值得一提的是，都逸敏提出投资需要一定的"时代感"。当下的市场环境在寻找新经济的"明珠"方面效率 很高，但是在寻找传统经济的"遗珠"上定价效率一般。新材料作为战略性、基础性产业，不仅是推动现 代制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化转型的核心要素，也与很多传统经济传统行业紧密相关。在市场对传 统经济"遗珠"反应之前，为投资者留出了较大的选股空间。同时，随着基础工业品的需求在提升，我国 经济发展范式不再依赖过量资本投入，基础工业品供给有望长期受限，相关行业盈利逐渐步入修复通 道，比如电解铝、制冷剂等行业已有所表现。 展望2026年新材料相关投资方向，都逸敏非常看好化工领域的投资机会。他认为，化工行业经历了2022 年至2024年三年盈利下行后，于2025年Capex增速转负，很多子行业产能利用率已持续提升至80至 90%，而价差仍在底部。而且在全球需求持续增长的背景下，化工供需拐点向上有望持续修复盈利。从 过往历史来看，PPI拐点也是化工超额收益起点，而2025年7月PPI同比增速已经见底，2026年至2027年 有望转正。很多龙头公司盈利若恢复至历史中枢水平就有不错的向上空间。"涨价会是贯穿 2026 年全年 重要的投资 ...

Core Views - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with a positive outlook for the post-holiday market driven by liquidity improvement and policy expectations [2][3][10] - Key sectors such as cultural media, gaming, and AI applications are performing strongly, while sectors like precious metals and new energy are experiencing adjustments [4][9] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed mixed results, with cultural media and AI application sectors performing well, while precious metals and new energy sectors faced declines [4][5] - The overall market sentiment is characterized by orderly rotation of hotspots, indicating a positive trend towards stabilization [3][9] Sector Analysis - The cultural media sector has shown significant growth, with a 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, and is expected to continue to have structural investment value in 2026 due to advancements in AI technology and economic recovery [6][7] - The AI theme remains active, with a focus on applications and hardware, indicating a shift from investment in computing power to practical applications in 2026 [7][8] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to see increased activity post-holiday, with a focus on liquidity return and policy developments, which could provide new investment opportunities [3][10] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on low-cost opportunities in small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [3][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the combination of technology and cyclical sectors remains a key investment theme, with expectations of PPI turning positive driving EPS growth and liquidity support [1] - The article highlights the importance of focusing on stable growth in end-user sectors and the commercialization of ToB applications, particularly in areas such as computing hardware, energy storage, AI applications, and intelligent driving [1] - The Guotai Science and Innovation ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Innovation 50 Index (931643), which includes 50 large-cap emerging industry companies from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards, reflecting the overall performance of representative emerging industries [1] Group 2 - The index focuses on industries such as electronics, power equipment, communications, and biomedicine, emphasizing technological attributes and innovative growth, with a relatively balanced industry allocation [1] - The cyclical sectors are expected to show significant price and valuation elasticity during the phase of PPI turning positive, with reduced competition potentially leading to improved performance in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, steel, and building materials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Emergency Management has released a series of typical accident cases in industrial and trade enterprises to guide and urge regions and companies to learn from these lessons, effectively prevent major safety risks, and curb various accidents [1] Group 1: Accident Cases - On February 7, 2023, an explosion at a small illegal workshop in Shanxi Province resulted in 8 deaths and 3 injuries, prompting the State Council's Safety Committee to oversee the investigation and accountability [1] - On February 18, 2022, an explosion at Huaye Foundry in Guangdong caused 3 deaths and 2 serious injuries due to improper installation and operation of an oxygen lance, leading to a primary and secondary explosion [2] - On February 18, 2024, an explosion at Asia-Pacific Light Alloy in Jiangsu resulted in 5 deaths and 13 injuries due to a failure to install safety components, leading to a catastrophic aluminum liquid leak and explosion [3] - On February 5, 2014, a poisoning incident at Embraco in Beijing resulted in 3 deaths when workers improperly used sulfuric acid for cleaning, leading to the release of hydrogen sulfide gas [4] - On February 15, 2025, a dust explosion at Qianbaiwei Food Ingredients in Shandong caused 5 deaths due to metal sparks igniting dust during equipment installation [5] - On January 10, 2023, a poisoning incident at Fuqiang Hongtai Dyeing in Zhejiang resulted in 3 deaths and 3 injuries due to the release of hydrogen sulfide gas from improperly managed acidic wastewater [6] - On December 27, 2023, a carbon monoxide poisoning incident at a hot pot restaurant in Shanxi injured 23 people due to inadequate ventilation and improper combustion of the cooking equipment [7] Group 2: Lessons Learned - Companies must improve risk identification and safety management, especially during the resumption of operations after holidays, to prevent accidents [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] - There is a need for strict adherence to operational protocols and safety measures, including proper installation of safety devices and conducting thorough safety checks [2][3][4][5][6] - The importance of training employees on safety awareness and emergency response to prevent the escalation of accidents is highlighted [4][5][6][7]

A股这7大板块，勾勒出中 国经济全貌 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 妙投团队 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 幸福的人大致相同，不幸的人各有各的不幸。 银河证券研报显示，截至1月31日，2956家A股上市公司已披露2025年年报业绩预告，披露率为54%。其中 电机、地面兵装、个护用品、风电设备预喜率 （包括扭亏、续盈、略增、预增等情形） 超过70%，汽车行 业超过50%，受益于AI算力需求的电子和通信行业，预喜率分别达到45%和37%。这些大体上属于科技、高 端制造、新消费等领域。 而传统行业，大多较为一般。 煤炭、房地产、轻工制造、建筑装饰、食品饮料、社会服务、石油石化等行业预喜率较低，均低于25%； 焦炭、体育、林业、农业综合、厨卫电器、油气开采、白酒行业预喜率更是均为0%；传统行业中预喜率较 高的，主要是非银金融、有色金属、钢铁、公用事业等少数行业。 展望2026年，有些业绩不错的行业，有望继续保持成长。而有些2025年经营惨淡的行业，也有边际复苏的 机会，或者有复苏的预期。 这句话放到宏观经济各个层面中来看，也是如此。有的行业经历着良好的增长，有的行业在期待着复苏的 曙光。 2025年到现在，无 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that green development is essential for high-quality growth, with a strong commitment from the government towards achieving carbon neutrality and ecological civilization [2][3][5] - The "dual carbon" goals are seen as a necessary strategy for transforming the economy and addressing resource and environmental constraints, reflecting a shift from high-speed to high-quality development [3][4][6] - The global consensus on climate change necessitates a green low-carbon transition, which is crucial for enhancing China's competitiveness in international markets and aligning with global economic trends [4][6][10] Group 2 - The transition to a green economy is aimed at achieving higher quality, sustainable, and resilient development, integrating ecological considerations into all aspects of economic and social development [5][6][11] - Key areas for transformation include the clean energy system, industrial structure upgrades, and technological innovation, which are vital for reducing carbon emissions and enhancing economic stability [8][9][10] - The establishment of a comprehensive green low-carbon policy framework and the promotion of green finance are essential for supporting this transition, with significant growth in green loans and bonds observed [11][12] Group 3 - The importance of public participation in the green transition is highlighted, with initiatives like carbon credit systems encouraging individual contributions to sustainability [12] - Regional differences in resources and industrial bases necessitate tailored approaches to green transformation, with eastern regions leading in innovation and western regions focusing on clean energy development [12]

上周A股市场整体承压，主要宽基指数普遍下跌，价值股整体表现偏强。行业上，食品饮料、银行、建 材行业继续上行，有色、通信、石化行业转跌，电子、计算机、化工行业继续下跌。 宏观分析：地方两会政策聚焦扩内需与强科技 国内方面，地方两会时间开启，从各地经济增长目标和政策部署来看，增长目标稳中有降，增量政策聚 焦扩内需与强科技。 投资策略：关注内需价值与新兴科技两大方向 在震荡之后，市场有望逐步企稳，或可持股过节。市场仍具备以下积极因素：1）全球市场正快速计入 美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息立场更鸽派和确定。与此同时，贝森特澄清强美 元政策并非指干预汇率，海外金融紧缩预期边际改善。2）国内政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要 任务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报。3）证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势 头"，A股上市公司亦掀起回购热潮。 投资思路上，新兴科技仍有望是主线，价值股也有春天。考虑到当下估值分化的极端性，以及资金高低 切的部分需求，短期内风格有切换的可能性，可关注自由现金流指数等代表公司质量的标的。 具体方向上，1）内需价值：春节后内需板块超额概率较高，叠加扩内需成为重要增长抓手， ...

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance of equity public funds has decreased to 8.42 billion units, down from 32.79 billion units, but remains at a historically high level[8] - The net outflow of margin financing has increased to 52.1 billion CNY, marking a 2% percentile over the past three years[13] - The net inflow of southbound funds has surged to 49.83 billion CNY, reaching a historical high and representing a 96% percentile[40] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 17 percentage points to 49%[46] - The trading heat for the liquor sector has risen by 10 percentage points to 15%[53] - The trading heat for the communication sector has also increased by 10 percentage points to 47%[66] - The trading heat for the home appliance sector has decreased by 12 percentage points to 47%[53] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 162.44 billion CNY, a decrease of 54.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 87.4% percentile over the past five years[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.5% on February 2, leading to an increase in self-media search interest in A-shares[73]

21快讯记者据同花顺iFind统计，近10年春节假期前后5个交易日，沪指均录得7年上涨，3年下跌。春节 假期前后1个交易日，沪指均录得6年上涨，4年下跌。整体来看，A股春节前后大概率上涨。 | | | 近10年春节假期前后沪指涨跌情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年份 | 节前5天 | 节前1天 | 节后1天 | 节后5天 | | 2025年 | 0.19% | -0.06% | -0.65% | 2.08% | | 2024年 | 3.43% | 1.28% | 1.56% | 4.85% | | 2023年 | 2.18% | 0.76% | 0.14% | -0.04% | | 2022年 | -4.57% | -0.97% | 2.03% | 3.02% | | 2021年 | 3.92% | 1.43% | 0.55% | -2.49% | | 2020年 | -3.17% | -2.75% | -7.72% | -3.38% | | 2019年 | 0.63% | 1.30% | 1.36% | 2.45% | | 2018年 | -3.33% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment sentiment surrounding the Chinese stock market as the Lunar New Year approaches, highlighting a historical tendency for the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) to rise during this period, leading to a prevailing recommendation for investors to "hold stocks" over the holiday [1][3]. Market Performance Analysis - Over the past decade, the SSE has recorded an increase in 7 out of 10 years during the 5 trading days before the Lunar New Year, and 6 out of 10 years on the day before the holiday [1][2]. - Recent market trends show the SSE rebounding above 4100 points after a strong rally at the end of 2025, with significant gains observed on February 9, 2026, where the SSE rose over 1% [2]. Institutional Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms express optimism regarding the market's performance around the Lunar New Year, with a consensus on the "hold stocks" strategy based on historical trends and current economic conditions [3]. - China Galaxy Securities identifies two main reasons for a favorable market outlook: ongoing supportive policies since September 2024 aimed at enhancing investor confidence and liquidity support from various financial factors [3]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The overall A-share index price-to-book (PB) ratio has decreased to 1.90, placing it at the 54.40th percentile historically, indicating a return to median valuation levels [4]. - Earnings forecasts for 2026 suggest a shift where profitability may become the focal point for market attention, with structural improvements noted in sectors such as technology manufacturing and cyclical industries benefiting from price increases [4]. Sector Performance Insights - Historical data indicates that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electric equipment have performed well before the holiday, while sectors like environmental protection, electronics, media, and agriculture are expected to excel post-holiday [4].