华创证券指出，中证A500行业配置聚焦四大方向：科创、顺周期、出海及地产链。科创领域受益 于康波周期下的科技博弈，估值上限有望继续打开，重点关注光学元件、PCB、集成电路等细分领域； 顺周期行业在再通胀交易中表现突出，尤其是供给紧张的周期（有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭）、制造（机械/ 医药/交运）、消费（养殖/纺服）及科技（消费电子/光学光电子）板块。出海逻辑强调产能全球化布 局，关注电新、机械、通信等高景气赛道；地产链则处于中期触底阶段，建筑建材、家居家电、物管等 具备困境反转的高赔率机会。行业新旧动能转换中，科技制造ROE稳步抬升。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 把握A股机遇，或可关注中证A500ETF（159338），中证A500创新指数编制方案，以国际通用 的"行业均衡"方式编制。从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列 ...

12 月 A 股策略观点 - "策略周中谈"20251203 摘要 美联储降息预期波动和美元流动性收紧对市场产生影响，A 股受中美股 市联动影响，但强度偏弱，60 日均线构成阻力，市场情绪和量能指标显 示短期调整压力。 尽管短期市场面临调整，但长期慢牛格局判断不变，回调被视为布局机 会，半年线附近存在支撑，人民币强势和美元偏弱为 A 股长期走强奠定 基础。 12 月策略为择机布局，为跨年行情做准备，关注关键政策会议前市场调 整带来的介入时机，成交量缩至 1.3~1.6 万亿时是较好机会。 看好跨年行情，原因包括牛市状态下行情易发、机构对春季行情预期一 致、美联储大概率降息并停止缩表、十五开局之年政策期待增加等。 跨年行情中，看好电力设备、生物医药等科技成长板块，以及经济复苏 预期下的社服、食品饮料等消费板块，和有色、石油石化等顺周期板块， 以及国防军工等主题。 市场关注科技成长和资源品，科技成长领域关注 AI 应用、新能源（储能、 固态电池、核电）、创新药、机械设备、化工等板块，以及港股互联网 和商业航天。 新能源领域重点看好储能投资，包括正极、负极、电解液、隔膜、铜铝 箔等材料，以及六氟磷酸锂和 VC 等添 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with robotics stocks emerging as the "superstars" of the night, showing explosive growth [1] - Nauticus Robotics surged over 135% at one point, closing with a gain of 115.83%, while iRobot rose by 73.85% [1] - Other robotics companies like Serve Robotics and Richtech Robotics also saw impressive gains, exceeding 18% [1] - Tesla benefited from favorable factors, increasing by over 4%, and tech stocks like Google and TSMC rose by more than 1% [1] Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Trump administration is accelerating the development of robotics technology, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo meeting with various robotics CEOs to discuss industry direction [2] - The U.S. government is considering an executive order on robotics technology, indicating a strong commitment to advancing this sector [2] - A new robotics working group is being established by the U.S. Department of Transportation, with an announcement expected by the end of the year [2] Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. job market showed unexpected weakness, with ADP reporting a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023 [2][3] - Small businesses, particularly those with fewer than 50 employees, were hit hardest, losing a total of 120,000 jobs [3] - In contrast, large enterprises (50+ employees) added 90,000 jobs, highlighting a significant disparity in the labor market [3] Group 4: Wage Growth - Wage growth is slowing, with job switchers seeing a salary increase of 6.3%, the lowest since February 2021, while those staying in their positions experienced a 4.4% increase [3] - This data is based on payroll records covering over 26 million private sector employees [3] Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - As of December 4, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surged to 89% [4] - The likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 11%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January 2024 having a probability of 64.8% [4] Group 6: Other Market Highlights - The metals sector also performed well, with Glencore's ADR rising by 7.29%, and other companies like Alcoa and Freeport-McMoRan seeing gains of 6.37% and 3.63% respectively [4] - Overall, the market displayed a complex and diverse landscape influenced by the robotics sector's excitement, the cooling job market, and strong performance in the metals sector [4]

Group 1: Robot Industry Surge - The robot sector in the US stock market experienced a significant surge, with Nauticus Robotics rising over 135% at one point and closing with a gain of 115.83%, while iRobot saw an increase of 73.85% [2][10] - The Trump administration is reportedly accelerating the development of robot technology, with the US Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, meeting with multiple CEOs from the robot industry [2][3] - The US Department of Transportation is preparing to establish a robot working group, which may be announced by the end of the year [3][11] Group 2: Government Initiatives - There are discussions within the US government about potentially issuing an executive order on robot technology next year, indicating a growing interest in this sector [3][11] - The US Commerce Department emphasized its commitment to promoting robotics and advanced manufacturing as essential for bringing critical production back to the US [3][11] - The establishment of a National Robotics Committee has been proposed by Republican lawmakers, highlighting the increasing political interest in robot technology [3][12] Group 3: Labor Market Data - The latest ADP employment data revealed that the US private sector experienced its largest job cuts in nearly two years, with a reduction of 32,000 jobs in November, significantly below market expectations [5][14] - Small businesses, particularly those with fewer than 50 employees, were heavily impacted, losing a total of 120,000 jobs, while larger companies added 90,000 jobs, indicating a clear divide in the labor market [6][15] - Wage growth has also slowed, with job switchers seeing a salary increase of 6.3%, the lowest since February 2021, and those remaining in their positions experiencing a 4.4% increase, down 0.1 percentage points from October [6][15]

【导读】富时罗素宣布对富时中国A50等指数进行调整 中国基金报记者 莫琳 作为国际资金跟踪 的主要 标的之一，富时中国A50指数迎来年内最后一次调整。 12月3日， 富时罗素宣布对 富时中国50指数、富时中国A50指数、富时中国A150指数 等的季度审核变更。该变更将于2025年12月19日 星期五收盘后（即2025年12月22日星期一）生效。 有色、储能大牛股被纳入 据了解，富时中国A50指数由上海和深圳证券交易所市场中总市值最大的50只股票组成，反映A股市场中最具影响力的前50大上市公司股 票的表现。从历次指数成份股变动情况来看，调整逻辑主要是市值的变化。 此次 调整中， 富时中国A50指数 将 洛阳钼业和阳光电源 纳入 ，同时剔除江苏银行和顺丰控股。 | 177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票简称 | 本地代码 | 国际代码 | | 洛阳钼业 | 603993 | BP3R574 | | 阳光电源 | 300274 | BD5CGB4 | | 1125 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 票简称 | 本地代码 | 国际代码 | | [苏银行 | 6009 ...

| | | [Table_Report] 相关报告 服务消费景气提升，科技硬件延续涨价 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 中观景气 12 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 中观景气延续分化的增长格局，新兴科技景气仍强，高性能存储价格延续快速上涨， 游戏供给偏宽松；服务消费景气明显提升，地产周期和耐用品需求仍承压。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 陶前陈(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976164 | | | taoqianchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070014 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | 资产概览：银价铜价创历史新高 2025.12.01 外资与融资资金重回流入 2025.12.01 消费景气线索增多，科技制造延续增长 2025.11.26 ETF 流入明显，融资资金与外资有所流出 2025.11.24 资产概览：美元兑日元逼近 160 关口 2025.11.24 策 略 研 究 告 请务必阅读正文 ...

在经历10月红利板块整体回暖后，11月红利资产的表现则明显分化。 Wind数据显示，11月，银行、石油石化、有色板块继续成为避险资金的核心配置方向。其中，银行板 块在10月上涨4.18%后，11月再涨3.1%。石油石化板块同样如此，在10月获得5.68%的涨幅后，11月再 攀升3.37%。有色板块截至11月末已连续6个月收红，不过11月涨幅收窄为0.61%。而电力、交运、公用 事业等传统红利板块则结束了10月的上行，在11月相继回调，相关指数分别下跌2.23%、2.49%、 1.76%。 业内人士表示，资金正从"全面防御"向"结构性高股息"切换。业内人士预计，未来红利资产还将继续分 化，资金将更聚焦于分红稳定、基本面扎实的优质标的。其中，"稳"字头的细分红利板块或可成为避险 或者"安全垫"资产，高股息叠加顺周期的细分板块则是配置型资金的重要选择。 红利资产现结构性分化 畅力资产董事长宝晓辉强调，红利资产近期已呈现结构性分化特征，他预计，未来这一分化态势大概率 会持续。 "之所以会出现这种情况，主要有两大因素影响了红利资产的股息率变化。"宝晓辉解释道，一是股价上 涨、下跌带来的"被动股息率变化"，二是经营基本面 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is likely to remain in a fluctuating but strong pattern in the short term, with pressures above and support below [2][10][13] - Key pressures include weak domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas markets, potential profit-locking by institutions, insufficient willingness of incremental capital to enter, and significant selling pressure near the 4000-point mark [2][10][11] - Support factors include marginal improvements in the domestic economy, expectations for important policy meetings, and a continued loose monetary policy [3][11][12] Market Overview - On the previous Tuesday, the three major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced a downward trend, failing to continue the recovery from the previous week, with a general decline across the market and reduced trading volume [2][5][10] - The total trading volume on that day was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of effective market entry momentum [2][10][12] Sector Analysis - The shipbuilding and military sectors showed strong activity, with previous recommendations highlighting investment opportunities in this area, which has outperformed the broader market in recent years [7][10] - Consumer stocks, including tourism, food and beverage, and retail, also saw gains, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption [8][9] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "sector rotation, fluctuating but strong" characteristic, with the need for more effective stimulus to break the current deadlock [3][11][12] - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, adopting strategies such as balanced allocation and high sell-low buy, particularly in sectors with strong performance support [4][12]

债券类投资的主要配置与交易力量来自专业机构投资者，包括银行、基金、保险等，其中银行是核心力 量，其资金结构与股票投资存在较大差异，这也导致股债两类资产的定价方式有明显不同。就像大家常 调侃的，股票资产的走势并不太依赖经济基本面的实际运行，但债券资产却比较看重经济的实际表现以 及对未来基本面的判断，这里给大家同步一下最新的10月经济数据情况。 地产投资与大家的感受一致，地产开发投资及销售情况均未达预期。10月商品房销售面积与销售额同比 增速进一步下滑，对应的房企资金及房地产投资增速也同步回落。消费是今年的亮点领域，这得益于去 年以来实施的消费补贴政策，但想必大家都有感受——由于与生活息息相关，消费补贴正在退坡，这与 年末部分地区资金使用情况有关。我们之前也讨论过，除了消费补贴退坡，部分产品（如手机、消费电 子、摄影器材等）经过去年至今的更新周期，用户的更新需求已基本释放，因此数据显示消费延续偏弱 走势。 从分类数据来看，金银珠宝是一大亮点。受传统文化习俗影响，国人对黄金珠宝的喜爱度较高，因此尽 管金价上涨，黄金消费品的增速依然表现亮眼。而家电品类，自去年开始享受补贴后，8-10月增速逐步 下行，10月同比增速转 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 牛市下半场，实物再通胀 ——2026 年度投资策略 ❖ 百年变局看中国资产：从"看短做短"到"看长做长" 1）看短做短的背后是长期因子突变下估值体系的紊乱失效，"十四五"期间战 略防御的政策取向，是百年变局下的主动应对，预计"十五五"转向战略相持 进攻、看长做长。2）全球视角看人民币资产优势：①体制：财政足债务稳健、 旧经济出清早，率先双宽稳定扩张；②产业/人才：康波周期下制造产业链齐备 &科创人才红利；③估值：既看 GDP 也看 GNI，人民币国际化，全球 ERP 和 金本位视角看中国资产占优。3）续写增长奇迹的锚点：经济建设为中心，中 长期 GDP 提升路径：居民消费率+中产扩容。结束低价不仅是复苏更是焕发新 生。 ❖ 重塑估值体系：减重增肌的宏观范式、腾笼换鸟的 ROE、居民存款搬家 1）量增质弱的旧范式：地产银行主导的信贷脉冲→减重增肌的新范式：审慎 开支高效运转的高 ROE 权益回报。2）腾笼换鸟的 ROE：新旧动能转换。旧 经济地产链对 A 股 ROE 拖累基本结束，A 股 ROE 告别高杠杆驱动，转向科 技制造高利率、高周转、分红回购。结构转型实现 ...