Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is characterized by a seasonal pattern in the bond market, with a higher probability of interest rate declines from December to early February, followed by potential adjustments in late January or mid-February to March or late April [1][3][4] - The bond market is not in a bear market but is in a mid-bull market position, influenced by weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, despite increased volatility due to static yield insufficiency and dynamic duration issues [1][5][6] Economic Conditions - Domestic fundamentals have weakened, with retail sales and real estate investment data declining, while industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value-added growing by 5.7% year-on-year [1][10] - The GDP growth rate is approximately 4.9%, indicating economic pressure and the need for future policy adjustments [1][10] - Manufacturing investment has significantly declined due to tariffs and anti-involution policies, leading companies to focus more on cash flow and overseas production [1][12] Market Dynamics - The equity market has performed strongly since July, while the bond market has shown relative weakness, indicating a complex relationship rather than a simple "stock-bond seesaw" phenomenon [2][7] - The macroeconomic situation in 2025 resembles a combination of 2019 and 2020, with low coupon rates posing significant challenges [6][9] Policy Implications - The central bank's focus has shifted from total credit volume to maintaining the health and safety of the banking system, making interest rate cuts more challenging [16] - There is an expectation of increased fiscal or quasi-fiscal policy measures around late October, particularly in response to rising economic pressures [15][20] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on cyclical sectors such as non-bank financials, metals, and coal, while also monitoring the domestic capital expenditure (CAPEX) trends in the third quarter [19] - Caution is advised in sectors with poor performance and no signs of recovery, with a preference for sectors showing positive momentum [19] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market is experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, particularly in durable goods, while service consumption remains resilient, with a 5.8% year-on-year growth in the service production index for July [10][14] - The shift in policy focus from goods to services is evident, as the government aims to support service consumption amid declining goods sales [13][14] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain interest rates below 2%, with significant resistance anticipated at the 1.5% level based on historical trends from the U.S. and Japan [28][29] - The current macroeconomic environment suggests that while there may be fluctuations, a significant downturn in the bond market is not expected [28][29] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious yet optimistic, with a focus on structural policies aimed at enhancing domestic demand and addressing demographic challenges [20][25]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment significantly impacts the Hong Kong stock market, with global economic growth directly affecting trade and finance in Hong Kong [1] - A rising global economy can lead to increased market demand, benefiting companies' revenues and profits, thus driving the overall stock market upward [1] - Local economic policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, are crucial variables influencing the stock market [1] Group 2: Industry Development Trends - Different industries exhibit varying performances in the Hong Kong stock market, making it essential for investors to follow industry trends [2] - The emerging technology sector has gained prominence, with innovative companies attracting significant attention due to their growth potential [2] - Traditional industries, such as resources and manufacturing, face constraints from market demand changes and cost fluctuations [2] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - A company's financial health is a core aspect of its fundamentals, requiring analysis of balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements [2] - Stable revenue growth, reasonable debt levels, and strong cash flow indicate good operational health and resilience [2] - Governance structures are also important, as effective governance ensures sound decision-making and protects shareholder interests [2] Group 4: Market Valuation Levels - Accurate assessment of market valuation is critical for determining investment value, with common metrics including Price-to-Earnings (PE) and Price-to-Book (PB) ratios [3] - Comparing current valuation metrics with historical data and peer markets helps investors identify whether the market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued [3] - Currency exchange rates, particularly the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, can significantly influence investment returns [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.334%, 4.737%, 3.447% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.033 (Italy) to 0.041 (UK), weekly changes from - 0.004 (Japan) to 0.173 (UK), monthly changes from - 0.126 (Switzerland) to 0.155 (France), and annual changes from - 0.274 (Japan) to 0.760 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740%, 3.959%, 1.956% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.024 (Australia) to 0.070 (US), weekly changes from - 0.200 (US) to 0.186 (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.703 (Italy) to 0.553 (Japan), and annual changes showed various trends [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: On August 18, 2025, the US dollar - to - emerging - economy currency exchange rates such as South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. had different values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.69% (Russian ruble) to 0.65% (South African rand), weekly changes from - 2.35% (South African rand) to 0.38% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 8.22% (Thai baht) to 0.77% (South Korean won), and annual changes also varied [2]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 18, 2025, major global stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had different closing values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.50% (Mexican index) to 0.21% (Nasdaq), weekly changes from - 0.18% (UK index) to 8.70% (Spanish index), monthly changes from 8.78% (Mexican index) to 44.46% (Spanish index), and annual changes also showed different trends [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes in credit bond indices ranged from - 0.08% to 0.08%, weekly changes from - 0.06% to 0.56%, monthly changes from - 0.13% to 2.43%, and annual changes from 4.84% to 15.88% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3728.03, 4239.41, 2838.87, 2606.20, and 6668.17 respectively, with daily changes of 0.85%, 0.88%, 0.21%, 2.84%, and 1.52% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.54, 11.56, 31.94, 27.34, and 20.08 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.08, 0.04, 0.37, 0.00, and - 0.04 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.68 and 2.22 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.04 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were 78.73, - 179.13, N/A, 216.70, and 110.91 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 306.54, - 333.88, N/A, 26.76, and 51.22 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 27641.63, 6353.66, 1621.58, 5485.68, and 8295.86 respectively, with环比 changes of 5195.51, 1166.79, 199.53, 1082.87, and 1773.47 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 1.61, 9.53, and - 60.17 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.04%, 0.34%, and - 0.90% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.015, 105.455, 107.865, and 105.380 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5037%, 1.5030%, and 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "seesaw" effect, with the bond market declining while the A-share market is rising, indicating a shift in capital flows [1][3] - The bond market previously thrived due to economic slowdown and stock market volatility, but recent policy measures have strengthened expectations for economic recovery, making stock market returns more attractive [3][4] - The recent rise in A-shares is driven by solid sectors such as consumer recovery and leading manufacturing companies, reflecting a fundamental-based investment approach rather than speculative trading [3][4] Group 2 - For long-term investors, understanding the overarching logic of economic recovery and corporate profit improvement is crucial for identifying mid-term opportunities in the stock market [4] - The bond market should not be dismissed entirely; quality bonds can still serve as a stabilizing asset in a diversified portfolio [5] - Investment strategies should adapt to market conditions, balancing between stocks for growth and bonds for stability, while avoiding impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and the ChiNext index led global gains with an increase of 8.6%[27] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.0% and the Nikkei 225 increased by 3.7%[27] - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares, outperformed developed markets, with the overall A-share market up by 3.0% last week[31] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4%, while the euro, pound, and yen appreciated by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively[5] - Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has decreased by 9.8%, with the euro, pound, and yen rising by 13%, 8.3%, and 6.4% respectively[5] - Commodity prices saw a general increase, with the South China and CRB commodity indices both rising by 0.5%[71] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The yield curve for Chinese bonds exhibited a "bear steepening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%[45] - The 10-year to 2-year yield spread for US bonds also expanded, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 4.33%[50] Group 4: Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium for the CSI 300 relative to 10-year government bonds decreased to 5.7%, down by 0.14% from the previous value[19] - The risk premium for the S&P 500 relative to 10-year US Treasuries fell to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.10%[19]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 General - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12% [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the effects of the implemented policies will further emerge [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of options on fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the registration of futures and options on offset printing paper [2] 2.2 Metals - The first - batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2025 have been issued to relevant companies, and it is expected that these indicators may no longer be publicly announced [5] - In July 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $3.2 billion, and the total assets under management reached a record high of $386 billion [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early August 2025, coal prices in China showed an all - round increase, with the price of coke rising by nearly 10% [7] - In July 2025, China's industrial raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; crude oil production was 18.12 million tons, an increase of 1.2%; natural gas production was 21.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.4% [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's Sinopec discovered a large - scale deep - seated shale gas field with newly proven geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters [10] - Indonesia expects its oil production to reach 610,000 barrels per day in 2026 and its natural gas production to reach 984,000 barrels per day [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On August 15, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 28.87 yuan/kg, a weekly decrease of 5.03% [12] - As of early August 2025, the purchase of summer wheat in China exceeded 80 million tons, faster than last year [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - This week, 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits will mature on Tuesday and Wednesday [13] - On August 15, the central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 116 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and optimizing the credit structure [14] - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was weak, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and most treasury bond futures closing down [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.90% to 475.25 points, with a trading volume of 103.1 billion yuan [20] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823, down 93 basis points from the previous trading day [23] - The US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, and most non - US currencies rose [23] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes that the central bank emphasizes promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and current credit delivery focuses more on quality [24] - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the economic data in July were slightly volatile, and the "fixed - income +" strategy is favored [24] 4. Stock Market News - As of August 15, 2025, 310 stocks had more than doubled in price this year, excluding new listings [28] - China Securities recommends focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and gaming [28] - As of August 15, 2025, 936 out of 1,785 funds established in 2021 had a net value above 1, accounting for 52.44% [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although most economic and financial data in July fell short of expectations, the market risk - appetite continued to rise, resulting in weak performance of treasury bonds and a steeper yield curve. The bear - steepening trend of the curve is expected to continue next week [15]. - The stock - bond assets are desensitized to the fundamentals. The rising equity market suppresses the bond market, and this pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The equity market's self - strengthening characteristic will likely lead to continued upward oscillations, putting pressure on long - term bond varieties [16]. - The capital market is relatively balanced, but there is limited room for further loosening in the short term. The capital market cannot effectively offset the negative impact of the rising equity assets, but it will make the upward range of short - term bond interest rates slightly smaller [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 11th to August 17th, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. Various factors such as the less - than - expected loosening of funds, stock market trends, and policy news affected the daily performance of treasury bond futures. As of August 15th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.346, 105.675, 108.325, and 117.660 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.024, - 0.145, - 0.285, and - 1.590 yuan compared to last weekend [13]. 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Next week, the market will be in a data and policy vacuum period. The capital market and the performance of the equity market will dominate the bond market trend. The bear - steepening of the curve is expected to continue. The fundamentals are favorable for the bond market, but the pattern of the rising equity market suppressing the bond market is hard to change in the short term [15][16]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 50 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 5556.92 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 3437.94 billion yuan, down 2528.17 billion yuan and 2521.04 billion yuan respectively from last week. 26 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 914.32 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 137.36 billion yuan, down 740.27 billion yuan and 965.84 billion yuan respectively from last week. 455 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 7760.30 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 1311.10 billion yuan, with a change of + 13.00 billion yuan and - 3075.70 billion yuan respectively from last week [23]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields rose. As of August 15th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.58%, 1.74%, and 2.04% respectively, up 0.22, 3.14, 5.02, and 7.70 basis points respectively from last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [27]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. As of August 15th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.346, 105.675, 108.325, and 117.660 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.024, - 0.145, - 0.285, and - 1.590 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 44773, 75807, 113721, and 174122 lots respectively, with changes of + 7747, + 10770, + 27453, and + 53719 lots respectively from last weekend. The open interests were 103646, 175683, 235249, and 152407 lots respectively, with changes of - 4559, - 9501, - 727, and - 1348 lots respectively from last weekend [35][38]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The capital market was generally loose, the market oscillated weakly, and the futures basis generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit interest rate was between 1.5% - 1.6%. The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy was relatively limited [42]. 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of August 15th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.038, + 0.005, + 0.100, and + 0.450 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.028, + 0.060, - 0.005, and + 0.080 yuan respectively from last weekend. The market sentiment of treasury bond futures was weak this week, and the inter - delivery spreads generally oscillated and widened. The T contract was an exception, and its inter - delivery spread mainly oscillated within a narrow range. The bond market is expected to remain weak, and the inter - delivery spreads are expected to continue to oscillate upward [43][44]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 7118 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 11267 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan. In addition, the central bank also conducted 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. As of August 15th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.49%, 1.48%, 1.40%, and 1.47% respectively, up 3.21, 3.94, 8.36, and 2.94 basis points respectively from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.15 trillion yuan, 0.04 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.82%, slightly lower than last week [48][51][53]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated weakly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose. As of August 15th, the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.8467 compared to last weekend's close. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 6 basis points from last weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 259.0 basis points [58]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of August 15th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3658.04, 6466.21, and 1687.68 points respectively, up 13.09, 28.42, and 9.95 points respectively from last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of August 15th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.05, 4.75, and 6.91 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.36, + 0.11, and - 0.13 yuan/kg respectively from last weekend [61]. 3.7 Investment Suggestions - In the short term, the sentiment in the bond market is weak, and traders should be cautious when betting on rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - hedging strategies, use T or TL for hedging in a strong stock market environment. Also, pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as 10Y - 1Y in the short - to - medium term, long 4TS and short T; long 3T and short TL in the long - term), and moderately pay attention to the strategy of widening the T09 - 12 spread [17][18][19][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. The report mainly shows the performance data of global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.286%, the UK was 4.639%. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differed among countries. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.051, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.167, and an annual change of 0.393 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on August 14, 2025, were as follows: the US was 3.720, the UK was 3.904. The changes in different time - spans were also provided, such as the US having a latest change of - 0.040, a weekly change of 0.000, a monthly change of - 0.160, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies on August 14, 2025, were presented, like 5.417 against the South African zar. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were given, e.g., the South African zar had a latest change of - 0.14%, a weekly change of - 2.32%, a monthly change of - 4.34% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 14, 2025, major economies' stock indices had different values. For example, the Dow Jones was 6468.540, the S&P 500 was 44911.260. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were also provided, such as the Dow Jones having a latest change of 0.03%, a weekly change of 2.03%, a monthly change of 23.44%, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The credit bond indices of different regions and types had various changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.28%, a weekly change of 0.05%, a monthly change of 1.74%, and an annual change of 4.89% [4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3666.44 with a - 0.46% change [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.42 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 interest rate) and their环比 changes of some indices were provided, such as the S&P 500 having a risk premium of - 0.64 with a - 0.05环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were shown. For example, the latest fund flow of A - shares was - 1980.11 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22792.09 with a 1282.72环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, and IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was - 9.51 with a - 0.23% magnitude [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.325 with a 0.01% change [6]. - The money market's capital interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.3518% with a - 12.00 BP daily change [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a clash between two contrasting narratives: expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and a steady global economic recovery [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Behavior and Expectations - Market behavior is characterized by contradictions, with a 6% implied probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, while the U.S. stock market has reached historical highs [2][4]. - The rise in the stock market is not solely driven by a few tech giants but shows broader recovery signs, particularly in small-cap stocks and consumer-related sectors [2][4]. - The current situation reflects a market that is hedging against potential economic downturn risks while simultaneously betting on recovery [4]. Group 2: Employment Report Impact - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to force investors to choose between the narratives of "rate cuts" and "recovery," potentially triggering significant capital rotation [5][8]. - A disappointing employment report could undermine the credibility of the recovery narrative, reinforcing expectations for substantial rate cuts and leading to a shift of funds back into bonds and tech stocks [8]. - Conversely, a strong employment report would likely diminish expectations for excessive rate cuts, resulting in a capital rotation from tech stocks to cyclical stocks more closely tied to economic recovery [8]. Group 3: Opportunities in Japan - The report highlights potential opportunities in the Japanese market, noting a strong correlation between the TOPIX index and the U.S. Russell 2000 index [9]. - If global economic recovery expectations prevail, Japanese equities may perform strongly, particularly as Japanese tech stocks are seen as having stronger cyclical attributes and relatively lower valuations compared to U.S. tech stocks [9]. - In this environment, the Japanese bond market may experience a "bear flattening" trend [9].