宏观月报 / 2025.06.07 ■ 证券研究报告 陈兴 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 马乐怡 联系人 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《就业不断下修 -- 4 月美国非农数 2025-05-03 据解读》 2. 《就业暂时回暖 -- 3月美国非农数 据解读》 2025-04-05 3. 《就业市场广泛降温 -- 2月美国非 农数据解读》 2025-03-08 4. 《就业下修，薪资强劲——1月美国 非农数据解读》 2025-02-08 5. 《零售支撑就业改善 -- 2024 年 12 月美国非农数据解读》 2025-01-11 夜心观点 就业前值再下修,劳动参与率下降。5月新增非农就业人数下降至 13.9万 * 人,同时 3 月和 4 月合计下修 9.5 万人。今年以来,新增非农就业人数持续下 调,或意味着当前就业水平存在一定程度的高估。分行业来看,新增就业主要 来源从政府转向服务业。5月服务业新增就业较上月提升,政府裁员影响仍在 持续显现,联邦政府就业自1月以来已减少 5.9万人。而制造业更容易受到关 税政策的影响,新增就 ...

2025 年 6 月 7 日 2025 年 6 月 6 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 5 月非农数据：新增非农就业 13.9 万人，预期 13.0 万人，前值由 17.7 万人修正为 14.7 万人；5 月失业率 4.2%， 预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%；平均时薪同比升 3.9%，预期升 3.7%，前值由升 3.8% 修正至升 3.9%。 核心观点： 2025 年 5 月美国新增就业高于市场预期，缓和经济衰退担忧。5 月非农就业人 口增 13.9 万人，高于市场预期的增 13.0 万人，失业率也稳定在 4.2%，显示美 国就业市场相对稳健。其中，5 月底美国迎来阵亡将士纪念日，拉动出行需求， 休闲酒店业新增就业升至+4.8 万人，高于前值的+2.9 万人，是 5 月就业数据保 持稳定的主要贡献项。 从降息节奏看，5 月非农数据相对稳健，强化美联储观望态度，市场预期 6 月美 联储将不再降息，首次降息时间为 9 月。本次非农数据高于预期，失业率也未上 行，就业市场依旧稳健，短期内美联储或继续保持观望，等待经济转弱的更多信 号。非农数据公布后，10 年期国债收益率上行 11 个 bp 至 4.51%。市场预 ...

2025 年 6 月 7 日 总量研究 非农数据高于预期，美联储或更偏观望 ——2025 年 5 月美国非农数据点评兼光大宏观周报（2025-06-07） 要点 事件： 2025 年 6 月 6 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 5 月非农数据：新增非农就业 13.9 万人，预期 13.0 万人，前值由 17.7 万人修正为 14.7 万人；5 月失业率 4.2%， 预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%；平均时薪同比升 3.9%，预期升 3.7%，前值由升 3.8% 修正至升 3.9%。 核心观点： 2025 年 5 月美国新增就业高于市场预期，缓和经济衰退担忧。5 月非农就业人 口增 13.9 万人，高于市场预期的增 13.0 万人，失业率也稳定在 4.2%，显示美 国就业市场相对稳健。其中，5 月底美国迎来阵亡将士纪念日，拉动出行需求， 休闲酒店业新增就业升至+4.8 万人，高于前值的+2.9 万人，是 5 月就业数据保 持稳定的主要贡献项。 从降息节奏看，5 月非农数据相对稳健，强化美联储观望态度，市场预期 6 月美 联储将不再降息，首次降息时间为 9 月。本次非农数据高于预期，失业率也未上 行，就业市场依旧 ...

点击图片查看完整路演回放↑↑↑ 6月4日，我们非常荣幸地邀请到了深圳市日斗投资管理有限公司的创始人、董事长王文先生做客私募排排网直播间， 王总深入剖析了当前资本 市场的关键趋势， 从人工智能产业的突破性进展，到港股市场的投资机会，再到消费行业的价值挖掘， 为我们带来了一场精彩纷呈的投资盛 宴。王总特别提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这一新颖比喻引发了广泛共鸣。以下小编整理出来的直播精华片段： （ 点击图片 查看完整直播回放 ） Q：王总，您近期提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这个比喻非常新颖，能否请您解释一下，什么是"DeepSeek崛起时刻"？ （ 点 击蓝字查看完整直播回放 ） 王文：今年春节期间，市场对贸易战的担忧情绪较为浓厚。与此同时，Deepseek公司的崛起改变了市场对中国人工智能产业的认知。此前普遍 认为中国人工智能技术与美国存在十年以上的差距，数字鸿沟难以逾越 。但Deepseek的出现证明中美技术差距远比预期要小，这显著增强了市 场对中国科技实力的信心。 从供给端观察，在A股IPO节奏调整的背景下，港股市场承接了大量内地优质企业的上市需求，为投资者提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US May non-farm payroll report is anticipated to reveal significant cooling in the labor market, as indicated by a series of concerning leading indicators, particularly the disappointing ADP employment data [1][3]. Employment Data - The ADP report for May showed only 37,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 114,000, marking the lowest figure since March 2023 and the largest deviation from expectations in nearly three years [1][3]. - Job losses were noted in the goods-producing sector, with a decrease of 2,000 positions, while the service sector saw a modest increase of 36,000 jobs, primarily driven by leisure and hospitality (+38,000) and finance (+20,000) [3]. - Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) were particularly affected, losing 13,000 jobs, reflecting the direct impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on these vulnerable entities [3]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, exceeding expectations and reaching an eight-month high, with the four-week moving average also at its highest since November 2021, suggesting prolonged unemployment durations [4]. - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9 in May, indicating contraction in business activity for the first time since mid-2022, attributed to policy uncertainties affecting order delays [4]. Policy Uncertainty - Current policy uncertainties, especially regarding tariffs, are seen as a core factor contributing to the unclear economic outlook, with potential cost increases looming if negotiations fail [5]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for understanding structural changes in employment, particularly in the goods-producing sector, small businesses, and temporary jobs [5]. Market Reactions - Market consensus for new non-farm jobs has dropped to 130,000 from a previous 177,000, with some institutions predicting as low as 125,000 [7]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, but a rise to 4.3% or higher could signal recession risks [7]. - Average hourly wage growth is projected to slightly increase to 0.3%, raising concerns about a potential wage-inflation spiral due to high labor costs and declining productivity [7]. Short-term Volatility - The release of employment data is likely to cause significant volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, similar to the reactions following the ADP data release [8]. - Current interest rate futures reflect expectations of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with increased bets on a September rate cut if unemployment rises significantly [8].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing aims to establish its urban sub-center as an international benchmark city for green economy by 2027, focusing on enhancing green innovation capabilities, increasing the number of green enterprises, and boosting the output value of green industries [1][2]. Group 1: Green Innovation and Technology - The city plans to achieve an annual growth of approximately 20% in effective green technology invention patents and establish an international green technology concept verification center [1]. - The administrative office area has achieved 100% green electricity supply, and a new energy system experimental base has been established [2]. Group 2: Green Industry Development - The urban sub-center will support the development of over 300 green enterprises and establish a green industry cluster [1]. - The focus will be on cultivating specialized green industries, including carbon professional services and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) services, to create a carbon market ecosystem and attract international ESG rating agencies [3]. Group 3: Investment and Future Energy - The sub-center will foster green investment and support the development of various green industry investment institutions, particularly in future energy sectors such as superconducting materials and vacuum systems [4]. - There will be an emphasis on enhancing existing green industries, including ecological environment protection and pollution control, as well as the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies [4]. Group 4: Smart and Connected Vehicles - The urban sub-center will enhance the smart connected new energy vehicle industry, focusing on vehicle electronics and core components to create a comprehensive supply system [5]. - The aim is to attract low-carbon, ultra-low energy consumption, and nearly zero energy consumption building enterprises to strengthen the green construction industry [5].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the service industry is a key component of China's opening-up strategy and an important support for economic development, with foreign investment in the service sector expected to account for about 70% of the total foreign investment in 2024, and service trade surpassing $1 trillion for the first time [1][6] Group 1: Service Industry Opening-Up - The service industry has become the focus of high-level opening-up in China, with a continuous expansion of the scope and level of openness through institutional and autonomous measures [2][3] - The establishment of a negative list management model for foreign investment in the service sector has been implemented nationwide, enhancing the transparency and efficiency of market access [3][4] - The reduction of special management measures for foreign investment in the service sector has significantly decreased from 95 to 22, with a 76.8% reduction, particularly in finance and real estate [4] Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - The 2024 pilot program for expanding foreign investment in value-added telecommunications services has removed foreign ownership restrictions in several major cities, facilitating greater foreign participation [5][6] - The healthcare sector is being prioritized for opening-up, with policies allowing foreign investment in hospitals and medical services, aiming to improve service quality and fill gaps in high-end medical resources [13][14] - The financial sector has seen the complete removal of foreign ownership limits across various financial services, promoting a more inclusive and competitive environment for foreign financial institutions [18][19] Group 3: Achievements and Future Directions - The number of foreign-funded telecommunications companies has increased significantly, with over 2,400 foreign firms operating in the sector, reflecting a 26.5% year-on-year growth [9][10] - The financial market has expanded to include over 1,160 foreign institutions in the bond market, with a total bond holding of 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating a robust integration of foreign capital [20][21] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing the regulatory framework, improving the business environment, and ensuring a balance between openness and security in the financial sector [22]

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2024, the average annual salary for urban non-private sector employees is 124,000 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.8 percentage points since 2021, now at a growth rate of 2.8%[3] - Employment is shifting from high-salary industries to sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, indicating a trend towards "anti-involution" since 2021[4] - The transportation and service industries have seen a reduction in weekly working hours by 4.2 and 3.6 hours respectively, while hourly wages increased by 3.9 and 3.6 yuan/hour, suggesting improved job attractiveness[4] Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence - From 2019 to 2023, the wage growth in the eastern region was 7.5%, compared to 7.1% in the central and western regions, with the gap narrowing from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2023[5] - The wage growth in the central and western regions has shown resilience, with the central region's wage growth remaining stable at around 7.1%[5] - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating to the central and western regions, with the proportion of employees in accommodation and retail sectors decreasing from 20.8 and 10.1 percentage points below the eastern region to 18.2 and 9 percentage points respectively[6] Group 3: Private and Flexible Employment - The average salary growth for private sector employees is lower than that of non-private sector employees, but certain sectors like education and retail services have seen higher growth rates of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively[7] - The concentration of small and medium enterprises in the service sector has led to better salary growth in private units compared to non-private units[10] - New flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, have higher average monthly salaries of 10,506 yuan, significantly above traditional employees' 8,910 yuan, despite longer working hours[10]

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 2024年城镇就业人员的工资数据新鲜出炉，哪些领域在"涨薪"、哪些领域"反内卷"？工资数据背后，有 何就业"新趋势"？本文梳理，供参考。 趋势一：就业从"追求高薪"转向"反内卷"。 2024年，城镇非私营单位的平均工资增速放缓，但交运、轻工纺服等行业工资得益于营收增长的直接拉 动，仍保持较高增速。 城镇非私营单位就业人员的年均工资增速自2021年回落6.8pct，目前降至2.8%。 但交运、皮革制鞋、服装等行业工资增速分别较2021年回落4.8、上行21.8、15.6pct。行业工资表现较 好，更多是营收的直接拉动，譬如2024年交运业的营收增速超8%。 不同于2019年前就业人员向"高薪"行业集中，2021年后就业更多向工作时间短、时薪高的行业迁移，就 业倾向"反内卷"。 2015-2019年年均工资较高的金融、信息技术服务业的就业占比上行0.6、1.3pct。而 2021年后就业向工作时长短的行业流入，且这些行业时薪"被动"提高；如2021-2023年，卫生业的周工作 时长减少1.5小时，时薪增加9.3元/小时，就业占比上行0.2pct。 目前交运、居民服 ...

Group 1 - Yunnan province is implementing various employment measures, including promoting return-to-hometown entrepreneurship, e-commerce startups, and leveraging特色产业 to create new employment channels and growth points [1][5] - The Yunnan provincial government has issued the "15 Measures" to support employment, focusing on enhancing industrial strength, enterprise growth, and employment stability [1][3] - The employment priority strategy aims to ensure at least 500,000 new urban jobs annually and maintain rural labor transfer employment at over 15 million [3][4] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Yunnan's employment monitoring showed 365,000 employees in 901 surveyed companies, with the wholesale and retail sector experiencing the highest reduction in employment at 1.16% [2] - The "Unemployment Insurance Policy" allows eligible companies to apply for unemployment insurance refunds, with large enterprises receiving 30% and small to medium enterprises receiving 60% of their contributions back [3][4] - The province plans to conduct over 1 million training sessions annually, with at least 500,000 being subsidized vocational skills training [4] Group 3 - The "Return-to-Hometown Entrepreneurship Measures" encourage young graduates to engage in e-commerce, fostering the development of e-commerce industry clusters and promoting high-quality employment [5][6] - The measures focus on highland特色农业, cultural tourism, and cross-border e-commerce, while also emphasizing the training of e-commerce skills [6] - A project library for e-commerce startups will be established, providing financial support and mentorship for promising projects, with annual selections of exemplary returnee entrepreneurs [6]