7月3日，美国劳工部发布的非农就业数据超出预期，令市场对美联储7月降息的预期下降。 美国劳工统计局周四报告称，经季节性调整后，6月新增人数为14.7万人，高于预期的11万人，略高于5月份上调后的14.4万人。4月份的统计数据也出现了 小幅上调，上调1.1万人至15.8万人。 细分来看，由于州和地方招聘的稳步增长，尤其是与教育相关的工作，政府就业人数大幅增加，以7.3万人领先所有类别。与此同时，联邦政府仍在感受 到埃隆.马斯克(Elon Musk)的政府效率部(Department of Government Efficiency)削减开支的影响，就业人数下降7000人。此外，医疗保健行业延续良好的就 业势头，增加了3.9万人，社会援助类工作贡献了1.9万人。 同时公布的失业率降至4.1%，为2月以来的最低水平，而预期将小幅上升至4.3%。劳动力参与率降至62.3%，为2022年末以来的最低水平，原因是劳动力 人口减少，未纳入劳动力统计的人数增加了32.9万人。 相比周三发布的有"小非农"之称的ADP就业数据，劳工部发布的非农就业数据对美联储货币政策的影响更大。 周四的数据发布后，美联储7月降息的概率下降。根据 ...

美国六月新增14.7万岗位远超预期，历史数据大幅上修 在昨日意外录得负3.3万人的"爆冷"表现后，市场普遍对今日的非农就业报告做好了最坏打算，甚至有传言称新增岗位可能跌破10万，至9.6万人，远低 于10.6万人的市场共识，引发了对"滞胀型衰退"的担忧。然而，事实再次证明ADP可能只是"虚晃一枪"。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，上个月非农就业人数增加14.7万人，不仅大幅超出10.6万人的市场预期中值，也高于向上修正后的五月数据（14.4万 人）。其中，州和地方政府就业的显著增长，私人部门就业仅增加7.4万人，创下去年十月以来的最低增幅，这主要归因于医疗保健行业的招聘放缓。 在媒体调查的79位经济学家中，只有加拿大丰业银行的Derek Holt一人预测到了更高的数字（16万人），其余所有预测值均低于14.7万人。 美国6月非农就业人口增加 14.7万人，预期 10.6万人，4月和5月非农就业人数合计上修1.6万人。 美国劳动力市场展现出强劲韧性。六月份美国就业增长连续第四个月超出预期，失业率进一步下降。这可能促使美联储在决定下一步利率行动时采取更 为谨慎的态度。 更值得关注的是，与此前"拜登传统"的下修不同 ...

新华财经北京7月3日电美国6月非农就业数据显示，尽管新增就业岗位超出预期，达到14.7万人，并显 示出失业率意外降至4.1%，表明劳动力市场仍具韧性。数据公布后，美元指数短线拉升约40点。 分项数据显示，美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，预期10.6万人，4月和5月非农就业人数合计上修 1.6万人。失业率4.1%，预期4.3%，前值4.2%。 图为：2023年6月—2025年6月季调后的美国失业率，来源：BLS 图为：经季节性调整的非农就业人数月度变化，来源：BLS 值得关注的是，过去几个月的就业数据也得到了向上修正。其中，四月非农就业人数上修1.1万人，从 14.7万人增至15.8万人；五月数据也上修0.5万人，从13.9万人增至14.4万人。这些修正进一步印证了美 国劳动力市场的潜在韧性。 就业增长超预期，但增速放缓 尽管6月新增就业人数高于市场预期，且5月数据被上修至14.4万，但整体来看，就业增长呈现出放缓趋 势。这可能反映出企业在招聘方面趋于谨慎，尤其是在疫情后的经济环境中，企业对未来的不确定性导 致其在扩张用工方面保持保守态度。这种"囤积劳动力"的现象说明雇主更倾向于维持现有员工而非大规 模扩 ...

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]

证券研究报告 受理开闸启升势，量升价稳保增厚 ——25H1新股市场回顾暨25H2展望 证券分析师：彭文玉 A0230517080001 朱敏 A0230524050004 任奕璇 A0230525050002 联系人: 任奕璇 A0230525050002 2025.07.03 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 发行节奏环比放缓，6月新受理破百，未盈利企业加速入场。25H1，A股发行新股48只（环比-5只），大多属于制造 业企业，首发募资额380亿元（环比+5.5%）；A股新增受理150个IPO项目，其中6月份A股集中受理123家。科创板 深改"1+6"政策发布后，未盈利企业上市通道正式打开，创业板首单未盈利IPO大普微于6月27日获得受理。截止 2025/6/30，A股存量IPO项目共298个，合计拟募资2814亿元。其中，沪深市场排队项目136个，拟募资2206亿元， 双创在审未盈利企业11家，其中2家过会；北交所1家未盈利企业在排。 ◼ 超募情形增多，首日涨幅收窄。 25H1，沪深新股首发PE仍处于低位，平均仅20倍，相对可比公司折价扩大至41%； 4-6月，首发超募情形逐渐增多，单 ...

美国劳工统计局今日报告称，6月份非农就业人数增加了147000人，失业率几乎持平，为4.1%。州政府 和医疗保健行业出现了就业增长，而联邦政府则继续裁员。 因经济原因而从事兼职工作的人员在6月份人数为450万人，变化不大。这些人本希望获得全职工作，但 因工时减少或无法找到全职岗位而只能做兼职。 6月份不在劳动力市场但当前有就业意愿的人数为600万人，基本与上月持平。由于这部分人员在调查前 4周未积极寻找工作或无法上岗，因此未被计入失业人口。 在不在劳动力市场但有就业意愿的人群中，边缘性劳动力（在调查前12个月曾找过工作、调查前4周内 未找过工作，但期望且有条件就业）6月份增加了234000人，达到180万人。被归为"失望劳动者"的边缘 性劳动力子集（认为无法找到工作的人）在6月份增加了256 000人，达到637 000人。 本新闻稿公布了两项月度调查的统计数据。家庭调查按人口特征衡量劳动力状况，包括失业情况；机构 调查则按行业衡量非农就业人数、工作时长和收入。有关这两项调查所使用的概念和统计方法的详细信 息，请参阅技术说明。 家庭调查数据 6月份失业率为4.1%，失业人数为700万人，两项数据与上月变化不大 ...

以下文章来源于金十数据 ，作者金十数据 金十数据 . 金十数据官方服务号。汇聚金融投资行业的各类数据和资讯，数据资讯快、准、全。 来源 | 金十财经 北京时间周四晚8点30分，美国劳工统计局将公布6月非农就业报告， 经济学家预计6月份非农就 业人数将增加11万，较上个月的13.9万有所放缓，失业率将从4.2%小幅升至4.3%，同比时薪增速 将维持在3.9%不变，环比增速将从5月的0.4%放缓至0.3%。 摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen在给客户的一份报告中写道，"我们认为劳动力需求 正在放缓，但到目前为止， 放缓的幅度是温和的。 " 若非农数据符合预期，这将使美联储保持在9月降息的轨道上，这也符合投资者目前通过期货市 场的预期。然而， 任何更快恶化的迹象，都将增加市场对美联储在即将到来的7月29-30日政策会 议上提前行动的押注。 牛津经济研究院的首席美国经济学家Nancy Vanden Houten在一份报告中说，"6月份疲软的就业 市场是未来趋势的一个信号，我们预计，由于关税和高度的政策不确定性，今年剩余时间的就业 增长趋势将会减弱。" 另一方面， 特朗普政府停止移民和加强驱逐出境的努 ...

Group 1 - The market is focusing on the performance expectations of the technology sector, particularly in sub-sectors like optical modules and PCBs that benefit from the digital economy and 5G development [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, guiding credit structure towards technology innovation, consumption, and support for small and micro enterprises [1] - The continuous deepening of reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market aims to effectively support technological innovation, with increased financial policy support for the tech sector [1] Group 2 - Chinese securities firms are innovating in virtual asset businesses, with firms like Guotai Junan International obtaining upgraded virtual asset trading licenses, which may lead to new performance increments and enhance competitive advantages through digital finance [1] - The central bank, along with multiple departments, issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing structural monetary policy tools and increasing credit support for key service consumption areas [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship ETF tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, which includes 50 emerging industry stocks with significant market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in China's tech innovation sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index has shown strong performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks, indicating a positive trend in the healthcare sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 3, 2025, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 1.67%, with notable gains from stocks such as Huahao Zhongtian Pharmaceutical-B (+16.97%) and Ascentage Pharma-B (+7.11%) [1]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (Jia Shi, 159557) increased by 1.48% [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover of 6.64% and a transaction volume of 21.35 million yuan, with an average daily transaction volume of 46.55 million yuan over the past month [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The latest scale of the Hang Seng Healthcare ETF reached 315 million yuan, marking a one-year high, with the latest share count at 221 million, also a three-month high [2]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 2.048 million yuan recently [2]. - Over the past year, the net value of the ETF has increased by 68.77%, ranking 16th out of 122 QDII equity funds, placing it in the top 13.11% [2]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Healthcare Index is 27.19, which is in the 9.23rd percentile over the past three years, indicating a valuation lower than 90.77% of the historical data [2]. Group 4: Sector Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index account for 57.72% of the index, including companies like Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and WuXi Biologics [3][5]. - The top stocks have shown varied performance, with notable increases in companies like XinDa Biologics (+6.12%) and Kangfang Biologics (+6.95%) [5]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - According to Xiangcai Securities, the domestic innovative drug industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven growth, presenting opportunities for both performance and valuation recovery [6]. - The commercialization of innovative products and the acceleration of research outcomes are expected to support market recovery [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. job growth is expected to slow down, with a forecast of an increase of 106,000 jobs in June, the lowest in four months, and an unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [1] - The increase in unemployment claims and a significant rise in layoff notices indicate a weakening job market, with the number of continuing unemployment claims reaching 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - The labor force participation rate has decreased to 62.4%, suggesting that the unemployment rate may remain stable if this trend continues [4] Group 2 - Various industries, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, and trade and transportation, are expected to show significant changes in employment numbers, with a consensus on a slowdown in hiring [5] - The leisure and hospitality sector had a strong performance in May, but economists predict a potential reversal in June due to reduced consumer spending on travel and related services [5] - There is a risk of downward revisions in hiring data for April and May, particularly in small businesses, which may affect the overall employment numbers reported for June [5]