能够弥补第一季度经济收缩带来的影响。对于日本经济现状，由于对美出口下降和全球需求疲 软，第二季度出口增长势头减弱。同时，国内私人消费依旧低迷，主要原因是工资增长速度未能跟上通 胀步伐。日本央行短期内不太可能采取加息措施。尽管与美国的贸易协议有助于缓解关税不确定性，但 央行期待更强劲的工资增长和稳定的通胀水平以实现政策正常化。 野村证券策略师指出，美国7月CPI数据公布后，市场情绪明显缓和，乐观情绪有效传导至日本股市， 推动日经225指数进一步走高。美联储降息预期的升温是本轮上涨的重要驱动。 瑞士宝盛经济学家指出，美国通胀压力正受到需求放缓的有效抑制。尽管在服装、电子产品等领域已观 察到关税对价格的推动作用，但作为通胀最大构成部分的住房成本在6月份仅温和上涨，使得整体通胀 动能保持稳定。考虑到8月 ...

2025.08. 13 本文字数：2664，阅读时长大约4分钟 8月12日公布的《方案》明确了这项创新政策的细节。《方案》提出，2025年9月1日至2026年8月31 日期间，居民使用指定机构发放的个人消费贷款（不含信用卡），实际用于消费且可追溯交易信息的部 分可享贴息。支持范围涵盖单笔5万元以下消费，以及5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训 等七大重点领域消费，其中大额消费按5万元上限贴息，政策到期后可视效果调整。 贴息标准与资金来源同步明确：年贴息比例为1个百分点（按实际消费贷款本金计算），最高不超过合 同利率的50%，由中央财政承担90%、省级财政承担10%。为防范过度负债，每名借款人在一家机构 累计贴息上限3000元（对应消费30万元），其中5万元以下消费累计贴息上限1000元（对应消费10万 元）。 经办机构阵容也浮出水面，包括6家国有大行、12家全国性股份制银行及5家消费金融机构，合计23 家。 招联首席研究员董希淼分析，这些机构消费贷款规模大、管理规范，利于政策短期内快速落地见效。 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 个人消费贷贴息政策细则明确。 8月12日，财政部会同中国人民银行、金融监管总局等部 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】8月12日，财政部联合央行等多部委下发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》与《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》。 此外，广发证券还表示，个人贷款贴息政策、服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策分别从需求、供给两端作用于消费，有助于稳定和进一步扩大消费弹性，同时有 助于拓宽政策支持实体经济的边界与空间，比如贴息政策可以在不降低银行资产收益率保持银行息差的情况下定向支持特定领域。 针对此次方案推出，广发证券分析认为，上述两个文件是《提振消费专项行动方案》 及 7 月 31 日国常会 精神的落实。按照专项行动方案，后续消费领域仍 存在的政策空间包括：提高最低工资标准，北京、上海等地已落地，但仍有部分省市待调整；健全服务消费、消费新业态新模式统计监测，完善全口径消费 统计制度；扩大消费基础设施、消费服务功能提升类、消费新业态新模式的有效投资等。 具体到本次个人消费贷款贴息政策，广发证券认为，由于消费贷款贴息政策有较多限制条件，很难准确估算受益的消费贷款规模，愿意加杠杆消费且对利率 敏感的消费者比例亦难准确估算，但有部分数据可供参考： 首先，今年 3 月末多家银行已将消费贷利率上调至不低于 3% ，以 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of technology innovation bonds (科创债) in China has seen explosive growth, exceeding 800 billion yuan within three months, driven by strong participation from financial institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Macro Demand - The issuance of 科创债 reflects the macro demand for national technology innovation strategies, as China is undergoing a critical economic structural transformation, focusing on upgrading traditional industries and promoting emerging sectors like artificial intelligence and biomedicine [3]. - The government aims to guide financial resources into key technology areas to enhance independent innovation capabilities and strengthen national technological power and competitiveness [3]. Group 2: Financing Needs of Tech Enterprises - Technology companies face urgent financing needs due to long R&D cycles and high uncertainty, often lacking the collateral required for traditional bank loans [4]. - 科创债 provides a new financing channel through medium to long-term direct financing, meeting the funding requirements for technology development and project investment [4]. Group 3: Financial Institutions' Business Expansion - Financial institutions are actively participating in the issuance of 科创债 to capture market share and accumulate service experience, particularly small and medium-sized banks [5][6]. - Policy support has optimized the issuance process, reducing costs and barriers for small banks, allowing them to better serve local technology innovation needs [6]. Group 4: Investor Asset Allocation Needs - In a declining interest rate environment, investors are increasingly seeking diversified asset allocation, with 科创债 attracting attention due to its credit premium and policy support [7]. - The bonds offer competitive interest rates compared to similar short-term assets, and innovative terms set by exchanges enhance their investment value and exit mechanisms [7].

1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 8 月 12 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1146 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1146 亿元，中标量 1146 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 1607 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净回笼 461 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间资金市场整体依旧稳定偏宽，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率（ D R001 ）微幅上行，仍在 1.31% 附近徘徊。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.35% （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.64% 位置，较上日上行 1 个 bp 。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 30 年期主力合约跌 0.31% 10 年期主力合约跌 0.04% 5 年期主力 ...