Key Insights - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,174 billion USD, indicating a stable economic environment [1] - The convertible bond market showed a 3.3% increase in June, following a 4.7% rise in the stock market, driven by policy stimuli and geopolitical factors [2][3] - The life sciences upstream sector is experiencing a turning point, with a projected revenue growth of 10.75% year-on-year in 2024, driven by stable investment and domestic substitution trends [7][8] - The North Exchange is expected to maintain high trading activity and market attention, with a focus on new industries such as artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace for the second half of 2025 [12][17] Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market's valuation is not overly high, with structural opportunities still available, particularly in sectors showing improved economic conditions such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, agriculture, and computing [4][3] - The market is transitioning from a policy-driven focus to a fundamental pricing approach, with expectations of a 5% economic growth target being met [3][4] - Recommended convertible bonds for July include Guotou Convertible Bond, Ran 23 Convertible Bond, and others, indicating a strategic focus on sectors benefiting from policy support [4] Life Sciences Upstream Sector - The life sciences upstream sector is characterized by high specialization and significant barriers to entry, with major companies expanding and exploring international markets [7][8] - The sector is poised for growth due to the booming demand for innovative drugs, with the Chinese antibody drug market expected to reach 510.8 billion RMB by 2030 [8] - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming more prevalent, with domestic companies looking to replicate the growth paths of global giants, enhancing industry concentration and growth potential [9][10] North Exchange - The North Exchange's trading activity has slightly decreased, with an average daily turnover of approximately 279.83 billion RMB, but it remains higher than other markets [13] - The North Exchange's overall price-to-earnings ratio is around 50.4 times, indicating a slight decline but still higher than other boards, with the electronics sector showing the highest ratios [14] - The North Exchange is optimizing its evaluation system to support the high-quality development of small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on innovation and market ecology improvement [15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 7 - 8 months have obvious seasonal suppression on the equity market, but there is usually an opportunity for a market rally in the second half of the year. It is recommended to pay attention to upstream and growth sectors in July [1][9]. - The valuation of convertible bonds is currently at a high level, with limited upside potential. It is advisable to focus on rotational opportunities in upstream and growth sectors and adopt a trading - based strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 7 - Month Equity Calendar Effect: Emphasize Upstream and Growth - Historically, A - shares usually have two overall market opportunities a year, in February - March and October - November respectively. The market is generally suppressed from July to August due to the disclosure of mid - year reports. It is expected that the wide - based index will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the second overall opportunity in the second half of the year after the mid - year report disclosure [1][9]. - In July, upstream industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and basic chemicals have positive returns, with a winning rate of no less than 50% in the past 10 years. Growth sectors represented by electronics, military, and new energy also have high returns and winning rates [1][9]. - Seasonal factors in production and consumption in July are favorable for upstream industries. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches in the second half of the year and Q3 is the production peak season, the prices of industrial products, metals, and energy - chemical products have generally shown an upward trend in the past 20 years. Additionally, the strengthening of anti - involution policies may lead to price increases in upstream products [2][13]. 3.2 Valuation Outlook: Reaching the Previous High, Suggesting Prudence and Neutrality - As of last Friday, the premium rate per 100 yuan of convertible bonds reached over 25%, approaching the previous highs in October 2024 and March 2025. To break through the previous high, more factual changes are needed. From the perspective of the comparison between convertible bonds and the implied volatility of valuation options, convertible bonds are currently overvalued. It is recommended to focus on rotational opportunities in upstream and growth sectors, and the current is not a good time for allocation [3]. - In June, the convertible bond valuation showed different trends. The convertible bond style shifted to a more conservative one, with the index elasticity and trading volume lower than that of the A - share market. The trading concentration of technology - sector convertible bonds decreased, showing a shift towards cyclical and financial sectors [25]. 3.3 Key Focused Convertible Bonds - From June 4th to July 3rd, the convertible bond portfolio in June had a return of 1.80%, underperforming the benchmark index by 1.98 pct. Rongtai, Mingli, and Zhanggu had relatively high returns, while Huitong had a decline due to unexpected early redemption [33]. - The "Huachuang Convertible Bond" July key - focused portfolio has been adjusted to include Xingqiu, Mingli, Fenggong, Liqun, Rongtai, Zhanggu, Qingnong, Xingye, Huayi, Yifeng, Ziyin, and Zhongyin. The portfolio's bond - selection strategy combines top - down and bottom - up approaches, and the bond - selection requirements include specific criteria for holdings, ratings, and liquidity [36][40][41]. 3.4 Market Review: Slight Increase in Convertible Bonds and Underlying Stocks, Significant Increase in Valuation - In June, the underlying stock market and the convertible bond market both rose. As of June 27th, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Wind All - A Index, and CSI Convertible Bond Index all increased, with the overall valuation rising by 2.04 pct. Small - cap stocks outperformed, and technology and financial sectors were relatively strong [42]. - In terms of industry performance, most sectors of the underlying stocks and convertible bonds rose in June. The hot concepts mainly included stablecoins, circuit boards, and solid - state batteries. The market hotspots were concentrated in the financial real - estate and TMT sectors [46]. - The trading volume of both the convertible bond and equity markets increased in June. The margin trading balance also recovered rapidly, and most industries received net margin purchases [51][53]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation: Increase in New Convertible Bond Supply Month - on - Month, Slowdown in Pre - plan Pace - In June, 6 new convertible bonds were issued, and the Hengshuai Convertible Bond was listed. The online subscription for new convertible bonds heated up, with an average effective subscription amount of 7.25 trillion yuan and an online winning rate of 0.00186595%. The scale of convertible bonds awaiting issuance exceeded 35 billion yuan, and the pre - plan pace slowed down [58][59][64]. - In June, 3 convertible bonds announced downward revisions, 5 announced early redemptions, and many others announced non - redemptions or expected to meet redemption conditions [71][76]. - In May, the holders of convertible bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges were cautious, and the overall scale continued to decrease. Public funds reduced their holdings, enterprise annuities increased their holdings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and reduced them on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, securities company self - operations reduced their holdings, and asset management and collective wealth management increased their holdings [79][83][86].

Group 1 - Shenzhen Stock Exchange launched five new ChiNext thematic indices focusing on battery, medical, and computing infrastructure sectors, selecting 50 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity as sample stocks [1] - The exchange is planning reforms for the ChiNext market, aiming to support high-quality innovative companies in issuing shares, enhancing financing flexibility, and promoting mergers and acquisitions [1] - A new listing standard has been introduced for unprofitable innovative companies, requiring a market capitalization of 5 billion and revenue of 300 million, to facilitate financing for high-tech enterprises [1] Group 2 - According to Founder Securities, the relative PE of the ChiNext Index compared to the CSI 300 Index is at a historical 5.9% percentile, indicating relatively high cost-effectiveness [2] - The small-cap and volume-price trading factors are recovering, with machine learning strategies performing well and enhanced index products yielding excess returns [2] - In the computing sector, open-source models are driving AI democratization, with clear demand for computing infrastructure and accelerated domestic ASIC self-research [2]

"分析师转行做教培"刷屏 近日，中泰证券研究所前员工周寒阳的离职感言及去向引发行业热议。在感谢公司栽培并告别同事后，他透 露："我已转行从事高中科创教培（涵盖实验设计、数据获取、科研报告写作及自主招生面试辅导等全流程服 务）。江湖路远，愿各自珍重。" 值得一提的是，由于该分析师离职前研究的是电新行业，也有一些市场言论认为，"电新分析师转行做教培"是 电新板块底部的信号。不过，记者了解到，该人士转行主要是个人选择。 记者注意到，近年来，不少券商发力研究业务，在研究团队方面对于总量、人工智能、计算机、传媒、金工等 行业的配置较多。一位分析师告诉记者，近几年机构持仓大头是科技，因此各个研究所对人工智能、机械等科 技行业的人员增配较多。 "没有冷门的行业，只有不会策划的分析师。"一家中型券商研究所所长告诉券商中国记者，一般来说强势行业 确实会进行超配，但每个行业都有自身的周期，研究所也习惯了这种周期波动，一般不会刻意因此对各个行业 的研究力量进行调整。 "再见领导同事，我要转战教培行业了！"近日，一位中泰证券研究所前员工的离职感言在业内刷屏。 券商中国记者注意到，证券行业从业人数在2023年见顶后进入持续减员通道。最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Shanghai Composite Index in breaking through the 3400-point barrier, highlighting the current high valuation levels and the lack of supportive policies or improved earnings expectations as key obstacles [4][10]. Valuation Analysis - The static PE ratio of the Wind All A (excluding financials) is currently at 31.51 times, which is at the 49th percentile since 2000, the 54th percentile over the past decade, and the 100th percentile over the last three years, indicating that the market is nearing its high tolerance for valuations [6][10]. - Compared to global equity markets, the valuation of Wind All A (excluding financials) is relatively high, with the Nasdaq at 44 times, S&P 500 (excluding financials) at approximately 30 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 21 times, suggesting that A-shares lack a solid foundation to maintain levels above 3400 points [9][10]. Market Conditions - The article emphasizes that without new incremental policy support or significant improvements in earnings expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain levels above 3400 points. Current trade environment pressures limit the feasibility of large-scale policy stimulus [10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a continuous decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3% in May, indicating that A-share earnings are unlikely to improve in the near term [10]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience volatility, with a higher probability of downward movement. The focus will likely shift towards sectors with more predictable earnings, suggesting a strategy of seeking certainty and avoiding underperforming stocks [10][11]. - In the absence of significant changes in policies or PPI, a notable rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points would be seen as a signal to reduce positions rather than increase them [11]. Structural Opportunities - The article outlines different market styles based on historical data since 2015, indicating that stable styles (e.g., utilities, consumer staples) are favored during external risks or tightening policies, while cyclical styles (e.g., materials, industrials) thrive in improving economic conditions [13][14]. - Growth styles (e.g., technology, emerging industries) depend on upward industry trends, policy support, and liquidity, while consumer styles are closely tied to economic recovery and consumer confidence [15][16]. - Currently, the market environment is characterized by weak earnings and low capital inflows, which is unfavorable for cyclical, growth, and consumer styles, but relatively beneficial for stable and financial styles [19]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on sectors with potential marginal improvements such as petrochemicals, brokerages, non-ferrous metals, military, and electric power, as well as industries aligned with policy and industry trends like AI applications, gaming, communication, and semiconductors [19].

Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Personal investor sentiment continues to decline, while institutional investor sentiment shows a fluctuating upward trend, indicating a potential market consolidation phase[1] - Institutional sentiment is on the verge of turning positive, which could trigger an upward market signal if it continues to recover[1] Group 2: Industry Sentiment - Certain industries, including coal, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery, are showing signs of potential short-term upward movement[1] - Sectors such as power and utilities, steel, and transportation are expected to weaken in the short term, while textiles and agriculture may see slight improvements[1] Group 3: Market Participation - The number of market participants has increased notably in sectors like electric power, military, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors such as home appliances and agriculture have seen a decline in participants[2] - Personal investors are increasingly focusing on transportation, communication, and utilities, with relative attention in these sectors rising significantly[2] Group 4: Market Independence - The correlation between A-shares and other major asset classes has continued to decline, indicating that A-shares are currently in a relatively independent market phase[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market may benefit from the expected increase in risk appetite, and the bond market yield will fluctuate at a low level. A - shares may benefit from the increase in risk appetite due to potential policy support and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks. The bond market price has fully factored in the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations, and the bond yield may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Gold still has a long - term positive outlook, but short - term volatility may increase [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by - 0.27%, - 0.47%, and - 0.16% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changing by - 2.46%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.61%, and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 2.63% [2]. - A - shares generally rose. The wind All - A Index rose 2.32%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 2.13%, 2.00%, 1.60%, 2.22%, 3.58%, and 5.65% respectively. Growth and blue - chip stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both rose [3]. - All 30 CITIC industries rose. Industries with relatively large increases included national defense and military industry, communication, banking, machinery, new energy, and comprehensive, with weekly increases of more than 3.5% [4]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the yield of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years decreased, and the yield of those with a maturity of 10 years and above increased, making the yield curve steeper. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.06% compared to April 30, 2025 [5]. - The capital price decreased, and the bond market leverage level increased. As of May 9, 2025, R007 was 1.5805%, down 25.91 BP from April 30, 2025, and DR007 was 1.5409%, down 25.77 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan in the past week. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 4.97 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025, to 6.32 trillion yuan on May 9, 2025 [6]. - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the price of US treasury bonds fell, and the yield curve shifted upward as a whole. As of May 9, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond rose 4 BP to 4.37% compared to May 2, 2025 [7]. Foreign Exchange Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.40% to 7.2402, and the US dollar against the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell 0.24% to 7.2461 [8]. Commodity Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the spot price of London gold rose 2.30% to $3324.55 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.14% to $3326.30 per ounce [9]. Foreign Trade - From January to April, China's cumulative export increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 0.6% higher than that in the first three months. Although the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US decreased from 4.5% in January - March to - 2.5% in January - April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of exports to other countries and regions such as ASEAN, the EU, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea increased. The cumulative year - on - year import decreased by 5.2%, 1.8% higher than that in the first three months. The trade surplus in January - April was $368.76 billion, an increase of $113.808 billion year - on - year [10].

Market Performance - Major stock indices in China experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.82% to 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.72% to 10301.16 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 2.63% to 2064.71 points, alongside a total trading volume of 1341 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 120 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Trade Relations and Sector Impact - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to significantly lower bilateral tariff levels, which is expected to benefit sectors such as electric new energy and export chains, particularly in areas like the power battery supply chain and photovoltaic inverters [2][5] - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to restore business for companies exporting to the US, especially those in the electric new energy sector, which had been adversely affected by previous tariff policies [2] PCB Demand and AI Sector - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to alleviate pressure on the demand forecast for AI-related PCBs, with positive feedback from downstream ODM manufacturers indicating resilience in PCB demand [3] Gas Turbine Market - The global gas turbine market is entering an upcycle, driven by increased demand for natural gas power generation and the expansion of AIDC in North America, leading to a surge in orders for core components from Chinese manufacturers [4] Strategic Mineral Export Control - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, with a coordinated action plan involving multiple departments to prevent illegal outflows [6] Financial Support for Nansha Development - A joint opinion from several financial regulatory bodies emphasizes increased financial support for the development of Nansha, aiming to enhance its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and support high-end manufacturing industries [7] Brain-Computer Interface Industry Development - Sichuan province has launched an action plan to cultivate the brain-computer interface and human-computer interaction industries, targeting significant breakthroughs and the establishment of a robust industrial ecosystem by 2027 [8] Manus Product Launch - The AI Agent product Manus has announced its open access to all users, introducing a free task execution model and plans for a subscription service to accelerate commercialization [9]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 8 日 A 股 2024 年年报及 2025 年 一季报分析 科技制造仍是关注重点 全 A 非金融景气修复有亮点，但过程仍较为坎坷。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 ◼ 2024 年年报业绩未能改善，2025 年一季报业绩明显改善，两期营收改善 偏慢。全部 A 股/非金融 2024 年报累计归母净利润（下或简称业绩/净利 润）同比增速分别为-2.3%/ -12.9%，较 2024Q3（-0.5%/ -7.2%）下降-1.8/- 5.7Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 2025Q1 累计业绩同比增速分别为 3.6%/4.2%， 较 2024 年年报（-2.3%/-12.9%）大幅提升 5.8/17.1Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market outlook post "May Day" is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to likely "catch up" after the holiday [1] - The focus for investment allocation is on technology and dividend themes, which are seen as key areas of interest among analysts [1] - In the context of increasing global geopolitical tensions, dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, A-share companies showed improved overall profitability in Q1, but there is significant sectoral divergence [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in mitigating economic pressures from the US-China trade war [2] - May presents opportunities primarily in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, with a recommendation to focus on TMT sectors and potential growth areas in consumer demand [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities highlights that technology and consumption may be the main focus for investment in May, with historical trends showing strong performance in these sectors during this period [3] - The report notes that the "May Day" holiday saw a surge in travel and consumption, benefiting sectors like social services and food and beverage [3] - There is an expectation for technology to yield excess returns in May, driven by industry trends and policy support [3] Group 4 - The report suggests that sectors with strong Q1 performance are likely to outperform in May, including computing, robotics, media, telecommunications, electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power [4] - It also recommends low-cost dividend sectors such as large financials and electric power for investment during this period [4] Group 5 - CITIC Construction emphasizes a focus on technology growth and service consumption in the short term, with a market outlook indicating a potential shift towards growth stocks [5] - The report suggests a rotational market pattern characterized by "growth-risk-avoidance-consumption" phases [5] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, machinery, computing, automotive, home appliances, agriculture, retail, beauty care, and social services [5]