1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

随着半年报密集发布，多家焦炭企业业绩也逐渐浮出水面。记者了解到，2025年上半年，焦化行业在供 需失衡、价格下行、行业亏损的困境中艰难前行。截至8月27日，5家焦炭上市企业公布半年报，其中， 仅宝泰隆（601011.SH）实现盈利，山西焦化（600740.SH）、云煤能源（600792.SH）、陕西黑猫 （601015.SH）、美锦能源（000723.SZ）分别亏损0.78亿元、1.63亿元、4.62亿元、6.74亿元。 据统计，上半年，全国规模以上工业企业焦炭累计产量为2.49亿吨，同比增长3.0%，国内焦化厂开工负 荷整体偏高，焦炭供应同比增加明显，而下游钢企需求整体偏弱，焦炭"供强需弱"。 下游钢厂抵触情绪明显 价格方面，卓创资讯分析师张敏告诉《华夏时报》记者，上半年国内焦炭价格整体以降为主，1—6月份 焦炭市场价格累计跌10轮，涨1轮，河北唐山地区准一级干熄焦累计下滑515元/吨，降幅27%。 多家焦炭企业利润下滑 记者了解到，宝泰隆上半年实现营业收入3.57亿元，同比下降55.99%；不过，归母净利润0.99亿元，成 功实现由亏转盈。但从公司半年报深入分析可知，今年上半年，公司焦炉设备处于停产检修状 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On August 28, the JM2601 contract closed at 1175.0, up 0.90%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The market should be treated as a range-bound operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On August 28, the J2601 contract closed at 1672.5, down 0.51%. The spot price of coke was proposed for the eighth round of price increases by major coke enterprises. The market should be treated as a range-bound operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1175.00 yuan/ton, up 21.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1672.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 927,249.00 lots, up 14,534.00 lots; J期货合约持仓量 was 47,918.00 lots, up 550.00 lots [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓 was -125,180.00 lots, up 3,769.00 lots; 焦炭前20名合约净持仓 was -4,921.00 lots, up 296.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差 was 155.00 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan; J1 - 9月合约价差 was 89.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. - 焦煤仓单 was 0.00 sheets; 焦炭仓单 was 820.00 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 978.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J主力合约基差 was 102.50 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM主力合约基差 was 125.00 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.00 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 289.50 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the monthly output of raw coal was 38,098.70 million tons, down 4,008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 3,561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60 million tons, down 2.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 450.45 million tons, up 2.67 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.62 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coke enterprises was 966.41 million tons, down 10.47 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coke enterprises was 64.37 million tons, up 1.86 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 812.31 million tons, up 6.51 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.59 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coke enterprises was 13.07 days, up 0.10 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 10.76 days, down 0.07 days [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4,064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4,185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7,965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - Personal bankruptcy local regulations have been implemented in Xiamen. Natural persons who meet certain conditions can undergo reorganization, reconciliation, or bankruptcy liquidation [2]. - Chinese chip manufacturers are seeking to triple their AI chip production in 2026 to reduce dependence on Nvidia [2]. - PetroChina is studying the possibility of using stablecoins in cross - border settlement and payment [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative visited Canada from the 24th to the 27th and will then go to Washington, the United States, to meet with relevant US officials [2]. Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal, on August 28, the 2601 contract closed at 1175.0, up 0.90%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The macro - level shows that the peak summer power consumption period is over, and power supply is stable. The fundamental situation is that the mine - end inventory has increased, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the market is in a range - bound operation [2]. - For coke, on August 28, the 2601 contract closed at 1672.5, down 0.51%. The spot price of coke was proposed for the eighth round of price increases by major coke enterprises. The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative visited Canada and will then go to the United States. The fundamental situation is that the demand side has high pig iron production, the mine - end inventory pressure has eased, and the total coking coal inventory has increased. The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the market is in a range - bound operation [2].

Group 1 - The coke sector experienced a 1.89% increase on August 28, with Meijin Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3843.6, up 1.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12571.37, up 2.25% [1] - Meijin Energy's stock price rose by 5.43% to 4.85, with a trading volume of 2.1816 million shares and a transaction value of 1.045 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the coke sector was 137 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 102 million yuan [1] - Meijin Energy had a main fund net inflow of 106 million yuan, accounting for 10.17% of its total [2] - Cloud Weaving Co. had a main fund net inflow of 30.8151 million yuan, representing 11.43% of its total [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Author: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Key Points Price Information - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1535.94, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 54.61, a monthly increase of 163.84, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.96% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1780.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 185.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.05% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1715.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.28% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1755.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.03% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1180.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% [2] Production and Capacity Utilization - The blast furnace operating rate is 90.25, with a weekly increase of 0.03, a monthly decrease of 0.56, and a year - on - year increase of 5.04% [2] - The daily average pig iron output is 240.75, with a weekly increase of 0.09, a monthly decrease of 1.48, and a year - on - year increase of 7.26% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.13, with a weekly increase of 0.38, a monthly increase of 1.23, and a year - on - year increase of 2.33% [2] - The daily average coke output is 51.63, with a weekly decrease of 0.04, a monthly decrease of 1.47, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.20% [2] Inventory Information - The coking plant inventory is 39.47, with a weekly increase of 0.16, a monthly decrease of 10.65, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.82% [2] - The port inventory is 214.62, with a weekly decrease of 0.49, a monthly increase of 16.49, and a year - on - year increase of 12.24% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 609.59, with a weekly decrease of 0.21, a monthly decrease of 30.39, and a year - on - year increase of 13.52% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 10.76, with a weekly decrease of 0.07, a monthly decrease of 0.69, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46% [2] Futures Information - The price of futures contract 05 is 1768, with a daily decrease of 38.50, a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly increase of 50.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.54% [2] - The price of futures contract 09 is 1608, with a daily decrease of 28.00, a weekly decrease of 16.00, a monthly decrease of 4.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.76% [2] - The price of futures contract 01 is 1681, with a daily decrease of 37.00, a weekly increase of 2.00, a monthly increase of 16.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.27% [2] - The basis of contract 05 is 66.35, with a daily increase of 38.50, a weekly increase of 57.35, a monthly increase of 120.29, and a year - on - year increase of 87.12 [2] - The basis of contract 09 is 226.35, with a daily increase of 28.00, a weekly increase of 69.35, a monthly increase of 174.79, and a year - on - year increase of 157.12 [2] - The basis of contract 01 is 153.35, with a daily increase of 37.00, a weekly increase of 51.35, a monthly increase of 154.29, and a year - on - year increase of 135.62 [2] - The spread between contracts 5 - 9 is - 87.00, with a daily increase of 1.50, a weekly increase of 6.00, a monthly decrease of 34.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 48.50 [2] - The spread between contracts 9 - 1 is 160.00, with a daily decrease of 10.50, a weekly increase of 12.00, a monthly increase of 54.50, and a year - on - year increase of 70.00 [2] - The spread between contracts 1 - 5 is - 73.00, with a daily increase of 9.00, a weekly decrease of 18.00, a monthly decrease of 20.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.50 [2]

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are in a weak downward trend. The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar has stopped falling and risen, and the near - month rebar has turned from weak to strong. The spread between the October and January contracts of hot - rolled coils has continued to strengthen. The difference in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils is due to the widening of the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has fallen from a maximum of 290 to around 250 yuan. In August, the supply of rebar increased while demand decreased, especially the demand dropped significantly, which affected the weakening of steel prices, and the decline of rebar was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. - Last week's data showed that rebar production decreased again, and apparent demand stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will decline from a high level. From the perspective of total apparent demand, last week's demand data showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but it was still at an off - season level. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering that steel demand has not stalled and coking coal has not resumed production, it is expected that steel prices will remain in a high - level volatile pattern, but recently steel prices are weaker than iron ore and coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3361 to 3348 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan to 3010 yuan, and the price of slab billets remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan to 3345 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 22 yuan to 133 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig - iron output increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 to 878.1 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 5.8 to 214.7 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.7 to 325.2 tons, an increase of 3.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 to 1441.0 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8%. Rebar inventory increased by 19.8 to 607.0 tons, a growth rate of 3.4%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 to 361.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 9.1 tons, with a growth rate of 9.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 22.0 to 853.0 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 4.9 to 194.8 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 6.5 to 321.3 tons, a growth rate of 2.1% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the 2601 contract of iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore has declined from a high level on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future will increase periodically. - On the demand side, last week, the profit margin of steel mills was at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and pig - iron output increased slightly at a high level and remained at around 240,000 tons per day. It is expected that pig - iron output will decrease this week due to production in Tangshan. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the apparent demand of downstream products has increased on a month - on - month basis recently, which supports steel prices. - In terms of inventory, port inventory has decreased slightly, the port clearance volume has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Looking forward, pig - iron output will decline slightly at a high level at the end of August. The market sentiment was overdrawn by the futures price increase on Monday. Currently, the fundamentals are difficult to drive a significant increase, so the price rose on Tuesday and then fell back. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, and pig - iron output will increase, which will support raw materials. Coupled with the relatively low port inventory compared to the same period last year and the high daily consumption of steel mills, the futures price still has a basis for rebound. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and an iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread is recommended for arbitrage [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders has increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 19.2 to 40.7 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 112.2%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 43.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.0, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 22.0 [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of most iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of Jinbuba powder decreased by 2 yuan to 725.0 yuan/ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap decreased by 0.3 to 101.7 dollars/ton, and the price of the Platts 62% Fe decreased by 1.1 to 102.0 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 83.3 to 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 3.4%. The weekly global shipment volume decreased by 90.8 to 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9 to 325.7 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 46.5 to 13798.68 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 to 9065.5 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [3]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints Coke - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot price of coke has risen after the seventh - round price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotation has followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of the price increase, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. On the demand side, the pig - iron output from blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand still has resilience. It is expected that pig - iron output will decline slightly in August due to production restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory has decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still have a need to replenish inventory, and the arrival of goods is delayed, so they finally accepted the seventh - round price increase of coke. Yesterday, the futures price decreased, and the futures price has a slight premium for wet - quenched coke but is at a discount to the warehouse - receipt cost of dry - quenched coke, and the hedging space has narrowed. Production restrictions in Tangshan are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. The short - term supply - demand tightness will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the supply of coke will gradually become looser. The futures price has recently followed the decline of coking coal. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Coking Coal - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking - coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction price is stable to weak, and the Mongolian - coal quotation has decreased slightly. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal - mine production - suspension rectifications, the coal - mine start - up rate has decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and shipments have slowed down. Coal mines are selling at a reduced profit, the market supply - demand situation has eased, some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, and the price of imported Mongolian coal has followed the decline of futures. Due to the relatively high price, downstream users have been cautious about replenishing inventory recently. On the demand side, the start - up rate of coking has increased slightly, the pig - iron output from downstream blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream demand for inventory replenishment has slowed down. Considering the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the military parade, pig - iron output will decline periodically at the end of August. In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and steel mills have slightly increased their inventory, while coal - washing plants and coking plants have slightly decreased their inventory. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market has stabilized after a slight correction. The approaching delivery of the near - month contract exerts some pressure on the 09 contract, and the far - month valuation still has a premium over the near - month Mongolian - coal warehouse receipt. The mine accident in Fujian and the production - suspension of some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi have triggered expectations of production restrictions, which drove the price increase on Monday, but the spot market is still running weakly and stably, and the price has given back the previous rebound in the past two trading days. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1610 to 1601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1681 to 1670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. For coking coal, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1031 to 1012 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1161 to 1154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The raw - coal output of sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 860.4 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean - coal output increased by 3.4 to 442.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [6]. Demand - The weekly pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 888.6 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.9 to 64.4 tons, a growth rate of 3.04%, the steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 0.2 to 609.6 tons, a decrease of 0.0%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.5 to 214.6 tons, a decrease of 0.24%. The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 5.7 to 117.6 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%, the coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 10.5 to 966.4 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the steel - mill coking - coal inventory increased by 6.5 to 812.3 tons, a growth rate of 0.8% [6].

证券之星消息，近日陕西黑猫披露，截至2025年6月30日公司股东户数为8.31万户，较3月31日减少 5006.0户，减幅为5.68%。户均持股数量由上期的2.32万股增加至2.46万股，户均持股市值为8.06万元。 根据统计，陕西黑猫2025年3月31日至2025年6月30日，主力资金净流出3348.28万元，游资资金净流出 6591.31万元，散户资金净流入9939.6万元。 在焦炭行业个股中，陕西黑猫股东户数低于行业平均水平，截至6月30日，焦炭行业平均股东户数为 9.12万户。户均持股市值方面，焦炭行业A股上市公司户均持股市值为7.9万元，陕西黑猫高于行业平均 水平。 从股价来看，2025年3月31日至2025年6月30日，陕西黑猫区间涨幅为6.49%，在此期间股东户数减少 5006.0户，减幅为5.68%。 | | | | 统计截止日｜区间股价涨跌幅｜股东户数｜增减｜增减比例｜户均持股市值（元）｜户均持股数（股) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-30 | 6.49% | 83074 -5006 | -5.68% | 8.06 ...

Market Overview - The coke sector experienced a decline of 3.8% on August 27, with Antai Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800.35, down 1.76%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12295.07, down 1.43% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Meijin Energy (000723) closed at 4.60, down 2.95%, with a trading volume of 708,700 shares and a turnover of 331 million yuan [1] - Yunmei Energy (600792) closed at 3.78, down 3.32%, with a trading volume of 239,100 shares and a turnover of 91.52 million yuan [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 3.59, down 4.01%, with a trading volume of 1,068,700 shares and a turnover of 392 million yuan [1] - Baotailong (601011) closed at 2.86, down 4.03%, with a trading volume of 688,500 shares and a turnover of 201 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 3.53, down 4.34%, with a trading volume of 403,900 shares and a turnover of 146 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) closed at 3.98, down 4.56%, with a trading volume of 470,400 shares and a turnover of 191 million yuan [1] - Antai Group (600408) closed at 2.22, down 5.93%, with a trading volume of 426,100 shares and a turnover of 96.75 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The coke sector saw a net outflow of 90.94 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 87.14 million yuan [1] - The detailed fund flow for individual stocks indicates that: - Yunmei Energy had a main fund net inflow of 34,900 yuan, with a retail net inflow of 399,340 yuan [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal experienced a main fund net outflow of 622,200 yuan, with a retail net outflow of 415,860 yuan [2] - Antai Group had a main fund net outflow of 3,351,700 yuan, with a retail net inflow of 42,340 yuan [2] - Shaanxi Black Cat faced a main fund net outflow of 17,784,900 yuan, but a retail net inflow of 2,071,290 yuan [2] - Yunwei Co. had a main fund net outflow of 17,914,100 yuan, with a retail net inflow of 1,996,540 yuan [2] - Baotailong saw a main fund net outflow of 22,064,000 yuan, but a retail net inflow of 2,306,090 yuan [2] - Meijin Energy had a main fund net outflow of 29,241,800 yuan, with a retail net inflow of 2,314,300 yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Layout of the bottom - position is as important as flexible offense. A basket of "high - dividend × low - volatility" dividend assets can provide a natural "shock absorber" for the portfolio, and the combination can withstand extreme market conditions by suppressing volatility with stable cash flows and low β and then capturing market mismatches with the remaining positions [3]. - To amplify returns in the dividend pool, a dual - screening approach is more reliable than relying solely on the "high - dividend" indicator. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility, earnings quality, or institutional holdings can eliminate potential risks and further increase the returns of general dividend assets [3]. - On top of the dividend bottom - position, there are systematic excess opportunities from the left - to - right shift of the industrial cycle. Priority should be given to companies with stable cash flows despite pressured profits. Industries such as cement, silicone, and phosphate chemicals are currently in the preferred range, while the photovoltaic chain is still in a state of "double losses in profit and cash flow". The overall allocation strategy involves initially establishing an observation position, increasing the position after confirming the leading indicators of the profit inflection point, and exiting when profits weaken again or the gross margin is inverted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottom - Position Allocation Necessity: "Pure Left" and "Pure Right" Are Not Desirable - In a market with an increasing industry rotation center, it is crucial to build a long - term core position first. A 15 - year quarterly rotation experiment on 31 Shenwan primary industries shows that both extreme left - side bottom - fishing and extreme right - side chasing result in single - digit annualized returns and significant drawdowns. In contrast, a dividend portfolio characterized by "high - dividend × low - volatility" can provide double - digit annualized returns and keep drawdowns within an acceptable range. Therefore, increasing the exposure of "high - dividend + low - β" in the bottom - position can provide a safety cushion for the portfolio [7]. - Dividend assets are the optimal core bottom - position in terms of return - to - drawdown. Historical stress tests show that the dividend index has shallower drawdowns, a stable 3 - year rolling Sharpe ratio, and does not require market timing in the long - term perspective. It also has higher probabilities of achieving positive returns in different holding periods compared to most broad - based and style indices [10][12][21]. 3.2 Dividend Yield Single - Factor Trap - Selecting stocks based solely on the "high - dividend" factor often leads to choosing high - volatility stocks with limited return increases and large drawdowns. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility or earnings quality can improve the overall cost - effectiveness. Statistical regression shows that the dividend yield alone has a weak explanatory power for future returns [29]. - Several case studies illustrate different types of "false high - dividend" traps. For example, some companies rely on one - time gains to support high dividends, some have high dividends due to falling stock prices rather than improved profitability, and some have high dividends at the peak of the business cycle or due to high leverage. To avoid these traps, specific financial and operational criteria need to be set [37][40][44]. 3.3 High - Dividend Smart - Beta's Distortion Risk - Modified dividend indices such as "Dividend Quality" and "Dividend Potential" have larger fluctuations and deeper drawdowns than the CSI Dividend Index. Their style drift and uncontrolled risk exposure lead to higher volatility, especially in bear markets. The main reasons are their high - concentration weighting, high - valuation requirements, and frequent chasing of market highs [60][64]. - The CSI Dividend Index selects 100 stocks based on a three - year dividend yield with a diversified weighting, while the Dividend Quality and Dividend Potential indices select 50 stocks by adding factors such as ROE and EPS growth, with a more concentrated and high - chasing weighting. As a result, they are more likely to suffer from double - kills of earnings and valuation when the market weakens [64]. 3.4 Potential Ways to Enhance Dividend Low - Volatility - **Dividend + Pricing Power Approach**: Traditional high - dividend indices have several drawbacks, including style drift, inclusion of high - risk high - dividend stocks, and right - side trading characteristics. A comprehensive scoring system based on pricing power, price - to - earnings ratio, and stability can be used to select the top 20 stocks for a portfolio. A ten - year back - test shows that this combination has better performance in terms of cumulative return, annualized return, and drawdown control compared to the CSI Dividend Index [83][84]. - **Considering Institutional Participation Rate**: Incorporating institutional holdings into high - dividend screening reveals that stocks with high institutional participation (≥20%) from stable - cash - flow industries have better risk - return profiles, including higher cumulative returns, greater upside potential, and controlled drawdowns. In contrast, stocks with low institutional participation (<20%) from cyclical industries perform less well. Therefore, combining high - dividends with institutional recognition can build a safer and more sustainable dividend portfolio [89]. 3.5 Bottom - Position Is Not Just Dividends: Quality Low - Volatility and Cash Cows - The "quality + low - volatility" dual - screened bottom - position established in June 2020 can achieve a balance between offense and defense. By filtering out high - leverage and low - resilience companies and compressing risk thresholds, it has achieved a five - year rolling net value increase of about 1.6 times, with stable single - digit annualized returns and significantly reduced volatility and drawdowns compared to ordinary low - volatility strategies [94]. - The long - term returns of dividend assets mainly come from stable dividends and profits rather than valuation increases. From 2014 - 2025, the annualized total returns of Dividend Low - Volatility and CSI Dividend after reinvestment were 13.9% and 13.2% respectively, with dividend contributions exceeding 9 percentage points and accounting for over 70% of the total returns [98]. - The cash - cow enhancement framework uses six dimensions to examine potential risks in high - dividend portfolios and provides corresponding enhancement measures. These measures include equal - weighting industries and quality sorting to address concentration risks, using free - cash - flow and growth thresholds to eliminate "high - dividend traps", and implementing valuation gates and hedging strategies to manage valuation risks [108]. 3.6 Industrial Cycle Reversal: From Left to Right - At the inflection point of the industrial cycle, multi - dimensional indicators such as fundamentals, inventory, price, valuation, and funds often show concurrent inflection points. The consistency in the industry dimension, from raw material prices to mid - stream production and downstream demand, can improve the reliability of inflection - point signals. For example, the anti - involution market rhythm is often in line with this "consistency chain" [111][112]. - At the company level, by dividing samples into leading, mid - stream, and tail companies, monitoring the second - order derivatives of 10 key indicators can help identify the acceleration of marginal improvements in demand, pricing, or cash flows. When at least three indicators in any two of the three sample layers show positive second - order derivatives, it can be regarded as a company - level consistency inflection point [114]. - The industrial cycle reversal framework uses a "three - light" approach to determine investment opportunities. When the three conditions of valuation repair, profit - cash flow resonance improvement, and completion of inventory reduction and demand expansion are met simultaneously, it indicates a three - dimensional resonance of supply - demand, profit, and sentiment, and investors can make aggressive investments. Otherwise, they should continue to hold the dividend bottom - position [115].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices rose again, with the spread between the 10 - 1 contract of rebar falling and that of hot - rolled coil strengthening. The spread between coil and rebar is expected to decline from its high. The overall apparent demand showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding last week but remained at an off - season level. Steel is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions, with reference levels of 3140 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3380 yuan for rebar [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton. The 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased [1] - **Cost and Profit**: Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions changed. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased from 117 to - 41 [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The output of five major steel products was 878.1 million tons, an increase of 6.4 million tons (0.7%) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased from 1416.0 million tons to 1441.0 million tons, a rise of 25.1 million tons (1.8%) [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased from 9.4 to 11.1, a rise of 1.7 (18.3%). The apparent demand of five major steel products increased from 831.0 million tons to 853.0 million tons, a rise of 22.0 million tons (2.6%) [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 contract of iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. The global shipment volume of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. The short - term demand is bearish, but after the military parade, the resumption of steel mills' production will support raw materials. It is recommended to switch to long positions on dips and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 01 contract for different powders also changed significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 23.9 to 40.1, a rise of 16.3 (68.3%) [3] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2393.3 million tons, a decrease of 83.3 million tons (- 3.4%); the global weekly shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.8 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 325.7 million tons, a decrease of 8.9 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased from 13856.40 million tons to 13845.20 million tons, a decrease of 11.2 million tons (- 0.1%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased from 9136.4 million tons to 9065.5 million tons, a decrease of 70.9 million tons (- 0.8%) [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures showed a strong rebound, and the coking coal futures also rebounded strongly. The seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. The supply and demand of coke are expected to be tight, and the downstream steel mills still have restocking needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke on dips and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, due to factors such as limited production expectations, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal on dips and the same arbitrage strategy [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts and their spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1679 yuan/ton to 1736 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.4%; the 09 - 01 spread of coke decreased from - 52 to - 84 [5] - **Supply**: The weekly output of coke and coking coal showed different trends. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.1%); the weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines was 860.4 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons (0.4%) [5] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The coking plants' demand for coking coal increased slightly [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke and coking coal in different sectors changed. The total coke inventory increased from 887.4 million tons to 888.6 million tons, a rise of 1.2 million tons (0.1%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased from 976.9 million tons to 966.4 million tons, a decrease of 10.5 million tons (- 1.1%) [5]