Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Barclays reports that despite recent negative events, the US dollar has remained resilient, with no significant decline observed since May, even amid weak economic data and challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will recover in the coming months, which may support the dollar's continued strength [1] Group 2: Oil and Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs states that a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the EU is unlikely due to reliance from certain member states like Hungary and Slovakia, and any potential ban would only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global supply [2] - Goldman Sachs expects emerging market stocks and currencies to rise by the end of the year, raising the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1,370 to 1,480 points, indicating a potential 10% upside [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts stable and ample market liquidity by year-end, with potential for a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond purchases [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the long video industry benefiting from favorable policies, which may enhance production capacity and efficiency for content creators [6][10] - CITIC Securities notes a recovery in the restaurant industry, with August seeing a year-on-year increase in dining revenue, suggesting structural opportunities for leading companies with strong compliance and quality [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - CITIC Securities indicates that the carbon fiber industry is in a recovery phase, with strong demand in wind energy and aerospace sectors, recommending attention to high-quality companies with international exposure [9] - China Galaxy Securities observes a slight increase in cement prices due to seasonal demand, with expectations for further price support from rising coal prices [11][12] - China Galaxy Securities also reports positive signals in panel procurement ahead of the overseas promotional season, indicating a potential peak in TV demand [13] Group 5: Electronic Materials - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of electronic cloth in the PCB-CCL supply chain, predicting a supply shortage for various specialty electronic cloth products until 2026, and recommends companies with rapid capacity expansion [14][15]

黄金方面：今年黄金已上涨超44%，各国央行持续增购黄金，欧洲央行的调查数据显示，全球央行黄金 储备总量达到3.6万吨。近三年来，全球央行每年增持黄金超过1000吨，是过去十年平均水平的两倍。 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话，芝加哥联储主席格尔斯比表示，美国经济面临经济增长放缓和劳动力市 场疲软的双重压力，在降息的问题上需要保持谨慎。利率可以逐步的下调，但通胀仍高于目标，不宜激 进地降息。 来源：智昇财论 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近日多位美联储官员发表讲话，一部分的表述鹰派，对通胀表示担 忧，降息持谨慎态度；另一部分则呼吁降息，美联储内部分歧加大。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，不断刷新历史高点。小时图来看，黄金昨日（9月23日）晚间开始回 落，在3755美元一线获得支撑，日内继续上涨的概率大，日内上方可以先看向高点3790美元一线。 原油方面：近期，欧洲正在加大对俄罗斯能源出口的制裁，包括出口价格的下调以及通过法案提前一年 结束购买俄罗斯能源。同时，特朗普敦促欧洲尽快地停止购买俄罗斯能源，并试图切断其主要资金来 源，对印度的采购行为征收50%的关税。 今天凌晨，美国至9月19日当周API原油库存数据，录得 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance - Major Asset Morning Report - Report Date: September 24, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on September 23, 2025, including 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, credit bond indices, stock index futures trading data, and government bond futures trading data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Asset Market Performance - Bond Yields - **10 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.107%, 4.679%, 3.563% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.041 (US) to 0.004 (France), with weekly changes from - 0.030 (Switzerland) to 0.078 (US), monthly changes from - 0.155 (US) to 0.065 (France), and annual changes from - 0.220 (Switzerland) to 0.912 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.570%, 3.950%, 2.019% respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.000 (US, Japan) to 0.011 (South Korea), with weekly changes from - 0.014 (China 1Y) to 0.058 (Japan), monthly changes from - 0.012 (UK) to 0.084 (Germany), and annual changes from - 0.432 (South Korea) to 0.544 (Japan) [2]. 3.2 Global Asset Market Performance - Exchange Rates - **US Dollar against Major Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On September 23, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.282, 17.245 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.99% (Brazil) to 0.24% (South Korean won), with weekly changes from - 0.54% (South African rand) to 1.09% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 2.75% (Brazil) to 0.05% (South Korean won), and annual changes from - 5.07% (Brazil) to 4.58% (South Korean won) [2]. - **Renminbi**: On September 23, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and the central parity rate were 7.113, 7.113, 7.106 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.07% respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.02%, 0.12%, 0.04% respectively, monthly changes of - 0.55%, - 0.56%, - 0.18% respectively, and annual changes of 0.23%, 0.18%, 0.04% respectively [2]. 3.3 Global Asset Market Performance - Stock Indices - **Major Economy Stock Indices**: On September 23, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6656.920, 46292.780, 22573.470 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.95% (NASDAQ) to 0.59% (Mexican stock index), with weekly changes from - 0.03% (Spanish stock index) to 1.21% (German DAX), monthly changes from - 2.24% (German DAX) to 7.29% (Mexican stock index), and annual changes from 5.45% (French CAC) to 31.35% (Spanish stock index) [2]. 3.4 Global Asset Market Performance - Credit Bond Indices - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. ranged from - 0.03% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.40% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index), with weekly changes from - 0.39% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.27% (euro - zone high - yield credit bond index), monthly changes from 0.26% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 1.61% (US investment - grade credit bond index), and annual changes from 3.66% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.30% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index) [2][3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3821.83, 4519.78, 2919.51 respectively, with changes of - 0.18%, - 0.06%, - 0.09% respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.01, 11.64, 34.17 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.07, - 0.25 respectively [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values of the fund flow of A - shares, the main board, and small - and medium - sized enterprise boards were - 1566.78, - 1050.60, etc., with 5 - day average values of - 1037.14, - 806.14, etc. respectively [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 24943.82, 6805.14, 1689.87 respectively, with环比 changes of 3728.99, 1173.65, 125.86 respectively [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 35.98, 5.49, - 240.11 respectively, with premiums/discounts of - 0.80%, 0.19%, - 3.34% respectively [4]. 3.6 Government Bond Futures Trading Data - **Government Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 107.715, 105.625, 107.385, 105.505 respectively, with changes of 0.13%, 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.09% respectively [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4619%, 1.5218%, 1.5620% respectively, with daily changes of - 7.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices, with significant movements in both risk and safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nvidia's substantial investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, pushing the three major U.S. stock indices to new highs, with the S&P 500 index hitting its 28th record high this year [2]. - COMEX gold prices closed at $3,775.10, marking the 36th record high of the year, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 43% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise of risk and safe-haven assets has led to skepticism among investors regarding whether the market has reached "perfect pricing" [5]. - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett suggests that the combination of tariff cuts, tax reductions, and interest rate cuts creates a "run-it-hot" policy environment, providing implicit guarantees for the economy and stock market [5]. - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the market has not yet reached a "perfect pricing" state, suggesting that concerns about future risks may actually provide room for potential market increases [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett proposes a five-point trading strategy to navigate the current market conditions, including investing directly in bubble assets, constructing a "barbell" portfolio, shorting corporate bonds of bubble companies, shorting U.S. bonds, and trading volatility [10][11]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a belief that "money is depreciating, and holding it is less favorable than consumption or investment," driving funds into risk assets [6]. Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a "perfect storm" for gold [13][14]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the high gold prices reflect market fear rather than extreme optimism, indicating a typical sign of investors seeking safe-haven assets [13]. - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, key market indicators have not shown signs of irrational exuberance, suggesting that the current gold market may be in a sustained bull phase rather than a bubble [14][15].

Report Information - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Global Asset Market Performance and Futures Trading Data Report Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.148, 4.712, 3.559 respectively. The latest changes were 0.020, - 0.002, 0.006; weekly changes were 0.109, 0.080, 0.081; monthly changes were - 0.128, 0.021, 0.050; and annual changes were 0.473, 0.931, 0.710 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.570, 3.976, 2.014 respectively. The latest changes were 0.050, 0.000, - 0.005; weekly changes were 0.050, 0.028, - 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.020, 0.038, 0.045; and annual changes were - 0.020, 0.161, - 0.206 [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On September 22, 2025, the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc. were 5.335, 17.326, 1391.250 respectively. The latest changes were 0.21%, - 0.10%, - 0.43%; weekly changes were 0.35%, - 0.19%, 0.36%; monthly changes were - 1.41%, - 1.60%, 0.05%; and annual changes were - 5.16%, - 2.67%, 3.67% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. were 6693.750, 46381.540, 22788.980 respectively. The latest changes were 0.44%, 0.14%, 0.70%; weekly changes were 1.19%, 1.09%, 1.97%; monthly changes were 3.95%, 2.43%, 6.25%; and annual changes were 19.62%, 12.86%, 29.71% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.16%, 0.06%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.53%, - 0.03%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.47%, 0.43%, etc.; and annual changes were 3.74%, 4.30%, etc. [3][4] Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3828.58, 4522.61, 2922.18 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.22%, 0.46%, 0.43%. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.97, 11.57, etc., with环比 changes of 0.01, - 0.01, etc. The latest values of capital flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were - 336.93, - 447.76, etc. The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 21214.83, 5631.49, etc., with环比 changes of - 2023.46, - 407.38, etc. The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 38.61, 0.82, - 211.93, with amplitudes of - 0.85%, 0.03%, - 2.93% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.975, 105.770, 107.620, 105.640 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4749%, 1.5262%, 1.5620% respectively, with daily changes of - 5.00, 1.00, 0.00 BP [6]

Core Insights - The bond market, traditionally viewed as a safe investment, has experienced significant turmoil following a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to rising yields in developed countries like the UK and Japan, which have reached levels not seen in over two decades [1][3][9] - Investors are losing confidence in bonds, which were once considered a "safe haven," prompting many to shift their investments to the stock market in search of better returns [3][11] - The rising inflation rates are outpacing fixed income returns, diminishing the attractiveness of bonds, particularly in countries like the UK where living costs are escalating [5][9] Market Dynamics - Financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies, are reallocating funds to higher-yielding investments, resulting in a dwindling amount of capital in the bond market [7] - Central banks are reportedly supporting the bond market while simultaneously increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift in strategy towards more tangible assets [7][11] - The demand for gold has surged among retail investors, with significant growth in gold ETFs, reflecting a broader trend of seeking alternative safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and silver [7][11] Economic Context - The underlying issues in the global economy are becoming apparent, with rising debt levels and fiscal deficits, particularly in the UK, raising concerns about the sustainability of current financial practices [9][11] - Investors are increasingly worried about the implications of rising interest rates on debt sustainability, leading to a reevaluation of traditional investment strategies [9][11] - The current market turmoil is prompting a reassessment of risk and investment approaches, as the reliability of conventional safe havens is called into question [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has officially announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, signaling the potential for one to two more cuts within the year, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle amidst a complex economic backdrop [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - The 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations, avoiding excessive panic that could arise from a more aggressive cut [4]. - The probability of another rate cut in October has surged to 97.4%, indicating a clear trend towards monetary easing [4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The current economic environment is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty, with the U.S. facing significant pressures from high interest rates [6][7]. - The U.S. banking sector is under strain due to rising interest expenses, which threaten financial stability [7]. - Economic growth is being hampered as borrowing becomes more difficult for businesses and consumer spending contracts, evidenced by low job growth and rising unemployment claims [7]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, raising concerns about long-term sustainability [7]. Group 3: Global Implications and Opportunities - The Fed's actions are expected to influence global capital flows, with potential benefits for emerging markets like China as capital returns [6][9]. - The easing of monetary policy may lead to improved employment conditions and reduced mortgage burdens in China, as the People's Bank of China is likely to follow suit with rate cuts [9]. - Historical data suggests that A-shares have a high probability of rising following Fed rate cuts, indicating potential investment opportunities in the Chinese market [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations for Investors - The current economic situation presents a chance for China to implement more aggressive monetary policies without fearing capital outflows [10]. - Future market movements may be influenced by sector-specific dynamics, with technology, new consumption, and green economy sectors likely to benefit first, while traditional overcapacity industries may face challenges [10][11].

Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, with projections indicating two more 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming meetings, targeting a rate of 3.4% for next year, which is less than investors expected [1] - Wall Street believes that the rate cuts will occur faster than the Fed's projections, with futures markets betting on a drop to 3% by the end of next year, significantly lower than the Fed's forecast [1] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for gold, with a strong likelihood of further increases, and short-term support at $3,695 [1] Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production since April, with cumulative increases exceeding the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day planned for November 2023, ending a year earlier than expected [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 4 million barrel increase in distillate inventories, raising concerns about oversupply [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with a potential drop below $61.50 leading to a target of $55 [2] Dollar Index - New Fed Governor Milan emphasized the Fed's independence and the need for objective economic data interpretation, suggesting a rate cut of over 100 basis points by year-end [3] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that a weak job market influenced the September rate cut decision, with further cuts likely in upcoming meetings [3] - The dollar index rebounded strongly post-Fed meeting, with resistance at the 97.80-98 range and key support at 97.23 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 has maintained a strong bullish trend with high volatility, indicating a high probability of breaking previous highs [4] Copper - Copper prices experienced a pullback from $4.65, finding support at $4.51, with a potential for further gains in the near term [5] - Short-term resistance is noted at $4.62, with a breakout potentially targeting the $4.65-$4.70 range, and support at $4.53 [5] Market Overview - The U.S. House passed a Republican funding bill, but it failed in the Senate, prompting Democratic leaders to seek discussions with Trump to avoid a government shutdown [6] - The EU Commission approved a new sanctions package against Russia, lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing a ban on Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, a year earlier than planned [6] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates, with two members proposing a 25 basis point hike and initiating an ETF selling plan with an annual reduction of 330 billion yen [7]

Group 1 - Asian stock markets rose on Monday, driven by the upward momentum in US stocks and easing concerns over the Bank of Japan's policy [1][6] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1% at 45,493.66 points, while the South Korean Seoul Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3,468.65 points [6] - The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.14% [6][13] Group 2 - The announcement by Trump regarding comprehensive reforms to the H-1B visa program has introduced new uncertainties for the global tech industry and companies reliant on foreign talent [1][10] - The proposed application fee of $100,000 could significantly impact US companies, particularly tech firms in California, and the Indian IT sector valued at $280 billion [10][11] Group 3 - Despite policy uncertainties, global stock markets remain at record levels, with discussions of a potential market bubble entering the dialogue [11] - Evercore ISI estimates a 25% chance of a bubble scenario where the S&P 500 could reach 9,000 points by the end of 2026, with a base case prediction of 7,750 points [11] - Bloomberg strategists believe that the profitability of tech companies is sufficient to absorb any sudden increases in visa fees [11] Group 4 - Gold prices continued to rise, with a 5-minute increase of $5.96 per ounce, reaching a new high of $3,714.37 per ounce [2][6] - Silver prices rose by 1.48% to $43.75 [5][6] - Cryptocurrency markets saw declines, with Bitcoin down over 2%, Ethereum nearly 7%, Dogecoin close to 11%, and Cardano over 8% [9][10]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]