2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: "Preferred Gold Stock Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages the superior performance of newly introduced gold stocks and incorporates the "Surprise Earnings Factor" (SUE factor) to select stocks with outstanding earnings surprises [26] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use newly introduced gold stocks as the sample pool 2. Select the top 30 stocks with the highest earnings surprises based on the SUE factor 3. Weight the portfolio based on the number of recommendations from brokers **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates better performance compared to the overall gold stock portfolio, with higher annualized returns and lower maximum drawdowns [26][28] Model Backtesting Results - **Preferred Gold Stock Portfolio**: - May Return: -1.1% - 2025 YTD Return: 6.5% - Annualized Return: 19.7% - Annualized Volatility: 25.4% - Return-to-Volatility Ratio: 0.78 - Maximum Drawdown: 24.6% [28][29] - **Overall Gold Stock Portfolio**: - May Return: 0.9% - 2025 YTD Return: 5.9% - Annualized Return: 11.0% - Annualized Volatility: 23.5% - Return-to-Volatility Ratio: 0.47 - Maximum Drawdown: 42.6% [24][28] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Surprise Earnings Factor (SUE Factor) **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor identifies stocks with earnings significantly exceeding market expectations, which are likely to outperform [26] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the earnings surprise for each stock as the difference between actual earnings and consensus estimates 2. Rank stocks based on the magnitude of earnings surprises 3. Select the top-performing stocks with the highest earnings surprises [26] **Factor Evaluation**: The SUE factor shows strong stock selection capabilities, particularly within newly introduced gold stocks [26] Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: Integrated into the "Preferred Gold Stock Portfolio," contributing to its superior performance metrics compared to other portfolios [26][28]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.14% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 470.90 billion shares and a turnover of 564.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.56% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Beauty Care: Increased by 3.21% with a transaction amount of 60.32 billion yuan, up 14.82% from the previous day, led by Beitaini with a rise of 12.83% [1] - Comprehensive: Increased by 1.90% with a transaction amount of 13.55 billion yuan, up 3.98%, led by Zhangzhou Development with a rise of 4.98% [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Increased by 1.68% with a transaction amount of 203.46 billion yuan, up 42.48%, led by Western Gold with a rise of 10.03% [1] - The worst-performing industries included: - Household Appliances: Decreased by 1.57% with a transaction amount of 86.91 billion yuan, up 13.63%, led by Gree Electric with a decline of 3.02% [2] - Steel: Decreased by 1.55% with a transaction amount of 28.09 billion yuan, up 41.91%, led by Benxi Steel with a decline of 7.23% [2] - Coal: Decreased by 1.17% with a transaction amount of 30.97 billion yuan, up 49.83%, led by China Coal Energy with a decline of 3.27% [2] Stock Performance - A total of 3,065 stocks rose, with 55 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,094 stocks fell, with 5 hitting the daily limit down [1]

Group 1: Dividend Performance Analysis - Historically, the China Securities Dividend Index significantly underperformed in June and October since 2010, with excess return rates against the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market around 33%[16] - In June 2015 and 2018, dividends showed excess returns relative to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market, benefiting from high volatility environments[8] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Total Return Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index, with monthly winning rates of 30% in January and October, which are the lowest for the year[27] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Industry Performance - The months of March to May and August to December are favorable periods for the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index to outperform the CSI 300 and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index[28] - Most industries, except for consumer sectors like automobiles and home appliances, showed no excess returns in June and October since 2010, with utilities performing relatively better in June[22] - The banking and transportation sectors, along with high-weight industries like construction materials and real estate, experienced significant drawdowns in June[22] Group 3: Reasons for Seasonal Effects - The low winning rates for dividends in June and October are linked to the completion of annual and semi-annual reports, leading to a rise in market risk appetite post-reporting periods[30] - The phenomenon of "抢权行情" (right grabbing market) occurs around the ex-dividend dates, where stock prices may decline post-ex-dividend due to preemptive buying behavior[31] - The market's risk appetite tends to recover after the financial reporting periods, which negatively impacts the overall performance of dividend stocks[40]

Group 1 - Economic indicators continue to weaken, and the allocation style remains growth-oriented. The quantitative indicators suggest that the economy is declining, liquidity is neutral to loose, and credit indicators are improving. The micro mapping shows that economic (profit expectations) continues to be weak, while credit is improving. The revised direction indicates economic downturn, tight liquidity, and improved credit, consistent with the previous period. Due to the significant divergence between liquidity and credit, the focus is on factors that are insensitive to the economy but sensitive to credit, maintaining a growth-oriented stock pool allocation style [4][7][9] - The macro asset allocation viewpoint suggests increasing bond positions. Given the current indicators, with the economy declining, liquidity tightening, and credit remaining favorable, the outlook for equities is slightly bearish, leading to a minor reduction in A-share positions. The trend for bonds has improved, with an increase in government bond positions and a reduction in US stock positions to zero [4][31] - The economic leading indicators are entering a declining phase. The updated economic leading indicator model indicates that June 2025 is at the beginning of a decline cycle, which is expected to continue [13][15] Group 2 - Liquidity is showing signs of recovery. In May, interest rates remained stable, with short-term rates slightly exceeding the 12-month average, while long-term rates are still significantly distant from the average. The monetary supply data has rebounded, signaling a return to a neutral stance, although the excess reserve ratio remains low, indicating that overall liquidity has returned to a slightly loose state [24][28][26] - Credit indicators are weak across various dimensions. In the second half of 2024, credit indicators are expected to remain low, with the total social financing stock showing a year-on-year increase for five consecutive months, maintaining a high level of comprehensive credit indicators [29] - The market focus remains on liquidity. Since 2023, credit and inflation have garnered significant attention, but recently liquidity has become the most scrutinized variable, particularly following the market rally at the end of September, indicating that the current market is heavily driven by liquidity [33] Group 3 - In terms of industry selection from a macro perspective, the report indicates a preference for industries that are insensitive to economic fluctuations but sensitive to credit conditions. The analysis suggests that these industries possess growth attributes, leading to a higher overall growth characteristic in the selected industries [34] - The report identifies the top industries based on their sensitivity to economic and credit conditions. The industries with the highest scores for being economically insensitive and credit-sensitive include electronics, media, and personal care, among others [34]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant interest from global investors in high-quality A-share companies that have listed in Hong Kong, such as Ningde Times and Midea Group, with Ningde Times raising a total of HKD 41 billion and seeing a premium over its A-share price [2][12][36] - The performance of A-share companies that have recently listed in Hong Kong has been strong, with an average year-to-date increase of 4.6% compared to the overall A-share market's 0.7% [3][36] - The report indicates that the recent trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong has positively impacted the A-share market, leading to increased valuations and investor interest in core assets [3][36] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural changes in the Hong Kong IPO market, noting a 92.8% increase in fundraising compared to 2023, with 70 IPOs in 2024 and 27 in 2025 so far [12][18] - It emphasizes the growing importance of Hong Kong as a platform for mainland companies to raise capital, with 41 A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong in 2025 [20][36] - The report outlines the performance of specific companies post-listing, such as Midea Group and Ningde Times, which have shown strong price movements and have influenced their respective sectors positively [28][34]

General Principles - The company establishes a fair decision-making system for related transactions to ensure compliance with laws and regulations, protecting the interests of the company and all shareholders [1][2][3] - Related transactions are defined as transactions between the company, its subsidiaries, and related parties, adhering to the definitions set by relevant stock exchange rules [2][3] Basic Principles of Related Transactions - Related transactions must follow principles of equality, voluntariness, equivalence, and fairness, ensuring they align with the overall interests of the company and shareholders [2][4] - Shareholders and directors with a related interest must abstain from voting on related transaction matters [2][4] Scope of Related Parties and Transactions - Related parties include individuals and entities defined by stock exchange rules, such as major shareholders and directors [3][5] - The company must disclose related transactions that meet specific thresholds, including asset purchases and financial assistance [6][7] Management of Related Transactions - Departments must report details of proposed related transactions to the securities department for preliminary review [11][12] - The company must comply with stock exchange rules regarding the approval process for related transactions, including necessary disclosures [14][15] Decision-Making Procedures - Related transactions exceeding certain financial thresholds require approval from the board of directors or shareholders [16][17] - Independent directors must provide opinions on the fairness and reasonableness of related transactions [19][20] Information Disclosure - The company must disclose related transactions promptly after board or shareholder approval, adhering to stock exchange requirements [24][25] - Continuous related transactions must be disclosed in annual and semi-annual reports, including their execution status [18][19] Exemptions and Special Cases - Certain transactions may be exempt from disclosure and approval requirements if they meet specific criteria, such as low financial thresholds or being part of regular business operations [28][29] - The company must ensure that any financial services agreements with related parties are disclosed, including terms and conditions [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion letter from Beijing Zhonglun Law Firm confirms that Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd. has complied with relevant laws and regulations in convening its shareholder meetings for 2024 and 2025, including the annual general meeting and special meetings for A, D, and H shares [1][3][9]. Group 1: Meeting Summons - The company has issued notifications for the 2024 annual general meeting and the 2025 first A, D, and H share meetings, ensuring compliance with the Company Law and Securities Law [4][6]. - The notifications were published on various platforms, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange and German information disclosure platforms, to ensure transparency [4][6]. Group 2: Meeting Procedures - The meetings will be conducted using a combination of on-site, non-site, and online voting methods, with specific times allocated for each voting method [5][15]. - The first D and H share meetings are scheduled to take place on May 28, 2025, at the Haier Co-Creation Ecological Park in Qingdao [5][15]. Group 3: Attendance and Voting Results - For the 2024 annual general meeting, a total of 2,088 shareholders participated, representing 64.05% of the voting shares [10]. - The voting results showed overwhelming support for the proposals, with A shares receiving 99.9258% approval, D shares 99.9352%, and H shares 98.8970% [16][18]. - For the 2025 first A share meeting, 2,049 shareholders participated, representing 63.94% of the voting shares, with similar high approval rates for the proposals [11][19].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Consumer Trends - The core theme for 2025 is to boost consumption, with a focus on domestic demand and internal circulation as unique advantages of the economy [1] - The "Domestic Circulation Work Promotion Meeting" emphasized the need to tap into potential consumption, upgrade bulk consumption, and stimulate service consumption [1] - April's consumer data showed a positive trend, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, slightly accelerating from the first quarter [2] Group 2: Retail Performance and E-commerce Growth - Retail sales of household appliances and related categories saw significant growth in April, with categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 38.8% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 5.8% in the first four months, continuing to outpace overall retail sales growth [4] Group 3: Promotional Events and Policy Support - The "618" shopping festival began a week early on May 13, 2025, combining with the "old-for-new" policy to invigorate the consumer market [5] - The subsidy range for the "old-for-new" policy expanded from 8 to 12 categories of home appliances, with subsidy rates increased to 15%-20% [5] - Sales of home appliances increased by 4.7% online and 12.8% offline following the implementation of the policy [5] Group 4: International Consumption and Tax Policies - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is expected to stimulate inbound consumption, with the threshold for refunds lowered from 500 yuan to 200 yuan [7][8] - The number of inbound tourists is projected to reach 130 million in 2024, with cultural and tourism consumption becoming a new growth point [8] - A dual-driven consumption model combining goods and services is emerging, providing broader value opportunities for the consumer sector [9]

Market Overview - On May 26, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.05%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.57%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.17%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.65%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.8%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 1.35% [4][3] - The best-performing sectors on May 26 were Media (+2.14%), Computer (+1.39%), Environmental Protection (+1.22%), Communication (+1.1%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (+1.04%). The worst-performing sectors were Automotive (-1.78%), Pharmaceutical Biology (-1.08%), Comprehensive (-0.86%), Banking (-0.75%), and Home Appliances (-0.71%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 26 was 1,033.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.507 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Key Insights - From the production side, high-frequency indicators for the service and industrial sectors remained generally stable compared to the previous week. On the demand side, there was a divergence in variables, with consumption strengthening, fixed asset investment showing mixed strength, and exports showing signs of recovery [5] - Price-wise, marginal pressure on prices was observed this week, with a systemic rebound dependent on a demand-side recovery. Following the China-US trade talks, the fundamental pressure has eased [5]