行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 4 月 29 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

Core Insights - In 2024, the company faces significant challenges with a substantial decline in both operating revenue and net profit, with net profit decreasing by 83.89% year-on-year and non-recurring net profit dropping by 92.14% [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company's operating revenue for 2024 is 15,455,386,401 yuan, a decrease of 15.06% from 18,194,864,366 yuan in 2023. The glass industry revenue is 13,755,566,623 yuan (89% of total revenue), down 6.33%, while electronic glass and display revenue is 1,407,968,511 yuan (9.11% of total revenue), down 10.47%. Solar and other industries revenue is 592,199,240 yuan (3.83% of total revenue), down 73.66% [2] - The net profit for 2024 is 266,772,318 yuan, compared to 1,655,614,446 yuan in 2023, marking an 83.89% decline. Non-recurring net profit is 120,793,126 yuan, down 92.14% from 1,535,858,783 yuan in 2023. The decline is attributed to market changes leading to price drops, rising costs, and asset impairments [3] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 is 0.09 yuan, down 83.33% from 0.54 yuan in 2023, indicating a significant reduction in shareholder returns [4] Expense Analysis - Sales expenses decreased slightly to 289,402,862 yuan in 2024 from 308,908,806 yuan in 2023, a decline of 6.31%, suggesting adjustments in market promotion strategies [5] - Management expenses fell from 865,371,137 yuan in 2023 to 791,021,833 yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.59%, indicating potential for improved internal management efficiency [6] - Financial expenses increased to 183,964,983 yuan in 2024 from 158,826,105 yuan in 2023, a rise of 15.83%, highlighting increased debt servicing pressure [7] - R&D expenses decreased from 739,301,765 yuan in 2023 to 611,497,261 yuan in 2024, a decline of 17.29%, which may impact future innovation capabilities [8] Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 36.34% to 1,756,923,649 yuan in 2024 from 2,759,788,894 yuan in 2023, indicating weakened cash generation ability [12] - Net cash flow from investing activities improved to -2,283,592,545 yuan in 2024 from -4,253,234,650 yuan in 2023, a reduction of 46.31%, suggesting better cash management in investments [13] - Net cash flow from financing activities turned positive at 834,412,074 yuan in 2024 compared to -56,073,109 yuan in 2023, indicating improved funding sources [14] R&D and Innovation - The number of R&D personnel decreased to 1,744 in 2024 from 1,879 in 2023, a reduction of 7.18%, which may affect the company's innovation capacity [10] - R&D investment in 2024 is 611,497,261 yuan, accounting for 3.96% of operating revenue, down from 4.15% in 2023, potentially impacting future product competitiveness [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to focus on stability, with technology and domestic demand as the main themes [1] - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.22% this week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [4] - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in home decoration demand in Q3 2025, driven by policies promoting consumption [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has experienced a price fluctuation, with the national average price of high-standard cement at 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton from last week but up 35.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [4][22] - Cement market demand has slightly weakened due to seasonal rainfall, with a national average cement shipment rate of 47.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from last week [30] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.5% this week, with price adjustments mainly in East, Central, and Southwest regions [21] - The report highlights that the cement industry is expected to maintain profitability, with leading companies showing a strong willingness to protect margins [5][12] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The profitability of the glass fiber industry remains at a low point, but demand in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to grow, leading to a gradual recovery in supply-demand balance [13] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests monitoring others like Zhongcai Technology and Shandong Glass Fiber [13] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance in supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion and limited price rebound potential [15] - The report recommends Qibin Group and suggests monitoring Nanbo A for potential growth [15] 3. Home Decoration Materials - The report indicates that government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance home decoration consumption, with a year-on-year sales growth of 8.7% in early 2025 [16] - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home, focusing on those with strong growth intentions and competitive advantages [16]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 以稳为主，科技加内需仍是主线 2025 年 04 月 28 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -23% -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 2024/4/29 2024/8/27 2024/12/25 2025/4/24 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《期待 25 年 Q3 家装迎来明显加速》 2025-04-20 《继续看好内需消费地产链》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.4.21–2025.4.25，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 0.22%，同期沪深 300、万得 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 建材板块 Q1 持仓环比略升，关注雅下水电站、高端 电子布等机会 行情回顾 过去五个交易日（0421-0425）沪深 300 涨 0.38%，建材（中信）涨 0.05%， 所有板块中其他专用材料板块涨幅最大为+3.21%，陶瓷板块则跌幅最大为 -4.31%。个股中，北京利尔（+11.5%），中旗新材（+11.3%），方大集团（+10.8%）， 豪美新材（+9.5%），海南发展（+7.9%），涨幅居前。上周我们重点推荐组合 的表现：华新水泥（-4.0%）、 三棵树(-1.6%)、濮耐股份（+6.8%）、中材科 技（+8.7%）、华润建材科技（+0.0%）、西部水泥(+6.8%)。 建材板块 Q1 持仓环比略升，关注雅下水电站、高端电子布等机会 据 Wind，0419-0425 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 154.15 万平米， 同比-19.48%。中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势 和经济工作。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期 特别国 ...

作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产小幅走弱，建筑业开工边际改善，货运量有所回升。 【工业生产】工业生产小幅走弱。 本周，高炉开工小幅回落，同比-0.2pct至4.7%。化工链中PTA和涤纶 长丝开工均有下行，同比分别-0.2、-1.2pct至5%、3.6%。汽车半钢胎开工连续两周回落，同比-2.8pct 至-2.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工边际改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率边际改善，同比分别+1.1pct 至0.8%、+0.8pct至-2%。沥青开工率同比也有上行，较前周+2.3pct至-1.2%。 【下游需求】全国新房成交降幅较大，货物运输强度有所回升。 本周，全国新房成交同比-24.2pct 至-22%；其中一线、二线、三线城市成交均有走弱。物流表现有所好转，公路货车通行量同比+3.2pct至 2.6%；与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量同比分别+8.7pct至5.1%、+9.2pct至10.3%。人流强 度也有回升，迁徙指数同比+6pct至-5.2%。 【物价】农产品、工业品价格均有分化。 本 ...

贸易形势变化超预期，地缘政治风险，非系统风险导致局部领域压力被放大。 报告正文 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产小幅走弱，建筑业开工边际改善，货运量有所回升。 【工业生产】工业生产小幅走弱。 本周，高炉开工小幅回落，同比-0.2pct至4.7%。化工链中PTA和涤纶 长丝开工均有下行，同比分别-0.2、-1.2pct至5%、3.6%。汽车半钢胎开工连续两周回落，同比-2.8pct 至-2.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工边际改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率边际改善，同比分别+1.1pct 至0.8%、+0.8pct至-2%。沥青开工率同比也有上行，较前周+2.3pct至-1.2%。 【下游需求】全国新房成交降幅较大，货物运输强度有所回升。 本周，全国新房成交同比-24.2pct 至-22%；其中一线、二线、三线城市成交均有走弱。物流表现有所好转，公路货车通行量同比+3.2pct至 2.6%；与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量同比分别+8.7pct至5.1%、+9.2pct至10.3%。人流强 度也有回升 ...

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that due to the slow recovery of downstream real estate and deep - processing demand, insufficient restocking strength and sustainability, the market is pessimistic about the long - term demand for glass. Under the expectation of oversupply, there is limited upward space for glass. Considering the price expectation suppression by the near - end delivery game, it is expected that glass will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] Group 3 Summary of key points from the content - On April 18, 2025, the glass futures price continued to decline. The main contract 2509 closed at 1122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.43%, with a trading volume of 2.0403 million lots and active trading on the disk [3] - In terms of supply, glass production was flat month - on - month, the profit of glass enterprises improved slightly, and the enterprise start - up rate and capacity utilization rate rebounded [3] - In terms of demand, the orders of downstream glass deep - processing sample enterprises improved month - on - month but declined significantly year - on - year. The market speculation willingness was weak, and traders and end - users were cautious, resulting in a continuous weakening of production and sales and obvious price - for - volume situations [3] - In terms of inventory, according to Longzhong Information, the inventory of glass enterprises decreased slightly week - on - week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down significantly. Meanwhile, the high inventory in the middle reaches continued to suppress the rebound height [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in real estate data from the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasizing the importance of stable real estate policy expectations [5][21]. - Cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass inventory remains stable month-on-month [7][24]. - There is a focus on infrastructure and existing stock chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, with investment opportunities in Africa being highlighted [9]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - In March, the year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales was 2.1% in terms of value and 3.0% in terms of area, with a smaller decline of 1.6% in value and 0.9% in area for March alone [5][6]. - The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively in March, with first-tier cities showing slight increases [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 24.4% year-on-year decline in new construction area, which narrowed to an 18.1% decline in March [6]. Cement Market - The national cement market price decreased, with a current average of 397.74 yuan/ton, down 3.55 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 35.65 yuan/ton year-on-year [25]. - The cement output rate in key regions was 48.5%, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of about 2.0% [7][24]. - Cement production in the first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with a 2.5% increase in March [6]. Glass Market - The average price of glass was 74.99 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.28 yuan [45]. - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces was 5,624 million weight boxes, showing a slight increase from the previous week [44][45]. - The production capacity of float glass increased slightly, with 286 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 158,505 tons [44]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Liansu in the infrastructure chain, highlighting the potential for improved net profit due to lower coal costs [9]. - In the existing stock demand, companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials are favored for their growth potential and low valuations [9]. - The report also points to investment opportunities in Africa, particularly in Keda Manufacturing, which has shown strong performance in overseas markets [9].