Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,873 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,889 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.54%; the spot basis in East China EG was 11 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 1,027 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons, unchanged month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 70.8 tons, up 7.5 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 9.5 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 1.4 tons. As of November 27, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 70.8 tons, an increase of 3.95 tons from Monday [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has declined from a high level, and some short - flow oil chemical plants are under great production pressure. Overseas, there are limited changes in overseas ethylene glycol plants. The port inventory is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there are still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory provides some support, but orders are marginally weakening [2] - The production pressure of new capacity is large. As the port inventory rises, the liquidity of goods in the market increases. However, the price of ethylene glycol has dropped to a nearly two - year low, and the negative feedback of high - cost plants has gradually emerged, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure [3] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,873 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,889 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.54%; the spot basis in East China EG was 11 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 1,027 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The inventory of polyester is at a low level, and the load provides some support, but orders are marginally weakening [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons, unchanged month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 70.8 tons, up 7.5 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 9.5 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 1.4 tons. As of November 27, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 70.8 tons, an increase of 3.95 tons from Monday [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core View - The EG contract closed at 3896 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 3910 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.20%. The EG spot basis in East China was 18 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit for ethylene - based EG was -60 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton, and for coal - based syngas EG was -1025 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (CCF data, unchanged) and 63.3 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports this week are 9.5 tons, and at the secondary ports are 1.4 tons, indicating a slightly lower - than - normal level overall [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and some short - flow oil chemical plants face production pressure. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, with a stable short - term port inventory, but there are plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December. On the demand side, the low - inventory polyester load provides some support, but orders are weakening marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract price and the East China spot price changed, and the basis decreased [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas EG have changed, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level [1][2]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis was provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The low - inventory polyester load provides support, but orders are marginally weaker [2]. Inventory Data - Different inventory data from CCF and Longzhong are presented, and the planned arrivals are analyzed, with an expectation of stable and slightly decreasing inventory [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, as the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries has passed and the gasoline shortage may have eased, the rhythmic arrival pressure of pure benzene is high, which suppresses its processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with phenol operations rising but aniline and adipic acid operations falling, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [2]. - For styrene, overseas, South Korean companies plan to merge and close a cracking unit, and attention should be paid to whether the styrene unit will stop. Domestically, port inventories have risen again, and styrene is in a low - operation maintenance stage with postponed restart plans. The focus now is on downstream operations, which are still at a low level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 143 yuan/ton (- 32), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 110 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 52 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [1]. - Suggested strategy: EB2512 - EB2601 for inter - period positive arbitrage at low prices [3]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 99 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 85 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 159 yuan/ton (+ 64 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1]. - Suggested strategy: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories and Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 16.40 tons (+ 1.70 tons). Styrene's East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+ 15,900 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+ 6,900 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1]. - Pure benzene downstream: Caprolactam operating rate is 88.23% (+ 2.18%), phenol operating rate is 79.00% (+ 12.00%), aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.49%), adipic acid operating rate is 55.50% (- 6.50%) [1]. - Styrene operating rate is 69.0% (- 0.3%) [1]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 31 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 69 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 553 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS operating rate is 56.27% (+ 4.64%), PS operating rate is 55.90% (+ 0.50%), ABS operating rate is 72.40% (+ 0.60%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 820 yuan/ton (+ 30), phenol - ketone production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is 499 yuan/ton (+ 3), adipic acid production profit is - 1263 yuan/ton (- 18) [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: TA maintains a high - maintenance state, downstream shows no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so TA's inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the cost - end PX has a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long in the positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. - **MEG**: With supply reduction and high - opening of polyester, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the valuation compression space may be limited. Short - term selling of put options can be considered, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. - **Polyester Short Fiber**: In the short term, the inventory pressure is limited, but in the long term, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device launches are approaching, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a non - high level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price Changes**: Naphtha price changes from 62.5 to 63.4, PX CFR Taiwan from 558 to 573, PTA inner - market spot from 824 to 833, etc. The PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device restarts. Some proximal TA devices are under maintenance, the start - up rate decreases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve [3]. MEG - **Price Changes**: Northeast Asia ethylene price remains at 730, MEG outer - market price from 452 to 463, etc. The MEG spot basis is around +13 for 01 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device restarts; Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Proximal domestic oil - making increases load, coal - making has some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up decreases, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates [6]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price Changes**: 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price changes from 6340 to 6385, etc. The spot price is around 6315, and the market basis is around - 100 for 01 [6]. - **Device and Market Situation**: The device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory is basically flat. The downstream demand is stable, but in the long term, the pattern may weaken [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber changes from 1815 to 1825, and the weekly change is - 25. There are also various price spreads and processing profit changes [9]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains at 730, pure benzene (CFR China) from 660 to 685, etc. There are also changes in domestic profits of styrene and its downstream products [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated mention of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, weak coal prices, supply - demand changes in the spot market, the impact of downstream PP on PL, and the rebound of external propane prices leading to continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls in the industrial end driving up spot prices, while negative factors are the lack of significant negative feedback in PDH despite losses and the weak downstream demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1232 and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 0.5581 [1]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices (PL2603, sell, 50%, entry range 6100 - 6200) and sell call options (PL2601C6000, sell, 25%, entry range 60 - 80) [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices (PL2603, buy, 25%, entry range 5700 - 5800) and sell put options (PL2601P5700, sell, 25%, entry range 50 - 70) [1]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly mentioned, but there is no actual progress, and coal prices are relatively weak recently [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. This week, supply decreased and demand increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and raising the overall spot price. In Shandong, after device overhauls and some downstream restarts, the spot price rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - The main downstream product PP has sufficient supply. Recently, the compression of the PP - PL price has led to new lows in the PP end, suppressing the space for PL and causing a divergence between PL's futures and spot prices [2]. - The external propane price has rebounded, with the calculated cost at around 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the calculated PDH profit is continuously in the red. Currently, there is no more feedback on overhauls [2]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors: Device overhauls in the industrial end, such as those of Binhua, Haiwei, and Xintai, have led to a rebound in the spot price from the low level [3]. - Negative factors: Although PDH is in a loss state, there is still no significant negative feedback in the short term, and the supply end remains high; the PP downstream is weak, showing the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with high supply pressure and continuous new lows in the market, and most other downstream products are also in a loss state, with low acceptance of high - priced propylene [3][5]. 3.4 Industrial Data Summary - Upstream raw material prices: Brent crude oil closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel on November 25, 2025, down 0.83 dollars from the previous day and 2.46 dollars from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as WTI, MOPJ, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - Mid - stream propylene prices: On November 25, 2025, the propylene price in East China was 5945 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 30 yuan from the previous week; the price in Shandong was 6020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan from the previous day and 130 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Downstream prices: On November 25, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week; the price of polypropylene pellets was 6400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Profits: The main refinery profit was 854.72 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 240.83 yuan/ton. Different production methods and products had different profit situations [6]. - Price spreads: Various price spreads such as PL01 - 02, PP01 - PL01, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weaker and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [3]. - For crude oil, if the geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - For other products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., they are mostly in a state of volatile trends, with specific outlooks varying according to their respective supply - demand and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - **Market News**: The number of active oil rigs in the US decreased significantly. US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week of November 21, 2025. Trump loosened the deadline for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the Ukrainian side denied agreeing to the US peace plan [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue continuously disturbs the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The increase in net imports led to an increase in crude oil inventory. The overall supply - surplus situation still exerts pressure on inventory accumulation [8][9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: It oscillates around the key level of 3000 [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The Venezuelan raw material supply may be disrupted. The futures pricing returns to the Shandong spot, and the spot price in Shandong has stabilized, supporting the futures price. However, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - **Main Logic**: It follows the decline of refined oil products. Although it is supported by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, the overall demand is facing headwinds such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The production suspension progresses rapidly, and the futures price rises again [3]. - **Main Logic**: The Chinese methanol port inventory decreased. The Iranian device shutdown progressed rapidly. The domestic market was affected by multiple positive factors such as improved market sentiment, reduced port arbitrage, increased olefin external procurement demand, and tightened supply [31]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: The inventory significantly decreased, and the bullish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Main Logic**: Although the supply is at a high level and the demand is weak, the inventory decreased significantly, which promoted the futures price to rise slightly [32]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The price center is mainly adjusted in a wide range. Pay attention to the dynamics of oil - based devices [3]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, there is no further positive support on the supply - demand side. Some domestic coal - based devices are about to restart, but the downstream polyester demand still provides support [24][25]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost performance is average, and the efficiency is maintained under a good supply - demand pattern [3]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating weakly, and the cost support for PX is general. The downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and the peak season, and the polyester segment provides support for PX [16]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired [3]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally stable, and PX prices are relatively firm. The supply - demand of PTA has improved, and the downstream polyester load remains high. There is a possibility of phased inventory reduction in November - December [16][17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it passively follows the upstream [3]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester cost fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The short - fiber price follows the cost and oscillates [27][28]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is in a stalemate [3]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has a certain support for the polyester bottle - chip price, but the trading atmosphere has declined after the price increase, and the processing fee fluctuates in a narrow range [29]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL oscillates [3]. - **Main Logic**: The supply restart is delayed, the overall supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream follow - up is active [37]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance [3]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating and falling. The fundamental support for PP is limited, the production release pressure is large, and the inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level. The focus is on the changes in maintenance [36]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices decline, the maintenance support is limited, and it oscillates weakly [3]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The fundamental support for plastics is limited, the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [34][35]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending for oil fades, and it returns to oscillation [3]. - **Main Logic**: The driving force of blending for oil is questionable, and after the premium is squeezed out, the downward space is limited. The supply - demand contradiction in December - January is not significant [22]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventory suppresses, and PVC may anchor production reduction [3]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level policies in December may affect market expectations. At the micro - level, the high inventory of PVC is difficult to reduce, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production reduction [38]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: It operates in a weak supply - demand and low - valuation state with oscillation [3]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, pay attention to the influence of the Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest - rate decision in December. At the micro - level, the supply - demand of caustic soda is expected to be poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can promote upstream production reduction [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PP, etc. are provided, showing their latest values and changes [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including their latest values and changes [42]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content other than the product names (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is provided for detailed analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases, while the PPI commodity index decreased slightly [285]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index showed a decline, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day decline of 2.23%, a 1 - month decline of 4.55%, and a year - to - date decline of 9.17% [286].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mixed on November 26, with chemical products leading the gains, particularly methanol which rose by 1.82% [1] - All non-metallic building materials increased, with glass up by 1.27% [1] - Most energy products saw an increase, with LPG rising by 0.52% [1] Group 2 - The black series experienced the largest declines, with coke falling by 0.96% [1] - Most oilseeds and oils decreased, with rapeseed oil down by 0.46% [1] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with corn dropping by 0.40% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to decline. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure. Overseas ethylene glycol plant changes were limited, and the port inventory was expected to remain stable in the short term, but there were still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure [2]. International Price Difference - No specific international price difference data was provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.15%. Positive progress in US-Ukraine peace talks led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driver of oil prices remains. The near-term risk is whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The US retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.2%, lower than expected and the previous value. PPI was basically in line with expectations. There is strong uncertainty in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fluctuated greatly. The US ADP employment report showed a weak labor market. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is expected to rise above 80%. US copper exchange inventories have reached a record high. Codelco's premium for long-term refined copper contracts to East Asia is high. Pay attention to the increase in positions of Shanghai copper and the performance of the MA40 moving average after taking profits on previous long positions [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. After the price correction, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices. Demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The macro sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and the industrial contradictions are limited. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and adjusting after breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, with support around 21,100 yuan [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. Industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels, and cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. Alumina - Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The supply surplus pattern is hard to change. Before large-scale production cuts occur, alumina will mainly operate weakly [7]. Zinc - Overseas funds have a strong control over the market. LME zinc warehouse receipts increased slightly to 48,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is as high as $120.77/ton. The domestic zinc mine supply is tightening, and the TC of domestic and overseas mines has been lowered. The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong, but the domestic demand outlook is under pressure. In the short term, there is no clear directional signal, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - LME lead inventories are at a high level of 265,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month discount is $35.57/ton. The domestic fundamentals are neutral, and the trading sentiment of funds is weak. Track the dynamics of smelters and wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel cost support continues to decline. Although Shanghai nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the short - term contradiction lies in the macro level. Short on rebounds [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated at high levels. The short - term upward exploration sentiment of domestic and international tin prices remains. Short at high levels, holding short positions near 298,000 yuan [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The market total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 118,000 tons. The futures price oscillates violently at high levels, and risk control should be the priority [12]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rates of Xinjiang and Southwest production areas remained flat. The demand reduction plan of the silicone industry has a relatively limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern. In the short term, industrial silicon futures will continue to oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - The spot price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remains in the narrow range of 49,600 - 54,900 yuan/ton. The short - term futures price is affected by both the "anti - involution" sentiment and its own fundamentals and will continue to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - trading steel prices fell. The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to suffer losses. The supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm recently, and the futures price has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the weak demand restricts the upside space [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore overnight futures oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is in a seasonal decline trend. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday price oscillated. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price may oscillate weakly [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday price oscillated weakly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price may oscillate weakly [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and chemical coke prices. The silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downwards [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and blue carbon prices. The overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of silicon iron remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The possibility of resuming navigation in the Red Sea is increasing. Once new ships resume navigation, the far - month contracts will be under great pressure due to the significant surplus of shipping capacity. If the cargo volume continues to recover, there may be a price increase again in late December or early January [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in international oil prices dragged down fuel oil prices overnight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline, but it will still be supported by supply fluctuations in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to weaken [22]. Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish for asphalt [23]. Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea in the "Four Provinces" is stable with a slight decline, while the price in the Northeast continues to rise. The supply is abundant. The domestic oversupply pattern is expected to continue, and the price may return to a stalemate after the decline [24]. Methanol - The methanol futures price adjusted narrowly. The bullish expectation of overseas plant production cuts is gradually being realized, and the methanol valuation is low. However, the reality is still weak, and attention should be paid to the reduction intensity and duration of supply and market sentiment changes [25]. Pure Benzene - The domestic night - trading external crude oil price plummeted, and pure benzene operated weakly. The domestic arrival expectation is high, and the downstream demand is decreasing. Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [26]. Styrene - The output of styrene factories is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand remains good. The supply - demand balance is tight, and the total inventory continues to decline, which supports the styrene price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The propylene market lacks news guidance. The supply pressure of polyethylene increases. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly. The demand side is affected by the weak raw material prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC oscillated. The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to cost - end changes. Caustic soda oscillated. The supply is under high pressure, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Caustic soda operates weakly [29]. PX and PTA - The short - term supply - demand of PX weakens, but it is expected to be strong in the medium term. PTA's processing margin is low, and the inventory accumulation expectation eases. Before the Spring Festival, it follows the cost - driven logic [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but the inventory will accumulate around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip demand fades, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity. It is mainly cost - driven [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The glass intraday price oscillated. The profit is narrowing, and the cold - repair speed is accelerating. The demand is insufficient. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the Thai raw material market price decreased. The demand continues to weaken, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the inventory is increasing. RU is relatively strong, NR and BR are under observation, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. Soda Ash - The soda ash intraday price was weak. The industry continues to destock. The short - term focus is on the upstream cost fluctuations, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean production may be affected by the La Nina phenomenon. Wait for the end of the callback and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil continues to decline weakly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening. The short - term palm oil supply - demand is weaker, and it is in the process of finding the bottom [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - With the arrival of Australian rapeseed in China, the market focuses on customs clearance, pressing yield, and policy details. The domestic rapeseed sector is recommended to be observed in the short term [38]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans fluctuate repeatedly. The policy side is still conducting auctions. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight. US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [39]. Corn - The night - trading corn futures increased in positions and prices. The market is divided on the new - season corn output. The downstream corn inventory is very low. Pay attention to the replenishment situation after the price increase this week. Wait for the opportunity to short on highs [40]. Pig - The number of fertile sows decreased in October 2025. The spot pig price continues to decline weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [41]. Egg - The number of newly - opened laying hens will start to decline continuously from around December. The supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to gradually ease in the medium - term. In the short term, it will still focus on the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [42]. Cotton - US cotton rose slightly. The domestic cotton spot sales basis is stable. The new - cotton cost supports the price but also limits the upside. The cotton commercial inventory is not high, and the sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn market trading is weak. Temporarily observe [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market supply is relatively abundant, and US sugar faces upward pressure. In China, the market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is relatively good [44]. Apple - The futures price oscillates at a high level. The spot price is strong. The short - term price trend is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [45]. Wood - The futures price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe [46]. Pulp - The pulp futures price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory has increased continuously, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. Temporarily observe [46]. Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares rose strongly yesterday, and all major futures index contracts rose. The macro - liquidity suppression has temporarily eased, and risk assets have a corrective rebound. The market currently focuses on the interaction between geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [47]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the market trading became冷清. Policy games and institutional behaviors are still key variables. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the range. Operate with caution [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, recent supply reduction is greater than expected, polyester load is firm, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand. The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. - For MEG, the arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester factories made bids. Individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. This week, the negotiation and transaction were around 01 with a discount of 40 - 45, and the price negotiation range was around 4605 - 4655. There were transactions around 01 - 35 to 40 in mid - and late - December. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 43 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4635, the basis of the 01 contract is - 21, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [6]. - **Main positions**: The net long position is decreasing, showing a positive tendency [5]. - **Expectation**: The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the MEG price fluctuated within a wide range, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot negotiation and transaction were around a premium of 28 - 31 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the MEG futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot basis weakened significantly. Today, the low - end spot basis was traded at a premium of 14 - 15 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, in the morning, the external MEG price was high, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 464 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the external price weakened slightly, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 461 US dollars/ton. In addition, there was an appropriate amount of Taiwan tender cargo traded around 467, with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3918, the basis of the 01 contract is 45, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared with the previous period, which is a negative factor [8]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [8]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a negative tendency [7]. - **Expectation**: The arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus - No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9.000 to 584.500 US dollars/ton. The spot price of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) decreased by 17.000 to 824 US dollars/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 4630 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic MEG decreased by 10.000 to 3900 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester POY decreased by 75.000 to 6550 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D decreased by 50.000 to 6800 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY decreased by 25.000 to 7850 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber increased by 5.000 to 6295 yuan/ton [13]. - In the futures market, TA01 decreased by 24.000 to 4656 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 18.000 to 4706 yuan/ton, TA09 decreased by 18.000 to 4668 yuan/ton. EG01 decreased by 11.000 to 3873 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 1.000 to 3961 yuan/ton, EG09 decreased by 12.000 to 4034 yuan/ton [13]. Profit - PTA processing fee decreased by 375.843 to 63.64 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha - based MEG decreased by 436.380 to - 1576.24 yuan/ton. The profit of externally - purchased ethylene - based MEG decreased by 310.478 to - 1302.75 yuan/ton. The profit of methanol - based MEG increased by 46.580 to - 1131.28 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based MEG decreased by 16.500 to - 894.00 yuan/ton [13]. - The profit of POY decreased by 89.580 to 74.55 yuan/ton, the profit of FDY decreased by 64.580 to - 25.45 yuan/ton, the profit of DTY increased by 50.000 to 100.00 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple fiber decreased by 9.580 to - 180.46 yuan/ton [13]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the data of MEG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12].